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Alexa isn't the end all, be all...Sites aren't dying.
It's no secret that some of the larger sites are dipping in Alexa. Yes, newer sites are surpassing them with their traffic numbers, but it doesn't mean that the traffic to said older sites are dropping. It's just that more and more high volume sites are appearing, thus dropping the ranks of some sites even though the traffic may be the same.
I know people know that Alexa isn't fully accurate, but unless you are seeing where a site stands in relation to the rest of the sites on the web, you can't assume that a rank drop is a traffic drop. Hell..The traffic may be retaining or even increasing, but of course some of the tube sites are entering the market with some serious numbers, pushing everything else down. The true question is whether or not profits are dropping. From what I've seen with TGP and MGP, the numbers are still looking very similar to the past. You need to realize that tube formats are different, and that TGP and MGP surfers are a bit more set in their ways. Unless that generation of people dies away, those formats should have their surfers built in for quite some time to come. I know this conversation is getting old, but there are way too many threads popping up with sinking graphs. Please throw your 2 cents in... I'm curious as to what people think about this spin on the great MGP/TGP debacle. |
why use alexa when it doesnt give you real traffic. compete does not lie.
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generally, when the less informed can't make a point with $$$, they try to make one with Alexa. :winkwink:
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Is there some sort of accepted multiplier for compete? I looked at 3 different sites and compared to server stats - 1 site gets more unique visitors in 2 days than compete says it does in a month. Another site gets as many uniques every 5 days as compete says it does monthly and still another receives what compete says it does in a month in 3 days.
At least with Alexa I'm familiar enough with it's bullshit to guess at reality, but compete is off by miles unless there is some accepted multiplier that brings it back into the real world? |
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You have people embedding vids on Myspace, facebook, other social networks, etc. The sheer traffic within social networking sites can bring up the volume alone. This probably adds a bit of hit inflation and also makes going viral much easier than it is with a TGP or MGP. In other words, the viral methods of MGP and TGP stay within those networks. People are more likely to say "look at this video!" than "check out this porn site"...They look less perverted. :winkwink: To sum it up, yes the tube sites are seeing more and more traffic. However, it doesn't necessarily mean that other sites are dying. I can tell you first hand that I have sites on Alexa that were top 5k, and have dropped to around 7-8k... Oddly enough, my traffic has increased. People are surfing more than ever, and aren't limiting their days to 1 or 2 sites. attention spans are small, but the 'old dogs, new tricks' adage holds true. Those who surfed MGP and TGP for years, will probably stay in their comfort zone until they are forced to move onward and upwards. |
some good points
you should re-read your own post and start utilizing new sites based on your viral marketing thoughts.. you maybe the next traffic fad inventor :) We have noticed a huge diversity from pics to moves over the past 18-36-months, This entire scenario is no surprise to us, the only thing we are upset about is alot of these old time classics dont understand anymore and thats where we get scared.... We have age old contracts no longer renewing because they are doing so poor. This sites don't understand why they are not making money on our site no more, while new comers with new technology are converting at 5 times the old... Sad to see relationships like that die. Just tells you personally, You have to remember that although you might have been a huage success in the past and now a classic, but that doesnt guarantee you a future... Times move and they move fast |
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maybe to some extent but over all i think my comments hold true. There is generaly speaking "x" amount of traffic. If more people are ending up on tube sites because of it being viral or in social site networks or whatever, then they get to see lots of porn for free on that tube site. If they see it there why they still going to go to a site like the hun afterwards.. makes no sense.
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These tube sites are not hitting them up with pop up hell, or viruses or spyware etc... they try it once they hooked. Its not a comfort issue, its the simple fact that they just dont know about these tube sites yet. |
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yeah alexa is total crap i am sure google, yahoo and myspace and craigslist, and all of those sites are not really top 50 sites, they probably get much less traffic, silly alexa. |
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However, a bookmark is a bookmark. People may choose MGP's over tubes for varied reasons. Maybe it's because they actually LIKE looking at galleries to find a new paysite to visit because they want quality, and not some grainy flash clip. Maybe they like watching in an external player without having to pass it through a software converter. TGP surfers will continue to enjoy pics without question, as maybe they don't care to surf free porn vids. Maybe they use pics to preview a site, and want the bulk of the content once inside. Maybe their connections just suck and pics are all they can view efficiently. Not every surfer loves strictly movies and not every surfer is on a high speed connection. Now I'm getting away from my initial point however. Will MGP's and TGP's die? Eventually it probably will slow. This doesn't mean those sites have to let it die though. They can always change formats to adapt, and their built in base will put these sites back at the top once again. Did the music industry die when mp3's ran rampant? A part of it did, but other avenues opened. Some of the originators benefited, while the stubborn fell behind. I don't see the porn industry as being that much different. A few years this back, we all thought MGP's were the death of the industry. It's been the opposite. :2 cents: |
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It is sad to see people failing to adapt, and falling by the wayside. Hopefully they either stashed away enough to retire, or they will eventually research the new avenues of adult web promotion. |
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gee, alexa must be onto some rocket science to figure those ones out:1orglaugh take 10 of your own sites, look at your own stats, then compare them with how alexa ranks them... I bet that alexa is extremely wrong in the comparisons.... I know I see huge discrepancies between my own |
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If their connection is so slow that they can only see pics, i don't they are the type to signup to a membership site. Sure some people might like just pictures over videos but i bet you could count "those" people on 1 hand. I personally think the people who own tgps are trying to justify this in their heads any way they can so they can make themselves feel better and that everything is fine. Instead, they should be looking the issue right in the eye and doing what they need to ensure they will continue to make money beyond their tgp site. I am a non biased onlooker, i do not own a membership site and I don't own a tgp, but this couldn't be any clearer what is happening here and where things are going. Quote:
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I don't think it is perfect, for from it. but if alexa ranks a site in top 100 and another site 5,000 i think it is safe to say the one in the top100 gets a lot more traffic then a site ranked 5,000. thats my point. |
if things get bad, i can always go back to my job at Stucky's
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alexa is a good indicator as it measures all sites using the same method(as used by tv etc) a sample audience ,thats a simply fact.:)
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i've found that in general, the people making less money are the ones crying about how inaccurate this data is. while the people making more seem to either agree or just don't care.
that data is good enough for me! |
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My point is that the sky is not falling and that sites are dropping due to the traffic being spread around to many more sites. Those who want to adapt, will...And they will be in on the ground floor and they will be the ones on top in a few years. Those who are established previously will either adapt, or do their best to keep their core base loyal. Also, saying that you cannot compare online porn to music is a bit of a stretch. You are talking about a tangible product, but a paysite membership is somewhat close, and much more than a freebie surfer can see. On 1 hand you have shitty flash streams, and on another you have HD videos that can be downloaded and watched on a 62 inch HDTV. Those who want a tangible product can get one by joining a quality member site. |
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So you're saying people are visiting both tube and the tgp and mpg sites? What reason would they have to keep looking at tgp/mpg sites when all they have to do is type what they want into the search on the tube sites and get it all? The only hope to keep people intrested in the old methods is that the tube model isn't profitable. And as for "adapting" and going the tube route...if people were responsible and only allowed certain length movies and such, even then the submitter no longer has a job as surfer joe is doing that job for them and there will only ever be a handful of these big tube sites. Unlike mpg's where they keep circle jerking the traffic around tube sites have no reason to do this because people just keep coming anyways.
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Why keep eating free hot dogs, when you can get steaks for free. |
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People may choose MGP's over tubes for varied reasons. Maybe it's because they actually LIKE looking at galleries to find a new paysite to visit because they want quality, and not some grainy flash clip. Maybe they like watching in an external player without having to pass it through a software converter. TGP surfers will continue to enjoy pics without question, as maybe they don't care to surf free porn vids. Maybe they use pics to preview a site, and want the bulk of the content once inside. Maybe their connections just suck and pics are all they can view efficiently. Not every surfer loves strictly movies and not every surfer is on a high speed connection. --------- As far as everybody making tubes and the traffic model changing... Current bandwidth prices don't make it possible for joe schmoe to enter the market and expand without worries of going broke with bw overages. Sure there are ways around it with hotlinking, etc...but surfers have and always will be able to tell a quality site vs. a cookie cutter. Also, keep in mind that the person that wanted free porn to begin with (and that used to get it on MGP's and TGP's), will still avoid paying for it by these new methods. The buyers that had wanted to purchase memberships before will still be doing so. This will not change, unless the tube is nothing but stolen shit without linkbacks. A tube is no replacement for a high quality membership site, and surfers who want quality will always know this. It seems like the people with the most fear of the market change seem to be people who don't own TGP's, MGP's or their own high traffic networks, but those who rely heavilly on submitting MGP and TGP galleries. I can see how this would be intimidating...gallery submitting is a decent part of my income as well, but diversification and adaption is key if you don't want to be the fat that is trimmed away. Anyways, I digress... Back on topic! Does everybody seem to believe that dropping Alexa rankings are in fact due to dropping traffic, or is there just a larger traffic pool than before due to the rise in viral marketing? |
Alexa and all other statistics services will always be inaccurate for smaller sites because the sample is smaller. They look through a relatively small window at what people are surfing and extrapolate the data.
Also, who compares sites on RANK any more? The reach and page views stats have been available for at least a couple of years... |
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No matter what someones opinions are on tube sites there is no denying that they are currently the biggest porn sites online and that is not something to just try and brush off. The real advantage they have over quality membership sites is variety. Someone can view a few clips from facial abuse, then some playboy vids all on the same site, all for free. Of course mpg's offer variety too but not at the length tube sites do, and i sure as hell hope mpgs don't think they can adapt by demanding their submitters to submit longer movie clips. That will just make things even worse. The more people feel entitled to free porn, the less will buy, in my opinion. And it doesn't help that so many people, especially the younger generation feels only losers pay for porn. |
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alexa bases its "polling" on users that have chosen specifically to install the alexa toolbar, they do not have anywhere close to a sampling of typical internet users in their data |
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besides your ass, where else does your opinion come from? |
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Ok, lets say that 10% of your sales are from people who just want to look at pictures and dont care about videos. I think that is being way to generous but we can use 1 out of 10 for the sake of arguing. Can you opperate your site and cover your expenses and make a profit if you lost 90% of your sales ??? Seriously who cares if you can count the sales on 1 hand, and 1 hand a day can add up over the course of the year if that doesn't amount to enough money to allow your business to opperate. think people. think. How much profit do you make on a membership site? 20% (again for arguments sake), thats what you can afford to lose. if you lose more than that then your business starts losing money and not making money. You don't need to lose 100% of your business because of stolen content on tube sites or because of spyware. You just need to lose 20% of your business to them and you are fucked. |
I have 4 paysites in the top 5000 and alexa is very wrong. Compete is pretty much accurate on all sites I have checked. Alexa still ranks old school sites higher despite the fact they dont get nearly as much traffic. The guys who say Alexa is right and Compete is wrong are dont have sites to gauge by. Period.
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see my stats regulary updated numbers at end of that topic. http://www.gofuckyourself.com/showthread.php?t=710918 |
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See thats the thing right there.... TGPs sell ad spots. What TGP is going to say, yes alexa is correct our traffic is declining. It would affect who wants to buy advertising from them since you are not paying per the click. They would have to reduce the amount of their ad spots if people see their traffic is dieing. I guess the best way for them to reply to this is that tube sites don't affect them, their traffic is really going up each month, and alexa is shit. For Sponsors, what sponsor wants to admit that very few people promote them. If they have an alexa rank of 1 million, ofcourse they are going to tell us alexa is shit, because a rank of 1 million probably means 50 people a day or less are hitting their site. Doesn't make their program look to popular. :2 cents: |
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