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You're assessment sounds pretty accurate.
I see a lot of focus on alternative transaction methods.
The outcome of the Acacia patents could have a significant impact on things because where there is one ant there are more close by. I imagine other companies will start looking for small companies to acquire that have obscure patents which they can try nailing adult webmasters for licensing fees on.
Third party processing is going to be turbulent. I just don't see how they will compete in an environment like this because its only going to get more difficult.
If the DOJ ever gets any obscenity prosecutions going that will have a major impact on things. Most webmasters will shit their pants and bail out fast if guys you know on GFY start getting arrested.
The best thing we have going for us is the universe of Internet users is going up and up and up for years to come. This will help offset the impact from all the other problems.
I think more and more adult guys will explore setting up mainstream sites and finding clever ways to derive traffic into their adult sites from them.
I think the adult webmaster "middle class" is going to shrink and you're going to see more of a have lots and have nots situation.
The main thing is the demand for porn will continue to increase every year as more people become addicted to it and spend more time searching for elaborate niche sites to fulfill their complex fantasies.
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