Almost 5 years in this fucking business and I can't understand....
 

HOW THE FUCK can the same traffic 1 day convert 1:700 and the other day conver 1:2500...how is this possible?

Well,
Are you an affiliate?
Shaving... possible?

Also, the idiots there today ain't the same idiots who were there yesterday.. well, most of them..

maybe it has something to do with the increase of sunspots

i thought so to.. tech errors.. shaving etc.. but for the last years since im running my own stuff 100% i still have days like that. Just a cominbation of many factors that SOME days end up in a statistical nightmare.

here, ive made a little simulation based on a random generator:

This example assumes 50.000 hits are sent DAILY to a program converting 1:500.

You see how results vary some days..

www.mcredits.com/rand.php

No shit. I get twisted thinking about that exact thing. One day I will kick total ass and think "shit, if it stays like this all week I'm gonna clean house" and then the next day it's as if all my pages were 404s.

When you figure it out, hit me up please.

nice script man

See what happens when you send smaller amounts of traffic.
For example:

25000 hits per day:
http://www.mcredits.com/rand.php?hits=25000

10000 hits per day:
http://www.mcredits.com/rand.php?hits=10000

5000 hits per day:
http://www.mcredits.com/rand.php?hits=5000

With 5000 per day youll go from 1:200 to 1:1500 or so..

Secret to low conversions: LOTSA TRAFFIC ;)

exactly, nice work.

It's just like that from time to time! Yesterday was GREAT! Some days before that SUCKED!

try to get more SE traffic... It converts better

Do you think regular shops have make the same $$$ every day? They may have the same amount of people going in every day, but profit varies a lot. The less traffic you have, the more it varies.

Thats a great tool. :thumbsup

Re
 

In our case the convertions never go up and down much, however ammount of sales can vary from day to day. Sometimes it double itself from the previous day, one of my affiliates told me that hundreds of reasons out there for such a divercity. Weather, politics, sports, hollidays etc etc. Still it makes this unable to calculate and predict exactly your future earnings.

Cause it varies.

Yes. Simple as that. Because it varies. Show me a retail store that has the same number and dollar amount of sales per day. It's not possible :)

Have you been spreadsheeting your sales and traffic by day? week? month? hour? The more data you compile as you go, the easier it is to predict somewhat sales trends. Plus it'll give you somewhat of a general range and you'll know better when there is a statistically significant rise or fall.

I think we often forget that we're dealing with people, and people are fickle as hell. Impulsive, emotional, quick to judge etc etc. Sometimes sales are great and it's hard to explain. Some days they just suck and it's hard to explain. But it's rare to actually have a statistically significant deviation from established norms.

If 1:700 is the best you are doing, then I'd change sponsors anyway. That ratio is really bad.

Theres a load of variables. Its just the way it goes.

Heres your answer, go back to business school.

increase your data range. day to day of course there are going to be swings. examine month to month, year to year for accurate conversion ratios.

your dealing with free minded people, market trends, etc.

different people...also just because someone has looked at your site before and not joined, doesn't mean they won't look at it again and join.

One thing contradicts the other. :)

The law of averages is constant only when there is enough data to actually calculate a real ratio.

They will always vary day to day, i think its a rule in this industry now LOL

Re
 

Nothing is conradict...lets say the ratios yesterday and today is around 1:300 with, but yesterday was 70 joins and today only 35...

#1. cuz its not the 'same' traffic.

#2. Volatility over time.

Case 1

[img]http://www.contingencyanalysis.com/glossary/images/ex1_volatility.gif[img]

Case 2

http://www.contingencyanalysis.com/g...volatility.gif

t (case 1) < t (case 2)

Way to explain that one.

WTF :1orglaugh