CBO updating Obamacares effects on jobs
 

From what I read on the actual report
http://cbo.gov/sites/default/files/c...utlook2014.pdf

This from page 117
The reduction in CBO?s projections of hours worked represents a decline in the number of full-time-equivalent workers of about 2.0 million in 2017, rising to about 2.5 million in 2024.

They talk about how the economy is not going to get much better the way things are going and how because of Obamacare, people are just going to stop working. The labor force participation rate is going to continue to drop and economic growth will be stagnate.

Now wasn't it promised that it was going to create jobs?

More Affordable Care Act reports from the CBO...

http://thinkprogress.org/health/2014...ers-obamacare/

Cherries are made for picking!

LOL
I said less people will be working, they agree. What Cherry picking?

Affordable Care Act critics were quick to pick up on a statistic in the new report finding that the health law will cause a reduction in the labor force that amounts to a decline of about two million full-time jobs by 2017. But anything more than a cursory look at the report shows that this is actually a benefit of the ACA.

In fact, the CBO researchers explicitly state that, “[t]he estimated reduction [in labor] stems almost entirely from a net decline in the amount of labor that workers choose to supply, rather than from a net drop in businesses’ demand for labor.” That means Americans won’t necessarily be losing their jobs or being shut out of the job market because of Obamacare. Rather, the health law will give millions of people — particularly elderly Americans who haven’t reached the Medicare eligibility age — affordable options for health coverage without shackling them to a job they may not want.

The report goes on to say that “there is no compelling evidence that part-time employment has increased as a result of ACA.” The economic data from the last several years supports that notion.

Are you quoting the AP or LA times?

I got my info from the CBO
And on page 122 of the report, it address's the issue of less hiring full time employment and moving in more part time

Most of the older people I know WANT to work. They miss the social aspect of it and the feeling of worth.

Here in Vegas at the Station Casinos they hire lots of the "elderly".
None of them that I talk to are working there because of "health care". They are working there because they enjoy it and have fun talking to people and interacting as opposed to sitting in a nursing home waiting to die.

Why do people think that other people are only worried about "health care".
Most people don't give it a single thought in their day to day lives (not talking about folks who have ongoing health issues...they are a tiny percentage).

If you ask the average guy why he works the job he is working...I'd bet you the LAST thing he would tell you is because of "health care".
It's more like he is worried about paying the rent, getting some groceries, and maybe a beer on the weekend.

I see older people working and think they work because it gives them purpose, not just a paycheck. It keeps them going, up and dressed each day and not dying a slow death.
My mother works way harder than I want to at that age, but if she stopped, I know her health would suffer. And that is not what the goals are here , are they?

I know that I have zero desire to EVER "retire".

It seems like people who retire don't live as long as folks who continue on actively with their work.

Keeps them having a feeling of self-worth, provides friendships and camaraderie, and a purpose.
I couldn't imagine just one day stopping. :(

I'm gonna be like George Burns was, or like Stan Lee is today. Working.

I'm a big Stones fan...and I'm glad that they haven't decided to "retire" just because of their age. (I wonder if they are only still going because they "shackled" by health care concerns lol)

Here is their tour schedule RIGHT NOW:

February 21 - Abu Dhabi, du Arena, Yas Island
February 26 - Tokyo, Tokyo Dome
March 04 - Tokyo, Tokyo Dome
March 06 - Tokyo, Tokyo Dome
March 09 - Macau, CotaiArena
March 12 - Mercedes Benz Arena, Shanghai
March 15 - Sands Grand Ballroom, Singapore (Rumoured)
March 19 - Perth, Perth Arena
March 22 - Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
March 25 - Sydney, Allphones Arena
March 28 - Melbourne, Rod Laver Arena
March 30 - Macedon, Hanging Rock
April 02 - Brisbane, Brisbane Entertainment Centre
April 05 - Auckland, Mt. Smart Stadium

And they are all in their 70's.
Pretty sure that they have enough money to never work again EVER. But that's not what always motivates people to work.

I guess elitist faux-liberals don't understand that people aren't robots and aren't sheep.

I have a friend that runs a company with around 80 part-time/full-time employees. He went through a lot of trouble setting up a healthcare package that anyone could enroll in if they wanted to. To date, nobody has enrolled. He did this two years ago. Decent little package, too.

So true! :1orglaugh :1orglaugh :1orglaugh

Did anybody else notice that early yesterday the major media was reporting

"Obamacare will shrink the job market by 2 million jobs"

And by the afternoon they were saying
"Obamacare will cause many to work less hours in order to qualify for subsidies"

Is it just me or did the White House spin team get ahold of that yesterday?

or put another way, the government, by taking from the productive class and giving to the leech class, now allows the leech class to work less than they already do.

It isn't destroying jobs, people are just leaving the workforce since they no longer need that job.

So like if you are just working to keep your healthcare.

Let's think about this for a moment here.... More people signed up for healthcare, but they'll need less people to run it?

Oddly enough there is still a massive shortage for nurses here in California.

Anyway, this isn't getting rid of any jobs. It is basically giving more options to people that are forced to work to maintain their healthcare. It is actually going to reduce the workforce size which could actually lead to HIGHER wages.

No one is prevented from working and continuing to work.

This news is only relevant on a longer term macro economic standpoint.

From the stats I've heard, the workforce is already greatly reduced.
And getting smaller everyday. Which means the tax base is reduced. Which also means the economy can't "recover" because people don't have jobs and money to spend. They are "taking" instead of contributing in much larger numbers. :(

Absolutely true, but who is to blame?

As long as multinational corporations are allowed to shit all over America, this will not change.

Corporations who are allowed to hide all of their earnings offshore, while benefitting 100% from the lopsided tax laws that THEY THEMSELVES have paid our politicians to create, are not paying their fair share. They are not hiring American workers. They are not penalized in any way for outsourcing.

The job rut did not start under Obama, and he has actually done a decent job of reversing the dismal course W left us with. which didn't start with W either.

As long as Obama, the Republicans, and the Democrats in elected office, are allowed to prioritize the interests of billionaires, big oil, and big pharma, and war mongers OVER the interests of the American people, this is the world we live in.

Why don't any of the "news" reporters ask people like John Boehner why they are allowed to invest in all of the companies that stand to make a killing off of the Keystone Pipeline, while simultaneously spewing out lies about how it will benefit regular Americans?

When major "news" corporations take advertiser money from Big Oil, Gas, and Coal, can they really dole out UNBIASED information regarding alternative energy solutions?

I'm happy to debate and argue, but to debate and argue amongst ourselves only serves to deflect blame from the true leaders of the world, who give not a shit, about you and me.

"The Tax Code is now about four million words, nearly as long as seven versions of War and Peace or the novel version of Les Miserables and just under four times the number of words in all of the Harry Potter books put together."

This huge volume of incomprehensible bull-shit isn't about who owes taxes, it's all about who doesn't owe taxes. 99% is loopholes from corporate lobbyists seeking lower taxes for corporate clients.

If the average citizen can't read and comprehend what he owes he shouldn't have to pay. No reason the code can't be a dozen understandable pages with a fair amount paid by everyone, privately and corporately.

http://s28.postimg.org/cyygd7919/tax...ral_tax_re.png


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Or it could force companies into further automation, which would make an even bigger punch to the tax base, which would hurt the overall "we need the working to pay for health insurance" idea.

Let's throw out some more "could's" while we're at it!

You are now arguing that only the smart and productive should pay taxes. LOL.

What would your taxes be in that arrangement?

So what you're saying you want "change" I remember someone promising that!

In the mean time, the CBO is blaming the ACA for a reduced workforce, something that has been getting smaller and smaller since 2000. The current administration has done nothing to fix that, it is in no way a good thing for our economy or our tax base. If the population is growing and the workforce is getting smaller, our economy is going to suffer.
Which is why the outlook for our economy is bad!

No, what I'm saying is someone like me can't even figure out what he owes without paying an accountant to do the work for him. And when that "certified" accountant makes a mistake the IRS charges me a penalty with interest and the accountant just shrugs his shoulders.

The majority of people paying taxes have no idea what they are paying they just pay.


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I don't think they'll need less people by any standard

If more people have health insurance, they will of course use it.

You think there is a shortage of Nurses NOW?

Once again, I don't think Vendzilla even read what he posted. This report is about the Federal Budget, not jobs.

First real text says....

The federal budget deficit has fallen sharply during the past few years, and it is on a path to decline further this year and next year. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that under current law, the deficit will total $514 billion in fiscal year 2014, compared with $1.4 trillion in 2009. At that level, this year?s deficit would equal 3.0 percent of the nation?s economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP)?close to the average percentage of GDP seen during the past 40 years.

This is good, right?

Later on it gives unemployment projections.... (page 6)
2014: 6.7% (spot on really)
2015: 6.3%
2016: 6.0%
2017: 5.8%
2018: 5.5%

So according to this report, There will be a 1% reduction in the average amount of hours worked, but unemployment will continue to fall.

So all is well with the world even though the Republicans will search through a 200 page report and pull out one minor issue.

My lord this gets old.

That's not exactly what I said, but it was part of it, I suppose.

Anyway, here's Newt, to properly interpret it all for you...



https://youtube.com/watch?v=BagYRDEFvy0

Richard, you didn't read the OP
I gave a quote from the new report from page 117, you are going on about something else on the report

And yes the unemployment rate will drop as the work force gets smaller, that's a given and it's not a good thing. Tax base gets smaller, that means more taxes on those that work or a bigger deficit.

or we could fix it with a flat tax down to the first dollar you earn. :winkwink:

What the hell was that? LOL

And yes that was EXACTLY what you said and I agree with you.
But when a politician tells you he is going to CHANGE that, do you really believe him?

A flat tax and also a national sales tax on some items. This will collect money from the growing off the books economy.

Okay, here's the new one page Flat Tax system I propose. You tell me if you are for it or against it...

Everyone is taxed 35% off the top of their paycheck, across the board.

$35 on $100 and $350,000,000 on three billion.

This money is used to pay for infrastructure, education, technological research, Social Security, and FREE HEALTHCARE FOR ALL. This will eliminate all businesses who use the bullshit excuse of not hiring due to healthcare costs.

Then all states are allowed a 10% state tax on all goods sold (except food and clothing) which would be used to update our energy grid, and give subsidies for all technological developments that ween us off of fossil fuels.

Property taxes should be taxed at .01% of your propertie's current value, with no exceptions.

A house worth $250,000 would be taxed at $2,500 p/year, and so on.

This money would go towards community services, emergencies, and improvements.

NO INCOME is tax exempt or tax reduced, including capital gains.

NO INCOME can be off-shored, or hidden.

Corporations that do ANY business in America are taxed 20% of annual net profits - not gross, net.

How about that, for a start - all on one page.

Nope. The government doesn't need more than 15% of our income.
federal government should have zero say on property taxes
othrwise, you're ok

And to create jobs, you would of course have to compete globally for them by reducing the corp tax rate to zero for those companies with say 60%, 70% somewhere in there, of their workforce in the US.

Again, what you don't understand, is the reduced workforce is because people are voluntarily leaving the workforce BECAUSE the ACA benefited them. These are people that are forced to work to maintain their healthcare

Sly if the option is pay people shit or automate, well, they are gonna automate sooner or later anyway...

Vendzilla there is no way all this shit won't benefit you. But it might hurt a few billionaires. I'm sure they are touched by you caring.

flat tax is regressive as fuck.

In order to create jobs we need to innovate. We need to invest in BIG technological advances and education. We also need to de-incentivize the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs, and labor.

You can't have a country full of idiots ruled by a handful of billionaires who have no interest in the betterment of mankind.

or, raising the standard everywhere

The way the politicians want to carve it out, you are 100% correct.

If it were written for the 99% instead of the 1% however, it could work.

On the point of people working for healtcare, I actually have known a few.

A friend of mine works for himself. He does various computer consulting jobs for various clients. He could purchase his own health insurance, but instead his wife works about 25-30 hours a week at the company she has worked at for years. She has said outright that the only reason she is working is because they have kick ass health insurance.

Another example is a woman I used to work with. She was from the Philippines and had been living in the US for several years and just recently became a citizen (this was many years ago long before Obamacare). Back in the Philippines she had a small amount of fame stemming from some modeling jobs she had done earlier and being a runner up in the Miss Philippines pageant. A few times per year she would fly back and shoot a commercial or make an appearance for extra money. Her husband worked for himself and she said the only reason she was working was so they could get good health insurance (I have no way of knowing if either of them had pre-existing issues).

I also know my mom stayed at a job she didn't like because of the health insurance. This was when I was young. I have asthma and she needed to make sure I was covered.

I think it is a little more common than some people might think.

Flat tax is fair as fuck. No one should be allowed to vote AND get a free ride