People always seem to forget that polls are conducted by calling *home* phone numbers, not cell phones.
That means the polling data does not include the people who have a cell phone only: young people! 18-25 age group mostly. Young people are at least 3:2 in favor of Obama, maybe 2:1. That's the reason.
A few other factors to look at:
1. Whatever Bradley affect we see in the popular vote will be outweighed by the black turnout also not represented in current polling data.
2. The remaining tossup states where there is a small black population will go to McCain (Montana, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio), while those with a large black population will go to Obama, like Florida, Virginia and North Carolina.
So my predictions are:
~ Obama wins by a 6% spread.
~ Obama gets at least 320 Electoral College votes.
~ McCain wins Ohio by at least 5% even though he's trailing in the polls (Bradley affect)
Okay . . . so let's see if I am proved right in a few days.
