NoCarrier

I suggest you buy Tamiflu for yourself and your family. It will be your only defense against the virus. Don't expect a vaccine to be ready once it starts.

UK prepares for flu pandemic

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_ne...372003,00.html

Emergency plans are being drawn up by government health advisers to deal with a potential outbreak of bird flu in Britain, which experts warn could claim many thousands of lives.

Measures being considered include closing schools, cinemas or theatres in affected areas, quarantining those who come into contact with victims, cancelling routine operations to allow hospitals to deal with the outbreak, and public education.

But highly sensitive consultations are also taking place over who would be given priority for early protective drug therapy.

The anti-viral drugs that can treat the disease have not yet been stockpiled and would probably cover only up to a third of the population.

Healthcare workers, as well as emergency service staff, would be given priority, following a plan drawn up during an earlier flu alarm, as would women in the later stages of pregnancy. The new scheme could include computer staff in a group of 'essential' workers who would have to be treated in order to ensure the economy did not collapse in the event of a pandemic.

The Whitehall blueprint is being given new urgency because of alerts from the World Health Organisation, which believes that the bird flu sweeping South-East Asia could move into the human population next year.

The virus carries a 73 per cent mortality rate, so fast action would need to be taken once the infection appeared on British shores. Sars, which hit Asia and Canada last year, revealed how air travel allows infections to cross the world in days if security measures are not taken in the countries of origin.

The last time Britain was hit by a flu virus was in 1968, when the Hong Kong strain arrived and affected 8 per cent of the adult population and caused 40,000 deaths. The new outbreak could be more virulent, because it is a new strain and there would be no pool of immunity against it.

The bird-flu virus, known as H5N1, surfaced in Asia seven years ago, and has now become embedded in poultry farms. So far, 44 people in Thailand and Vietnam have caught the infection, 32 of whom have died. All of them are thought to have contracted it from chickens. WHO officials are now trying to identify when it moves from a poultry virus to a human pathogen, something they regard as a near-certainty. No one can predict, however, when that will happen.

Next month, scientists will begin human testing of a vaccine to combat a pandemic that experts have warned could kill between seven million and 100 million people worldwide.

If it is successful, commercial production could start in six to eight months, Klaus Stohr, co-ordinator of the global influenza programme at the WHO, said yesterday. But he added: 'Even if all companies started full-scale production just before the beginning of a pandemic, there would still not be enough vaccine for the whole world.'

Some anti-viral drugs have already been shown to work, both as a preventive measure and for treatment when symptoms begin. Health Secretary John Reid has to decide how much to stockpile in the event of a pandemic, given that it would cost the NHS many millions as the drugs are still under patent.

Reid was in Paris last week for a meeting of the Global Health Security Group, an organisation made up of the G7 nations, WHO experts and Mexico, which was set up to consider many health security issues after 9/11. He agreed to put extra funding into disease surveillance work being carried out in Thailand, so that blood samples can be analysed quickly

A spokesman said: 'We've learnt some lessons from the Sars experience and we are well placed with the NHS to have a good reporting system through GPs and the Health Protection Agency if it does emerge here.'

But Professor John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary Westfield medical school, said there was an urgent need to prepare now for a pandemic.

'What we are preparing for is the first global outbreak of the 21st century, and there is now this window of opportunity to prepare for it.

'But that window is closing fast, because no one knows how soon it will be before it becomes transmitted by people. A proper plan is our insurance policy against the worst.'

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NoCarrier

Warning as bird flu crossover danger escalates

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/inter...371917,00.html

The poultry farms of Asia are the breeding ground for the avian influenza virus, which is likely to spread across species - and to the West

Robin McKie and Jo Revill in London, John Aglionby in Bangkok and Jonathan Watts in Beijing
Sunday December 12, 2004
The Observer

Wanphen Sripirom has struggled for years to scrape a living as a subsistence farmer in Phichit province, north of Bangkok. Chickens have provided her with a lifeline that has been crucial for survival.

But last week Wanphen had to face a heart-breaking prospect: the slaughter of her brood. 'They're going to be killed tonight,' she said. It was a bitter blow, although the farmer is not alone in the privations she faces.

Thousands of others across Asia have already had their livelihoods devastated because their poultry has become infected by H5N1, the bird flu virus. Tens of thousands of ducks and chickens have been infected and tens of millions have been culled this year in a bid to stop the disease spreading. Economists believe this price tag for China alone has been £31 billion. The figure for the whole of South-East Asia is double that.

Health officials are unrepentant, however, for they are desperate to stop the disease spreading - not just to other poultry but to humans. The farms of South-East Asia, where humans and animals live beside each other in tiny yards and huts, have become a vast reservoir for the H5N1 virus, and that chills not just local officials but the world's health authorities.

The planet, they believe, is poised on the brink of a new flu pandemic whose source will be the infected farm birds of Thailand, Vietnam and China.

Already 44 confirmed human cases of H5N1 infection have been documented in Thailand and Vietnam (the only countries to report human cases). Of these, 32 have died, a fatality rate of 73 per cent. No wonder the World Health Organisation and other international medical groups have become fixated about South-East Asian agriculture.
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'No man is an island,' said John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary Westfield school of medicine, London. 'It doesn't matter where it starts - it will be on our doorstep within 12 hours. You can't argue that it isn't our problem.'

The struggle for survival of Wanphen Sripirom, and the thousands of other South-East Asian subsistence farmers, is a matter of direct consequence for us all, in other words. 'I noticed the symptoms of the virus in one of my birds one morning and by nightfall 50 had died,' Wanphen told The Observer. 'The following day another 30 died, and then another 30 the following day.

'Their bodies began shaking; it was as if they were suffocating and thick saliva starting coming out of their mouths. We tried to give the hens herbs to make them better, but it made no difference. The faces then went dark green and black, and then they died.'

Wanphen and her husband, Ban Noensai, were relatively lucky, however. They are still alive. The case of Pranee Thongchan, in the north Thai province of Kamphaengphet, presents a far more worrying example for health authorities. Pranee had no contact with poultry but had spent several days looking after her dying daughter Sakuntala. The 11-year-old had become ill after playing with infected hens. Doctors believe she was a bird flu victim, although Sakuntala was cremated before final tests could be carried out.

Then Pranee became ill and was taken to hospital, where she died several days later. Post-mortem tests showed she carried the H5N1 virus. Given Pranee's history and given the facts of her daughter's death, doctors conclude she was one of the first recorded victims of the human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus. The prospect of this being repeated in other cases terrifies doctors, although local officials are still desperately trying to calm the situation.

'From all the evidence that we have learnt, human-to-human transmission is very difficult,' affirmed Dr Supanit Chunsuttiwat, who works for Thailand's department of disease control.

World Health Organisation officials are not convinced, however. WHO's western Pacific director, Shigeru Omi, warned regional health ministers this month that there are genuine concerns that the virus could mutate into a form that could spread easily between humans and thus lead to a global pandemic.

'We are talking at least seven million (deaths), but maybe more - 10 million, 20 million and the worst case 100 million,' he said. And Shigeru was backed by Henk Bekedam, the Beijing WHO representative. 'This is a very real threat,' Bekedam told The Observer .

A bird flu pandemic could erupt next year or the following one or the one after that, say doctors. No one can be sure when. But what is certain is that a world outbreak is inevitable, given that the region has become such a vast reservoir for H5N1.

Not surprisingly, officials are now desperate to control and ultimately eradicate the virus, although conditions in the region are so chaotic such prospects look slim.

Consider the example of China. It has reported far fewer cases of avian flu than have been highlighted by other countries in South-East Asia. However, it is impossible to be sure about the extent of cases there because 80 per cent of the nation's chickens and ducks are reared in small, remote and poorly regulated farms.

'Good reporting is crucial to deal with this problem,' Bekedam said. 'But what are the incentives to report? Nil. If farmers tell officials, they risk losing their stocks. And if local officials tell the central government, they face trade bans.'

In addition, poorly planned vaccination programmes for poultry are making matters worse. Many farmers are buying black-market vaccines that have not been developed for H5N1.

These products keep the birds alive, even if they have the virus, which raises the risks of contagion when they are sold or transported. Farmers have also been sold fake vaccines that served only to make them falsely complacent about the poultry's safety.

The risks of the disease spreading to humans is also compounded by the poor living conditions in much of rural China, where average incomes are less than a quarter of those in the cities, and health insurance is almost non-existent.

Migratory birds also pose the problem of carrying the virus around the region, as do fighting cocks, a huge pastime in Thailand. 'People will go to great lengths to smuggle birds through cordons to get them to a fight,' said Priecha Asawametha, head of the Phichit provincial livestock office. 'It is very difficult to stop.'

Containment is clearly going to be extraordinarily difficult, if not impossible. So if the disease cannot be managed at source, the world must find ways to deal with an outbreak once it has begun to spread. Anti-viral drugs and vaccines offer the best hopes.

In the former case, one of the most successful anti-flu agents is Tamiflu, also known as oseltamivir. It is manufactured by Roche. It can alleviate victims' symptoms and prevent them from passing the virus to others.

Unfortunately, Roche's factory in Basel has had to double in size this year, and will double again next year simply in an attempt to keep up with demand. Nevertheless, a serious shortage seem inevitable. Another treatment, Relenza, which is made by GlaxoSmithKline, is also available but this is difficult to administer.

And despite the grim warning signs from South-East Asia, it is clear that many countries have not yet stockpiled anti-viral drugs. The UK, for example, has been in negotiations with Roche for months. Even if Britain buy enough doses only to cover between 10 to 20 per cent of its population, that bill will still come to millions of pounds. Yet no virus has actually emerged.

Vaccines, by contrast, will take time to develop. The problem is that, until the strain of H5N1 virus appears in this country, no one can create a vaccine against it, although scientists say that those that provide protection against existing strains could provide partial protection against the new one.

Britain also has a strong network of public health groups and is well placed to implement the plans that it is currently working on for dealing with the emergence of a flu pandemic.

By contrast, the United States looks ill-prepared and has bought antivirals to treat only one million of its 300 million citizens. 'We're all holding our breath,' said Julie Gerberding, head of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. Australia and the Netherlands have stockpiles that meet the demands of around one-third of their populations.

Given the death rates that the WHO is predicting, some of these preparations may seem poor. Professor Oxford counsels caution, however. It is not time for hysteria yet. 'There has never been better monitoring than there is at present. For the first time in history we will watch the emergence of a human virus, step by step, and we now have this window of opportunity to meet that challenge.'

Canada, which took such a battering, both economically and morale-wise over the recent Sars epidemic, provides a good example. It has learnt a great deal over the last year and has produced a pandemic plan. This is a prudent course of action, given that it has a large immigrant population from South-East Asia and is therefore badly exposed to the threat that bird flu poses.

... see next post

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NaughtyRob

What is Tamiflu and where can I get it?

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NoCarrier

....

Among the measures it plans to carry out is the publication of guides for helping people react should an outbreak occur. Measures include ensuring good hand-washing to prevent the spread of germs. If people fall ill, they should not go to work. If they fall into one of the high-risk categories - the elderly, the asthmatic, the immuno-suppressed - they should seek medical attention.

The point is that you cannot totally rely on drugs or the promise of a vaccine to lessen the risk, said Dr Theresa Tam, of the Immunisation and Respiratory Infections Division at the Public Health Agency of Canada. Behaviour has an enormous effect on the direction of an epidemic.

As to identifying who should be the first to get anti-viral treatments, the Canadians have asked a group of ethicists to help them draw up the plans.

As Tam told The Observer: 'We involved them, because these are not decisions that are purely scientific.'

On the other hand, the world has only limited time before that great flu epidemic erupts.

As every scientist, epidemiologist and doctor has told The Observer over the past few days, it is not a matter of if H5N1 erupts upon the world; it is simply a matter of when. We have time, but not a great deal, and should make the very most of it while we can. Politicians therefore need to pursue their plans with urgency, as Professor Oxford warned.

'This is the time to act. It's like an insurance policy; you don't wait until you've been burgled before you buy proper cover for your contents.'

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r3ap3r

We are in a state of alert in Canada also. The good part is the we get flu vaccinations for free

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NoCarrier

WHO Presses Governments, Fearing Bird Flu Pandemic

http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle...toryID=7031733

By Richard Waddington

GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization, fearing a killer flu pandemic may be on the way, is stepping up efforts to ensure governments around the globe are ready to fight it, a top official said on Wednesday.

The alarm has been sounded by the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which has become endemic in a number of Asian countries and which health officials fear could eventually mutate into a lethal new virus that will spread rapidly among humans.

The United Nations health agency, which sees a potential death toll of two million to seven million as a "best case scenario" for an outbreak, wants to tighten international cooperation and speed governmental battle plans.

"We have been stepping up our level of preparedness in the last month. Our level of concern is increasing," Dr Klaus Stohr, head of the WHO's global influenza program, told Reuters.

The worst hit countries so far have been Thailand, where the virus has killed at least 12 people, and Vietnam, where 20 have died.

"It would not be unexpected that the number of avian flu cases will increase with the onset of winter and we have to get our act together," Stohr said.

International health officials have warned for years that a flu pandemic is overdue, because the last one, which killed between one million and four million, occurred back in 1968.

Even that toll pales against the 20 to 50 million thought to have died during the so-called "Spanish" flu outbreak of 1918.

"WHO and influenza experts worldwide are concerned that the recent appearance and widespread distribution of an avian influenza -- Influenza A/H5N1 -- has the potential to ignite the next pandemic," the Geneva-based agency said in a statement on its Web Site.

It was impossible to predict just how deadly any such outbreak would be, because that would depend on various factors, including the virus' virulence and the ease of transmission.

"The global spread of a pandemic cannot be stopped, but preparedness will reduce its impact," the agency added.

As part of its campaign, WHO was overseeing the drafting of an international plan of action, laying down how governments and the WHO itself would react to any outbreak, Stohr said.

Health experts would put the finishing touches at a three-day meeting at WHO headquarters, starting next Monday.

"The concern is not just about the dying, it is the hundreds of millions that will be sick and who are going to flood into hospitals," Stohr said.

Other measures included a network of hospitals and clinics in the five or six Asian nations seen as most vulnerable to the virus -- Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Laos and Cambodia.

The network, which should be up and running by next February, would standardize sampling of viruses as well as other techniques so that a critical mass of information on any outbreak could be quickly built up, Stohr said.

The WHO was also putting together a "checklist" which countries could use to assess their state of readiness.

"It is of central importance that...states...develop their own preparedness plans...some plans are far from complete and many...have yet to begin," WHO warned in its statement.

? Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.

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TheLegacy

why even give a link when you paste the whole fucking article - all I give a shit about, is the flu virus going to affect me getting KFC ??

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NoCarrier

You don't understand, there won't be a vaccine ready once it starts. It will take at least a couple of months before it is. No one on this planet will be protected againt this new strain.

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NoCarrier

Because some people are too lazy to click on a link.

And no, trust me, once the pandemic starts and you see everyone dying around you, you won't want to eat KFC.

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SmokeyTheBear

I sale the generic version. Gullibiflu

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burntout21

scary, but part of nature keeps us from overpopulating.

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OzMan

...and in other news tonight, the world will end at 10:30PM. Full story at 11.

It's good to be aware of it but there isn't a lot you can do about it really. Here are my tips.


-Keep your immune system strong

-Practise good personal hygiene esp in public places

-Reconsider that three week all inclusive stay in Bangkok at "Madame Wu's House of Pleasure and Poultry "

Tat2Jr

Should I start smoking and taking drugs again? What about my savings? Should I get some hookers and go on vacation? I don't want to take this news laying down!

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jigga

wait for the media frenzy to equal y2k before taking such drastic actions

NoCarrier

Actually, yes, you can do something.

Buy Tamiflu and make sure you have enough.

A new killer strain will propably appear in Asia, but trust me, you will see cases in the U.S. 24 hours later. No one will be safe.

It's hard to imagine that Flu can kill.

My uncle died in 1968 (The Hong Kong flu pandemic) and he was 16 years old.

They expect to see at least 30% of people being infected. We're talking like 2 billion people. And so far, if you read the articles correctly, the death rate is more or less 70%

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NoCarrier

Yeah, but this time it's going to be for real because it happened in the past and there's nothing we can do to avoid it. I've been following this situation since 1997 when H5N1 infected human beings for the first time in Hong Kong.

They killed millions of chickens and stopped it. They thought that H5N1 was eradicated but it was not. Now it's everywhere in Asia and the virus is learning how to infect humans.

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SmokeyTheBear

I was only there for the poultry i swear.

__________________
hatisblack at yahoo.com

OzMan

Tamiflu is a general medication to lessen the symptoms of flu-like illnesses once infected

There is no proof that it has any effect on H5N1 and certailny not any immunological activities.

I should know, I have been Chief Virologist at CDC for the last 37 years.


Actually that last part isn't true, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn express last night.

OzMan

famous last words

OzMan

brb looking for TAMIFLU Affiliate program. Use my ref link k?

NoCarrier

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medi...p?newsid=15740

Researchers at Queen Mary Hospital, London, have revealed that Roche's Tamiflu, an anti flu drug, works against the bird flu virus H5N1 strain (the most lethal one). They say the drug is effective against avian and human forms of the virus.

In a study the researchers said that Tamiflu (oseltamivir) is effective against the strain that is now hitting Vietnam and Thailand.

Tamiflu is a neuraminidase inhibitor, it blocks the action of the viral enzymes.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has mentioned Tamiflu as the drug for tackling bird flu if ever a human pandemic breaks out.

Tamiflu has been used effectively in other strains of bird flu. In the Netherlands, in 2003, when 1,000 people were infected with the H7N7 strain, the drug proved to be very effective.

Tamiflu is currently used in Europe, USA and Japan for type A and B influenzas. It now seems that it is also effective against the bird (avian) flu virus H5N1 strain.

The WHO and many health experts around the world have warned of the risk of a massive outbreak of human to human bird flu. The WHO says Tamiflu could be the drug of choice for this pandemic (if it ever happens).

Pandemics hit the planet every 27 years. The last one hit about 36 years ago.

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xxxdesign-net

Where can I get that Tamiflu.. I'll sell some on ebay...

- Jesus Christ -

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Amen

OzMan

I stand corrected.

sean416

jesus dude, chill out... sounds like you got your panties in a knot and you're determined to spread fear. I'll eat my words if im wrong, but chances are this shit wont happen. These sources are wrong more often then they're right.

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hydro

better safe than sorry lol

NoCarrier

It's inevitable. I know it sounds like media hype bullshit, but I am pretty sure that the next one will be H5N1. Spanish Flu started exactly like that.

I'm just saying to keep Tamiflu handy, that's all.

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TheGoldenChild

The good news is I saved money on my car insurance.

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Tat2Jr

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Observing

NoCarrier didn't you make a shitload of threads about SARS killing off any and everyone last year?

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potter

Bahahahahaha! Brilliant!





Anyway, I don't see why everyone is so worried about this shit.

The most of you's live, eat, & sleep on the internet. I'm pretty sure the virus isn't transmitable through email or icq.

So while the rest of the world is in chaos, and slowing dying away in a cloud of bird flu.

We will al be relaxed sitting at our computers eating away at cheetos causing drama on gfy and other various chat/forums.

And everyone lived happily ever after,
The End.

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SykkBoy

The end is near! The end is near!sell me all your sites so when Captain Tripps comes and wipes us out, you'll have to money to get to either Las Vegas or Boulder, Colorado.

I'm buying sites for $1 apiece!

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hagbard

Just because something happened in the past doesnt mean it will now. Both public health awareness and knowledge of vectors have prevented or blunted outbreaks in the past. This will defanitely not be FUN but I do not believe that everyone around me will be dropping dead.

PenisFace

The avian bird flu was already here in Western Canada. They got it under control by slaughtering like a million chickens.

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KRL

This planet is fucked up. Seriously.

If its not one thing its another.

Can't we just have one day when there is only good news in the world.

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Napolean

we could but... how much fun would that REALLY be?

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Mr. Pat

great! we'll all fucking die soon!

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Centurion

I can appreciate your trying to spread the word on the possibility of a pandemic hitting the globe at any time in the future, but when talking about an avian flu pandemic, your "facts" are not all that factual.

Little clarification needed here (all the info comes directly from the cdc's website:http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/facts.htm )



1:"Avian influenza usually does not make wild birds sick, but can make domesticated birds very sick and kill them. Avian influenza A viruses do not usually infect humans; however, several instances of human infections and outbreaks have been reported since 1997."

2:"2003: Avian influenza A (H7N7) infections among poultry workers and their families were confirmed in the Netherlands during an outbreak of avian flu among poultry. More than 80 cases of H7N7 illness were reported (the symptoms were mostly confined to eye infections, with some respiratory symptoms), and 1 patient died (in a veterinarian who had visited an affected farm). There was evidence of some human-to-human transmission." (Not 1000s as you had posted NC)

3:And taking Tamiflu probably ain't gonna do you much good against any avian flu as it's not particularly effective against this year's flu bug that is going around. (Hence the reason so many Seniors are going to Mexico & Canada for flu shots).

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NoCarrier

You are talking about H7N7, a completely different type of virus, I am talking about H5N1. You should do some research before saying I am bullshitting.

I think you are confused. Do a search on google about H5N1 then come back here or at least read the article I posted above.


Did you read this thread or not?

I'll post it a second time, now read it.

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/med...hp?newsid=15740

Researchers at Queen Mary Hospital, London, have revealed that Roche's Tamiflu, an anti flu drug, works against the bird flu virus H5N1 strain (the most lethal one). They say the drug is effective against avian and human forms of the virus.

In a study the researchers said that Tamiflu (oseltamivir) is effective against the strain that is now hitting Vietnam and Thailand.

Tamiflu is a neuraminidase inhibitor, it blocks the action of the viral enzymes.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has mentioned Tamiflu as the drug for tackling bird flu if ever a human pandemic breaks out.

Tamiflu has been used effectively in other strains of bird flu. In the Netherlands, in 2003, when 1,000 people were infected with the H7N7 strain, the drug proved to be very effective.

Tamiflu is currently used in Europe, USA and Japan for type A and B influenzas. It now seems that it is also effective against the bird (avian) flu virus H5N1 strain.

The WHO and many health experts around the world have warned of the risk of a massive outbreak of human to human bird flu. The WHO says Tamiflu could be the drug of choice for this pandemic (if it ever happens).

Pandemics hit the planet every 27 years. The last one hit about 36 years ago.

__________________

__________________

klinton

Napolean

thank god.. i can't leave the apartment without coming back pissed because of the stupidity of everyone outside.

ill just chill here and be my normal hermit self while all the stupid people die.

weeks later emerge to a newer smarter world that darwin has blessed

i cant wait

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Furious_Female

Can I come over? I'll bring a plastic bubble!

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Napolean

you sure can, you bring the plastic, i got the rubber

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Furious_Female

ROFL you are so funny nappy! <3

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Observing

Dude you're obsessed and I think you have a problem you might wanna talk to a shrink abou...

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infecto

This bird flu has been around for so long in asia so whats the big deal? We are all going to die whoopdidoooo.

Manowar

shit happens

Trixxxia

NoCarrier - I've been worried about this since watching a late night documentary about 2 months ago. The strange thing is that most of the world seems oblivious to it. Guess they need a better PR agent to get the word out. Anyhow, I don't know about the state of alert in Canada - I was at the hospital with my daughter on Wednesday and when she suggested a flu shot for her I took the opportunity to ask but she thought I was referring to SARS - which I corrected her that it wasn't - then she admitted not having any idea what I was talking about. Now I did mention that it was warnings and alerts coming from WHO but she didn't know what I was talking about - scary though since asthmatics are more suseptible to catching it and she's one of the heads of the Asthma department. She said she'd get back to me on this.

OzMan

That is pretty fucked up when a senior medical professional knows less that GFY folks

tony286

thats scary