JP513 calls Obama landslide for one reason -->>> inside

[JP513]

People always seem to forget that polls are conducted by calling *home* phone numbers, not cell phones. That means the polling data does not include the people who have a cell phone only: young people! 18-25 age group mostly. Young people are at least 3:2 in favor of Obama, maybe 2:1. That's the reason.

A few other factors to look at:

1. Whatever Bradley affect we see in the popular vote will be outweighed by the black turnout also not represented in current polling data.

2. The remaining tossup states where there is a small black population will go to McCain (Montana, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio), while those with a large black population will go to Obama, like Florida, Virginia and North Carolina.

So my predictions are:

~ Obama wins by a 6% spread.
~ Obama gets at least 320 Electoral College votes.
~ McCain wins Ohio by at least 5% even though he's trailing in the polls (Bradley affect)

Okay . . . so let's see if I am proved right in a few days.

[Mutt]

sorry if that's the voting demographic you're counting on - kids in that age group are all talk no walk - they won't be going out to vote just like every other generation of their age didn't go out to vote. people in that age group worry about ONE thing - themselves. that's just the way it is. there's a reason people in their young twenties are still called 'kids' - because they are ....... kids still.

[JP513]

Originally Posted by Mutt

sorry if that's the voting demographic you're counting on - kids in that age group are all talk no walk - they won't be going out to vote just like every other generation of their age didn't go out to vote. people in that age group worry about ONE thing - themselves. that's just the way it is. there's a reason people in their young twenties are still called 'kids' - because they are ....... kids still.

Heh! Excellent point. I pretty much agree with this assessment of the 18-25yo demographic, under normal circumstances. They usually are self serving and don't turn out.

But this is a very unique election, don't you think? You have one party who has a nominee that totally inspires the faithful, and I think that inspiration not only will translate to the youth vote this time, more than ever before, but I think it will ESPECIALLY inspire the young, as they are more succeptible to inspiration and soaring rhetoric than any other group of people. They haven't become cynical yet. They actually believe everything he says.

The other party has McCain and he has not inspired any of them. Only the passionately pro life kids who would always vote (Republican) anyway no matter what.

[Drake]

"I'm also often asked about the rising use of cellphones. The number of people ditching their home telephones has spiked in recent years, with the highest percentages among young adults and nonwhites. Does this affect the polls? Probably not -- or at least not yet. The exclusion of cellphone users appears to have no more than a minimal effect on the results. But even if these voters turn out to have been systematically underrepresented in this year's polls, that would actually mean that Obama had an even larger lead, because these voters overwhelmingly back him over McCain. And both the Gallup and Washington Post-ABC tracking polls interview complementary samples of voters who have only cellphones to make sure that we're not missing something. (Few state polls include cellphone interviews.) "

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...103103044.html

[JP513]

Well, #1, no pollster is gonna say "yeah, we're not very accurate." And #2, it really has nothing to do with the rising use of cell phone. It has to do with the declining rate of actually HAVING a landline, and who that demographic is. I'm not saying it's going to be anything other than a factor in the polling--Barack has the vote, just by more than we see in the polls.

He will lose some votes due to Bradley effect, but more than offset it by the increased black turnout, which will be more than the polls show, and the unpolled cellphone only kids, who I think till turn out in record numbers for their age group.

My call is still Obama by a 6% margin, with 320 or more electoral votes.

[aniloscash]

what about states with high hispanic populations. I somehow suspect they are not comfortable with a black guy. and are more likely to not admit that to pollers. That makes it possible that nevada and new mexico and even colorado might go mccain.

[JP513]

I am officially gloating about the Electoral College result. Some news organizations have also called it a "landslide." Only for the E.C. though.

But I guess I was wrong about the popular vote, saying he would get 6%, when he only has 4% now, though I wonder if that will stretch to 5% by the time all votes are counted.

[DWB]

Yea yea yea... you have been telling me he was gonna win. You were right, I was wrong.

Blah, blah, blah. ;-)

[JP513]

Originally Posted by JP513

But I guess I was wrong about the popular vote, saying he would get 6%, when he only has 4% now, though I wonder if that will stretch to 5% by the time all votes are counted.

Hmmmmm, looks like I was right after all!!! 6% margin of victory by the time the votes were counted!

[JP513]

Originally Posted by DirtyWhiteBoy

Yea yea yea... you have been telling me he was gonna win. You were right, I was wrong.

Blah, blah, blah. ;-)

I rock.

[JP513]

Originally Posted by aniloscash

what about states with high hispanic populations. I somehow suspect they are not comfortable with a black guy. and are more likely to not admit that to pollers. That makes it possible that nevada and new mexico and even colorado might go mccain.

Of course it was possible. But all 3 of those states went to Obama! They seem comfortable enough with a black guy.