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Post convention bounces depend on the masses of 'undecided' to swing one way or the other, depending on how the spirit moves them during the convention. When you have an election that is already so polarized, the undecideds are few and thus the 'bump' is minor.
This is the main reason why you'll see the candidates focusing heavily on GOTV strategies rather than wooing the undecideds: there's so few to woo.
Getting lazy asses off the couch will be the determining factor in this election, I think.
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