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Oracle Porn · 11-01-2006, 03:40 AM

HOW THE FUCK can the same traffic 1 day convert 1:700 and the other day conver 1:2500...how is this possible?

MrMaxwell · 11-01-2006, 03:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oracle Porn

HOW THE FUCK can the same traffic 1 day convert 1:700 and the other day conver 1:2500...how is this possible?

Well,
Are you an affiliate?
Shaving... possible?

Also, the idiots there today ain't the same idiots who were there yesterday.. well, most of them..

bobby666 · 11-01-2006, 03:45 AM

maybe it has something to do with the increase of sunspots

mrthumbs · 11-01-2006, 03:46 AM

i thought so to.. tech errors.. shaving etc.. but for the last years since im running my own stuff 100% i still have days like that. Just a cominbation of many factors that SOME days end up in a statistical nightmare.

mrthumbs · 11-01-2006, 03:54 AM

here, ive made a little simulation based on a random generator:

This example assumes 50.000 hits are sent DAILY to a program converting 1:500.

You see how results vary some days..

www.mcredits.com/rand.php

DWB · 11-01-2006, 03:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oracle Porn

HOW THE FUCK can the same traffic 1 day convert 1:700 and the other day conver 1:2500...how is this possible?

No shit. I get twisted thinking about that exact thing. One day I will kick total ass and think "shit, if it stays like this all week I'm gonna clean house" and then the next day it's as if all my pages were 404s.

When you figure it out, hit me up please.

Theo · 11-01-2006, 04:00 AM

nice script man

mrthumbs · 11-01-2006, 04:03 AM

See what happens when you send smaller amounts of traffic.
For example:

25000 hits per day:
http://www.mcredits.com/rand.php?hits=25000

10000 hits per day:
http://www.mcredits.com/rand.php?hits=10000

5000 hits per day:
http://www.mcredits.com/rand.php?hits=5000

With 5000 per day youll go from 1:200 to 1:1500 or so..

Secret to low conversions: LOTSA TRAFFIC ;)

Internet Guy · 11-01-2006, 04:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrthumbs

here, ive made a little simulation based on a random generator:

exactly, nice work.

Violetta · 11-01-2006, 05:35 AM

It's just like that from time to time! Yesterday was GREAT! Some days before that SUCKED!

en21 · 11-01-2006, 05:37 AM

try to get more SE traffic... It converts better

andrej_NDC · 11-01-2006, 05:41 AM

Do you think regular shops have make the same $$$ every day? They may have the same amount of people going in every day, but profit varies a lot. The less traffic you have, the more it varies.

andrej_NDC · 11-01-2006, 05:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrthumbs

See what happens when you send smaller amounts of traffic.
For example:

25000 hits per day:
http://www.mcredits.com/rand.php?hits=25000

10000 hits per day:
http://www.mcredits.com/rand.php?hits=10000

5000 hits per day:
http://www.mcredits.com/rand.php?hits=5000

With 5000 per day youll go from 1:200 to 1:1500 or so..

Secret to low conversions: LOTSA TRAFFIC ;)

Thats a great tool.

LB-69 · 11-01-2006, 05:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oracle Porn

HOW THE FUCK can the same traffic 1 day convert 1:700 and the other day conver 1:2500...how is this possible?

In our case the convertions never go up and down much, however ammount of sales can vary from day to day. Sometimes it double itself from the previous day, one of my affiliates told me that hundreds of reasons out there for such a divercity. Weather, politics, sports, hollidays etc etc. Still it makes this unable to calculate and predict exactly your future earnings.

pigman · 11-01-2006, 07:27 AM

Cause it varies.

Tom_PM · 11-01-2006, 07:33 AM

Yes. Simple as that. Because it varies. Show me a retail store that has the same number and dollar amount of sales per day. It's not possible

Have you been spreadsheeting your sales and traffic by day? week? month? hour? The more data you compile as you go, the easier it is to predict somewhat sales trends. Plus it'll give you somewhat of a general range and you'll know better when there is a statistically significant rise or fall.

I think we often forget that we're dealing with people, and people are fickle as hell. Impulsive, emotional, quick to judge etc etc. Sometimes sales are great and it's hard to explain. Some days they just suck and it's hard to explain. But it's rare to actually have a statistically significant deviation from established norms.

Matt 26z · 11-01-2006, 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oracle Porn

HOW THE FUCK can the same traffic 1 day convert 1:700 and the other day conver 1:2500...how is this possible?

If 1:700 is the best you are doing, then I'd change sponsors anyway. That ratio is really bad.

fukt · 11-01-2006, 08:26 AM

Theres a load of variables. Its just the way it goes.

OG LennyT · 11-01-2006, 08:29 AM

Heres your answer, go back to business school.

vvq · 11-01-2006, 11:18 AM

increase your data range. day to day of course there are going to be swings. examine month to month, year to year for accurate conversion ratios.

squishypimp · 11-01-2006, 11:20 AM

your dealing with free minded people, market trends, etc.

MandyBlake · 11-01-2006, 11:21 AM

different people...also just because someone has looked at your site before and not joined, doesn't mean they won't look at it again and join.

andrej_NDC · 11-01-2006, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LB-69

In our case the convertions never go up and down much, however ammount of sales can vary from day to day.

One thing contradicts the other.

Kimmykim · 11-01-2006, 11:35 AM

The law of averages is constant only when there is enough data to actually calculate a real ratio.

Manowar · 11-01-2006, 02:38 PM

They will always vary day to day, i think its a rule in this industry now LOL

LB-69 · 11-01-2006, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrej_NDC

One thing contradicts the other.

Nothing is conradict...lets say the ratios yesterday and today is around 1:300 with, but yesterday was 70 joins and today only 35...

Dollarmansteve · 11-01-2006, 02:50 PM

#1. cuz its not the 'same' traffic.

#2. Volatility over time.

Case 1

[img]http://www.contingencyanalysis.com/glossary/images/ex1_volatility.gif[img]

Case 2

t (case 1) < t (case 2)

sickkittens · 11-01-2006, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pigman

Cause it varies.

Way to explain that one.

chaze · 11-01-2006, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dollarmansteve

#1. cuz its not the 'same' traffic.

#2. Volatility over time.

Case 1

[img]http://www.contingencyanalysis.com/glossary/images/ex1_volatility.gif[img]

Case 2

t (case 1) < t (case 2)

WTF

11-01-2006, 03:45 AM	#3
bobby666 boots are my religion Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Heart of europe Posts: 21,765	maybe it has something to do with the increase of sunspots __________________

11-01-2006, 04:03 AM	#8
mrthumbs salad tossing sig guy Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: mrthumbs*gmail.com Posts: 11,702	See what happens when you send smaller amounts of traffic. For example: 25000 hits per day: http://www.mcredits.com/rand.php?hits=25000 10000 hits per day: http://www.mcredits.com/rand.php?hits=10000 5000 hits per day: http://www.mcredits.com/rand.php?hits=5000 With 5000 per day youll go from 1:200 to 1:1500 or so.. Secret to low conversions: LOTSA TRAFFIC ;) Last edited by mrthumbs; 11-01-2006 at 04:04 AM..

11-01-2006, 05:35 AM	#10
Violetta Affiliate Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 28,735	It's just like that from time to time! Yesterday was GREAT! Some days before that SUCKED! __________________ M&A Queen

11-01-2006, 05:37 AM	#11
en21 Confirmed User Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 2,640	try to get more SE traffic... It converts better __________________ Free Asian Sex : http://www.asian4free.com Free Amateur Sex : http://www.lustamateur.com Free Porn : http://www.mysexbookmark.com Free Sex : http://www.goliathlist.com Free Hardcore : http://www.xlust.com Sex For Free : http://www.sexforfee.com

11-01-2006, 07:33 AM	#16
Tom_PM Porn Meister Industry Role: Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 16,443	Yes. Simple as that. Because it varies. Show me a retail store that has the same number and dollar amount of sales per day. It's not possible Have you been spreadsheeting your sales and traffic by day? week? month? hour? The more data you compile as you go, the easier it is to predict somewhat sales trends. Plus it'll give you somewhat of a general range and you'll know better when there is a statistically significant rise or fall. I think we often forget that we're dealing with people, and people are fickle as hell. Impulsive, emotional, quick to judge etc etc. Sometimes sales are great and it's hard to explain. Some days they just suck and it's hard to explain. But it's rare to actually have a statistically significant deviation from established norms. __________________ 43-922-863 Shut up and play your guitar.

11-01-2006, 03:40 AM	#1
Oracle Porn Affiliate Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Icq: 94-399-723 Posts: 24,433	Almost 5 years in this fucking business and I can't understand.... HOW THE FUCK can the same traffic 1 day convert 1:700 and the other day conver 1:2500...how is this possible? __________________

11-01-2006, 03:46 AM	#4
mrthumbs salad tossing sig guy Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: mrthumbs*gmail.com Posts: 11,702	i thought so to.. tech errors.. shaving etc.. but for the last years since im running my own stuff 100% i still have days like that. Just a cominbation of many factors that SOME days end up in a statistical nightmare.

11-01-2006, 03:54 AM	#5
mrthumbs salad tossing sig guy Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: mrthumbs*gmail.com Posts: 11,702	here, ive made a little simulation based on a random generator: This example assumes 50.000 hits are sent DAILY to a program converting 1:500. You see how results vary some days.. www.mcredits.com/rand.php

11-01-2006, 04:00 AM	#7
Theo HAL 9000 Industry Role: Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 34,515	nice script man

11-01-2006, 05:41 AM	#12
andrej_NDC Registered User Industry Role: Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 7,760	Do you think regular shops have make the same $$$ every day? They may have the same amount of people going in every day, but profit varies a lot. The less traffic you have, the more it varies.

11-01-2006, 07:27 AM	#15
pigman Confirmed User Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 760	Cause it varies.

11-01-2006, 08:26 AM	#18
fukt Registered User Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Skid Row Posts: 36	Theres a load of variables. Its just the way it goes.

11-01-2006, 08:29 AM	#19
OG LennyT Wall Street Pimp Industry Role: Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 14,345	Heres your answer, go back to business school. __________________ Tradeking - my online broker \| 4.95 a trade \| make real $$

11-01-2006, 11:18 AM	#20
vvq Confirmed User Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: TrafficGigolos.com Posts: 2,732	increase your data range. day to day of course there are going to be swings. examine month to month, year to year for accurate conversion ratios. __________________ SQUIRTING - LESBIAN SPANKING - TITTY FUCKING - WET PANTIES - MORE We offer free hosting, your own designer (works for free), and unsaturated content for gallery and free site submitters. Just contact me! E-mail: [email protected]

11-01-2006, 11:20 AM	#21
squishypimp PostMaster General Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,781	your dealing with free minded people, market trends, etc. __________________ Signature For Sale

11-01-2006, 11:21 AM	#22
MandyBlake The one and only! Industry Role: Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Atlanta, GA Posts: 17,761	different people...also just because someone has looked at your site before and not joined, doesn't mean they won't look at it again and join. __________________ Mandy's Playhouse Her First Fat Girl If you're interested in promoting my sites, ICQ me! 178411921

11-01-2006, 11:35 AM	#24
Kimmykim bitchslapping zebras!!!!! Industry Role: Join Date: Jun 2001 Location: In a shack by the beach Posts: 16,015	The law of averages is constant only when there is enough data to actually calculate a real ratio.

11-01-2006, 02:38 PM	#25
Manowar jellyfish Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 71,528	They will always vary day to day, i think its a rule in this industry now LOL

11-01-2006, 02:50 PM	#27
Dollarmansteve Confirmed User Join Date: May 2005 Location: T.O. Posts: 2,849	#1. cuz its not the 'same' traffic. #2. Volatility over time. Case 1 [img]http://www.contingencyanalysis.com/glossary/images/ex1_volatility.gif[img] Case 2 t (case 1) < t (case 2) __________________ I died. Last edited by Dollarmansteve; 11-01-2006 at 02:53 PM..