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Discuss what's fucking going on, and which programs are best and worst. One-time "program" announcements from "established" webmasters are allowed.

 
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Old 12-27-2004, 06:47 AM   #101
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Old 12-27-2004, 06:47 AM   #102
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so alex do you even promote pps programs these days?
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Old 12-27-2004, 06:55 AM   #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego
Show me a program that 60% or more of their current members rebill month after month : ))
LOL you was the one who started with the 40-60% math I do not say, many programs have such good retention.
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:04 AM   #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego
That is a good question. Prior to launching our program, I did a pretty extensive spreadsheet based on two programs with various payouts.
They were 60% revshare, PPS with 25.00, 30.00 and 35.00 payouts.

Consider these variables:

$3.95 trials
$34.95 full memberships
14% CC processing fees

Assume you have a 40% trial conversion to full memberships and each month 60% of those full memberships continue to rebill.

Lets evaluate how much 50 trials are worth.

50 trials less processing fees: $170.00

50 x 40%=20 full memberships: $600.00

Month 2 - 60% of those 20 will rebill which is 12: $360.00
Month 3 - 60% of those 12 will rebill which is 7.2: $216.00
Month 4 - 60% of those 7.2 will rebill which is 4.3: $129.60
Month 5 - 60% of those 4.3 will rebill which is 2.6: $77.76
Month 6 - 60% of those 2.6 will rebill which is 1.6: $46.66
Month 7 - 60% of those 1.6 will rebill which is .9: $27.99

Total dollars earned from those original 50 trials after 7 months: $1628.00

The value of those 50 trials is worth $1628.00/50 trials or $32.56 each

The question affiliates should ask, is what is the value of each trial not what is the value of each member.

If I was to pay $30.00 per join, I am left with $2.56 per join after 7 months.
Don't forget, that is $2.56 per join using the variables of 40% trial conversions and 60% of those continue to rebill each month.

So the question is, will $2.56 per join cover all the overhead costs of running a paysite? I think we know the answer is no. If the answer is no, then how can there be so many programs out there that offer these outrageous payouts of 30.00 - 45.00 per join?

Yes I know, I can earn dollars on exits, cross sales, upsells, email cancelled members...etc....I have figured that into my spreadsheet as well. So then that must mean these programs are making their income based on these other means of generating revenues. Hmmmm, really?....makes you scratch your head.
Excellent work
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:05 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by andrej_NDC
of course, its not that easy to have 40% trial to full conversions on all types of traffic, therefore I said, that programs with GOOD retention can pay per SU easily, others cant
Isn't it the big boys supposedly with the crappy members areas that are always paying out the highest PPS?
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:06 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by andrej_NDC
you was the one who started with the 40-60% math I do not say, many programs have such good retention.
Isn't it the big boys supposedly with the crappy members areas (which translates into bad retention) that are always paying out the highest PPS?

I'm seriously inquiring, not judging or condemning.
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:10 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by Mike33
Isn't it the big boys supposedly with the crappy members areas (which translates into bad retention) that are always paying out the highest PPS?

I'm seriously inquiring, not judging or condemning.
yes, some of them have really bad members areas...but for example if you get $5 NET on each sale(PPS program), its harder for a program that get 100 sales a day to pay that, than for a program with 5000 sales per day...they get the profits on high volume
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:11 AM   #108
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Originally Posted by bigdog
so alex do you even promote pps programs these days?
I promote PPS and revshare but the PPS programs I do promote, I have a long relationship with and I don't get 30.00 - 35.00 PS...not even close.

The traffic I send to PPS programs are all from SE traffic too.
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:12 AM   #109
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Originally Posted by andrej_NDC
yes, some of them have really bad members areas...but for example if you get $5 NET on each sale(PPS program), its harder for a program that get 100 sales a day to pay that, than for a program with 5000 sales per day...they get the profits on high volume
is anyone really doing 5k joins a day accept maybe the python crew
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:16 AM   #110
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is anyone really doing 5k joins a day accept maybe the python crew
I know at least 2 programs with 5k+ a day, except ND/bangbros
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:23 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by andrej_NDC
yes, some of them have really bad members areas...but for example if you get $5 NET on each sale(PPS program), its harder for a program that get 100 sales a day to pay that, than for a program with 5000 sales per day...they get the profits on high volume

It is all relative regardless if a program does 100 sales per day or 5000 per day.

100 sales per day with 30 PS has to pay out 3k per day or 90k per month

5000 sales per day with 30 PS has to pay out 150k per day or 4.5 million per month

What that tells me, you better have plenty of start up capital....LOL

Forget salaries and overhead....you need around 1.5 million in reserves just for a program that is doing 100 sales per day....lol

Numbers don't lie and never will...sorry but I minored in mathmatics....lol
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:29 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego
It is all relative regardless if a program does 100 sales per day or 5000 per day.

100 sales per day with 30 PS has to pay out 3k per day or 90k per month

5000 sales per day with 30 PS has to pay out 150k per day or 4.5 million per month

What that tells me, you better have plenty of start up capital....LOL

Forget salaries and overhead....you need around 1.5 million in reserves just for a program that is doing 100 sales per day....lol

Numbers don't lie and never will...sorry but I minored in mathmatics....lol
yes, thats true, when starting a PPS program, the owner needs to have enough reserves to pay for the joins. Even a revshare program that start offering PPS needs to have tons of capital for the first months...
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:30 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by andrej_NDC
yes, some of them have really bad members areas...but for example if you get $5 NET on each sale(PPS program), its harder for a program that get 100 sales a day to pay that, than for a program with 5000 sales per day...they get the profits on high volume
I'm just thinking that the actual number of sales per day wouldn't make a difference in profit margins because that would assume that the ratio in Alex's calculations changes at some value of sales.

For instance, even if the program is doing 5000 in sales it would still be losing in the end if we assume that 40% trial conversion become full memberships and each month 60% of those full memberships continue to rebill.
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:33 AM   #114
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For instance, even if the program is doing 5000 in sales it would still be losing in the end if we assume that 40% trial conversion become full memberships and each month 60% of those full memberships continue to rebill.
how can they lose money when they make $37 per sale only with rebills? As I heard before, PPS programs often dont pay on check, dialer and other revenue, so add another 20-30% to it + cross sales, upsalles, mailings(each member email is worth $3+ for sure)
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:35 AM   #115
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if pps programs are shaving, what techniques are they using to shave so they don't get caught by an affilate doing test joins
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:38 AM   #116
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if pps programs are shaving, what techniques are they using to shave so they don't get caught by an affilate doing test joins
the "sorry" method, you will make a test sale, it wont show in your stats, you make a thread on GFY about it or email them, they will add the join and tell you, we are sorry, it was a bug in the system and the sale wasnt credited properly. Everybody on GFY says what a great job they did (if they like the owner of the program) and after few days nobody remembers...
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:38 AM   #117
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Originally Posted by Mike33
I'm just thinking that the actual number of sales per day wouldn't make a difference in profit margins because that would assume that the ratio in Alex's calculations changes at some value of sales.

For instance, even if the program is doing 5000 in sales it would still be losing in the end if we assume that 40% trial conversion become full memberships and each month 60% of those full memberships continue to rebill.
Exactly my point Mike...you will always lose reagrdless of how many joins per day comes through the program....if you net 5.00 per join, it is still 5.00 per join....LOL

I think you understand Mike : ))
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:42 AM   #118
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Wow.... interesting. Some of you guys are paying way to much for exclusive content. God Im glad I shoot my own.
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:44 AM   #119
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Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego
Exactly my point Mike...you will always lose reagrdless of how many joins per day comes through the program....if you net 5.00 per join, it is still 5.00 per join....LOL

I think you understand Mike : ))
you dont see the difference? if you make 500 sales and then start making 5000 sales, doesnt mean that your costs are 10x like before, the hosting costs are higher, the content costs are the same, but the revenue is 10x higher.
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:46 AM   #120
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I'm just thinking that the actual number of sales per day wouldn't make a difference in profit margins because that would assume that the ratio in Alex's calculations changes at some value of sales.

For instance, even if the program is doing 5000 in sales it would still be losing in the end if we assume that 40% trial conversion become full memberships and each month 60% of those full memberships continue to rebill.
so you say that 100 sales a day and $500 net profit is the same like 5000 sales a day and $25000 profit?
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:47 AM   #121
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Originally Posted by andrej_NDC
how can they lose money when they make $37 per sale only with rebills? As I heard before, PPS programs often dont pay on check, dialer and other revenue, so add another 20-30% to it + cross sales, upsalles, mailings(each member email is worth $3+ for sure)
You need to contact me and show me how each members email is worth 3.00....better yet....I'll give you my entire database of emails for 1.50 each.

You can double your money....LOL
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:50 AM   #122
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This wins "Thread of the Week"
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:56 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego
You need to contact me and show me how each members email is worth 3.00....better yet....I'll give you my entire database of emails for 1.50 each.

You can double your money....LOL
Alex, although I still disagree with you on certain cost factors, I have to admit you are very good at crunching numbers
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Old 12-27-2004, 07:59 AM   #124
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so you say that 100 sales a day and $500 net profit is the same like 5000 sales a day and $25000 profit?
It is still 5.00 net per join and that is if you have 40% trial conversions and 60% rebills...I can tell you, there are very few programs that can do that.

The programs with 30-50 front ends and the same garbage feeds for the members area are not even close to doing that.

At 5000 joins per day (Extremely hard BTW...LOL) is 4.5 million per month in payouts at 30.00 per join. We already established it takes approx 7 months to make the 5.00 net or $25k from the original 5000 joins. You would need around 30 million in reserves just to stay afloat.
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Old 12-27-2004, 08:00 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by andrej_NDC
how can they lose money when they make $37 per sale only with rebills? As I heard before, PPS programs often dont pay on check, dialer and other revenue, so add another 20-30% to it + cross sales, upsalles, mailings(each member email is worth $3+ for sure)

how much your emails are worth depends if you can get whitelisted and wind up in a surfers inbox
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Old 12-27-2004, 08:00 AM   #126
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Alex, although I still disagree with you on certain cost factors, I have to admit you are very good at crunching numbers

Thanks : ))

I just love the numbers game.
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Old 12-27-2004, 08:07 AM   #127
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how much your emails are worth depends if you can get whitelisted and wind up in a surfers inbox
Good point bigdog....emails today are not worth nearly as much as 3-4 years ago especially for porn.
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Old 12-27-2004, 08:18 AM   #128
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It would be great if a PPS program paying beyond $35 per join would jump into this thread and show how the numbers game can actually work. Actual earnings don't have to be known. Simply substituting hypothetical numbers like "50" and working out the ratios and percentages based on those hypothetical numbers would show that it either works or it doesn't. Dispelling the myth and proving number crunchers like Alex wrong would be more than welcome. I've crunched the numbers myself before and came up with similar values Alex did. I swear on my life that I'd love to know what I'm doing wrong just to know that I'm wrong.

If Alex had included fees, hosting/bandwidth, maintenance, staff, the numbers would have ended up in the red.

I have thought of alternate explanations such as a "loss leader" in which case the PPS actually loses money but the revshare portions, upsells/crossells, mailers, and product sales (tangible like pills or non-tangible like eraser software) pick up the tab. But that too would be rather risky.

I'm not a math wiz. Is there anybody here majoring in math that could do calcuations to make a $35 PPS scenario work out?
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Old 12-27-2004, 08:20 AM   #129
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Alex -

Can you link to that Adult Legal place you speak of where you can license DVD's?
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Old 12-27-2004, 08:22 AM   #130
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Alex -

Can you link to that Adult Legal place you speak of where you can license DVD's?
Adult Legal
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Old 12-27-2004, 08:27 AM   #131
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Thank you.
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Old 12-27-2004, 08:27 AM   #132
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It would be great if a PPS program paying beyond $35 per join would jump into this thread and show how the numbers game can actually work. Actual earnings don't have to be known. Simply substituting hypothetical numbers like "50" and working out the ratios and percentages based on those hypothetical numbers would show that it either works or it doesn't. Dispelling the myth and proving number crunchers like Alex wrong would be more than welcome. I've crunched the numbers myself before and came up with similar values Alex did. I swear on my life that I'd love to know what I'm doing wrong just to know that I'm wrong.

If Alex had included fees, hosting/bandwidth, maintenance, staff, the numbers would have ended up in the red.

I have thought of alternate explanations such as a "loss leader" in which case the PPS actually loses money but the revshare portions, upsells/crossells, mailers, and product sales (tangible like pills or non-tangible like eraser software) pick up the tab. But that too would be rather risky.

I'm not a math wiz. Is there anybody here majoring in math that could do calcuations to make a $35 PPS scenario work out?
Mike....hit me up on icq 74296267 and I'll send you my spreadsheet when I get to the office. I have it broken down extensively where you can enter various variables and see the results.

I doubt you will see anyone come in here with factual numbers to disprove this theory. Shoot, I'm sure I am going to get blasted by some program owners.....LOL
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Old 12-27-2004, 08:55 AM   #133
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Alex, have you read this thread?
http://www.gofuckyourself.com/showth...adid=103026&s=

I am interested what you think about what The Doc wrote there?

thanks
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Old 12-27-2004, 10:01 AM   #134
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I read it back then and laughed and I read it today and the outcome was the same.

$20.00 per email....LOL

It is bullshit. I don't know any nicer way to say it than that.

His numbers are very skewed.

100 sales per day and owners of these programs are living in 1 million dollar mansions, driving exotic cars?

I can tell you we do more than 100 joins per day and I'm not living in a million dollar mansion...my home is 850k but then again I live in San Diego so my home is 1600 sqft built in 1951.....lol
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Old 12-27-2004, 10:21 AM   #135
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what is very intresting to me is that lens is the only one doing high pps payouts with nats, everyone else is revshare
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Old 12-27-2004, 10:28 AM   #136
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being VERY resourceful you could pull it off for 5-7k range. Dont worry 98% of all paysites are average, disregard the previous comments made
That sounds about right. My site is average and it is doing great for average. I dont have hardcore on my site and guys still like me. Dont expect to make what some big porn sites do but you can make a living off of it. Just stay on top of it. Everything I have learned has been from the guys on this site. Post some pic's and i am sure the guys will help you out with knowledge.

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Old 12-27-2004, 10:50 AM   #137
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I've spent 20k on the site I'm about to open....almost all of it on content and programming/design.

The hosting costs don't really come into play until the site is live and people are joining.
Now I'll probably spend a shitload more after I get back from Vegas on marketing, buying traffic, shit like that.
Plus you always have to have to content people constantly going....you need to update often.

Alex's numbers are a little high....content costs will vary depending on your niche. A softcore teen site is much cheaper to produce content for than scenes of a teen getting gang banged by 4 black guys.

But whatever the costs are, a paysite should definitely NOT be your first, or even your third venture in this biz.....you need to be able to support your paysite with traffic that you alone send (or buy) because affiliates are hard to get.
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Old 12-27-2004, 11:07 AM   #138
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Quote:
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i hear naughtyamerica does something like 40% trial to monthly rebill
Its actually better than that....BUT they only charge $24.95 a month, so its easier to get surfers to stay for months on end than it is for sites that charge $40.

But the lower price definitely makes the $$ per member lower.
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Old 12-27-2004, 11:23 AM   #139
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Great thread....

I'm bookmarking it....

It's been a while since I last learned so much from GFY...
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Old 12-27-2004, 11:24 AM   #140
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I've spent 20k on the site I'm about to open....almost all of it on content and programming/design.

The hosting costs don't really come into play until the site is live and people are joining.
Now I'll probably spend a shitload more after I get back from Vegas on marketing, buying traffic, shit like that.
Plus you always have to have to content people constantly going....you need to update often.

Alex's numbers are a little high....content costs will vary depending on your niche. A softcore teen site is much cheaper to produce content for than scenes of a teen getting gang banged by 4 black guys.

But whatever the costs are, a paysite should definitely NOT be your first, or even your third venture in this biz.....you need to be able to support your paysite with traffic that you alone send (or buy) because affiliates are hard to get.
i guess naughtyamerica will lose one of their better affilates now
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Old 12-27-2004, 12:40 PM   #141
fraggle
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ok what about paying on conversion to full membership or fullmember joins

at 35 or 40 bucks memberships you roughly break even paying an affiliate per join after 12-14% fees

1:3 rebilling will net 120 profit per 3 joins over 3 months which on my last pays averaged the rebilling cycle


ok different take on it and rather simple
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Old 12-27-2004, 12:49 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego
Thanks : ))

I just love the numbers game.
I heard revshare works if you offer exclusive content.
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Old 12-27-2004, 12:58 PM   #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunny Leone
That sounds about right. My site is average and it is doing great for average. I dont have hardcore on my site and guys still like me. Dont expect to make what some big porn sites do but you can make a living off of it. Just stay on top of it. Everything I have learned has been from the guys on this site. Post some pic's and i am sure the guys will help you out with knowledge.

Sunny Leone

I think that solo girl/couple sites owned and operated by themselves are a special cases. You don't have to pay any models (because you are the model), you don't have to pay a content provider (assuming your boyfriend/husband shoots the photos of you, you don't need a camera crew), and together you encode your videos and so on. I think most people in this thread are referring to traditional sites where all of that is outsourced. Exclusive content like that costs a lot so you're saving on one of the largest startup costs being the model and owner of your own site. Therefore your site is not 'average' by any means. And on that note, I'm happy to hear you're doing well
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Old 12-27-2004, 01:26 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by bigdog
i hear naughtyamerica does something like 40% trial to monthly rebill
pretty close according to my stats
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Old 12-27-2004, 01:30 PM   #145
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It all depends on the quality of content, if it is exclusive or not, & how much content.
You hit it right on the head. If you put shit in, you will get shit out. We live by the phrase "quality (exclusive) NOT quanity".
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Old 12-27-2004, 01:35 PM   #146
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I would say don't start a paysite. Get some traffic - send it to me and make really good money. Then start a paysite and you can take back your traffic.
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Old 12-27-2004, 01:44 PM   #147
fraggle
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lets b honest about this

i cant see 'big programs' with poorer members areas just throwing it away

but paying 35 on a 2.95 trial makes me seriously wonder how the hell they do make money,especially when they open all their sites up to members
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Old 12-27-2004, 01:53 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by iBanker
You hit it right on the head. If you put shit in, you will get shit out. We live by the phrase "quality (exclusive) NOT quanity".
??? only exclusive content is quality? What has is to do with quality of the content?
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Old 12-27-2004, 02:06 PM   #149
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I just check my 2004 stats with TopBucks, I dont use PPS with them, but revshare.
I have $65 / sale (statsremote)

they pay 80%, but deduct 15% as fees(even when they dont pay 15% with their volume, for sure), 20% is their cut, so they make $100 per sale(including fees) from my traffic.
$100
-$15 fees
-$20 their cut
-$65 my cut

$100 per sale(including fees) just out from rebills, I wont start with the bonus income again.
Of course, they dont make that much for each sale, but I dont think my traffic is so special, some guys can make even more per sale...
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Old 12-27-2004, 02:13 PM   #150
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Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego
That is a good question. Prior to launching our program, I did a pretty extensive spreadsheet based on two programs with various payouts.
They were 60% revshare, PPS with 25.00, 30.00 and 35.00 payouts.

Consider these variables:

$3.95 trials
$34.95 full memberships
14% CC processing fees

Assume you have a 40% trial conversion to full memberships and each month 60% of those full memberships continue to rebill.

Lets evaluate how much 50 trials are worth.

50 trials less processing fees: $170.00

50 x 40%=20 full memberships: $600.00

Month 2 - 60% of those 20 will rebill which is 12: $360.00
Month 3 - 60% of those 12 will rebill which is 7.2: $216.00
Month 4 - 60% of those 7.2 will rebill which is 4.3: $129.60
Month 5 - 60% of those 4.3 will rebill which is 2.6: $77.76
Month 6 - 60% of those 2.6 will rebill which is 1.6: $46.66
Month 7 - 60% of those 1.6 will rebill which is .9: $27.99

Total dollars earned from those original 50 trials after 7 months: $1628.00

The value of those 50 trials is worth $1628.00/50 trials or $32.56 each

The question affiliates should ask, is what is the value of each trial not what is the value of each member.

If I was to pay $30.00 per join, I am left with $2.56 per join after 7 months.
Don't forget, that is $2.56 per join using the variables of 40% trial conversions and 60% of those continue to rebill each month.

So the question is, will $2.56 per join cover all the overhead costs of running a paysite? I think we know the answer is no. If the answer is no, then how can there be so many programs out there that offer these outrageous payouts of 30.00 - 45.00 per join?

Yes I know, I can earn dollars on exits, cross sales, upsells, email cancelled members...etc....I have figured that into my spreadsheet as well. So then that must mean these programs are making their income based on these other means of generating revenues. Hmmmm, really?....makes you scratch your head.
We should examine Oxcash's Bang Brothers Online spin-off of last year. It started as a PPS only program paying $20 per trial and $35 per full membership sold. The BBO sites are cross sold into Nasty Dollars. All exits are credited and are only internal. This is the same as Nasty Dollars (and now Oxcash 5.0) $35 PPS with credit on exits (all exits internal), cross sold into Oxcash. BBO later added 50% Revshare.

$5.95 trial $34.95 monthly

Perfect Gonzo is another excellent example. They have two (now three) exclusive sites priced at $4.95 trial and $29.95 monthly. The key is the internal cross sale and the internal only credited exit.

PPS works if you have exclusive content with serious brand development and either multiple sites or multiple programs to cross sell.

Both programs dedicated a massive amount of effort culling free site traffic directly through its hosted galleries, gallery spot purchases, and internal TGP networks.

Perfect Gonzo's business model is stunning. They relied on no affiliate for traffic. It was all purchased simultaneously for concentrated brand building. Once they juiced the networks for themselves, PG released it to a second tier of webmasters. People always ask how Nasty Dollars and Oxcash keep selling - it's the brand.
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