Bush's "bounce" in poll actually small! - GoFuckYourself.com

Centurion · 09-07-2004, 12:13 AM

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of 1,018 adult Americans, including 778 likely voters and 926 registered voters, was conducted by telephone September 3-5.

Bush's convention bounce appeared to be 2 percentage points.

Incumbents have gotten an average bounce of slightly more than 6 points in previous elections, so Bush's apparent bounce seems small by historical standards.

Kerry got no bounce coming out of the Democratic convention, making Bush's movement appear robust.

Still, the 2 percentage point bounce could be illusory, since the poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...oll/index.html

Centurion · 09-07-2004, 12:22 AM

Anyone that thinks Bush has this election locked up is crazy.

It's still a dead heat and almost ANYTHING can happen in the next 60 days that could tilt it big time either way.

(Personally I see a weak but recovering Bill Clinton doing a major ad just days before the election urging the American people to vote for Kerry! The American people will be so overcome with joy to hear Clinton speak again and know he's doing well will rush to the polls in a herd to vote for Kerry! Remember how America reacted to Reagen's death? Something about ex-presidents really bring out the soft side of Americans!)

rickholio · 09-07-2004, 12:27 AM

Post convention bounces depend on the masses of 'undecided' to swing one way or the other, depending on how the spirit moves them during the convention. When you have an election that is already so polarized, the undecideds are few and thus the 'bump' is minor.

This is the main reason why you'll see the candidates focusing heavily on GOTV strategies rather than wooing the undecideds: there's so few to woo.

Getting lazy asses off the couch will be the determining factor in this election, I think.

baddog · 09-07-2004, 12:30 AM

Support groups are good . . . it is nice that you are forming it now instead of waiting until 11/3

MikeHawk · 09-07-2004, 12:32 AM

hmmmmm I dont know.....
what I look at is this the quiet majority, the ones that have put Fox news no.1 above all the other news network and cable stations...and that is head and shoulders above the rest of the other news networks.....

Its going to be close...

cherrylula · 09-07-2004, 12:34 AM

bush will lose, and I will smile while republicans cry and bang their fists against the wall.

Centurion · 09-07-2004, 02:10 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by rickholio
Post convention bounces depend on the masses of 'undecided' to swing one way or the other, depending on how the spirit moves them during the convention. When you have an election that is already so polarized, the undecideds are few and thus the 'bump' is minor.

This is the main reason why you'll see the candidates focusing heavily on GOTV strategies rather than wooing the undecideds: there's so few to woo.

Getting lazy asses off the couch will be the determining factor in this election, I think.

I think the # of un-decideds are down to around 1200 at last count.

Centurion · 09-07-2004, 02:12 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by MikeHawk
hmmmmm I dont know.....
what I look at is this the quiet majority, the ones that have put Fox news no.1 above all the other news network and cable stations...and that is head and shoulders above the rest of the other news networks.....

Its going to be close...

The "Silent Majority" has now become the "Quiet Minority" eh?
Picking up tricks from old tricky Dick himself!

And as for Fox being #1 (in WHO'S book?) and head and shoulders above the rest of the other news networks, I can only say..

reynold · 09-07-2004, 02:12 AM

no to bush. no to war. no to terrorism.

Doctor Dre · 09-07-2004, 02:24 AM

I just fucking hope Kerry gets re-elected cauz this is gonna get ugly

slavdogg · 09-07-2004, 02:59 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Centurion

And as for Fox being #1 (in WHO'S book?) and head and shoulders above the rest of the other news networks, I can only say..

Nielson Ratings
FoxNews got the #1 ratings durring the convention

slavdogg · 09-07-2004, 03:00 AM

Let me be the first one to predict Bush will win by a landslide

Ecstasy Glass · 09-07-2004, 03:12 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by MikeHawk
hmmmmm I dont know.....
what I look at is this the quiet majority, the ones that have put Fox news no.1 above all the other news network and cable stations...and that is head and shoulders above the rest of the other news networks.....

Its going to be close...

Fox news sucks. I prefer Jon Stewart's Daily Show by far.

Centurion · 09-07-2004, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by slavdogg
Nielson Ratings
FoxNews got the #1 ratings durring the convention

So Fox News got a #1 rating (ya didn't say from WHOM) during the Republican Convention. Does that really suprise you since it's a Republican news channel?

crowkid · 09-07-2004, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Centurion
The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of 1,018 adult Americans, including 778 likely voters and 926 registered voters, was conducted by telephone September 3-5.

Bush's convention bounce appeared to be 2 percentage points.

Incumbents have gotten an average bounce of slightly more than 6 points in previous elections, so Bush's apparent bounce seems small by historical standards.

Kerry got no bounce coming out of the Democratic convention, making Bush's movement appear robust.

Still, the 2 percentage point bounce could be illusory, since the poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...oll/index.html

Keep thinking happy thoughts, whatever floats your boat

block · 09-07-2004, 12:56 PM

I hope Kerry gets elected, but I dont think it's gonna happen.

Rich · 09-07-2004, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by MikeHawk
hmmmmm I dont know.....
what I look at is this the quiet majority, the ones that have put Fox news no.1 above all the other news network and cable stations...and that is head and shoulders above the rest of the other news networks.....

Its going to be close...

You're so stupid, you keeping repeating this over and over again like it means something.

Let me explain.

No intelligent people watch Fox News. Intelligent people get their news from a variety of newspapers, magazines, websites, public news and to a lesser extent other cable news networks. Smart people don't like getting one point of view summed up in 30 seconds on complicated issues.

On the other hand, the people who watch Fox only watch Fox. They don't watch other news networks that pretend to be unbiased, they like having one party's talking points parroted over and over again. These are the morons who are going to vote for Bush for reasons like "he's decisive" and "tough on terror" and "Kerry's a flip flopper".

Look at what % of Americans watch Fox or CNN, it's not very high. Fox may be number 1 in terms of market share, but that hardly means even close to the majority of Americans watch it.

The trailer park inbreeds who watch that network are all going to vote for Bush because the flag waiving network tells them to, but they hardly represent a "quiet majority".

Manowar · 09-07-2004, 01:18 PM

baddog · 09-07-2004, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Doctor Dre
I just fucking hope Kerry gets re-elected cauz this is gonna get ugly

re-elected? now I know you are high

crowkid · 09-07-2004, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Rich
You're so stupid, you keeping repeating this over and over again like it means something.

Let me explain.

No intelligent people watch Fox News. Intelligent people get their news from a variety of newspapers, magazines, websites, public news and to a lesser extent other cable news networks. Smart people don't like getting one point of view summed up in 30 seconds on complicated issues.

On the other hand, the people who watch Fox only watch Fox. They don't watch other news networks that pretend to be unbiased, they like having one party's talking points parroted over and over again. These are the morons who are going to vote for Bush for reasons like "he's decisive" and "tough on terror" and "Kerry's a flip flopper".

Look at what % of Americans watch Fox or CNN, it's not very high. Fox may be number 1 in terms of market share, but that hardly means even close to the majority of Americans watch it.

The trailer park inbreeds who watch that network are all going to vote for Bush because the flag waiving network tells them to, but they hardly represent a "quiet majority".

Would these same "intelligent" people be getting their misinformed, misguided, views from Michael Moore too?

09-07-2004, 12:22 AM	#2
Centurion Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: SeATtle Posts: 6,033	Anyone that thinks Bush has this election locked up is crazy. It's still a dead heat and almost ANYTHING can happen in the next 60 days that could tilt it big time either way. (Personally I see a weak but recovering Bill Clinton doing a major ad just days before the election urging the American people to vote for Kerry! The American people will be so overcome with joy to hear Clinton speak again and know he's doing well will rush to the polls in a herd to vote for Kerry! Remember how America reacted to Reagen's death? Something about ex-presidents really bring out the soft side of Americans!) __________________

09-07-2004, 12:32 AM	#5
MikeHawk Confirmed User Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: In bed with Harley Girl....Not sleepin Posts: 6,683	hmmmmm I dont know..... what I look at is this the quiet majority, the ones that have put Fox news no.1 above all the other news network and cable stations...and that is head and shoulders above the rest of the other news networks..... Its going to be close... __________________ THE AMBUSH INTERVIEW

09-07-2004, 12:56 PM	#16
block Confirmed User Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Winnipeg, Canada - cough check sig cough Posts: 1,258	I hope Kerry gets elected, but I dont think it's gonna happen. __________________ ICQ - 19961769

09-07-2004, 12:13 AM	#1
Centurion Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: SeATtle Posts: 6,033	Bush's "bounce" in poll actually small! The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of 1,018 adult Americans, including 778 likely voters and 926 registered voters, was conducted by telephone September 3-5. Bush's convention bounce appeared to be 2 percentage points. Incumbents have gotten an average bounce of slightly more than 6 points in previous elections, so Bush's apparent bounce seems small by historical standards. Kerry got no bounce coming out of the Democratic convention, making Bush's movement appear robust. Still, the 2 percentage point bounce could be illusory, since the poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...oll/index.html __________________

09-07-2004, 12:27 AM	#3
rickholio Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Nor'easterland Posts: 1,914	Post convention bounces depend on the masses of 'undecided' to swing one way or the other, depending on how the spirit moves them during the convention. When you have an election that is already so polarized, the undecideds are few and thus the 'bump' is minor. This is the main reason why you'll see the candidates focusing heavily on GOTV strategies rather than wooing the undecideds: there's so few to woo. Getting lazy asses off the couch will be the determining factor in this election, I think.

09-07-2004, 12:30 AM	#4
baddog So Fucking Banned Industry Role: Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: the beach, SoCal Posts: 107,089	Support groups are good . . . it is nice that you are forming it now instead of waiting until 11/3

09-07-2004, 12:34 AM	#6
cherrylula lol Industry Role: Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 15,969	bush will lose, and I will smile while republicans cry and bang their fists against the wall.

09-07-2004, 02:12 AM	#9
reynold Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Global Traveler Posts: 51,271	no to bush. no to war. no to terrorism.

09-07-2004, 03:00 AM	#12
slavdogg Confirmed User Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 3,570	Let me be the first one to predict Bush will win by a landslide

09-07-2004, 01:18 PM	#18
Manowar jellyfish Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 71,528