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#1. Yes
#2. Has already been happening, not only as a reaction to the lessening appeal of affiliate programs, but also because of a similar situation with AVS operators. I think it has been going on long enough to give the owners a dose of reality. Combine that with the recent collapse of some payment processors, and several may already be regretting the move.
#3-5. Yes
#6. Is the tough one. The recurring option may anyway cease to exist. If it does not, then while your logic is sound, pay sites can impact greatly on what people actually do, simply by playing with the rates. For a long time most have pulled webmasters towards PPS without too many thinking about what was really best. They can continue the PPS appeal or reverse it without too much trouble.
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