Will there be more or less production in 2010
 

I just got into a dicussion with some friends about the state of production in the adult industry.

One of the big agencies told a producer friend of mine that they are not going to lower girls rates, and in fact increase the prices of some of their models, because they think that production is going to increase in 2010.

I strongly believe that there will be a lot less production in 2010

I feel that more programs are going to close their doors, as many programs will not be able to garner enough traffic to attract new customers to offset the decline in rebills.

What do you feel 2010 has in store and why?

2010 has more in store..

2008 and 2009 were a shakeup... but you can't fight peoples inner need to spend more than they earn, and greed can only take a backseat for only so long. 2010 will be a year that I think will see some return to the old ways.and I personally am looking forward to it.

Depends on the company.

I can shoot an entire month's worth of content for much less than others. I still recoup that expense in the first 30-45 days of clips sales. Which does not take into account DVD, memberships, licensing.

This economy would have to get a whole lot worse before I would truly be effected. I run a bigger risk worrying about bank declines then production costs.

:2 cents:

I disagree that irrational spending by companies is going to be the catalyst for an increase in production.

Is all of your content footjob content that you put on Clip4Sale and similiar sites?

No no.. not companies... consumers. But it's cyclical... see. consumers will spend spend spend.. and then companies will be flush with cash again... and well, everyone will have a short memory, and it'll be back to good times in 5-10 years. Then of course, we will have another recession in about 15-20 years..

I do not shoot footjobs or males. Only female.

Foot fetish, foot worship, stockings, bare feet, and tickling. I do not deviate.

I post on clip store(s), but I also have membership site(s).

Even if consumers start spending again, where do you see the increase.

The reason there was so much production was as result of the a strong DVD sales and subscription based sites.

Both of these revenue streams are down, way down

I do not see them returning to previous levels no matter what the economy does.

I am assuming your production costs must be pretty low

If you don't mind me asking what does the average clip cost you to produce.

I shoot very different then a lot, not all, other providers.

I will simply say, I shoot so many scenes per shoot or session, and leave it at that. I do not shoot on a per scene basis. I am working on adding in HD and some other things to step up quality in 2010, and even that will barely effect the bottom line. At least in cost.

I have always shot this way. It simply is how I prefer to run the business. I am about profit and max. margins on ROI. I do not care about ego or being Mr Pretty Picture. I simply am out to make the most money. I have found a formula that works, in both the short and long term.

I can simply out shoot, out update, out produce my competition easily.

Got it, since all of your production is based out of Michigan I assuming that the models are pretty inexpensive and that you book them for day rate.

Hats off to you for finding a formula that works for you.

:thumbsup

Yes. Works very well. However, as I said, I run my business from the point of cost control, and max. return on the investment. I shoot a lot of scenes, and can get a lot of girls for good prices. I am one of the highest paying companies in Michigan for models. Which helps keep them lining up. I have more women applying for work then I could possibly ever use.

I realistically could shoot and shoot and shoot and be updating my sites with 3-5 new scenes every single day, or shoot for years in advance. But it simply is not realistic. It is always like giving away TOO MUCH for $29.95 or whatever. Even now with some 1000 scenes for that price. It is almost crazy.

You have found a formula that works for you, much like how we have found a formula that works for us by doing the majority of our shoots live.

Later in 2010 is when the real financial crisis will begin. You're just seeing the tip of the iceberg. Wait until all this spending, printing and borrowing catches up and unemployment skyrockets.

can't believe some people still shoot content for adult...

do they live off charity and donations I suppose?

allot less

Our scenes vary in price as we have varied niches to cover.

Some scenes dont cost anything, due to guys paying the models at our parties, our studio doesnt cost apart from utility bills, however others work out more expensive with travel, model fees and the fee for the place we are shooting on.



@Porno dan, Our first dvd is due out any day now so I know we shall be filming a larger amount and a more variety of film in 2010 :thumbsup

Why would consumers want to spend money for porn when Tubs are free.

My view is that the cost of bandwidth will decrease a lot in 2010 which will lead to Tube sites offering even better encoding (the short coming of tube sites now is the lower quality video) which will lead to more consumers using Tube sites and not paying.

If you are a content producer get into the live game, many of my clients are doing that and we are producing more software for live then VOD.

Jay
objectcube.com

I totally agree with you

I know how much you guys shoot, and if you think there will be a lot less content produced that is saying a lot.


Almost all of our shoots are being broadcast live.

Having guys pay to have sex with models and you filming them would get you locked up in the States, it is considered prositution.

You guys are about the only ones I know of who will be shooting more in 2010.

Here is the problem with asking this question now (Jan 2 2009).

Most people are emotional sissy boys, so because its Jan 2 the start of a new year, they have to yell and scream all this motivational hope garbage and cant see the facts at the moment.

If you would of asked this same very question Dec 20 2009 you would of gotten more of an honest answer from people.

Having said that, I agree with you 100% and anyone who disagrees is a total fool.

Signups are down across the board, I don’t care what you offer, they are down, mainstream products adult products, paysites etc, im diversified enough to know facts, not the silly fiction most here shit out of their mouth.

Am I hopeful, well yeah, but so are the several million people who buy lotto every day. You can’t just sit back and relax because you are hopeful, when Moses and the Israelites arrived to the red sea and he had the Egyptians chasing after them, the Israelites where hoping that the sea will split in half. God tells Moses to raise his stick over the oceans and the Sea will split. The question is did god really need Moses to lift his stick for him to split the sea? The message is, being hopeful is cool but you must make an effort too.

Unfortunately it’s a double whammy, not just is business down because of the overall economy, fraud and free porn its also down because of lack of innovation, and I can credit that to the lazy bums all over the place, there is opportunity out there, ideas, money etc. but to many lazy fucking dicks who will have to be wall mart greeters at age 75 because they are currently lazy pieces of shit.

Sites are completely closing shop, and I don’t blame them, this is a business not a charity organization, if you can’t make money move on.

You will have to really understand the surfer, how he/she behaves in order to sell him/her anything, adult or non adult. But again making changes = taking action and that is going against the incredible laziness that is going around.

My goal for this year is simple, shake off every lazy fucker around me, these people have negative attitudes and are full of excuses and will kill your business, symptoms of a lazy fucker? Well you throw out an idea that involves him doing something and he throws back 100 reasons why it’s not a good idea or why it’s best to do it next week Friday, but here is the kicker, if you would of told him you are hiring someone to do that same concept for you he would of told you wow def. sounds great. It’s kill or be killed, these people are your enemies, so move on.

Let’s go over a few real examples and discuss the laws of progression.

AOL provides dial up service – At one point they had over 35 Million subscribers, they where taking in about a billion dollars a month just off that. In 1998 They where urged to start looking into buying a cable provider so they can start the process of providing high speed services to their clients. They where on CNBC claiming that since most people only use it for email and don’t spend much time online the cost of $60 a month (back then on avg) won’t be justified. That was pure laziness talking. Today we all know what aol has, jack shit, they had 35 million subscribers and they could have been the largest high speed internet provider today. Verizon now is working on fios and without a doubt in 5 years from now everyone will be surfing using fiber and wifi will be as common as water regardless where you are.

Blockbuster – founded in 1985, by far the place where several million people rent DVD’s a day, in 1998 they where asked over and over about if they feel netflix will have an effect on their business. They replied by saying that part of the movie watching experience is going to a stroe and renting the movie. Well this year alone that attitude can be credited to the closures of 980 blockbuster stores, and netflix has over 8 million people using that service. AGAIN the root cause of this stupidity is laziness, because making change means taking action. In turn blockbuster will be a company off the map within a few years.

Barnes and Noble – by far they could have been the amazon of the online world, they should have been the ones to innovate a product like kindle, heck they where around since 1920! But the laziness and the constant telling themselves that nah the consumer is happy and amazon wont make it is why they will soon join borders and start closing store after store.

I have made tons of mistakes by not being realistic with myself of where certain things are going, and by listening to others and not going with my gut feelings on things. I am making this post not to insult anyone but rather to share my point of view. But once I started changing my mindset god helped and things started to work out.

Everything progresses.

Pigeons – telegrams – faxes – email

Office phone where a secretary answers and manually plugs in a line to get you transferred – regular phone systems – automated pbx – speech recognition ivr’s

Dialup – DSL – Cable – Fiber

Cell phone large and bulky – Smaller – Analog – Digital – all the way to now complex tiny computer in your hand touch screen (remember those palms with a pen?)

Records – Cassettes – CD – MP3’s

BBS – AOL / Yahoo Chat – Dating Sites – Social Networking Sites / Twitter World

I can go on and on, to think that this won’t continue is stupid. Figure out where the progress is going and start working within that right now. Stop asking mommy and the girlfriend what they think of your idea.

Not being lazy goes against human nature, that’s why 99% of this planet is poor. Go against the grain, maybe live like Geroge Kastanza for a day and do everything the opposite you would usually do.

There is no doubt the next stage in porn will be 3D quality jerk off material, notice I said jerkoff material, not 20-40 minute flicks but rather 5 minute loop quality to the point jerk off stuff.

Dating and social networking are about to change too and so will every industry.

Walt Disney had a interesting way of thinking, when his engineers presented him with something he’s always say “let’s plus it”, that’s why even some of the stuff they produced in the 50’s is still considered advanced even by today’s standards.

Here is a tip, if you have say an idea about a new concept for a site, ask yourself the following “If a site like that would have been around already, what would you do to beat them?” Take your answer and make that your project.

Thinking what I wrote is junk is ok, but not reading it because it’s too long further will prove the laziness inside.

Happy New Year to all and I only wish the best to everyone, Im happy when I see people happy and making shit loads of money!

Personally i dont think it can get worse then 2009!
We caught the lag and bulk of the resession and it hurt a lot of companies and industries, heck the Vancouver model industry is officially dead becourse of it.

I have no doubts that 2010 will pick up in many ways.

Good post EB

clif notes or didnot read it

Why do think production will pick up?

There must be a cause for an effect, what is going to be the cause for it to increase.

I have no idea about this, so I am not going to choose any option in the poll.

2009 was just the start my long hair friend with a cool name.

Jack.. good stuff.. most points are dead on. Crazy to see a monster company like AOL not follow through properly..

to add, an associate of mine forwarded me this one day recently.. I agree with some points but not all... I dont mean to threadjack but I wanted to add to this great commentary.



1) Adult video is a perfectly competitive market.

a) This means that the consumer doesn't care who makes the content, who's in the content or what takes place in the content. The consumer is only interested in jerking off.

b) The marginal cost of delivering 1 jerk-off worthy piece of content approaches zero. No matter how you slice it, even if a content scene cost $10000 to shoot and edit, the marginal cost of delivering that scene over the internet approaches zero. At 100,000 views, that marginal cost is $0.10+bandwidth and falling. The more popular the content, the lower the marginal cost. The fixed cost of shooting the scene approaches zero as the number of views approaches infinity.. and at infinity the cost = cost of bandwidth to show the scene. In a perfectly competitive market, price = marginal cost and there is zero economic profit.

2) Prior to the internet, the adult video market operated as a monopoly-cartel

a) One of the main defining traits of a monopoly is a very high barrier to entry. Before the internet and during the video / DVD era, there were many barriers to entry: Cost of production (physical cost of making video tapes / DVDs for inventory), limited distribution sources (competition for distribution). There are also barriers to entry in general that exist in adult, and they are moral and ethical barriers. Many people will simply not enter the adult space because it conflicts with their moral or ethical beliefs. These barriers exist today. Prior to the internet, there existed a "barrier to comsumption". This barrier was a social barrier created by what one had to go through to consume adult content. A consumer would have to either go to a theater (sketch-bag), go to an adult video store (sketch-bag), or wait until they were in a hotel room (social faux-pas, limited access as compared to the size of the market as a whole).

b) The video producers operated as a cartel: a group of homogeneous producers making a commodity artificially inflated the price of the commodity by controlling the supply. The supply was restricted by the barriers to entry mentioned above. There were also barriers to consumption also artificially propped up the price of the commodity

c) The internet has done the following: Destroyed the adult video cartel, removed all physical barriers to entry (geographic included) and removed the barriers to consumption. The net result? The global market for porn has exploded and the destruction of the cartel has opened up the supply.

So why are people upset? Because they believe that the artificially high price of porn in the past implied value. Unfortunately, the true nature of adult content is being hased out by a free market: There is little to no value in adult content and it is a pure commodity, like water.

Content producers overvalue their work and are scrambling to fabricate barriers to entry, thinking that the 'value' is being stolen by consumers abusing the internet as a medium of distribution. This is exactly the same as the music industry - except the difference is that musical artists have intrinsic social and economic value. Adult 'artists' have little to no intrinsic value. This is upsetting to some.

The record companies are dying a slow death because the market has called them out - they do not add value... but money is still being made by the people that do add value in the music industry: the companies that provide a cohesive distribution platform (eg itunes), the artists them selves, concert promoters and advertisers, etc.

The market is telling the adult industry something loud and clear: We do not value your content.

The future of the adult internet is crystal clear: Mass production of content by a small number of companies, mass distribution of content by an even smaller number of companies and a shift of value to non-commodity content: live sex / live adult interactivity.

If you produce content, you are going out of business unless you plan to be the biggest and/or have a plan to leverage your low-value content into high-value revenues.

HAHAHAHAHA!!!!



You are so right!!!!

Excellent post man. This is turning into a great thread. :thumbsup

nice post eb

Well said fine sire.
:thumbsup

Bravo fine sire.... bravo...

I have nothing to add to EB and Adam.

and I already know from our contracts that 2010 will be less than 2009 - unless we acquire a good amount of new clients.

Our sales have picked up in every venture we have, every single one.
We will be shooting less ourselves but outsourcing to 2-4 Production companies.

Why are we not producing ourselves?
Just a LOT more profitable having other people shoot for us, letting us focus on producing a few small niches we know.

The amount of people working in this business is shrinking with each passing day which allows our primary clients to gain more ground!
Thereby ordering more from us....

As i see it everything is being reinvented right now, but still needs 12-18 months to truly settle in.

We grew by
200% 2007-2008
100% 2008-2009
150% 2009-2010

If you know what you are doing and don?t operate your business out of fear, willing to adapt You will be ok.

I have already bought more content in 2010 then i did 2007-09
Granted we offer 7-9 services today as supposed to 07 where we had 2

Anyways i like where this business is going at the moment, most don?t and will suffer the consequences from being too proud to spread out.

You should spread out and find more alliances, having more clients wont get you in the safezone.

I am surprised to hear the feed business is doing so well for you.

You are an exception that you are increasing your production.

Someone pay Adam X for the piece of advice he just gave, damm :thumbsup!

I think you are "spot on" with your post.

I see you have a background in economics, which I can appreciate since I have a BA in Economics from George Mason University.

We are taking our content and spreading out multiple revenue streams, DVD sales, broadcast, hotel and chain deals, video on demand, mobile, subscription based sites, live shoots etc...

well, what can i say, we have been talking about a couple of things, i gave you quite a lot information but I have yet to hear back from you :winkwink:

Ahh you are looking at our feeds, well that is our smallest revenue source to be honest with you, but that being said probably the most stable/reliable.
We do not produce FOR the feeds, its just one more revenue source from content produced/bought

The feeds are also one of our newest, just announced in Vegas last January.

Next B2B content related project has been in the works and i expect that i can announce that in 2 months :thumbsup

We will end up doing something together im sure of it!
I have one more venture i need out of the way before i can commit to anything new but that is not far off at this point.

Mine will stay the same. But obviously a lot of companies have already stopped shooting pretty much. And seems the bigger the company, the less ability they have to adapt. So the bigger ones will continue to shoot less. When I read what you said about model agencies talking about raising models prices...well, that is just wishful thinking on their part.

I'm glad I do what I do. I wouldn't trade places with 99% of the companies out there for anything. They are in a world of hurt, while my little plan that everybody thought couldn't work 2 years ago just keeps on making money. :)

On a last note for a bit i will say this!

In 2010 people need to get their head out of the sand and start talking to the guy next to you.
There is FAR too much "mind your own business" - "non responsive" business owners today, more then ever actually and i do not see how they will survive.

Widen your horizon :winkwink:

There will be *less* professional porn production: internet free porn is undermining the established business model.

There will be *more* homemade porn production: the proliferation of mobile camera devices will turn users into producers.

Just as the bright producers will turn into Amateur producers... = a TON more content shot, cheaper models, the list goes on.

Anyone that for a second thinks that this will be bad for business should think outside the tiny box they are in :)

Edit: This will and have already opened up for emerging markets such as Argentina, East Euro markets "not including CZ and Hungary as they are blown out of porpotion already", Mexico, again list goes on.

If the original question was!
Will there be less porn produces in North America, Western europe?
then YES...i see 9 of 10 companies shutting down if all they do is productions!

"Professional" porn is a dying business model few can afford.

This is exemplified in the movie, "Boogie Nights". Particularly the part about porn moving from cinema to video tape. Less professional actors, directors, and big budget flix to what we have had with the introduction of VHS.

Just like Burt Reynold's character. You adapt or die.

A lot of truth in the statements made here, and it does not have to be one truth that will prevail....Several different things can be happening at the same time.

Just as TV stations move to reality programs spending less per hour on programs other subscriptions services have increased their ambition and productions....So you get both BIG BROTHER and HBO 's THE WIRE.

The technology that destroyed porn film production is coming full circle and as the quality increases its potential returns to that film look. For lots amateur shot porn will look great on their phone but for others it will be unwatchable on their home cinema system.

People will still pay for material they can't get for free or just for the ease and safety of use.

A lot of the problems of the industry seems to me to be caused by itself...The amount of material which is pumped out in the form of galleries and promotional materials and the short life time it is up, has produced an audience which could watch free material 24 / 7.

A slow down and a reduction of the sheer amount of free stuff would help...I suspect that major sites pump it out more to drown the competition than to make sales.

An attitude that a website can be built just on links and others materials means that there are 1000's of very small websites with no real originality or content.

Websites which have real original content still have traffic which converts when sent on to paysites.

We have a few affiliates who send us good traffic. A lot who send so small amounts they will never be able to judge on our conversions. But we ourselves make the most sales through are own efforts of google/ adwords/ galleries...

I am always puzzled by us not having more affiliates as really it works out that on average affiliates earn $0.10 per click they send us.

So that means that people are earning more than $0.10 with other sites, so things can't be that bad can they?

We are still in production but we have seen production in the UK shrink but that could be down to poor models and model agencies.

So we look to Prague and Budapest for talent. Also we see no point in shooting another girl on couch clip, but will be continuing to make a few high value movies with the best looking girls we can find. Like 1) a musical, 2) a comedy 3)short story based on classic literature...In fact the opposite to what people would expect and to appeal to an audience that like the erotic but don't like the woman hating low quality crap porn

( no offense - as The Godfather said I don't mind how a person makes his living)

I just to show its not all from one side I bought a membership to a Czech Site and downloaded all their movies, and I thought it was great value for money. 3 months on I still havn't watched it all and the girls are hot.

http://www.cinemaerotique.com/pp/CinemaEgirl008.jpg

Shooting more like this soon....

Great thread!