Interesting Math Riddle... - Page 6 - GoFuckYourself.com

Warden · 12-17-2004, 06:56 PM

2 fiddy

ytcracker · 12-17-2004, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
if you play this game once you have absolutely no reason to change, the statistics never help you when playing once

yes they do
thats what statistics are for

percentage you guess wrong = 33%

even if you got lucky and got it right, beat the odds, and subsequently defeated cancer and found jimmy hoffa

you still only had a 33% chance of it happening

Libertine · 12-17-2004, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
you are not understanding the fact that statistics are never based on one case

The statistical data gathered by experiments only serves as empirical evidence to confirm the theory which holds what we are saying.

SilverTab · 12-17-2004, 06:59 PM

so if i'm throwing a dice....

I have 1/6 of getting 6

but you're telling me it's down to this:

50% of getting 6
50% of not getting 6

???

let me buy a shit load of lottery tickets LOL

yt, I will hook up with you in vegas! let's bet on a single number at the roulette! we have 50/50 chances!

12-17-2004, 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ytcracker
yes they do
thats what statistics are for

percentage you guess wrong = 33%

even if you got lucky and got it right, beat the odds, and subsequently defeated cancer and found jimmy hoffa

you still only had a 33% chance of it happening

You can fucking try to argue all you want. His logic does not allow him to believe what you're saying.

However, the statistical probability suggests that Fake Nick is a dumbass who does not want to believe the numbers. Probabilities are set, and do not change, no matter how often you play the game. Whether once, or 10,000 times.

jesus...

SilverTab · 12-17-2004, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Equinox
You can fucking try to argue all you want. His logic does not allow him to believe what you're saying.

However, the statistical probability suggests that Fake Nick is a dumbass who does not want to believe the numbers. Probabilities are set, and do not change, no matter how often you play the game. Whether once, or 10,000 times.

jesus...

you're making too much sense for this thread

whatever you flip a coin 1 time or 1000 times...the odds are always 50/50

in the Monty case..they are always of 66/33

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ytcracker
yes they do
thats what statistics are for

percentage you guess wrong = 33%

even if you got lucky and got it right, beat the odds, and subsequently defeated cancer and found jimmy hoffa

you still only had a 33% chance of it happening

you have 50 % chance that your 33% wins when there are two options

claiming that you should change based on the 66% chance of winning is claiming that your 66% is equal to 100%

and yet again that is based on one try

ytcracker · 12-17-2004, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
you have 50 % chance that your 33% wins when there are two options

claiming that you should change based on the 66% chance of winning is claiming that your 66% is equal to 100%

and yet again that is based on one try

no
you have a 33% chance of your 33% chance hitting
thats why it is a 33% chance

the number of elements (two boxes) does not alter the ultimate probability of the entire equation

alexg · 12-17-2004, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SilverTab

whatever you flip a coin 1 time or 1000 times...the odds are always 50/50

if the coin is ideal and all that crap

Libertine · 12-17-2004, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
you have 50 % chance that your 33% wins when there are two options

It seems that you don't quite understand the concept of probability and what exactly it holds.

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ytcracker
no
you have a 33% chance of your 33% chance hitting
thats why it is a 33% chance

the number of elements (two boxes) does not alter the ultimate probability of the entire equation

you should try thinking outside of the box

if you put your theory down to one case and one case only you can only conclude that changing or not changing does not matter

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:12 PM

saying that you SHOULD change would be equal to claiming your 66% chance = 100%

12-17-2004, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SilverTab
you're making too much sense for this thread

whatever you flip a coin 1 time or 1000 times...the odds are always 50/50

in the Monty case..they are always of 66/33

flipping a coin... of course it's .5 for either side, because you do have two sides which equates to 1/2. In the dice case, P(1)=P(2)=1P(3)=P(4)=P(5)=
P(6) = 1/6.

I believe the empirical evidence that P(win|switch)= 2/3 - however let me try to work this out by myself.

P(win at first try) = 1/3
P(miss at first try) = 2/3 - evenly distributed.

You do not switch - P(win) remains at 1/3.

If you missed with P(miss)=2/3, the prize is behind one of the remaining doors. If you miss and switch, your probability to win equates

1 - P(picked winner at first try) = 1 - 1/3 = 2/3.

So if you don't switch, your P(win) equates P(win picked at first try) which is constant at 1/3.

That sounds reasonable to me.

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Equinox
flipping a coin... of course it's .5 for either side, because you do have two sides which equates to 1/2. In the dice case, P(1)=P(2)=1P(3)=P(4)=P(5)=
P(6) = 1/6.

I believe the empirical evidence that P(win|switch)= 2/3 - however let me try to work this out by myself.

P(win at first try) = 1/3
P(miss at first try) = 2/3 - evenly distributed.

You do not switch - P(win) remains at 1/3.

If you missed with P(miss)=2/3, the prize is behind one of the remaining doors. If you miss and switch, your probability to win equates

1 - P(picked winner at first try) = 1 - 1/3 = 2/3.

So if you don't switch, your P(win) equates P(win picked at first try) which is constant at 1/3.

That sounds reasonable to me.

does your 66% chance win 100% of the times ? if so you cant lose if not you have 50% chance of the 66% winning

12-17-2004, 07:15 PM

It seems just way too convenient to believe that you will have a fiddy/fiddy chance to pick the right door. But the problem is...

the second pick is DEPENDENT on the first one

And nobody has mentioned this yet.

It is NOT an independent draw in the second round. If it were, then yes .5 chance for each door.

But it ain't. Case closed.

Libertine · 12-17-2004, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
you should try thinking outside of the box

if you put your theory down to one case and one case only you can only conclude that changing or not changing does not matter

No, you can't conclude that. That is what probability holds - it does matter. In this case, switching makes it more likely for you to get the prize.

ytcracker · 12-17-2004, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
saying that you SHOULD change would be equal to claiming your 66% chance = 100%

well thats what a choice is
youre not saying that its 100% for it to be there
youre saying that based on math
it should be there

ytcracker · 12-17-2004, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Equinox
It seems just way too convenient to believe that you will have a fiddy/fiddy chance to pick the right door. But the problem is...

the second pick is DEPENDENT on the first one

And nobody has mentioned this yet.

It is NOT an independent draw in the second round. If it were, then yes .5 chance for each door.

But it ain't. Case closed.

i have mentioned this
100 times

worded differently

ive said that the empty box the host chooses is the basis for the entire equation

people are just forgetting it ever existed when in reality it is the key to the whole puzzle

Libertine · 12-17-2004, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Equinox
It seems just way too convenient to believe that you will have a fiddy/fiddy chance to pick the right door. But the problem is...

the second pick is DEPENDENT on the first one

And nobody has mentioned this yet.

It is NOT an independent draw in the second round. If it were, then yes .5 chance for each door.

But it ain't. Case closed.

Actually, I did kinda mention it when I wrote about immunity in the other thread.

12-17-2004, 07:19 PM

Sorry folks, didn't mean to take your credit. I didn't read the whole thread.

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ytcracker
i have mentioned this
100 times

worded differently

ive said that the empty box the host chooses is the basis for the entire equation

people are just forgetting it ever existed when in reality it is the key to the whole puzzle

ok either way I dont have time to discuss this further an icq buddy of mine who I explained this thread to and showed link just showed me this

http://www.derrenbrown.co.uk/roulette_press.asp

have to read this first

ytcracker · 12-17-2004, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Equinox
Sorry folks, didn't mean to take your credit. I didn't read the whole thread.

nononono not at all

im just saying that
there is 100% chance that some people will never understand this
no matter how many times we spell it out

that is probability for you

12-17-2004, 07:20 PM

The two events of picking the doors are not mutually exclusive.

Sigh, I am done with this topic really. Good night!

SilverTab · 12-17-2004, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Equinox
The two events of picking the doors are not mutually exclusive.

Sigh, I am done with this topic really. Good night!

LOL getting kinda frustrating isn't it??

I had difficulties to believe it at first but fuck..I did what you just did a couple of post above...can't go wrong LOL....

12-17-2004, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ytcracker
nononono not at all

im just saying that
there is 100% chance that some people will never understand this
no matter how many times we spell it out

that is probability for you

dunno whether the chance is 100%, because then all the participating members reading this thread would not agree to our assumptions. But I bet the margin's quite high!

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ytcracker
nononono not at all

im just saying that
there is 100% chance that some people will never understand this
no matter how many times we spell it out

that is probability for you

the fact is you dont understand the difference between one time and 100 times

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:25 PM

you claim the outcome for 100 will always be equal to the outcome for 1

ytcracker · 12-17-2004, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
the fact is you dont understand the difference between one time and 100 times

yes i do

probability doesnt change based on the frequency of the event

Libertine · 12-17-2004, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Equinox
dunno whether the chance is 100%, because then all the participating members reading this thread would not agree to our assumptions. But I bet the margin's quite high!

So far, it seems like those who understand it are almost all people with a fairly good knowledge about programming and that sort of stuff.

woj · 12-17-2004, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SilverTab
You DO have more chances by switching...the best explanation, I think, is this one:

If you always stick with your initial guess, when do you win? Only when you pick the car with your initial guess. This is 1/3 of the time.

If you always switch from your initial guess, when do you win? Only when you don't pick the car with your initial guess. This is 2/3 of the time.

Kinda easy to understand....

The host KNOWS where the prize is....

exellent explanation

ytcracker · 12-17-2004, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
you claim the outcome for 100 will always be equal to the outcome for 1

no im not

im claiming the probability of the outcome will be equal
not the outcome itself

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ytcracker
yes i do

probability doesnt change based on the frequency of the event

it does and it does not

the 33% has 50% chance of winning on one try even though it is only 33%

12-17-2004, 07:27 PM

We are talking about the statistical probabilities here damnit, and not the outcome of an event when it happens once. Trying an experiment once is not going to give you the correct insights on the probabilities of the events, does that not go into your fuckin brain?

We have now proven that you are wrong, the chance is better to switch and that's the end of the story, no matter how ignorant you are towards the subject.

I proved it to you running 10 million iterations of the experiment and you still don't get it?

SilverTab · 12-17-2004, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
the fact is you dont understand the difference between one time and 100 times

The fact is that you don't know what probability means...

when you flip a coin, the probability is 50/50...... whatever you flip it 100 times or 1 times...does this mean you will ALWAYS get tail on the first shot? NO...but the odd is still 50/50

Same thing with this problem!
the odds are 66/33

does it mean you will ALWAYS win by switching? no...but you have a greater chance....whatever you play 1 or 10000000000 times....the probability is still THE SAME

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Equinox
We are talking about the statistical probabilities here damnit, and not the outcome of an event when it happens once. Trying an experiment once is not going to give you the correct insights on the probabilities of the events, does that not go into your fuckin brain?

We have now proven that you are wrong, the chance is better to switch and that's the end of the story, no matter how ignorant you are towards the subject.

I proved it to you running 10 million iterations of the experiment and you still don't get it?

the thread was about one try

I am basing all my claims on one try and one try only

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SilverTab
The fact is that you don't know what probability means...

when you flip a coin, the probability is 50/50...... whatever you flip it 100 times or 1 times...does this mean you will ALWAYS get tail on the first shot? NO...but the odd is still 50/50

Same thing with this problem!
the odds are 66/33

does it mean you will ALWAYS win by switching? no...but you have a greater chance....whatever you play 1 or 10000000000 times....the probability is still THE SAME

hahahahahahaha

sorry to dissapoint you but it has been proven that because both sides of a coin are not equal there is no 50% chance with coins

SilverTab · 12-17-2004, 07:30 PM

and it's no 33% becoming 50%!

by switching, you actually take 2 boxes out of 3..... the 33% becomes 66%

12-17-2004, 07:30 PM

you toss a coin once and you will claim that the probability of getting heads is 0.0?

nigga please. your logic is faulty.

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SilverTab

Same thing with this problem!
the odds are 66/33

does it mean you will ALWAYS win by switching? no...but you have a greater chance....whatever you play 1 or 10000000000 times....the probability is still THE SAME

no its not statistisc win by doing it multiple times

66% = 1

33% = 0

it will be either 1 or 0 if you try once >> 50 % says 1 50 % says 0

SilverTab · 12-17-2004, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
hahahahahahaha

sorry to dissapoint you but it has been proven that because both sides of a coin are not equal there is no 50% chance with coins

ok....

that's it.....

i'm out of here......

ytcracker · 12-17-2004, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
it does and it does not

the 33% has 50% chance of winning on one try even though it is only 33%

no

it has a 33% chance

im not pulling 33 out of my ass here
no one is

Libertine · 12-17-2004, 07:33 PM

Methinks Fake Nick is trolling, and is in fact doing this merely for entertainment. Nobody could seriously claim that "33% has 50% chance of winning"

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Equinox
you toss a coin once and you will claim that the probability of getting heads is 0.0?

nigga please. your logic is faulty.

I am saying it is not equal with coins , there have been studies that because both sides are not equally heavy there is no 50% chance with coins

SilverTab · 12-17-2004, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
no its not statistisc win by doing it multiple times

66% = 1

33% = 0

it will be either 1 or 0 if you try once >> 50 % says 1 50 % says 0

again...if you have 0.00005% chances of winning at lottery...

0.000005% = 1
99.00005% = 0

it will be eighter 1 or 0, 50/50??

ok you just suck at math... nothing we can do about it!

12-17-2004, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SilverTab
ok....

that's it.....

i'm out of here......

yeah no shit... this is getting ridiculous

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SilverTab
ok....

that's it.....

i'm out of here......

dont have to believe me but its true

Fake Nick · 12-17-2004, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SilverTab
again...if you have 0.00005% chances of winning at lottery...

0.000005% = 1
99.00005% = 0

it will be eighter 1 or 0, 50/50??

ok you just suck at math... nothing we can do about it!

1 out of 3 is not equal to 1 out of 1 000000

and you claim I am bad at math

12-17-2004, 07:36 PM

later folks, have fun explaining principles of simple probability to this braindead monkey.

SilverTab · 12-17-2004, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by punkworld
Methinks Fake Nick is trolling, and is in fact doing this merely for entertainment. Nobody could seriously claim that "33% has 50% chance of winning"

word...he can't be serious....

saying 33% chance becomes 50% becuase it's only 1 attempt is really clueless......

think of a fucking dice LOL....if you make only one throw, you have 50% chances of getting a 6??? come on LOL.... now you'll say that the dots on each face do not interfer with the wind equally or some bullshit like that? come on admit that you are kidding LOL

SilverTab · 12-17-2004, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fake Nick
1 out of 3 is not equal to 1 out of 1 000000

and you claim I am bad at math

i'm just following your logic!

you're saying 1/3 = 1/2

which is just as stupid

12-17-2004, 06:56 PM	#251
Warden Confirmed User Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Valencia, CA Posts: 2,906	2 fiddy __________________ AIM: ZeeRiddler ICQ: 128160005 Warden's MS

12-17-2004, 06:59 PM	#254
SilverTab Confirmed User Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: MTL Posts: 5,060	so if i'm throwing a dice.... I have 1/6 of getting 6 but you're telling me it's down to this: 50% of getting 6 50% of not getting 6 ??? let me buy a shit load of lottery tickets LOL yt, I will hook up with you in vegas! let's bet on a single number at the roulette! we have 50/50 chances! __________________ mmm my sig was too big... no more cool animation but hey still! need php? ICQ: 94586959

12-17-2004, 07:30 PM	#287
SilverTab Confirmed User Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: MTL Posts: 5,060	and it's no 33% becoming 50%! by switching, you actually take 2 boxes out of 3..... the 33% becomes 66% __________________ mmm my sig was too big... no more cool animation but hey still! need php? ICQ: 94586959

12-17-2004, 07:33 PM	#292
Libertine sex dwarf Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 17,860	Methinks Fake Nick is trolling, and is in fact doing this merely for entertainment. Nobody could seriously claim that "33% has 50% chance of winning" __________________ /(bb\|[^b]{2})/

12-17-2004, 07:12 PM	#262
Fake Nick So Fucking Banned Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: go troll goo! Posts: 7,708	saying that you SHOULD change would be equal to claiming your 66% chance = 100%

12-17-2004, 07:15 PM	#265
X37375787 Guest Posts: n/a	It seems just way too convenient to believe that you will have a fiddy/fiddy chance to pick the right door. But the problem is... the second pick is DEPENDENT on the first one And nobody has mentioned this yet. It is NOT an independent draw in the second round. If it were, then yes .5 chance for each door. But it ain't. Case closed.

12-17-2004, 07:19 PM	#270
X37375787 Guest Posts: n/a	Sorry folks, didn't mean to take your credit. I didn't read the whole thread.

12-17-2004, 07:20 PM	#273
X37375787 Guest Posts: n/a	The two events of picking the doors are not mutually exclusive. Sigh, I am done with this topic really. Good night!

12-17-2004, 07:25 PM	#277
Fake Nick So Fucking Banned Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: go troll goo! Posts: 7,708	you claim the outcome for 100 will always be equal to the outcome for 1

12-17-2004, 07:27 PM	#283
X37375787 Guest Posts: n/a	We are talking about the statistical probabilities here damnit, and not the outcome of an event when it happens once. Trying an experiment once is not going to give you the correct insights on the probabilities of the events, does that not go into your fuckin brain? We have now proven that you are wrong, the chance is better to switch and that's the end of the story, no matter how ignorant you are towards the subject. I proved it to you running 10 million iterations of the experiment and you still don't get it?

12-17-2004, 07:30 PM	#288
X37375787 Guest Posts: n/a	you toss a coin once and you will claim that the probability of getting heads is 0.0? nigga please. your logic is faulty.

12-17-2004, 07:36 PM	#298
X37375787 Guest Posts: n/a	later folks, have fun explaining principles of simple probability to this braindead monkey.