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Alex From San Diego 12-27-2004 07:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrej_NDC
how can they lose money when they make $37 per sale only with rebills? As I heard before, PPS programs often dont pay on check, dialer and other revenue, so add another 20-30% to it + cross sales, upsalles, mailings(each member email is worth $3+ for sure)

You need to contact me and show me how each members email is worth 3.00....better yet....I'll give you my entire database of emails for 1.50 each.

You can double your money....LOL

kmanrox 12-27-2004 07:50 AM

This wins "Thread of the Week"

DeadFidel 12-27-2004 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego
You need to contact me and show me how each members email is worth 3.00....better yet....I'll give you my entire database of emails for 1.50 each.

You can double your money....LOL

Alex, although I still disagree with you on certain cost factors, I have to admit you are very good at crunching numbers

Alex From San Diego 12-27-2004 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrej_NDC
so you say that 100 sales a day and $500 net profit is the same like 5000 sales a day and $25000 profit?

It is still 5.00 net per join and that is if you have 40% trial conversions and 60% rebills...I can tell you, there are very few programs that can do that.

The programs with 30-50 front ends and the same garbage feeds for the members area are not even close to doing that.

At 5000 joins per day (Extremely hard BTW...LOL) is 4.5 million per month in payouts at 30.00 per join. We already established it takes approx 7 months to make the 5.00 net or $25k from the original 5000 joins. You would need around 30 million in reserves just to stay afloat.

bigdog 12-27-2004 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrej_NDC
how can they lose money when they make $37 per sale only with rebills? As I heard before, PPS programs often dont pay on check, dialer and other revenue, so add another 20-30% to it + cross sales, upsalles, mailings(each member email is worth $3+ for sure)


how much your emails are worth depends if you can get whitelisted and wind up in a surfers inbox

Alex From San Diego 12-27-2004 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeadFidel
Alex, although I still disagree with you on certain cost factors, I have to admit you are very good at crunching numbers


Thanks : ))

I just love the numbers game.

Alex From San Diego 12-27-2004 08:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigdog
how much your emails are worth depends if you can get whitelisted and wind up in a surfers inbox

Good point bigdog....emails today are not worth nearly as much as 3-4 years ago especially for porn.

Drake 12-27-2004 08:18 AM

It would be great if a PPS program paying beyond $35 per join would jump into this thread and show how the numbers game can actually work. Actual earnings don't have to be known. Simply substituting hypothetical numbers like "50" and working out the ratios and percentages based on those hypothetical numbers would show that it either works or it doesn't. Dispelling the myth and proving number crunchers like Alex wrong would be more than welcome. I've crunched the numbers myself before and came up with similar values Alex did. I swear on my life that I'd love to know what I'm doing wrong just to know that I'm wrong.

If Alex had included fees, hosting/bandwidth, maintenance, staff, the numbers would have ended up in the red.

I have thought of alternate explanations such as a "loss leader" in which case the PPS actually loses money but the revshare portions, upsells/crossells, mailers, and product sales (tangible like pills or non-tangible like eraser software) pick up the tab. But that too would be rather risky.

I'm not a math wiz. Is there anybody here majoring in math that could do calcuations to make a $35 PPS scenario work out?

Burridge 12-27-2004 08:20 AM

Alex -

Can you link to that Adult Legal place you speak of where you can license DVD's?

Alex From San Diego 12-27-2004 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Burridge
Alex -

Can you link to that Adult Legal place you speak of where you can license DVD's?

Adult Legal

Burridge 12-27-2004 08:27 AM

Thank you.

Alex From San Diego 12-27-2004 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike33
It would be great if a PPS program paying beyond $35 per join would jump into this thread and show how the numbers game can actually work. Actual earnings don't have to be known. Simply substituting hypothetical numbers like "50" and working out the ratios and percentages based on those hypothetical numbers would show that it either works or it doesn't. Dispelling the myth and proving number crunchers like Alex wrong would be more than welcome. I've crunched the numbers myself before and came up with similar values Alex did. I swear on my life that I'd love to know what I'm doing wrong just to know that I'm wrong.

If Alex had included fees, hosting/bandwidth, maintenance, staff, the numbers would have ended up in the red.

I have thought of alternate explanations such as a "loss leader" in which case the PPS actually loses money but the revshare portions, upsells/crossells, mailers, and product sales (tangible like pills or non-tangible like eraser software) pick up the tab. But that too would be rather risky.

I'm not a math wiz. Is there anybody here majoring in math that could do calcuations to make a $35 PPS scenario work out?

Mike....hit me up on icq 74296267 and I'll send you my spreadsheet when I get to the office. I have it broken down extensively where you can enter various variables and see the results.

I doubt you will see anyone come in here with factual numbers to disprove this theory. Shoot, I'm sure I am going to get blasted by some program owners.....LOL

polish_aristocrat 12-27-2004 08:55 AM

Alex, have you read this thread?
http://www.gofuckyourself.com/showth...adid=103026&s=

I am interested what you think about what The Doc wrote there?

thanks

Alex From San Diego 12-27-2004 10:01 AM

I read it back then and laughed and I read it today and the outcome was the same.

$20.00 per email....LOL

It is bullshit. I don't know any nicer way to say it than that.

His numbers are very skewed.

100 sales per day and owners of these programs are living in 1 million dollar mansions, driving exotic cars?

I can tell you we do more than 100 joins per day and I'm not living in a million dollar mansion...my home is 850k but then again I live in San Diego so my home is 1600 sqft built in 1951.....lol

bigdog 12-27-2004 10:21 AM

what is very intresting to me is that lens is the only one doing high pps payouts with nats, everyone else is revshare

Sunny Leone 12-27-2004 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Veterans Day
being VERY resourceful you could pull it off for 5-7k range. Dont worry 98% of all paysites are average, disregard the previous comments made :xmas-smil

That sounds about right. My site is average and it is doing great for average. I dont have hardcore on my site and guys still like me. Dont expect to make what some big porn sites do but you can make a living off of it. Just stay on top of it. Everything I have learned has been from the guys on this site. Post some pic's and i am sure the guys will help you out with knowledge.

Sunny Leone

Snake Doctor 12-27-2004 10:50 AM

I've spent 20k on the site I'm about to open....almost all of it on content and programming/design.

The hosting costs don't really come into play until the site is live and people are joining.
Now I'll probably spend a shitload more after I get back from Vegas on marketing, buying traffic, shit like that.
Plus you always have to have to content people constantly going....you need to update often.

Alex's numbers are a little high....content costs will vary depending on your niche. A softcore teen site is much cheaper to produce content for than scenes of a teen getting gang banged by 4 black guys.

But whatever the costs are, a paysite should definitely NOT be your first, or even your third venture in this biz.....you need to be able to support your paysite with traffic that you alone send (or buy) because affiliates are hard to get.

Snake Doctor 12-27-2004 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigdog
i hear naughtyamerica does something like 40% trial to monthly rebill

Its actually better than that....BUT they only charge $24.95 a month, so its easier to get surfers to stay for months on end than it is for sites that charge $40.

But the lower price definitely makes the $$ per member lower.

tranza 12-27-2004 11:23 AM

Great thread....

I'm bookmarking it....

It's been a while since I last learned so much from GFY...

bigdog 12-27-2004 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lenny2
I've spent 20k on the site I'm about to open....almost all of it on content and programming/design.

The hosting costs don't really come into play until the site is live and people are joining.
Now I'll probably spend a shitload more after I get back from Vegas on marketing, buying traffic, shit like that.
Plus you always have to have to content people constantly going....you need to update often.

Alex's numbers are a little high....content costs will vary depending on your niche. A softcore teen site is much cheaper to produce content for than scenes of a teen getting gang banged by 4 black guys.

But whatever the costs are, a paysite should definitely NOT be your first, or even your third venture in this biz.....you need to be able to support your paysite with traffic that you alone send (or buy) because affiliates are hard to get.

i guess naughtyamerica will lose one of their better affilates now

fraggle 12-27-2004 12:40 PM

ok what about paying on conversion to full membership or fullmember joins

at 35 or 40 bucks memberships you roughly break even paying an affiliate per join after 12-14% fees

1:3 rebilling will net 120 profit per 3 joins over 3 months which on my last pays averaged the rebilling cycle


ok different take on it and rather simple

RRACY 12-27-2004 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego
Thanks : ))

I just love the numbers game.

I heard revshare works if you offer exclusive content. :2 cents:

Drake 12-27-2004 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sunny Leone
That sounds about right. My site is average and it is doing great for average. I dont have hardcore on my site and guys still like me. Dont expect to make what some big porn sites do but you can make a living off of it. Just stay on top of it. Everything I have learned has been from the guys on this site. Post some pic's and i am sure the guys will help you out with knowledge.

Sunny Leone


I think that solo girl/couple sites owned and operated by themselves are a special cases. You don't have to pay any models (because you are the model), you don't have to pay a content provider (assuming your boyfriend/husband shoots the photos of you, you don't need a camera crew), and together you encode your videos and so on. I think most people in this thread are referring to traditional sites where all of that is outsourced. Exclusive content like that costs a lot so you're saving on one of the largest startup costs being the model and owner of your own site. Therefore your site is not 'average' by any means. And on that note, I'm happy to hear you're doing well :)

beemk 12-27-2004 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigdog
i hear naughtyamerica does something like 40% trial to monthly rebill

pretty close according to my stats

iBanker 12-27-2004 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UniversalPassLorence
It all depends on the quality of content, if it is exclusive or not, & how much content.

You hit it right on the head. If you put shit in, you will get shit out. We live by the phrase "quality (exclusive) NOT quanity".

ADL_JD 12-27-2004 01:35 PM

I would say don't start a paysite. Get some traffic - send it to me and make really good money. Then start a paysite and you can take back your traffic.

fraggle 12-27-2004 01:44 PM

lets b honest about this

i cant see 'big programs' with poorer members areas just throwing it away

but paying 35 on a 2.95 trial makes me seriously wonder how the hell they do make money,especially when they open all their sites up to members

andrej_NDC 12-27-2004 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iBanker
You hit it right on the head. If you put shit in, you will get shit out. We live by the phrase "quality (exclusive) NOT quanity".

??? only exclusive content is quality? What has is to do with quality of the content?

andrej_NDC 12-27-2004 02:06 PM

I just check my 2004 stats with TopBucks, I dont use PPS with them, but revshare.
I have $65 / sale (statsremote)

they pay 80%, but deduct 15% as fees(even when they dont pay 15% with their volume, for sure), 20% is their cut, so they make $100 per sale(including fees) from my traffic.
$100
-$15 fees
-$20 their cut
-$65 my cut

$100 per sale(including fees) just out from rebills, I wont start with the bonus income again.
Of course, they dont make that much for each sale, but I dont think my traffic is so special, some guys can make even more per sale...

Giorgio_Xo 12-27-2004 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego
That is a good question. Prior to launching our program, I did a pretty extensive spreadsheet based on two programs with various payouts.
They were 60% revshare, PPS with 25.00, 30.00 and 35.00 payouts.

Consider these variables:

$3.95 trials
$34.95 full memberships
14% CC processing fees

Assume you have a 40% trial conversion to full memberships and each month 60% of those full memberships continue to rebill.

Lets evaluate how much 50 trials are worth.

50 trials less processing fees: $170.00

50 x 40%=20 full memberships: $600.00

Month 2 - 60% of those 20 will rebill which is 12: $360.00
Month 3 - 60% of those 12 will rebill which is 7.2: $216.00
Month 4 - 60% of those 7.2 will rebill which is 4.3: $129.60
Month 5 - 60% of those 4.3 will rebill which is 2.6: $77.76
Month 6 - 60% of those 2.6 will rebill which is 1.6: $46.66
Month 7 - 60% of those 1.6 will rebill which is .9: $27.99

Total dollars earned from those original 50 trials after 7 months: $1628.00

The value of those 50 trials is worth $1628.00/50 trials or $32.56 each

The question affiliates should ask, is what is the value of each trial not what is the value of each member.

If I was to pay $30.00 per join, I am left with $2.56 per join after 7 months.
Don't forget, that is $2.56 per join using the variables of 40% trial conversions and 60% of those continue to rebill each month.

So the question is, will $2.56 per join cover all the overhead costs of running a paysite? I think we know the answer is no. If the answer is no, then how can there be so many programs out there that offer these outrageous payouts of 30.00 - 45.00 per join?

Yes I know, I can earn dollars on exits, cross sales, upsells, email cancelled members...etc....I have figured that into my spreadsheet as well. So then that must mean these programs are making their income based on these other means of generating revenues. Hmmmm, really?....makes you scratch your head.

We should examine Oxcash's Bang Brothers Online spin-off of last year. It started as a PPS only program paying $20 per trial and $35 per full membership sold. The BBO sites are cross sold into Nasty Dollars. All exits are credited and are only internal. This is the same as Nasty Dollars (and now Oxcash 5.0) $35 PPS with credit on exits (all exits internal), cross sold into Oxcash. BBO later added 50% Revshare.

$5.95 trial $34.95 monthly

Perfect Gonzo is another excellent example. They have two (now three) exclusive sites priced at $4.95 trial and $29.95 monthly. The key is the internal cross sale and the internal only credited exit.

PPS works if you have exclusive content with serious brand development and either multiple sites or multiple programs to cross sell.

Both programs dedicated a massive amount of effort culling free site traffic directly through its hosted galleries, gallery spot purchases, and internal TGP networks.

Perfect Gonzo's business model is stunning. They relied on no affiliate for traffic. It was all purchased simultaneously for concentrated brand building. Once they juiced the networks for themselves, PG released it to a second tier of webmasters. People always ask how Nasty Dollars and Oxcash keep selling - it's the brand.

bizmak 12-27-2004 02:20 PM

I'd say round 20k

Nima 12-27-2004 02:20 PM

very very nice thread

one of those rare ones you don't see all that often on GFY...what makes me scratch my head is why not one of the big boys jumped in here to share some words with us but then again maybe nobody wants to give out their secrets if there really are any :glugglug

Nima 12-27-2004 02:25 PM

another thing nobody mentioned is that some programs redirect certain countries that get very few sales to dialers and other things...

andrej_NDC 12-27-2004 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nima
another thing nobody mentioned is that some programs redirect certain countries that get very few sales to dialers and other things...

yes, very good point

afx 12-27-2004 02:31 PM

GFY need more threads like this... :thumbsup

iBanker 12-27-2004 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrej_NDC
??? only exclusive content is quality? What has is to do with quality of the content?

No, don't misunderstand that. There is a ton of content out there that is not exclusive and is still REALLY done right. We even use some of it within sites, etc. to help with retention.

I was merely replying to the statement that exclusive content tends to retain better, if the surfer expects and recieves more exclusive content on a daily update basis.

So while on the lines of content, we subit hundreds of galleries, and one thing has proven to be true. We have all thumbed through galleries looking for that perfect one to host, the one with the perfect 10 chick with every body part just hand molded my God himself. It amazes me how often the other girls convert more, not seen as much different tastes, etc. who knows.

One man's trash is another man's treasure I would presume.

Another thing to focus on that was commented on in this thread was the factual basis of whether or not the company would make more money with the same net profit margin such as $5 per memner to the program. If we are gonna nickel and dime it, than I think we should break out the pennies too.

So, just a few things that work both ways (for and against) for the program:

For: Lots of programs have bandwidth agreements in place that they are not fully utilizing, such as pay X amount per MBPS, lets say they are currently at only 100 joins a day and utilizing 1/10 of X, that means they could increase their usage 10 fold before they would incur additional charges. (sorry, I'm trying to keep something simple, that is hard to keep simple). So things like that will work in favor of the company, but not to the extent where anyone is getting their pockets lined. Content costs remain relatively the same in regards to updates and keeping the surfer on the site, just remember the program will need to eventually add new sites or new niches to continue to grow.

Against: Increased liability and legal issues. It is normal to spend a grip on bookkeeping and legal. We notice substantial increased expenses in regards to the amount of money we pay for bookkeeping as we grow, audit work, legal work, and pretty much everything in the accounting department. As any American knows, taxes on a company with so many transactions, and such a large amount of gross revenue, can be very complicated, and our CPAs that prepare our returns, don't discount based on the fact that we have a bad day. Imagine the sheer amount of transactional paperwork that is compiled with just 100 joins a day...now multiply it, not 10 fold, but lets say 3-4 to be safe.

There is money to be made if numbers get crunched on an hourly basis, but its like a 8 year old, you have to babysit it. It is common occurance to be on the phone with Alex at 11 PM, or 4:30 to get a second opinion on Unique traffic or which processor we should switch Nats over to for a better convertion, etc.

You name the problem, and I'm sure we have had it site related at some point. Interested to see what you guys think....

iBanker 12-27-2004 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by afx
GFY need more threads like this... :thumbsup

I couldn't agree with you more :thumbsup

Alex From San Diego 12-27-2004 03:19 PM

Well, I had a few people ask me to post my analysis spreadsheet.
Here it is. Keep in mind that this is with 40% conversion from Trial to Full memberships and 60% of those rebilling each month.

JasonandAlex.com Program Analysis

andrej_NDC 12-27-2004 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex From San Diego

+ many PPS programs dont pay for non-US sales, that can be 20-30% bonus revenue.

iBanker 12-27-2004 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrej_NDC
+ many PPS programs dont pay for non-US sales, that can be 20-30% bonus revenue.

Our program would consider that shaving if we didn't pay you on the join based on "where" the surfer signed up in regards to his country, if we (and Nats) can process it and track it, the affiliates deserves to get paid on it. We didn't send the surfer there, the affiliate did.


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