Mutt

If you were starting a new paysite today, high quality hardcore exclusive content, what would be a realistic number of members to be at a year later?

Don't reply with 'how long is a piece of string?' I'm not talking about some outlier of a unique paysite, the way X-Art was when it went hardcore, I'm talking about a paysite with content that is really good, appeals to a wide audience but not 'wow i never saw a site like that'.

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fappingJack

Prolly a hundred or so for starters?

Barefootsies

JT could probably answer this for you since he had just done exactly that in the past year or so.

The main difference however would be his knowledge of tubes and traffic versus what someone else may know who did not come from that background. However, I would suspect the number to be somewhere between a Porn Nerd and a JT on the numbers.

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Enough Said.

"Would you rather live like a king for a year or like a prince forever?"

makeabuck

100 after a year?

Captain Kawaii

2-3k if you rape the landscape.

The Porn Nerd

Not to sound like a lawyer here Mutt but....it depends. On what? Traffic, promotion, how hard you work the site, etc.

But let's say you have a good paysite, as you described, and have your traffic ducks in a row. I break it down to a daily or weekly number. For me the goal is always 5 sales to start but I am a small company so perhaps someone else's goal would be much more.

It also depends on the type of membership you offer. I do one-time only Memberships as well as rebills but if you did JUST rebills then by year's end the rebills would be much higher (perhaps the chargebacks would be, too).

But in the end it really comes down to how much traffic you can get and your conversion rate. Five sales a day - or twenty or more - might be shitty if you're throwing tens of thousands of hits to it. But five sales a day might be wonderful if you're throwing 2K hits.

So yeah, got lawyer up here and say it really does depend.

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AmeliaG

I really wish the billers would chime in for these threads.

There was one biller years and years ago who accidentally emailed me a spreadsheet of how their customers were doing, instead of a spreadsheet of their volume discounts.

I was shocked at the numbers because I thought I was doing okay, but not at all near potential, only most of their clients were pulling in waaaaaay less than my okay numbers. At the same time, there were some model-run sites which were always crying poor and asking people to give them free content/design/hosting/etc. and they were doing okay.

That was just a small sample, but it really underlined for me that perception without hard numbers allows only very fuzzy forecasting.

For example, a lot of people perceive Vivid as really big, but the professional financial services estimate their gross at only $5 million a year. These are educated estimates, but Vivid is a private company, so I wouldn't take that as 100% definite.

Most pay sites are owned by private companies, so it is hard to find comparables. Paysite owners can make educated guesses, but extrapolating from a very limited data set.

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AmateurBros

That's kind of like me blind folding you and then putting a massive jar of jelly beans in front of you and asking how many are in the jar. Too many factors to even really guess.

If everything is done as properly as can be, a couple thousand would be a nice number to shoot for.

AmateurBros

Vivid's annual revenue is estimated at $100mil. Your "educated estimate" is only $95mil off.

The Porn Nerd

Where did you get that number?
No way Vivid is worth 100 Mil LOL.

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SmutHammer

Have you been there?

AmateurBros

Forbes / Wikipedia

The Porn Nerd

Well there ya go, must be right.
I'm sure Vivid pulls in 2 mil a week.

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AmateurBros

Pretty confident Forbes doesn't just pull numbers out of their ass lol

ITraffic

those numbers look like they are from 2005.

Best-In-BC

Where's pseudo ? Im sure he knows ;)

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Pseudonymous

No I don't, and the only active poster on this board that i can think of who would know, wouldnt' share the information either.

I assume a couple thousand, same estimation as other people have already mentioned

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American Psycho

You and Amelia are two amazing minds at work. Lol

Vivid one of the biggest brands in adult @ 5million. Omfg.

They made at least that from the Kim k vid for a few years

The Porn Nerd

Yes but is that 2015? No effin' way is what I am saying.

What content producer is worth 100 mil these days? Come on now.

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American Psycho

As everyone said ots and impossible question really.

So here's a stupid amswer...
From 0 to a million.

Pseudonymous

Its not an impossible question. Not at all, its a very simple question with a simple answer. Simple for those who know

He meant a new top adult hardcore site, with competent marketers. Its not 0 or a million

Thats like if somebody started a thread and asked what could i make with a top new solo site in 2015, i could give them a very very accurate number.

Why is it different with hardcore?

The difference you see in sizes is due to a lack of marketing or a lack of an exclusive top product. Or the usual, people working with a small budget, not nearly big enough to get close to the ceiling of hardcore paysites

Hes just asking what top successful new sites are pulling in for members, roughly.

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SmutHammer

Do a little research, Check out how much the porn industry pulls in per year, where it comes from and see if vivid is involved. I'll save you the time the answer is yes.

Hotel rental sales for one is a major money maker that many people don't ever even think of.

billywatson

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billywatson

Uh huh. How many people do you really think are shelling out $29.95 for 24 hours of censored smut on their hotel TV, only to be faced by the clerk at check out time?

Or do they use the free wireless in the room to find their favorite tube site?

Time to think 2015 and not 2005.

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SmutHammer

Just naming other ways companies make money that people overlook. I agree with you on this, but I'm sure more people are paying for them than you think though.

American Psycho

No pseudo this is what he's asking.
he's asking about STARTING NEW PAYSITE TODAY.

"If you were starting a new paysite today, high quality hardcore exclusive content, what would be a realistic number of members to be at a year later?"

And that is impossible to answer unless all the variables are clearly outlined amd even them its at best an estimate due to real life bs and intangibles.

Hosting? Does he pick a shit host t always down or hacked?
who's shooting it? It is good or meh or best ever?
marketing is endless pit of changing variables?
management?
Staff/contractor on point with delegated tasks or he gets robbed by shady webmaster or designer?
is your manager embezzling or spending frivolously?
does your office get hit and destroyed by a plane flying into the world trade towers? I say that cause it shut down a startupn I was working on.
Etc etc etc etc

Hes not asking a specific enough question and even if he did its still a guess to answer it.

Fact is most big startups fail even with millions in funding and top talent amd theres a reason for that. Its because its nearly impossible to answer.

And hes likely asking about starting a small biz with a bunch of yahoos on a realitively minimal budget.

Bang bros and the huge brands start sites or networks then stop them cause they dont work out for any number of reasons.so they cant answer that but you can?

Hmmmm

The Porn Nerd

Not to sound like Paul Markham - tho maybe he would take the alternate view anyway - but it's all about traffic. Content yes yada yada. But if we're talking major numbers with paysites then we are talking major traffic and very high conversions.

So what is a lot of traffic? There's not a paysite out there that gets even 100K a day in unique visitors. So let's say half and the paysite gets 50k in daily uniques. With a conversion ratio of 1:500 (super good these days) that would be 100 Joins a day (not counting rebills).

So 2800 a month. Fuck, let's even it out to 3k.

3,000 Members paying...what price point? That makes a difference so I will just pick a common one... x $24.95 (round it off to 25 bucks) for a total of: $75,000 a month x 12....so: $900,000 a year. Again, this is just Joins, not rebills. (Also not counting 3 and 6 month, and yearly, Memberships. Ay yi yi!)

OK so how many paysites are raking in $1 mil+ a year? CAN you get 50k a day in unique visitors and convert them at 1:500 (and keep them long enough to rebill)?

So many factors. Adjust accordingly. LOL

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Pseudonymous

Sorry I guess its more clear to me as I know Mutt, i know what lead to him asking the question and i know what hes trying to get answered. guess he left a few things implied that some people took differently. But he was asking for the reasons i mentioned and the question is as simple as i said. So try answering with what i mentioned in mind

Its not impossible to answer. You are answering what a new company will make in 2015, hes asking what a new startup who does everything right and has awesome hardcore content should aim for in 2015. completely different. like i said, now that you know what he means, you can give him a better answer most likely

"And hes likely asking about starting a small biz with a bunch of yahoos on a realitively minimal budget."

Not sure why you'd say that given the thread creator

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American Psycho

Nerd thats an amazingly inaccurate guess.

Theres his answer. Lol

And yes some paysite get 100k uniques daily.

myleene

Why don't you work it the other way around? How much would you need to break even?

(*) All provided numbers are an estimate to give a general idea and may change a lot depending on location, experience and your skillset.

1) You would need minimum 20 scenes before opening (which you mentioned as high quality)
a) You shoot yourself without extra: 500$ x 20 = 10000$
b) You don't shoot yourself or pay extras: 1000$ x 20 = 20000$

2) New scenes (you mentioned always exclusive and high quality) (monthly)
a) You shoot yourself without extra: 500$ x 4 = 2000$
b) You don't shoot yourself or pay extras: 1000$ x 4 = 4000$

3) Hosting (monthly)
a) unmanaged: 50$
b) semi-managed: 150$
c) managed: 450$

4) Content update (edit, produce and publish) (monthly)
a) Yourself: Free
b) Edit/Produce or Publish by someone else: 400$/800$
c) All done by someone else: 800$/1600$

5) Website design and general design (monthly)
a) Yourself: Free
b) Mid-range: 400$
c) Mid-range: 800$

6) Billing (monthly) (the choice will have an effect on your final profit %)
a) Third-party with Visa/MC: 100$
b) Your own billing account: Free

7) Other partnerships (content trade, hardlinks, program partnership, etc.) (monthly)
a) None or trades without expenses: Free
b) Some: 200$
c) A lot: 500$

8) Other general expenses (lawyer, scripts, themes, cms, tools, domain names, etc.) (monthly)
a) Minimal: 50$
b) Some: 100$
c) A lot: 250$+

9) Traffic (monthly)
a) In-house + affiliates: Free
b) Some bought: 100$
c) A lot bought: 500$+


Answer these, calculate your monthly expenses, calculate your # of required member to break even then ask your question again. At the moment there are way to many unknowns. Adjust all numbers to your closest expectations and you'll have a good overview.

Then answer these:

10) Will it be part of an existing program
a) Yes: More sales
b) No: Less sales

11) What ratio do you expect
a) 1:500
b) 1:1000
c) 1:2500
d) Other (specify)

American Psycho

Ok then please answer him if yoy know more of what he's asking.
Im curious to hear your estimate and how you got to it.

American Psycho

This was a chuckle.
good effort but still a chuckle

Pseudonymous

I already did answer, i said i dont know what the top new hardcore sites are making as they keep a lid on things. I can look at their public traffic numbers (which are rough estimates) and then make as assumption of what theyre converting at based on the content and their marketing avenues. And come to a number that wouldn't be insanely far off but i think hes seeking out answers from people who might have a better idea of what numbers sites like JT's, Blacked.Com, etc are getting, like the owners themselves or somebody else in the know

Because those are the most recent sites that have top content and are being marketed and managed properly

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American Psycho

So he's asking what blacked.com or ruc has as members base?
But thats not what he asked. Its Very very different than what he ask which is about a new startup porn site with harcore content which btw means nothing in a world of niches ie blacked ir content or JT / RUC fake taxe CONCEPTS And tube connections

Pseudonymous

Those sites exactly? No. I was giving examples of new sites that are successful.

And yes it is what he was asking. He was asking what a new site should aim for in 2015, if its got great content.. and it was implied that it was run properly and the person didn't screw up doing something stupid like scenarios you mentioned

i dont know why you dont think thats what he was asking. im talking to him, i know what he was asking for and i read his post and i gathered that also.

and i do think sites like faketaxi, blacked can give you an idea, but if you would like better examples, how about wowgirls who is pulling in good money? you think the difference between those member bases is that diff just because ones got a taxi (instead of a bus) and the other has black guys in it? will it help with conversions? yes. but non niche gets a wider audience. but i dont think what they shoudl aim for in 2015 in terms of a member base is all that diff. Its definitely not apples and oranges like youre trying to claim. Youre making it sound like one is capable of 3000 while the other is capable of 500 in 2015. I suspect all those sites i mentioned have thousands of members, in the same ballpark or will at the same point in each of their sites lifetime ( i say that because rebills help build up member bases and blacked is obviously much newer than wowgirls)

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American Psycho

Actually he said the exact opposite of what u just said he said. Lols
HE SAID
"appeals to a wide audience but NOT 'wow i never saw a site like that"

Pseudonymous

yeah i fixed that quickly, misread that part. doesn't change my point. i believe his question has an easy answer if you knew what the numbers were of a handful of successful hardcore sites in 2015. the thing is, people do not, especially not the average gfyer

I can find out the traffic levels of sites, then find out the average conversion rate/rebill rate from talking to a few owners, then use that conversion ratio on traffic data that is publically available and get a rough estimate of member bases. then do that with a handful of successful sites over the past 2 years. and could come up with a number, but i dont have the time or care to, i still say a couple thousand wouldnt be far off of what you should aim for. Big softcore solo sites can do about 500 members, i know of hardcore solo girls that have 1000 members, a good multi girl hardcore site with a good budget is definitely capable of having over 2,000 in 2015 if ran properly.

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American Psycho

So he's asking an average of what x# of top sites make?

Anyways...this is getting silly.

The question he asked is really difficult if not impossible to answern , he even ackniwledged it in the post and now with your morphing inside info you confuddled it even more.

But if you take a member count out of the equation I would say his generic non wow hardcore content site will fail in this market as a startup BUSINESS.

American Psycho

But then again if he's getting content for free from bootlegged dvds then it will likely be profitable. Lol

AmeliaG

I didn't make that estimate.

Teams of financial analysts made that estimate for a professional finance tool which costs $25,000 for a membership.

My point is that it is very difficult to estimate what private companies are doing.

What do you base your estimate of $5 mill annually for a single video on?

I know this is GFY, but, if this is to be a useful thread, you need to say how you derived your numbers estimate.

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American Psycho

Kim Kardashian's Sex Tape Worth $30 Million?!

Amelia I have no stats backup it was off the cuff but im also not a dodo so yea I know it made a lot of $$$$ and vivid makes a lot more than 5m

American Psycho

Kim Kardashian's Sex Tape Worth $30 Million?!

Amelia I have no stats backup it was off the cuff but im also not a dodo so yea I know it made a lot of $$$$ and vivid makes a lot more than 5m

AmeliaG

Good grief. Do you seriously have zero idea who Mutt is?

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American Psycho

I know who he is.

AmeliaG

Your link is to a celeb gossip site. The article says Hirsch would open negotiations at a high number if someone wanted the sex vid.

Let's say Hirsch's PR estimate of lifetime $30 mill for the Kim K estimate was not inflated. What is $30 million divided by 8 years on sale? Does that really seem like $5 mill a year for just that one video?

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American Psycho

Did you read my last post? I have not stats It was off the cuff , i was just illustrating that 5m revenue for vivid is absolutely naive.

I guess u still dont see that.

Your last post pretty much confirms it. Anyways
...

Im leaving this episode of are you smarter than a second grader

Roald

Really?

....

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AmeliaG

My point, once again, is that it is challenging to have accurate stats on private companies.

People with serious finance backgrounds think Vivid does $5 mill a year. Marriott and similar companies are publicly traded, so financial analysts may or may not have good data on how much Vivid makes on hotel video. They may have some info from interviews with key stakeholders. But how close are their numbers?

At the end of the day, I know that I don't know, although I can make educated guesses.

It is unfortunate you don't know that you don't know.

It is unfortunate that you like to tell people they will fail, at the same time you believe gossip sites are good sources for finance data.

It is unfortunate that it makes you angry that Mutt is trying to do educated forecasting.

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Mutt

No real answers unfortunately, had some hope somebody with loose lips might chime in

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Shap

This is my gut reply (no numbers to support it).

I'm assuming the following...
Good members area that retains well.
Good content that has a sales appeal and converts
A modest budget for acquiring traffic/affiliates (ie whatever the site makes can be re-invested but not much money above and beyond that so no $100,000 a month ad budget).

First month or two you should be able to easily get 10 signups a day.
Months 3 to 6 you should be working your way towards a steady 25 a day average.

If you get to the 25 a day average then you should be able to scale up and hit 40 to 50 a day before year end.

With those targets you would probably hit 1000 active members around Month 7 or 8. Maybe close out the year approaching or hitting 2000 active members.