How many members is a realistic goal for a high quality paysite these days?

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  • Mutt
    Too lazy to set a custom title
    • Sep 2002
    • 34431
    #1

    How many members is a realistic goal for a high quality paysite these days?

    If you were starting a new paysite today, high quality hardcore exclusive content, what would be a realistic number of members to be at a year later?

    Don't reply with 'how long is a piece of string?' I'm not talking about some outlier of a unique paysite, the way X-Art was when it went hardcore, I'm talking about a paysite with content that is really good, appeals to a wide audience but not 'wow i never saw a site like that'.
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    • fappingJack
      So Fucking Banned
      • Dec 2014
      • 2172
      #2
      Prolly a hundred or so for starters?

        Comment

        • Barefootsies
          Choice is an Illusion
          • Feb 2005
          • 42635
          #3
          JT could probably answer this for you since he had just done exactly that in the past year or so.

          The main difference however would be his knowledge of tubes and traffic versus what someone else may know who did not come from that background. However, I would suspect the number to be somewhere between a Porn Nerd and a JT on the numbers.

          Should You Email Your Members?

          Link1 | Link2 | Link3

          Enough Said.

          "Would you rather live like a king for a year or like a prince forever?"

            Comment

            • makeabuck
              Confirmed User
              • Feb 2013
              • 629
              #4
              Originally posted by fappingJack
              Prolly a hundred or so for starters?

              100 after a year?

                Comment

                • Captain Kawaii
                  So Fucking Banned
                  • Oct 2007
                  • 6748
                  #5
                  2-3k if you rape the landscape.

                    Comment

                    • The Porn Nerd
                      Living The Dream
                      • Jun 2009
                      • 19787
                      #6
                      Not to sound like a lawyer here Mutt but....it depends. On what? Traffic, promotion, how hard you work the site, etc.

                      But let's say you have a good paysite, as you described, and have your traffic ducks in a row. I break it down to a daily or weekly number. For me the goal is always 5 sales to start but I am a small company so perhaps someone else's goal would be much more.

                      It also depends on the type of membership you offer. I do one-time only Memberships as well as rebills but if you did JUST rebills then by year's end the rebills would be much higher (perhaps the chargebacks would be, too).

                      But in the end it really comes down to how much traffic you can get and your conversion rate. Five sales a day - or twenty or more - might be shitty if you're throwing tens of thousands of hits to it. But five sales a day might be wonderful if you're throwing 2K hits.

                      So yeah, got lawyer up here and say it really does depend.
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                        Comment

                        • AmeliaG
                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                          • Jan 2003
                          • 10663
                          #7
                          I really wish the billers would chime in for these threads.

                          There was one biller years and years ago who accidentally emailed me a spreadsheet of how their customers were doing, instead of a spreadsheet of their volume discounts.

                          I was shocked at the numbers because I thought I was doing okay, but not at all near potential, only most of their clients were pulling in waaaaaay less than my okay numbers. At the same time, there were some model-run sites which were always crying poor and asking people to give them free content/design/hosting/etc. and they were doing okay.

                          That was just a small sample, but it really underlined for me that perception without hard numbers allows only very fuzzy forecasting.

                          For example, a lot of people perceive Vivid as really big, but the professional financial services estimate their gross at only $5 million a year. These are educated estimates, but Vivid is a private company, so I wouldn't take that as 100% definite.

                          Most pay sites are owned by private companies, so it is hard to find comparables. Paysite owners can make educated guesses, but extrapolating from a very limited data set.
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                            Comment

                            • AmateurBros
                              Confirmed User
                              • Jan 2015
                              • 399
                              #8
                              That's kind of like me blind folding you and then putting a massive jar of jelly beans in front of you and asking how many are in the jar. Too many factors to even really guess.

                              If everything is done as properly as can be, a couple thousand would be a nice number to shoot for.
                              Email: amateurbros(a)gmail.com
                              ICQ: 698-715-421

                                Comment

                                • AmateurBros
                                  Confirmed User
                                  • Jan 2015
                                  • 399
                                  #9
                                  Originally posted by AmeliaG
                                  For example, a lot of people perceive Vivid as really big, but the professional financial services estimate their gross at only $5 million a year. These are educated estimates, but Vivid is a private company, so I wouldn't take that as 100% definite.
                                  Vivid's annual revenue is estimated at $100mil. Your "educated estimate" is only $95mil off.
                                  Email: amateurbros(a)gmail.com
                                  ICQ: 698-715-421

                                    Comment

                                    • The Porn Nerd
                                      Living The Dream
                                      • Jun 2009
                                      • 19787
                                      #10
                                      Originally posted by AmateurBros
                                      Vivid's annual revenue is estimated at $100mil. Your "educated estimate" is only $95mil off.
                                      Where did you get that number?
                                      No way Vivid is worth 100 Mil LOL.
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                                        Comment

                                        • SmutHammer
                                          Confirmed User
                                          • Mar 2008
                                          • 4301
                                          #11
                                          Originally posted by The Porn Nerd
                                          Where did you get that number?
                                          No way Vivid is worth 100 Mil LOL.
                                          Have you been there?

                                            Comment

                                            • AmateurBros
                                              Confirmed User
                                              • Jan 2015
                                              • 399
                                              #12
                                              Originally posted by The Porn Nerd
                                              Where did you get that number?
                                              No way Vivid is worth 100 Mil LOL.
                                              Forbes / Wikipedia
                                              Email: amateurbros(a)gmail.com
                                              ICQ: 698-715-421

                                                Comment

                                                • The Porn Nerd
                                                  Living The Dream
                                                  • Jun 2009
                                                  • 19787
                                                  #13
                                                  Originally posted by AmateurBros
                                                  Forbes / Wikipedia
                                                  Well there ya go, must be right.
                                                  I'm sure Vivid pulls in 2 mil a week.
                                                  My Affiliate Programs:
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                                                  Over 90 paysites to promote!
                                                  Now on Teams: peabodymedia

                                                    Comment

                                                    • AmateurBros
                                                      Confirmed User
                                                      • Jan 2015
                                                      • 399
                                                      #14
                                                      Originally posted by The Porn Nerd
                                                      Well there ya go, must be right.
                                                      I'm sure Vivid pulls in 2 mil a week.
                                                      Pretty confident Forbes doesn't just pull numbers out of their ass lol
                                                      Email: amateurbros(a)gmail.com
                                                      ICQ: 698-715-421

                                                        Comment

                                                        • ITraffic
                                                          Confirmed User
                                                          • Jul 2013
                                                          • 2725
                                                          #15
                                                          those numbers look like they are from 2005.

                                                            Comment

                                                            • Best-In-BC
                                                              Confirmed User
                                                              • Jun 2002
                                                              • 9511
                                                              #16
                                                              Where's pseudo ? Im sure he knows ;)
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                                                                Comment

                                                                • Pseudonymous
                                                                  Photographer/Owner
                                                                  • Apr 2006
                                                                  • 2661
                                                                  #17
                                                                  Originally posted by Best-In-BC
                                                                  Where's pseudo ? Im sure he knows ;)
                                                                  No I don't, and the only active poster on this board that i can think of who would know, wouldnt' share the information either.

                                                                  I assume a couple thousand, same estimation as other people have already mentioned
                                                                  Previous owner of SoloRevenue
                                                                  Previous product manager @ Modelcentro.com/MCProfits.com, IsMyGirl.com, SMRevenue.com

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • American Psycho
                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                      • Feb 2009
                                                                      • 3068
                                                                      #18
                                                                      Originally posted by The Porn Nerd
                                                                      Where did you get that number?
                                                                      No way Vivid is worth 100 Mil LOL.
                                                                      You and Amelia are two amazing minds at work. Lol

                                                                      Vivid one of the biggest brands in adult @ 5million. Omfg.

                                                                      They made at least that from the Kim k vid for a few years

                                                                        Comment

                                                                        • The Porn Nerd
                                                                          Living The Dream
                                                                          • Jun 2009
                                                                          • 19787
                                                                          #19
                                                                          Originally posted by AmateurBros
                                                                          Pretty confident Forbes doesn't just pull numbers out of their ass lol
                                                                          Yes but is that 2015? No effin' way is what I am saying.

                                                                          What content producer is worth 100 mil these days? Come on now.
                                                                          My Affiliate Programs:
                                                                          Porn Nerd Cash | Porn Showcase | Aggressive Gold

                                                                          Over 90 paysites to promote!
                                                                          Now on Teams: peabodymedia

                                                                            Comment

                                                                            • American Psycho
                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                              • Feb 2009
                                                                              • 3068
                                                                              #20
                                                                              As everyone said ots and impossible question really.

                                                                              So here's a stupid amswer...
                                                                              From 0 to a million.

                                                                                Comment

                                                                                • Pseudonymous
                                                                                  Photographer/Owner
                                                                                  • Apr 2006
                                                                                  • 2661
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  Originally posted by American Psycho
                                                                                  As everyone said ots and impossible question really.

                                                                                  So here's a stupid amswer...
                                                                                  From 0 to a million.
                                                                                  Its not an impossible question. Not at all, its a very simple question with a simple answer. Simple for those who know

                                                                                  He meant a new top adult hardcore site, with competent marketers. Its not 0 or a million

                                                                                  Thats like if somebody started a thread and asked what could i make with a top new solo site in 2015, i could give them a very very accurate number.

                                                                                  Why is it different with hardcore?

                                                                                  The difference you see in sizes is due to a lack of marketing or a lack of an exclusive top product. Or the usual, people working with a small budget, not nearly big enough to get close to the ceiling of hardcore paysites

                                                                                  Hes just asking what top successful new sites are pulling in for members, roughly.
                                                                                  Previous owner of SoloRevenue
                                                                                  Previous product manager @ Modelcentro.com/MCProfits.com, IsMyGirl.com, SMRevenue.com

                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                    • SmutHammer
                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                      • Mar 2008
                                                                                      • 4301
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      Originally posted by The Porn Nerd
                                                                                      Yes but is that 2015? No effin' way is what I am saying.

                                                                                      What content producer is worth 100 mil these days? Come on now.
                                                                                      Do a little research, Check out how much the porn industry pulls in per year, where it comes from and see if vivid is involved. I'll save you the time the answer is yes.

                                                                                      Hotel rental sales for one is a major money maker that many people don't ever even think of.

                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                        • billywatson
                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                          • Aug 2002
                                                                                          • 3281
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          Originally posted by AmateurBros
                                                                                          Vivid's annual revenue is estimated at $100mil. Your "educated estimate" is only $95mil off.

                                                                                          I Shoot Porn.

                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                            • billywatson
                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                              • Aug 2002
                                                                                              • 3281
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              Originally posted by SmutHammer
                                                                                              Do a little research, Check out how much the porn industry pulls in per year, where it comes from and see if vivid is involved. I'll save you the time the answer is yes.

                                                                                              Hotel rental sales for one is a major money maker that many people don't ever even think of.
                                                                                              Uh huh. How many people do you really think are shelling out $29.95 for 24 hours of censored smut on their hotel TV, only to be faced by the clerk at check out time?

                                                                                              Or do they use the free wireless in the room to find their favorite tube site?

                                                                                              Time to think 2015 and not 2005.

                                                                                              I Shoot Porn.

                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                • SmutHammer
                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                  • Mar 2008
                                                                                                  • 4301
                                                                                                  #25
                                                                                                  Originally posted by billywatson
                                                                                                  Uh huh. How many people do you really think are shelling out $29.95 for 24 hours of censored smut on their hotel TV, only to be faced by the clerk at check out time?

                                                                                                  Or do they use the free wireless in the room to find their favorite tube site?

                                                                                                  Time to think 2015 and not 2005.
                                                                                                  Just naming other ways companies make money that people overlook. I agree with you on this, but I'm sure more people are paying for them than you think though.

                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                    • American Psycho
                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                      • Feb 2009
                                                                                                      • 3068
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      No pseudo this is what he's asking.
                                                                                                      he's asking about STARTING NEW PAYSITE TODAY.

                                                                                                      "If you were starting a new paysite today, high quality hardcore exclusive content, what would be a realistic number of members to be at a year later?"

                                                                                                      And that is impossible to answer unless all the variables are clearly outlined amd even them its at best an estimate due to real life bs and intangibles.

                                                                                                      Hosting? Does he pick a shit host t always down or hacked?
                                                                                                      who's shooting it? It is good or meh or best ever?
                                                                                                      marketing is endless pit of changing variables?
                                                                                                      management?
                                                                                                      Staff/contractor on point with delegated tasks or he gets robbed by shady webmaster or designer?
                                                                                                      is your manager embezzling or spending frivolously?
                                                                                                      does your office get hit and destroyed by a plane flying into the world trade towers? I say that cause it shut down a startupn I was working on.
                                                                                                      Etc etc etc etc

                                                                                                      Hes not asking a specific enough question and even if he did its still a guess to answer it.

                                                                                                      Fact is most big startups fail even with millions in funding and top talent amd theres a reason for that. Its because its nearly impossible to answer.

                                                                                                      And hes likely asking about starting a small biz with a bunch of yahoos on a realitively minimal budget.

                                                                                                      Bang bros and the huge brands start sites or networks then stop them cause they dont work out for any number of reasons.so they cant answer that but you can?

                                                                                                      Hmmmm

                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                        • The Porn Nerd
                                                                                                          Living The Dream
                                                                                                          • Jun 2009
                                                                                                          • 19787
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          Not to sound like Paul Markham - tho maybe he would take the alternate view anyway - but it's all about traffic. Content yes yada yada. But if we're talking major numbers with paysites then we are talking major traffic and very high conversions.

                                                                                                          So what is a lot of traffic? There's not a paysite out there that gets even 100K a day in unique visitors. So let's say half and the paysite gets 50k in daily uniques. With a conversion ratio of 1:500 (super good these days) that would be 100 Joins a day (not counting rebills).

                                                                                                          So 2800 a month. Fuck, let's even it out to 3k.

                                                                                                          3,000 Members paying...what price point? That makes a difference so I will just pick a common one... x $24.95 (round it off to 25 bucks) for a total of: $75,000 a month x 12....so: $900,000 a year. Again, this is just Joins, not rebills. (Also not counting 3 and 6 month, and yearly, Memberships. Ay yi yi!)

                                                                                                          OK so how many paysites are raking in $1 mil+ a year? CAN you get 50k a day in unique visitors and convert them at 1:500 (and keep them long enough to rebill)?

                                                                                                          So many factors. Adjust accordingly. LOL
                                                                                                          My Affiliate Programs:
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                                                                                                          Over 90 paysites to promote!
                                                                                                          Now on Teams: peabodymedia

                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                            • Pseudonymous
                                                                                                              Photographer/Owner
                                                                                                              • Apr 2006
                                                                                                              • 2661
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              Originally posted by American Psycho
                                                                                                              No pseudo this is what he's asking.
                                                                                                              he's asking about STARTING NEW PAYSITE TODAY.

                                                                                                              "If you were starting a new paysite today, high quality hardcore exclusive content, what would be a realistic number of members to be at a year later?"

                                                                                                              And that is impossible to answer unless all the variables are clearly outlined amd even them its at best an estimate due to real life bs and intangibles.

                                                                                                              Hosting? Does he pick a shit host t always down or hacked?
                                                                                                              who's shooting it? It is good or meh or best ever?
                                                                                                              marketing is endless pit of changing variables?
                                                                                                              management?
                                                                                                              Staff/contractor on point with delegated tasks or he gets robbed by shady webmaster or designer?
                                                                                                              is your manager embezzling or spending frivolously?
                                                                                                              does your office get hit and destroyed by a plane flying into the world trade towers? I say that cause it shut down a startupn I was working on.
                                                                                                              Etc etc etc etc

                                                                                                              Hes not asking a specific enough question and even if he did its still a guess to answer it.

                                                                                                              Fact is most big startups fail even with millions in funding and top talent amd theres a reason for that. Its because its nearly impossible to answer.

                                                                                                              And hes likely asking about starting a small biz with a bunch of yahoos on a realitively minimal budget.

                                                                                                              Bang bros and the huge brands start sites or networks then stop them cause they dont work out for any number of reasons.so they cant answer that but you can?

                                                                                                              Hmmmm
                                                                                                              Sorry I guess its more clear to me as I know Mutt, i know what lead to him asking the question and i know what hes trying to get answered. guess he left a few things implied that some people took differently. But he was asking for the reasons i mentioned and the question is as simple as i said. So try answering with what i mentioned in mind

                                                                                                              Its not impossible to answer. You are answering what a new company will make in 2015, hes asking what a new startup who does everything right and has awesome hardcore content should aim for in 2015. completely different. like i said, now that you know what he means, you can give him a better answer most likely

                                                                                                              "And hes likely asking about starting a small biz with a bunch of yahoos on a realitively minimal budget."

                                                                                                              Not sure why you'd say that given the thread creator
                                                                                                              Previous owner of SoloRevenue
                                                                                                              Previous product manager @ Modelcentro.com/MCProfits.com, IsMyGirl.com, SMRevenue.com

                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                • American Psycho
                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                  • Feb 2009
                                                                                                                  • 3068
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  Nerd thats an amazingly inaccurate guess.

                                                                                                                  Theres his answer. Lol

                                                                                                                  And yes some paysite get 100k uniques daily.

                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                    • myleene
                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                      • Oct 2013
                                                                                                                      • 906
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      Why don't you work it the other way around? How much would you need to break even?

                                                                                                                      (*) All provided numbers are an estimate to give a general idea and may change a lot depending on location, experience and your skillset.

                                                                                                                      1) You would need minimum 20 scenes before opening (which you mentioned as high quality)
                                                                                                                      a) You shoot yourself without extra: 500$ x 20 = 10000$
                                                                                                                      b) You don't shoot yourself or pay extras: 1000$ x 20 = 20000$

                                                                                                                      2) New scenes (you mentioned always exclusive and high quality) (monthly)
                                                                                                                      a) You shoot yourself without extra: 500$ x 4 = 2000$
                                                                                                                      b) You don't shoot yourself or pay extras: 1000$ x 4 = 4000$

                                                                                                                      3) Hosting (monthly)
                                                                                                                      a) unmanaged: 50$
                                                                                                                      b) semi-managed: 150$
                                                                                                                      c) managed: 450$

                                                                                                                      4) Content update (edit, produce and publish) (monthly)
                                                                                                                      a) Yourself: Free
                                                                                                                      b) Edit/Produce or Publish by someone else: 400$/800$
                                                                                                                      c) All done by someone else: 800$/1600$

                                                                                                                      5) Website design and general design (monthly)
                                                                                                                      a) Yourself: Free
                                                                                                                      b) Mid-range: 400$
                                                                                                                      c) Mid-range: 800$

                                                                                                                      6) Billing (monthly) (the choice will have an effect on your final profit %)
                                                                                                                      a) Third-party with Visa/MC: 100$
                                                                                                                      b) Your own billing account: Free

                                                                                                                      7) Other partnerships (content trade, hardlinks, program partnership, etc.) (monthly)
                                                                                                                      a) None or trades without expenses: Free
                                                                                                                      b) Some: 200$
                                                                                                                      c) A lot: 500$

                                                                                                                      8) Other general expenses (lawyer, scripts, themes, cms, tools, domain names, etc.) (monthly)
                                                                                                                      a) Minimal: 50$
                                                                                                                      b) Some: 100$
                                                                                                                      c) A lot: 250$+

                                                                                                                      9) Traffic (monthly)
                                                                                                                      a) In-house + affiliates: Free
                                                                                                                      b) Some bought: 100$
                                                                                                                      c) A lot bought: 500$+


                                                                                                                      Answer these, calculate your monthly expenses, calculate your # of required member to break even then ask your question again. At the moment there are way to many unknowns. Adjust all numbers to your closest expectations and you'll have a good overview.

                                                                                                                      Then answer these:

                                                                                                                      10) Will it be part of an existing program
                                                                                                                      a) Yes: More sales
                                                                                                                      b) No: Less sales

                                                                                                                      11) What ratio do you expect
                                                                                                                      a) 1:500
                                                                                                                      b) 1:1000
                                                                                                                      c) 1:2500
                                                                                                                      d) Other (specify)

                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                        • American Psycho
                                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                                          • Feb 2009
                                                                                                                          • 3068
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Pseudonymous
                                                                                                                          Sorry I guess its more clear to me as I know Mutt, i know his intentions of why he made the post and i guess he left a few things implied that some people took differently. But he was asking for the reasons i mentioned and the question is as simple as i said. So try answering with what i mentioned in mind
                                                                                                                          Ok then please answer him if yoy know more of what he's asking.
                                                                                                                          Im curious to hear your estimate and how you got to it.

                                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                                            • American Psycho
                                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                                              • Feb 2009
                                                                                                                              • 3068
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              Originally posted by myleene
                                                                                                                              Why don't you work it the other way around? How much would you need to break even?

                                                                                                                              (*) All provided numbers are an estimate to give a general idea and may change a lot depending on location, experience and your skillset.

                                                                                                                              1) You would need minimum 20 scenes before opening (which you mentioned as high quality)
                                                                                                                              a) You shoot yourself without extra: 500$ x 20 = 10000$
                                                                                                                              b) You don't shoot yourself or pay extras: 1000$ x 20 = 20000$

                                                                                                                              2) New scenes (you mentioned always exclusive and high quality) (monthly)
                                                                                                                              a) You shoot yourself without extra: 500$ x 4 = 2000$
                                                                                                                              b) You don't shoot yourself or pay extras: 1000$ x 4 = 4000$

                                                                                                                              3) Hosting (monthly)
                                                                                                                              a) unmanaged: 50$
                                                                                                                              b) semi-managed: 150$
                                                                                                                              c) managed: 450$

                                                                                                                              4) Content update (edit, produce and publish) (monthly)
                                                                                                                              a) Yourself: Free
                                                                                                                              b) Edit/Produce or Publish by someone else: 400$/800$
                                                                                                                              c) All done by someone else: 800$/1600$

                                                                                                                              5) Website design and general design (monthly)
                                                                                                                              a) Yourself: Free
                                                                                                                              b) Mid-range: 400$
                                                                                                                              c) Mid-range: 800$

                                                                                                                              6) Billing (monthly) (the choice will have an effect on your final profit %)
                                                                                                                              a) Third-party with Visa/MC: 100$
                                                                                                                              b) Your own billing account: Free

                                                                                                                              7) Other partnerships (content trade, hardlinks, program partnership, etc.) (monthly)
                                                                                                                              a) None or trades without expenses: Free
                                                                                                                              b) Some: 200$
                                                                                                                              c) A lot: 500$

                                                                                                                              8) Other general expenses (lawyer, scripts, themes, cms, tools, domain names, etc.) (monthly)
                                                                                                                              a) Minimal: 50$
                                                                                                                              b) Some: 100$
                                                                                                                              c) A lot: 250$+

                                                                                                                              9) Traffic (monthly)
                                                                                                                              a) In-house + affiliates: Free
                                                                                                                              b) Some bought: 100$
                                                                                                                              c) A lot bought: 500$+


                                                                                                                              Answer these, calculate your monthly expenses, calculate your # of required member to break even then ask your question again. At the moment there are way to many unknowns. Adjust all numbers to your closest expectations and you'll have a good overview.

                                                                                                                              Then answer these:

                                                                                                                              10) Will it be part of an existing program
                                                                                                                              a) Yes: More sales
                                                                                                                              b) No: Less sales

                                                                                                                              11) What ratio do you expect
                                                                                                                              a) 1:500
                                                                                                                              b) 1:1000
                                                                                                                              c) 1:2500
                                                                                                                              d) Other (specify)
                                                                                                                              This was a chuckle.
                                                                                                                              good effort but still a chuckle

                                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                                • Pseudonymous
                                                                                                                                  Photographer/Owner
                                                                                                                                  • Apr 2006
                                                                                                                                  • 2661
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  Originally posted by American Psycho
                                                                                                                                  Ok then please answer him if yoy know more of what he's asking.
                                                                                                                                  Im curious to hear your estimate and how you got to it.
                                                                                                                                  I already did answer, i said i dont know what the top new hardcore sites are making as they keep a lid on things. I can look at their public traffic numbers (which are rough estimates) and then make as assumption of what theyre converting at based on the content and their marketing avenues. And come to a number that wouldn't be insanely far off but i think hes seeking out answers from people who might have a better idea of what numbers sites like JT's, Blacked.Com, etc are getting, like the owners themselves or somebody else in the know

                                                                                                                                  Because those are the most recent sites that have top content and are being marketed and managed properly
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                                                                                                                                    • American Psycho
                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                      • Feb 2009
                                                                                                                                      • 3068
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      So he's asking what blacked.com or ruc has as members base?
                                                                                                                                      But thats not what he asked. Its Very very different than what he ask which is about a new startup porn site with harcore content which btw means nothing in a world of niches ie blacked ir content or JT / RUC fake taxe CONCEPTS And tube connections

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                                                                                                                                        • Pseudonymous
                                                                                                                                          Photographer/Owner
                                                                                                                                          • Apr 2006
                                                                                                                                          • 2661
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          Originally posted by American Psycho
                                                                                                                                          So he's asking what blacked.com or ruc has as members base?
                                                                                                                                          But thats not what he asked. Its Very very different than what he ask which is about a new startup porn site with harcore content which btw means nothing in a world of niches ie blacked ir content or JT / RUC fake taxe CONCEPTS And tube connections
                                                                                                                                          Those sites exactly? No. I was giving examples of new sites that are successful.

                                                                                                                                          And yes it is what he was asking. He was asking what a new site should aim for in 2015, if its got great content.. and it was implied that it was run properly and the person didn't screw up doing something stupid like scenarios you mentioned

                                                                                                                                          i dont know why you dont think thats what he was asking. im talking to him, i know what he was asking for and i read his post and i gathered that also.

                                                                                                                                          and i do think sites like faketaxi, blacked can give you an idea, but if you would like better examples, how about wowgirls who is pulling in good money? you think the difference between those member bases is that diff just because ones got a taxi (instead of a bus) and the other has black guys in it? will it help with conversions? yes. but non niche gets a wider audience. but i dont think what they shoudl aim for in 2015 in terms of a member base is all that diff. Its definitely not apples and oranges like youre trying to claim. Youre making it sound like one is capable of 3000 while the other is capable of 500 in 2015. I suspect all those sites i mentioned have thousands of members, in the same ballpark or will at the same point in each of their sites lifetime ( i say that because rebills help build up member bases and blacked is obviously much newer than wowgirls)
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                                                                                                                                          Previous product manager @ Modelcentro.com/MCProfits.com, IsMyGirl.com, SMRevenue.com

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                                                                                                                                            • American Psycho
                                                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                              • Feb 2009
                                                                                                                                              • 3068
                                                                                                                                              #36
                                                                                                                                              Actually he said the exact opposite of what u just said he said. Lols
                                                                                                                                              HE SAID
                                                                                                                                              "appeals to a wide audience but NOT 'wow i never saw a site like that"

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                                                                                                                                                • Pseudonymous
                                                                                                                                                  Photographer/Owner
                                                                                                                                                  • Apr 2006
                                                                                                                                                  • 2661
                                                                                                                                                  #37
                                                                                                                                                  Originally posted by American Psycho
                                                                                                                                                  Actually he said the exact opposite of what u just said he said. Lols
                                                                                                                                                  HE SAID
                                                                                                                                                  "appeals to a wide audience but NOT 'wow i never saw a site like that"
                                                                                                                                                  yeah i fixed that quickly, misread that part. doesn't change my point. i believe his question has an easy answer if you knew what the numbers were of a handful of successful hardcore sites in 2015. the thing is, people do not, especially not the average gfyer

                                                                                                                                                  I can find out the traffic levels of sites, then find out the average conversion rate/rebill rate from talking to a few owners, then use that conversion ratio on traffic data that is publically available and get a rough estimate of member bases. then do that with a handful of successful sites over the past 2 years. and could come up with a number, but i dont have the time or care to, i still say a couple thousand wouldnt be far off of what you should aim for. Big softcore solo sites can do about 500 members, i know of hardcore solo girls that have 1000 members, a good multi girl hardcore site with a good budget is definitely capable of having over 2,000 in 2015 if ran properly.
                                                                                                                                                  Previous owner of SoloRevenue
                                                                                                                                                  Previous product manager @ Modelcentro.com/MCProfits.com, IsMyGirl.com, SMRevenue.com

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                                                                                                                                                    • American Psycho
                                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                      • Feb 2009
                                                                                                                                                      • 3068
                                                                                                                                                      #38
                                                                                                                                                      So he's asking an average of what x# of top sites make?

                                                                                                                                                      Anyways...this is getting silly.

                                                                                                                                                      The question he asked is really difficult if not impossible to answern , he even ackniwledged it in the post and now with your morphing inside info you confuddled it even more.

                                                                                                                                                      But if you take a member count out of the equation I would say his generic non wow hardcore content site will fail in this market as a startup BUSINESS.

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                                                                                                                                                        • American Psycho
                                                                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                          • Feb 2009
                                                                                                                                                          • 3068
                                                                                                                                                          #39
                                                                                                                                                          But then again if he's getting content for free from bootlegged dvds then it will likely be profitable. Lol

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                                                                                                                                                            • AmeliaG
                                                                                                                                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                              • Jan 2003
                                                                                                                                                              • 10663
                                                                                                                                                              #40
                                                                                                                                                              Originally posted by American Psycho
                                                                                                                                                              You and Amelia are two amazing minds at work. Lol

                                                                                                                                                              Vivid one of the biggest brands in adult @ 5million. Omfg.

                                                                                                                                                              They made at least that from the Kim k vid for a few years

                                                                                                                                                              I didn't make that estimate.

                                                                                                                                                              Teams of financial analysts made that estimate for a professional finance tool which costs $25,000 for a membership.

                                                                                                                                                              My point is that it is very difficult to estimate what private companies are doing.

                                                                                                                                                              What do you base your estimate of $5 mill annually for a single video on?

                                                                                                                                                              I know this is GFY, but, if this is to be a useful thread, you need to say how you derived your numbers estimate.
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                                                                                                                                                                • American Psycho
                                                                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                  • Feb 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • 3068
                                                                                                                                                                  #41
                                                                                                                                                                  Kim Kardashian's Sex Tape Worth $30 Million?!

                                                                                                                                                                  Amelia I have no stats backup it was off the cuff but im also not a dodo so yea I know it made a lot of $$$$ and vivid makes a lot more than 5m

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                                                                                                                                                                    • American Psycho
                                                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                      • Feb 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • 3068
                                                                                                                                                                      #42
                                                                                                                                                                      Kim Kardashian's Sex Tape Worth $30 Million?!

                                                                                                                                                                      Amelia I have no stats backup it was off the cuff but im also not a dodo so yea I know it made a lot of $$$$ and vivid makes a lot more than 5m

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                                                                                                                                                                        • AmeliaG
                                                                                                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                          • Jan 2003
                                                                                                                                                                          • 10663
                                                                                                                                                                          #43
                                                                                                                                                                          Originally posted by American Psycho
                                                                                                                                                                          But then again if he's getting content for free from bootlegged dvds then it will likely be profitable. Lol

                                                                                                                                                                          Good grief. Do you seriously have zero idea who Mutt is?
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                                                                                                                                                                            • American Psycho
                                                                                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                              • Feb 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • 3068
                                                                                                                                                                              #44
                                                                                                                                                                              Originally posted by AmeliaG
                                                                                                                                                                              Good grief. Do you seriously have zero idea who Mutt is?
                                                                                                                                                                              I know who he is.

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                                                                                                                                                                                • AmeliaG
                                                                                                                                                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Jan 2003
                                                                                                                                                                                  • 10663
                                                                                                                                                                                  #45
                                                                                                                                                                                  Originally posted by American Psycho
                                                                                                                                                                                  Kim Kardashian's Sex Tape Worth $30 Million?!

                                                                                                                                                                                  Amelia I have no stats backup it was off the cuff but im also not a dodo so yea I know it made a lot of $$$$ and vivid makes a lot more than 5m

                                                                                                                                                                                  Your link is to a celeb gossip site. The article says Hirsch would open negotiations at a high number if someone wanted the sex vid.

                                                                                                                                                                                  Let's say Hirsch's PR estimate of lifetime $30 mill for the Kim K estimate was not inflated. What is $30 million divided by 8 years on sale? Does that really seem like $5 mill a year for just that one video?
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                                                                                                                                                                                    • American Psycho
                                                                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Feb 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • 3068
                                                                                                                                                                                      #46
                                                                                                                                                                                      Originally posted by AmeliaG
                                                                                                                                                                                      Your link is to a celeb gossip site. The article says Hirsch would open negotiations at a high number if someone wanted the sex vid.

                                                                                                                                                                                      Let's say Hirsch's PR estimate of lifetime $30 mill for the Kim K estimate was not inflated. What is $30 million divided by 8 years on sale? Does that really seem like $5 mill a year for just that one video?
                                                                                                                                                                                      Did you read my last post? I have not stats It was off the cuff , i was just illustrating that 5m revenue for vivid is absolutely naive.

                                                                                                                                                                                      I guess u still dont see that.

                                                                                                                                                                                      Your last post pretty much confirms it. Anyways
                                                                                                                                                                                      ...

                                                                                                                                                                                      Im leaving this episode of are you smarter than a second grader

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                                                                                                                                                                                        • Roald
                                                                                                                                                                                          SecretFriends.com
                                                                                                                                                                                          • May 2001
                                                                                                                                                                                          • 27910
                                                                                                                                                                                          #47
                                                                                                                                                                                          Originally posted by The Porn Nerd
                                                                                                                                                                                          Not to sound like Paul Markham - tho maybe he would take the alternate view anyway - but it's all about traffic. Content yes yada yada. But if we're talking major numbers with paysites then we are talking major traffic and very high conversions.

                                                                                                                                                                                          So what is a lot of traffic? There's not a paysite out there that gets even 100K a day in unique visitors. So let's say half and the paysite gets 50k in daily uniques. With a conversion ratio of 1:500 (super good these days) that would be 100 Joins a day (not counting rebills).

                                                                                                                                                                                          So 2800 a month. Fuck, let's even it out to 3k.

                                                                                                                                                                                          3,000 Members paying...what price point? That makes a difference so I will just pick a common one... x $24.95 (round it off to 25 bucks) for a total of: $75,000 a month x 12....so: $900,000 a year. Again, this is just Joins, not rebills. (Also not counting 3 and 6 month, and yearly, Memberships. Ay yi yi!)

                                                                                                                                                                                          OK so how many paysites are raking in $1 mil+ a year? CAN you get 50k a day in unique visitors and convert them at 1:500 (and keep them long enough to rebill)?

                                                                                                                                                                                          So many factors. Adjust accordingly. LOL
                                                                                                                                                                                          Really?

                                                                                                                                                                                          ....


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                                                                                                                                                                                            • AmeliaG
                                                                                                                                                                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Jan 2003
                                                                                                                                                                                              • 10663
                                                                                                                                                                                              #48
                                                                                                                                                                                              Originally posted by American Psycho
                                                                                                                                                                                              Did you read my last post? I have not stats It was off the cuff , i was just illustrating that 5m revenue for vivid is absolutely naive.

                                                                                                                                                                                              I guess u still dont see that.

                                                                                                                                                                                              Your last post pretty much confirms it. Anyways
                                                                                                                                                                                              ...

                                                                                                                                                                                              Im leaving this episode of are you smarter than a second grader

                                                                                                                                                                                              My point, once again, is that it is challenging to have accurate stats on private companies.

                                                                                                                                                                                              People with serious finance backgrounds think Vivid does $5 mill a year. Marriott and similar companies are publicly traded, so financial analysts may or may not have good data on how much Vivid makes on hotel video. They may have some info from interviews with key stakeholders. But how close are their numbers?

                                                                                                                                                                                              At the end of the day, I know that I don't know, although I can make educated guesses.

                                                                                                                                                                                              It is unfortunate you don't know that you don't know.

                                                                                                                                                                                              It is unfortunate that you like to tell people they will fail, at the same time you believe gossip sites are good sources for finance data.

                                                                                                                                                                                              It is unfortunate that it makes you angry that Mutt is trying to do educated forecasting.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                • Mutt
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sep 2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 34431
                                                                                                                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                                                                                                                  No real answers unfortunately, had some hope somebody with loose lips might chime in
                                                                                                                                                                                                  I moved my sites to Vacares Hosting. I've saved money, my hair is thicker, lost some weight too! Thanks Sly!

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                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Shap
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • May 2001
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 8313
                                                                                                                                                                                                      #50
                                                                                                                                                                                                      This is my gut reply (no numbers to support it).

                                                                                                                                                                                                      I'm assuming the following...
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Good members area that retains well.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Good content that has a sales appeal and converts
                                                                                                                                                                                                      A modest budget for acquiring traffic/affiliates (ie whatever the site makes can be re-invested but not much money above and beyond that so no $100,000 a month ad budget).

                                                                                                                                                                                                      First month or two you should be able to easily get 10 signups a day.
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Months 3 to 6 you should be working your way towards a steady 25 a day average.

                                                                                                                                                                                                      If you get to the 25 a day average then you should be able to scale up and hit 40 to 50 a day before year end.

                                                                                                                                                                                                      With those targets you would probably hit 1000 active members around Month 7 or 8. Maybe close out the year approaching or hitting 2000 active members.

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