baddog

Don't ask the question if you can't handle the answer. How many brand new programs have you seen that talked about their great conversion ratios, and fabulous retention rates? Join the crowd, everyone's idea has never been done.

To answer your question, no.

quiet

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baddog

in fact, I will take it one step further . . . I am getting ready to launch a project that will include almost every affiliate program out there, and most people will get in for free, but there is no way I would waste the ad space for a program that is only paying 25%, unless it had been up for a while and had proven success . . . not just the speculative word of the program owner.

Mango

[QUOTE=charly]They are planning on something around 35 Euros a month.
QUOTE]

OK, so that's like $10 affiliate income/month.

Well, if this site would be converting and retaining like crazy, I don't see any problem at all. I'm just not sure if it will be able to compete against the established sponsors, their payouts and conversion ratios...

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Voodoo

Mutt

if it did happen that somebody had a site where you could make much more at 25% than on sites offering 50% then yes there are smart webmasters out there who pick up on it - and keep their mouths shut.

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quiet

however, if you were dependent on sales from outside traffic, then i can't see you ever becoming that big at 25... ever.

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2HousePlague

I'm SOOOO relieved.


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Paul Markham

I would agree.

Bottom line is what counts.

2HousePlague good post and now you can see why so many have $100 weekends and so many shave.

My question was simple would you promote a unique idea that converted better but paid less. That could not be duplicated easily

But too many thought it was clever to misread or mis interpretate what I said about Bang Bus than to answer the question.

Mutt you are right there are magic sights out there. But if you think webmasters would not promote a site based purely on the % they got rather than the bottom line you are thinking about the wrong kind of webmaster.

The owners have crunched the numbers and come up with the following. 50% is not profitable at the present price, raising the price will lower the conversions. so they have two options. For every hit that comes from the affiliate program at 50% another hit comes that can't be traced, shaving, paying out 25% and building a site that converts much better and keeps the member longer. Producing a better imcome for everyone.

This guy has already thought outside the box and except that this will be a unique site.
The right attitude.

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baddog

$45/mo is pretty steep . . . and when you say you are dealing with something unique, are you shooting one-legged midgets or something? A naked chick, is a naked chick, is a naked chick.

Paul Markham

So you don't think you can make money while I'm around?

Try competing with me rather than wishing.

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2HousePlague

Okay, I guess I have my answer (implicit in all the opinions expressed here).

What WOULD it take for a sender of serious traffic to IGNORE the mechanics and particulars of conversion, and focus JUST on his return?


j-

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Some Recurring programs just jump in the scene build up a base and knock out the payouts under the guise of closing a program then live on the base themselves.

That pretty much should keep some folks in check regarding recurring programs.
Ya better make sure they been around a while before jumping in.

Wasnt there a program recently that did that?

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Voodoo

Everyone should give up now. There's no money in porn. This Phantom Project ate it all, and is only paying out 25%. Fuck it. I'm going to mainstream.

Paul Markham

8 months you might just see someone come up with a similar site, whether it will be as good is debateble.

But an 8 month start would be awesome.

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IceMaster

Yes , i would but the site must be a good site and the idea too.

Paul Markham

Agreed there are BRAND NEW programs launched daily. Give me one that is different and I will give you a prize.

This one is different and that's the unique thing about it. Except that is is totally unique then give me the answer.

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baddog

It could have something to do with the source.

Plus, you just have to love the "a site that converts 1:50 at 25% with members staying longer" comment on a site that does not exist.

Voodoo

My Synopsis:
Charly says, "Hey, so this guy has an idea and I think it's really cool. He spent a SHITLOAD of money on it, and wants to make his money back! Do you think it will work?"

Paul Markham

Very true. It will have to prove itself, few would take it on off chance. Unless they were giving 100% for one day and shaving the arse off of it.

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baddog

It looks like English, but I can't understand a word you're saying.

Dalai lama

You cannot guarantee 1:50 conversions to any of your affiliates

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Voodoo

No offense Charly, but this thread would have been more interesting if you had just posted a smiley.

Paul Markham

And these are the 10% who send 90% of the traffic.

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Mango

One question : if your site would be converting that well, why would you put your energy in a webmaster referral program and not just buy tons of traffic to feed it with ? Might turn out to be cheaper, too.

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baddog

When you put it like that, yeah, I do promote products that pay 25%, but they are all hard goods.

Paul Markham

Another tunnel and track thinker.

I would of expected more from you.

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baddog

hahahaha . . . what's really funny is that not more than 10 minutes ago I was telling Paul that he would have to include hookers at the prices he was talking about

Paul Markham

Of course at the moment I was asking a question. Maybe the wrong place to ask and maybe not.

Those who really can drive and convert will look at two thing, the check at the end ot the week and the money spent to get it.

Some here look at the % and the free gifts.

At 25% I will probably employ people to submit and earn a profit from it. If it is as good as I expect.

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Nydahl

honestly Charly I think you are making 1 mistake.Ok lets say idea is great.Lets say content (whatever it is) is topnoch.But the sources of traffic are still the same - that is very important and maybe more important then the quality level of the content.
Also you said its impossible to copy the idea in a short time.Ok when did they start it up?Considering tech equipment they must have started like 3 years ago (using 3 mpix olympus - joke)- if not then its just a metter of time (not so long) to copy that.4 000 000 is nothing , you can't even a buy a good house in Prague for this change.
If the idea is so great then somebody copy that and make that investmet pretty fast - you might be surprised.
Also you mentioned conv. ratios 1:200 comparing with 1:50 - man do you have an idea what it takes to get any paysite on 1:200 ??
Maybe I am not right but ussual paysite is about 1:1500 , good 1 is about 1:900 and the top sites must be like 1 :300 - maybe I am not right and pls correct my numbers if so.
I run www.outdoorpiss.com for few days with excl. content (and its very niche site) and it looks like it converts in 1:250 (too soon to judge) but its very hard to do it man , very hard.

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Paul Markham

Again someone who has a problem with English.

I said would you promote it?

Who asked if it would work?

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Nydahl

reading this - you are right man
so my answer should be - need to count the numbers.Have to try.Everybody (not talking about baddog - ) knows that 25% of 1 mil. is more then 50% of 100K.
btw my english sucks too but its still better then your Czech bro (after some years you live around) - just kidding I know you are too lazy to learn.

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Paul Markham

Agreed, some will convert at 1:50 and others will swear the whole thing does not work.

Look at the discussions around paid spots on The Hun and Worldsex traffic, some say it's gold dust others swear blind it fools spending money for listings.

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JOKER

To make it simple:

I promote what makes me more money in the long run.

If this happens to have 25% revshare but generates more profit longterm, yes I would promote it.

It basicly all comes down to Traffic sent, Profit generated - correct me if I'm wrong.

My

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2HousePlague

Sorry for the lapse in responsiveness -- I took a sex break.


Exactly! OMFG!


How about this version, with my "edits" to clarify the message...



j-

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baddog

I think that was my point

Yeah, that is what they all say

I have no idea what that is supposed to mean

Dalai lama

That's what i said, he cannot guarantee any 1:50 ratios at all ( no one can ). He said he was new to this part of the industry and at all, he got no clue what he is talking about. You're quite right about the numbers, it all depends on the kind of traffic affiliates send to the site. A overall ratio of 1:50 is impossible even with cheap trials or anything.

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Paul Markham

Already planned on that side. I'm talking about an affiliate program.

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baddog

There is only so much that you can do legally with sex and nudity, although I have given it a shot.

Dalai lama

If some affiliates can hit the 1:50 with your program because they have SE traffic, or any other type of high quality traffic. They most proberly can hit that ratio with anyone else ( who does pay 50/60 sometimes 80% even with programs who offer unique/exclusive content ), with your 25% you will not get their business even if your production costs where $10 million, they dont care. It's about their pay check.

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Mutt

no sorry charly they aren't - the 10% who control 90% of the traffic aren't those people - and those percentages are no longer valid in my opinion - there's been a democratization of adult traffic over the past 5 years, the whales aren't as big as they once were, there's a much bigger wider group of medium sized traffic people out there. but the whales who still are a big force, whether they are 90% or 60% wouldn't sent your friend any traffic - their traffic is spoken for, whales trade traffic with other whales for the most part, it's smart business for whales and for smaller webmasters to do business that way.

there are other ways but your friend has a big challenge. If he's spending that much money on the production side he better be prepared to spend alot on the traffic side.

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Finally some realistic numbers...

Gottis

Is it 8 months or:

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Voodoo

You're right. Sorry Charly... Here's the edited version:

My Synopsis:
Charly says, "Hey, so this guy has an idea and I think it's really cool. He spent a SHITLOAD of money on it, and wants to make his money back! Would you promote it?"

jayeff

I stopped reading near the bottom of page one, so I hope I'm not covering too much ground others already have. But Charly, I think you are wrong about this on several levels:

First, no-one with an unstarted project in a business like ours can tell you categorically that they can or cannot pay out a specific percentage. Their ability to pay out at all depends initially on how well capitalized they are, and in the long run on the volume of business they attract. Within reason, his payments and charges should be determined largely by marketing considerations. Then he has to make the sums add up.

Secondly, logic has little to do with pulling in affiliates, which is why so many sponsors are trapped into paying affiliates as if it were still 1997. There are a handful of programs (and it isn't coincidence that they include some of the best sites), which didn't allow themselves to be forced into inflated payouts. But they all started when the market was much easier and they have all had the benefit of time over which to establish a reputation among affiliates.

If your friend has a project with the appeal you anticipate and the capital to fund it for years rather than months, he can go with a "low" payout and should do so (the reason online porn is still only 5% of the total porn market is because almost everyone is selling an over-priced, under-specified product partly through greed, but mainly because of over-paying affiliates). But he is going to be buying traffic for as long as it takes for word to get out that yes, here is a program that pays well, despite the superficially low payments.

Next (although this may not be relevant to your friend's project) I think you are wrong about Bangbus. Not that they didn't do a great marketing job, nor that in purely qualititative terms their content is anything special. But their content was different. The colors, textures, camera angles: all were something apart from what every other site was offering at the time. I'm not a porn customer and like every other webmaster I get exposed to too much porn to sit up and take notice very often. But when I saw their stuff the first time, my immediate reaction was wow, this is going to sell. My reaction had nothing to do with the "reality" angle (I even thought that was silly enough it would put some people off). It was due entirely to the photography and I had a similar reaction to the output from PerfectGonzo. Both have something extra that I would give my right arm to find among the piles of "quality" but utterly mundane content I have to trawl through every month.

justsexxx

I think you are overrating the rebill effect. Also, when it would retain sooooooooooooooooooooo amazingly well, why not offer PPS? Like 30 a trial...When it's indeed soooo good, you will make money from it, ask the newbs at nastydollars :D

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fünkmaster

...never give the talent access to the web, same applies for the guys behind the camera, don't swap it for a keybord.

2HousePlague

"A click is a click is a click..."

Or is it?

Let's back up a minute to consider why the notion of so (as scalar values go) "small" an increase in profitabilty (as required in charly's hypothesis) poses such an intellectual hurdle for so many of you.

Perhaps it has something to do with the units.

Personally, I'm all in favor of lovin' and tweakin' a site until it's reached its full conversion potential (as defined by the optimal [highest] convergence of price and recurrence factor).

But, there is NO WAY to extrapolate those lines beyond certain practical limits, inherent and inescapable in the recurring model, as we know it today.

I agree -- you can only ask ONE person to pay SO much per MONTH for access to a DIGITAL ASSET.

But, is it really so difficult to envisage what would, perhaps, given today's understanding of traffic monetization (and accompanying models), be aptly described as a RADICAL departure from the current revenue-against-asset models?

Maybe it is.

But, let me suggest to you a way to scale profitability into the future, that transcends the current "instinctual" limits of both revenue-per-traffic-event, and traffic-event-yield-against-asset.

The psychology and "sell mechanics" of the individual user, paying with his personal CC might just go out the window!

I couldn't tell you when, exactly, but we ARE on the path to a future that won't be limited by the PURELY TRANSACTIONAL margin calculation of an acquired User and that same User's individual revenue result.

It has happened many times in history, in many types of industry -- there is an "inflection point" in the evolution of demand patterns, or production costs, or both, after which the basic definitions of "customer" and "product" change so much, and in such extreme ways that "profit" may be affected by orders of magnitude.

The application of "industrialization" (as a process), as best understood by historians of commerce taking a wide enough perspective over markets and the processes that serve them to TRULY observe the kind of transformation I?m speaking of, has NOT YET happened in the online realm.

We?ve been too distracted by the technology itself, so pervasive in all we do, that we have failed to observe that our ?business? is still very much in its infancy ? as determined by one essential test: a change in the definition of ?customer? that results in both an increase in our ?vertical distance? from the end user AND the insertion of a PROFIT OPPORTUNITY for a (?value-adding?) INTERMEDIARY PARTY, the combined result of which is a higher ?retail? price -- owing to the ?finer management? of demand-against-price by a party more familiar with the customer than we ever could be.

Basically, we?re all still rolling out our pushcarts every morning to find customers for ourselves.

VAR = ?Value Added Reseller?



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Rui

sorry but seems like this thread is full of wishful thinking, anyway if the idea is that good and the results are worthy you wouldn't need to ask such question

Tho with 25% revshare...the results better be nothing short of amazing...