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This is my gut reply (no numbers to support it).
I'm assuming the following...
Good members area that retains well.
Good content that has a sales appeal and converts
A modest budget for acquiring traffic/affiliates (ie whatever the site makes can be re-invested but not much money above and beyond that so no $100,000 a month ad budget).
First month or two you should be able to easily get 10 signups a day.
Months 3 to 6 you should be working your way towards a steady 25 a day average.
If you get to the 25 a day average then you should be able to scale up and hit 40 to 50 a day before year end.
With those targets you would probably hit 1000 active members around Month 7 or 8. Maybe close out the year approaching or hitting 2000 active members.
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