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Discuss what's fucking going on, and which programs are best and worst. One-time "program" announcements from "established" webmasters are allowed.

 
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:14 AM   #1
Choker
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My Predictions

With all that is going on in this biz, here are my predictions:

1. Affiliate programs
Programs will continue to be in business, but the owners will get less and less traffic from affiliates. It's almost impossible as it is now for a affliiate to make a gallery, get it listed and actually make a profit with all the increased shaving/scrubbing. Smaller and newer affiliate programs will have the hardest time getting people to promote their programs. These owners will have to seek out non-traditional sources of traffic.

2. New paysites
I think we will see a big influx of new paysites because of the above. Affiliates are getting fed up with all the scrubbing/shaving. A small paysite requires little investment. Look for many new cheap plugins to accomadate these new paysites. Just like starting a TGP, in the near future starting a paysite will require little or no money.

3. TGP's
Already most TGP's are sending as much traffic as is possible to their own galleries, sponsor hosted galleries and paid spots. The days of free gallery listings for gallery makers is all but kaput. TGP's have shown a history of being the most flexable sites in this biz, they will continue to gobble up most of the available adult traffic. Anyone who thinks that TGP's do not control the majority of adult traffic are not facing reality.

4. Free hosts
Free hosts will soon be extinct. Just got a email a few days back about Gamma shutting down their free hosts. If a sponsor owned free host can't turn a profit on free hosting, then that says a lot. Gamma is a top notch and very smart company. Sometimes it's best to bail out before the ship sinks.

5. Big paysites
Like Nasty, CEcash, etc will continue to survive and grow. They have the resources and traffic to make things happen. But they too will have to go to untraditional sources of traffic. What few affiliates that do not start their own paysites, will become very picky about where they send thier traffic. Tours with less aggresive tactics will be the choice of most affilates. Those affilaites will be the owners of free sites, and do not want thier surfers jerked around. If they don't get a sale they want the surfer back.

6. PPS versus partner
More and more affiliates will pursue PPS programs. I for one have in the past and will do so even more now. No processor can be trusted to be around in 1 month. History tells us this. While some Sponsors like Angelgreen is paying out the webmasters despite the loss of money from Globill, most will not. I got news for the guys who do not: YOU ARE STILL RESPONSIBLE. You chose the processor and the debt is yours. Try passing along the responsibility to Globill if this were not the adult business. your clock would get cleaned in court. It is YOUR RESPONSIBILTY to make sure the affiliate gets paid.



Sorry for the rant, if you disagree with my predictions that's cool, I am probably 100% wrong on them all anyway. LOL
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:19 AM   #2
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I predict you will come out of the closet.
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:23 AM   #3
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:24 AM   #4
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You make some valid points and maybe there will be in increase in small paysites but i predict they wont last . Its sites that provide daily updates of fresh exclusive content that will survive and sites that we promote have proven that time and time again over the last 2 years.

It cost big bucks to add fresh content and new models and from our experience surfers could care less about cheap feeds that they can see on any site. Its going to be interesting to see what happens over the coming months.

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Old 07-26-2003, 10:24 AM   #5
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Originally posted by [Labret]
I predict you will come out of the closet.
Not until my kids grow up and move out. Can't let them deal with the shame of having a gay dad just yet......
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:26 AM   #6
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Originally posted by Choker
make a profit with all the increased shaving/scrubbing.

Well, thats for the PPS programs... I doubt that many programs dealing with ccbill for exemple shave... but I migh be wrong...


Btw, alot of big programs uses Epoch.. do they offer the "shave" option?
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:28 AM   #7
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I agree on all points except on the small paysites.
Most people who want to start a small paysite will not be able to afford the VISA/MC fees. And if you can't afford to pay those fees, then most likely you wil not be able to come out with a strong enough paysite.
What may happen though is that system like the one swoit has, will likely increase the number of paysite they have, therefore becoming somekind of avs system.
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:28 AM   #8
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I'm hoping for a mass newbie suicide.
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:29 AM   #9
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You're assessment sounds pretty accurate.

I see a lot of focus on alternative transaction methods.

The outcome of the Acacia patents could have a significant impact on things because where there is one ant there are more close by. I imagine other companies will start looking for small companies to acquire that have obscure patents which they can try nailing adult webmasters for licensing fees on.

Third party processing is going to be turbulent. I just don't see how they will compete in an environment like this because its only going to get more difficult.

If the DOJ ever gets any obscenity prosecutions going that will have a major impact on things. Most webmasters will shit their pants and bail out fast if guys you know on GFY start getting arrested.

The best thing we have going for us is the universe of Internet users is going up and up and up for years to come. This will help offset the impact from all the other problems.

I think more and more adult guys will explore setting up mainstream sites and finding clever ways to derive traffic into their adult sites from them.

I think the adult webmaster "middle class" is going to shrink and you're going to see more of a have lots and have nots situation.

The main thing is the demand for porn will continue to increase every year as more people become addicted to it and spend more time searching for elaborate niche sites to fulfill their complex fantasies.
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:36 AM   #10
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The main thing is the demand for porn will continue to increase every year as more people become addicted to it and spend more time searching for elaborate niche sites to fulfill their complex fantasies.
Agreed, old time surfers are boredd with what there is. They are wanting more niche content as they age. As I get older, I find myself more attractive to specific body types. More middle aged people are newbie surfers now, we have to learn to cater to them. Just a "teen" site does not do it with them. They want to see for example skinny blonde teens with big tits and tattos. These people have for the most part had credit cards for a long time. If they don't get what they were promised they are fast to charge back.
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:43 AM   #11
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It cost big bucks to add fresh content and new models and from our experience surfers could care less about cheap feeds that they can see on any site. Its going to be interesting to see what happens over the coming months.
Maybe that is because paysites link to the plugins almost as a after thought? And when you do go to a plugin you have to hit 1 or 2 more pages just to get in the plugin, then another 3 pages before you finally see any content. Plugins that change their methods and can incooperate their sites to blend in with paysites will make a killing. If done properly a paysite can be made from only plugins, and the surfer would never even know.
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:46 AM   #12
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#1. Yes

#2. Has already been happening, not only as a reaction to the lessening appeal of affiliate programs, but also because of a similar situation with AVS operators. I think it has been going on long enough to give the owners a dose of reality. Combine that with the recent collapse of some payment processors, and several may already be regretting the move.

#3-5. Yes

#6. Is the tough one. The recurring option may anyway cease to exist. If it does not, then while your logic is sound, pay sites can impact greatly on what people actually do, simply by playing with the rates. For a long time most have pulled webmasters towards PPS without too many thinking about what was really best. They can continue the PPS appeal or reverse it without too much trouble.
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:47 AM   #13
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If the DOJ ever gets any obscenity prosecutions going that will have a major impact on things. Most webmasters will shit their pants and bail out fast if guys you know on GFY start getting arrested.

Obscenity charges? for what?

and I would guess that would only apply to US webmasters...
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:47 AM   #14
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Originally posted by Choker

4. Free hosts
Free hosts will soon be extinct. Just got a email a few days back about Gamma shutting down their free hosts. If a sponsor owned free host can't turn a profit on free hosting, then that says a lot. Gamma is a top notch and very smart company. Sometimes it's best to bail out before the ship sinks.
Already seen it. It's history in the making. SIC, Gammae, many others. I have clients with small freehosts that have already shut them down.

Quote:
Originally posted by Choker

6. PPS versus partner
More and more affiliates will pursue PPS programs. I for one have in the past and will do so even more now. No processor can be trusted to be around in 1 month. History tells us this. While some Sponsors like Angelgreen is paying out the webmasters despite the loss of money from Globill, most will not. I got news for the guys who do not: YOU ARE STILL RESPONSIBLE. You chose the processor and the debt is yours. Try passing along the responsibility to Globill if this were not the adult business. your clock would get cleaned in court. It is YOUR RESPONSIBILTY to make sure the affiliate gets paid.
Yea, LOL. Let Joe's New Car Sales lose their processing and refuse to pay their staff and see what happens GloBill is responsible for those payments to the programs and webmasters and needs to be held accountable. Somehow.

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Old 07-26-2003, 10:53 AM   #15
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Obscenity charges? for what?

and I would guess that would only apply to US webmasters...
Are you serious? Read all the legal opinions by top adult industry attorneys about what exposes you to obscenity prosecution under the current DOJ regime.

Have you seen how far to the edge and over the edge many sites are now??

Everyone seems to have forgotten about the reality of what we sell and how its being sold and offered in the wide open on the zillions of galleries out there.
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:58 AM   #16
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Interesting predictions...I'd have to agree for the most part.
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Old 07-26-2003, 10:59 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally posted by KRL
I see a lot of focus on alternative transaction methods.
I think this will have short-lived appeal just like the current attraction of solo webmasters to the idea of building their own pay sites.

As always, the crooks and incompetents will outnumber those who might make alternative methods work and create a negative reputation for the whole field. They are all likely to have to deal with a higher ratio of crooked webmasters since so many will be in search of a new home and there will not be as many options as before.

As well as those problems, most will not have the ability to fulfil the need for instant gratification that is responsible for a lot of porn sales.

Such payment methods may appeal to webmasters who can not or do not want to live with other options, but what is their real appeal to the surfer? Another layer of anonymity? Okay, but how important is that when someone wants to get at the dirty pictures now?
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Old 07-26-2003, 11:00 AM   #18
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Obscenity can be learned by going to your local video store and finding out what they rent.

Here in Southern California I think there are no obscenity laws

hahaha

porn is everywhere, at the video stores here they have tables of porn boxes stacked as high as the ceiling, they sell them by the scene hahaha

4 dollar vhs tapes as far as the eye can see.

gotta love what hollywood does with its throw-aways.

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Old 07-26-2003, 11:00 AM   #19
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GloBill is responsible for those payments to the programs and webmasters and needs to be held accountable. Somehow.
I disagree. Joe's New Car Sales are responsible for paying thier staff, not the processor. If the processor goes belly up this does not relieve Joe's New Car Sales of it's responsibility to pay its staff. The paysite owners that used Globill and refuse to still pay the affiliates, are in most cases in breech of contract. Affilates that are owed money are just taking this as a loss, normal operating prcedure. This is total bullshit, the sponsor needs to pay you regardless of Globills financial situation. To do other wise just makes it harder to make sponsors live up to thier responsibilities in the future. It is up to the Program to deal with Globill, not the affiliate webmasters.
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Old 07-26-2003, 11:01 AM   #20
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Good predictions, Choker but you didn't address the biggest trends rising lately in terms of how people view/approach porn online. (Im not give hints either)

Also, on the paysite model, as people mature online, the big programs' Chump em and Dump em strategy will work less and less .... This can only benefit true quality sites like Alsscan and wetlands, etc
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Old 07-26-2003, 11:02 AM   #21
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I agree with most of what you said. I might add, the big guys will keep the shave on until it's 2 late most likely, other words they will loose partners and if they are like me, I'll never use them again. What most of them just do not understand word of mouth is the best or worse advertisement. Wasn't very long ago if I sent 200 unique's I got a sign up (I don't care what program it was), don't care if it was a Blonde page going to a BBW page. Most people say but the traffic wasn't targeted (I've heard this crock of shit so many times & most of you have also, I know most of you believe it). The link said BBW not blondes so why the fuck did they click on it. I really think most of the pay site owners think every webmaster that signs up to there program is a Newbe
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Old 07-26-2003, 11:08 AM   #22
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Free hosts shutting down, does that mean less free porn?
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Old 07-26-2003, 11:09 AM   #23
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My prediction is that overreliance on sponsor hosted galleries will fuck TGPs up.
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Old 07-26-2003, 11:10 AM   #24
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Originally posted by Fletch XXX
Obscenity can be learned by going to your local video store and finding out what they rent.

Here in Southern California I think there are no obscenity laws

hahaha

porn is everywhere, at the video stores here they have tables of porn boxes stacked as high as the ceiling, they sell them by the scene hahaha

4 dollar vhs tapes as far as the eye can see.

gotta love what hollywood does with its throw-aways.

I dated a lady that worked in a Video store in the Bay Area, think the owner had 4 or 5 of them. She told me they wouldn't be in business without the adult section.
hard to believe some guys rent like 5 or 6 at one time bring'em back that afternoon and get more of'em.
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Old 07-26-2003, 11:11 AM   #25
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Good predictions, Choker but you didn't address the biggest trends rising lately in terms of how people view/approach porn online. (Im not give hints either)
Marco Polo. The east is the next goldmine. Traffic filtered at the Gallery/tgp level opens Pandora's box as far as who is cheating and who is not. Not to mention the huge strain on servers that comes from Geo-filtering. It is much easier for a sponsor to geo-filter 10k surfers, than the TGP or gallery that had to server up 100k page views in order to generate those clicks to the sponsor. Sponsors need to find ways to convert every surfer regardless of where they live. Seperate them at the paysite level, not before. Sponsor that can convert any surfer will get more and more traffic from me.
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Old 07-26-2003, 11:16 AM   #26
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Are you serious? Read all the legal opinions by top adult industry attorneys about what exposes you to obscenity prosecution under the current DOJ regime.

Have you seen how far to the edge and over the edge many sites are now??

Everyone seems to have forgotten about the reality of what we sell and how its being sold and offered in the wide open on the zillions of galleries out there.

well, as for paysites.. obscenity differ from country to country... and most countries will judge your site on whether its legal or not.. which will not be based on obsenity...

As for being a wide open... well there's many ways to deal with that....

Like when getting your drivers liscense.. you need to know how to drive... Well, it could be similar with getting yourself internet access... if you are a parent... you need to know how to install a "protection" software... And for those that already have internet access.. heavy publicity on TV for parents should to the trick...

Last edited by xxxdesign-net; 07-26-2003 at 11:18 AM..
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Old 07-26-2003, 11:17 AM   #27
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Originally posted by Choker


The paysite owners that used Globill and refuse to still pay the affiliates, are in most cases in breech of contract. Affilates that are owed money are just taking this as a loss, normal operating prcedure. This is total bullshit, the sponsor needs to pay you regardless of Globills financial situation. To do other wise just makes it harder to make sponsors live up to thier responsibilities in the future. It is up to the Program to deal with Globill, not the affiliate webmasters.
This is true, I don't care if they have to go borrow the dam money, ***pay your partners or loose'em*** and remember word of mouth. I got an email from one today, said he wasn't worried about it GloBill going down the tubes, didn't say one thing about paying his partners. for some reason I quit awhile ago promoting and site that used GloBill, don't know exactly way i just did, could have been what i read on this board and the way they were going to handle the Visa shit.
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Old 07-26-2003, 11:17 AM   #28
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Seperate them at the paysite level, not before.
...which would also sort out those TGPs currently geo-sorting "worthless" traffic to send to their trade partners.
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Old 07-26-2003, 11:25 AM   #29
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Choker, agree with some...disagree on others. I don't think the small to medium paysites with affiliate programs are going to lose out. I think many webmasters/affiliates are already pointing the finger at some of the larger unscrupulous programs out there and blaming them for much of the current state of affairs.

I actually think that the small/medium paysites with affiliate programs will become more popular and grow exponentially because there are more niche sites with these programs and less chance of the more solid ones of getting in trouble with Visa over chargeback ratios.

IMHO the middle class will grow and the big site class and newbie class will shrink.

It's definitely going to be interesting.

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Old 07-26-2003, 11:25 AM   #30
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Originally posted by jayeff


...which would also sort out those TGPs currently geo-sorting "worthless" traffic to send to their trade partners.
Correct. The biggest crisis facing TGP's today is geo-filtering. I watch the traffic I buy very varefully and make rules that do not invite non-english speaking traffic. Wehn a webmaster starts sending more than average non-english traffic, I talk to him one on one and ask him to stop.

What TGP should I blacklist for throwing a console at French surfers, German, etc. Where does it end? Joeblow TGP starts popping consoles on every surfer, claims it was a hiccup in his geo-filtering script. Geo-filtering at the tgp/gallery level makes more new problems than solving old problems. And if sponsors put the effort into converting these undesireable surfers, then those surfers will no longer be undesireable.
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Old 07-26-2003, 11:25 AM   #31
SKULL
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I am a tgp runner, and I'm seriolusly considering to start my own paysites and send all my traffic there.. it seems to me like one good option for guys like me....
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