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Old 08-14-2004, 07:13 AM   #1
Bansheelinks
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Some Political News to Brighten Your Morning.......if US election held today........

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 327 Bush 211

This guy is the most intensive study of the electoral vote process......he's a poll junkie and breaks it right the fuck down with each most recent state-by-state polls, and he pays very close attention to the battleground states, where this'll be won and lost.

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Old 08-14-2004, 07:20 AM   #2
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I think Kerry will be ahead by more then that.
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Old 08-14-2004, 07:23 AM   #3
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LOL, this election stuff is almost like a football game. Everyone is tuning in.
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Old 08-14-2004, 07:30 AM   #4
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I wouldn't wager a whole lot of money on this.

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Old 08-14-2004, 07:33 AM   #5
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Bush will win, get used to it. Now.
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Old 08-14-2004, 07:35 AM   #6
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yeah? what about nader? o yeah, they dont include him because america runs the media, and we cant have a real person win
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Old 08-14-2004, 07:36 AM   #7
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Im hoping for Kerry. He has my vote so far.
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Old 08-14-2004, 08:09 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally posted by NoCarrier
Bush will win, get used to it. Now.
Hope all you want, but I think No Carrier is right.

Powell and others will leave though. John Assht, will stay

If you think Kerry is a quick study on the electroal count, the Bush team is on top of it for sure..
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Old 08-14-2004, 08:11 AM   #9
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both of them make me sick
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Old 08-14-2004, 08:15 AM   #10
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Good to see but I am sure there are other analyists that have it the other way around. A lot of flip flopping going around.

Bush hasn't pulled his rabbit out of the hat yet.
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Old 08-14-2004, 08:21 AM   #11
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Good to see but I am sure there are other analyists that have it the other way around. A lot of flip flopping going around.

Bush hasn't pulled his rabbit out of the hat yet.
Osama? Or WMD in iraq?
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Old 08-14-2004, 08:25 AM   #12
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Old 08-14-2004, 09:06 AM   #13
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People that actually vote seem to be in favor of bush, people that don't normally vote seem to be in favor of anyone else. Those that vote usually get thier man in. If you hit up the mercedes forums and such, they seem to all be for Bush...
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Old 08-14-2004, 09:26 AM   #14
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People that actually vote seem to be in favor of bush, people that don't normally vote seem to be in favor of anyone else. Those that vote usually get thier man in. If you hit up the mercedes forums and such, they seem to all be for Bush...

Thats not true. Half the people that normally vote favor Kerry and half that normally vote favor Bush (look at the 2000 election). Polls are taken from registered voters.

The difference is people that don't usually vote or have never voted before (i.e. younger people) heavily favor Kerry and I think there will be a high turnout of these type of people and hopefully that will make the difference. Of course Bush will pull some shit so its not going to matter anyway.
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Old 08-14-2004, 12:47 PM   #15
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Some of you are failing to realize the signifigance of these numbers and breakdowns state-by-state..........important points to consider:

1) the economic numbers in the industrial midwestern states are very poor and the Bush team is very disappointed and scared by them............if Bush cannot capture at least some of these states, like Michigan etc, he will lose EVEN if he wins Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.........it would be tight but he'd lose anyways......

2) Bush is fading badly in Pennsylvania........sometimes trailing by as much as 10%.......Kerry would now have to fuck up badly to lose PA, and thats 21 electoral votes

3) Once again, the electorate has polarized.........thats why Kerry didn't get hardly any bump at all from the Democratic convention, and neither will Bush from his. In other words, most have decided as your either for Bush, or against him........its called polarization.

4) The reason Bush is close in the over-all poll is his overwhelming southern support.........but again, he has a problem......most of his support is focused strongly there........he will win several southern states by 10-15-20%, but that doesn't help him in the close states. Kerry's support is stronger over-all and less concentrated, meaning its more likely that he will pull out some close victories in the swing states.

5) Kerry presently leads in Florida and Ohio even, although those two swing back in forth. If he gets EITHER of them, it'll be a blowout because he will get Pennsylvania. Like I said before, Bush is trailing in almost every midwestern industrial state; without that, its game over as the other states have already decided.

6) Don't forget, the debates haven't happened yet. Bush is bumbling moron in front of the mic but a shrewd manipulator of election campaigns. Ask Ann Richards of Texas who was supposedly unbeatable. But in a close election, the debates are very important and he sucks and will have a poor record to defend..........WMD's, Iraq, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, a net job loss for his term.

Kerry will destroy him in the debates and don't be surprised if there is an "a-ha" moment in them. Kerry is very smart and will get in some memorable one-liners.


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Old 08-14-2004, 12:58 PM   #16
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Pretty meaningless poll since Bush hasn't had his convention yet and Kerry did.....
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Old 08-14-2004, 12:59 PM   #17
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Ah, so Kerry will destroy him in the debates yet Al Gore didn't? Oh ok, thanks for clearing that up.
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Old 08-14-2004, 01:12 PM   #18
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The convention is meaningless. The two "sides" are so polarized, there will be no bounce - there wasn't after the Dem convention. Bansheelinks analysis is correct, imho and whomever said that voter virgins will sway the vote is exactly right. Go look at the voter registration at the local college.

It's (according to statistics) impossible for Bush to pull out a win now, barring his raising Pat Tillman from the dead...and I mean personally via laying-on-of-hands.
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Old 08-14-2004, 01:15 PM   #19
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Polititions: If everyone stopped voting, would they all just go away?
If voting actually changed anything it would be illegal.
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Old 08-14-2004, 01:29 PM   #20
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So, is this the dummycrats rallying cry now? "Both sides are polarized!"

I mean, do you have any stats to back that up? Do you know that Bush's approval rating is 51 percent and no president with an approval rating over 50 percent this late ever lost an election?

It looks like the Dems just wish they could freeze time until November and have the election, hence, the continual polarized line they keep trumping out.

Whatever, we'll see after Bush's convention. If you honestly don't think he will get a bump after that, then you are more stupid then I previously thought.
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Old 08-14-2004, 01:50 PM   #21
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bush will win the elections.
you'll see
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Old 08-14-2004, 02:04 PM   #22
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I mean, do you have any stats to back that up? Do you know that Bush's approval rating is 51 percent and no president with an approval rating over 50 percent this late ever lost an election?
I found these stats from last month:

President George W. Bush?s job approval rating in this poll is 45 percent; 48 percent disapprove. This is about where his rating has hovered over the past few months, though an improvement from the low of 41 percent recorded in May. Other evaluations are also little changed from a month ago.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/...in630312.shtml

where did your stats come from, Fox news?
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Old 08-14-2004, 02:16 PM   #23
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where did your stats come from, Fox news?
I'd imagine directly from the Bush camp. I remember hating Bush during the last election and all of my friends arguing with me about how great he was. Now those same friends can't stand him. Being that the last election was neck in neck I can't fathom him getting re-elected after pissing off so many that backed him 4 years ago.
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Old 08-14-2004, 02:17 PM   #24
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http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 327 Bush 211

bullshit . . . no matter who wins, it won't be by that much of a margin
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Old 08-14-2004, 02:18 PM   #25
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Maybe his poll is right, but it'll all change when they have to vote in Florida, remember the last time..
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Old 08-14-2004, 02:28 PM   #26
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bullshit . . . no matter who wins, it won't be by that much of a margin
I bet he's pretty damn accurate. The map is all red but the elecoral votes are swayed the other way, that's usually how it goes.
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Old 08-14-2004, 03:01 PM   #27
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I bet he's pretty damn accurate.
how much?
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Old 08-14-2004, 03:56 PM   #28
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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm
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Old 08-14-2004, 04:03 PM   #29
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Bush will win again 100%
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Old 08-14-2004, 04:21 PM   #30
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Bush will win again 100%
Anyone with that much confidence, on either side, is completely dillusional.

You should really get some help ... this could turn into a serious problem for you.

Checkout this page, it has a list of common mental disorders ... if you see the signs early, it is possible to get treatment and live a relatively 'normal' life. http://my.webmd.com/content/article/60/67134.htm

Please, it's never too late. Pull your head out of your ass as soon as possible.

Good luck and God Bless.

-Phil

Last edited by jawanda; 08-14-2004 at 04:23 PM..
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Old 08-14-2004, 04:22 PM   #31
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Old 08-14-2004, 04:31 PM   #32
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Four more years!

Either way .. at least the heavily liberal left wing will shut up for 3 years.
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Old 08-14-2004, 08:07 PM   #33
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Four more years!

Either way .. at least the heavily liberal left wing will shut up for 3 years.
the so-called "liberal left" is whats keeping your ass in business.........i can see adult webmasters being fiscally conservative as i am, but c'mon, socially conservative? do you want these fuckin' nutcases to keep harrassing us until we are out of business? what about the supreme court? one more mealy-mouthed conservative on there and things like COPA would be upheld.......

i am speaking to the webmasters out their who are repubs........vote prudently, vote with your pocketbook.......vote bush and his crony, john asshead, out of office
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Old 08-14-2004, 08:23 PM   #34
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the so-called "liberal left" is whats keeping your ass in business.........i can see adult webmasters being fiscally conservative as i am, but c'mon, socially conservative? do you want these fuckin' nutcases to keep harrassing us until we are out of business? what about the supreme court? one more mealy-mouthed conservative on there and things like COPA would be upheld.......

i am speaking to the webmasters out their who are repubs........vote prudently, vote with your pocketbook.......vote bush and his crony, john asshead, out of office
Well said.
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Old 08-14-2004, 08:33 PM   #35
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what about the supreme court? one more mealy-mouthed conservative on there and things like COPA would be upheld.......
Whew! I hear ya. One more and were screwed for 20-30 years +
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Old 08-14-2004, 08:50 PM   #36
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the so-called "liberal left" is whats keeping your ass in business.........i can see adult webmasters being fiscally conservative as i am, but c'mon, socially conservative? do you want these fuckin' nutcases to keep harrassing us until we are out of business? what about the supreme court? one more mealy-mouthed conservative on there and things like COPA would be upheld.......

i am speaking to the webmasters out their who are repubs........vote prudently, vote with your pocketbook.......vote bush and his crony, john asshead, out of office
Actually I like Bush regime changing Arab states. Hope he gets them all.

I'm also Canadian. Have fun with your new regs.

4 more years!

Last edited by WarChild; 08-14-2004 at 08:51 PM..
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Old 08-14-2004, 09:01 PM   #37
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adult webmasters for bush is all about sig views

but either way this business won't die. Take a look at offshore pharmacies, casinos, and even spam friendly sponsors. All offshore and almost all of thier affiliates in the usa. They stay in business because they go offshore
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Old 08-14-2004, 09:03 PM   #38
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Anyone with that much confidence, on either side, is completely dillusional.

You should really get some help ... this could turn into a serious problem for you.

Checkout this page, it has a list of common mental disorders ... if you see the signs early, it is possible to get treatment and live a relatively 'normal' life. http://my.webmd.com/content/article/60/67134.htm

Please, it's never too late. Pull your head out of your ass as soon as possible.

Good luck and God Bless.

-Phil
Everything is all planned out, Bush will win again
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Old 08-14-2004, 09:07 PM   #39
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Old 08-14-2004, 09:09 PM   #40
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Bush will win, get used to it. Now.
nobody wants to face the truth
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Old 08-14-2004, 10:12 PM   #41
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Actually I like Bush regime changing Arab states. Hope he gets them all.

I'm also Canadian. Have fun with your new regs.

4 more years!
some webmasters never cease to amaze me with their nonsensical views..........so what if you are canadian.......if we in the US keep getting harrassed, that will affect proggies and whatnot, hosting, etc..........

i have cdn friends who tell me BW up their is 4x the cost of ours, and in the adult biz thats a killer............keep to your views......more repub administrations will affect you too, but your too blind to see it
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Old 08-14-2004, 10:25 PM   #42
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on the bright side, IF bush wins it's max 4 more years, then it's definitely over. Hopefully it will be 0 more years.
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Old 08-14-2004, 10:28 PM   #43
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on the bright side, IF bush wins it's max 4 more years, then it's definitely over. Hopefully it will be 0 more years.
A lot of bad things can happen in 4 years
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Old 08-14-2004, 10:35 PM   #44
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I found these stats from last month:

President George W. Bush?s job approval rating in this poll is 45 percent; 48 percent disapprove. This is about where his rating has hovered over the past few months, though an improvement from the low of 41 percent recorded in May. Other evaluations are also little changed from a month ago.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/...in630312.shtml

where did your stats come from, Fox news?
No idiot... he got those numbers from the most recent Gallup poll, not the month old one you WISH was correct. His approval is at 51%. Funny how upset the lefties become when its bad news for Kerry-Edwards.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...p_world _news

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Old 08-14-2004, 10:36 PM   #45
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Old 08-14-2004, 10:40 PM   #46
WarChild
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Quote:
Originally posted by Bansheelinks
some webmasters never cease to amaze me with their nonsensical views..........so what if you are canadian.......if we in the US keep getting harrassed, that will affect proggies and whatnot, hosting, etc..........

i have cdn friends who tell me BW up their is 4x the cost of ours, and in the adult biz thats a killer............keep to your views......more repub administrations will affect you too, but your too blind to see it

Blah blah blah.

Fact of the matter is ... If it were illegal for you to run websites in the US, that'd be very good for me. We'd have US customers, and no US competition.

Sponsors would move out of the US. Bandwidth is available in Canada, and it's not 4X as much.

Four more years!
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Old 08-14-2004, 10:40 PM   #47
baddog
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Quote:
Originally posted by slapass
Well said.
with all those spelling errors? not hardly
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Old 08-14-2004, 10:41 PM   #48
Theo
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Quote:
Originally posted by titmowse
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm
timowse,what's the Tossup number in the results?
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Old 08-14-2004, 10:55 PM   #49
DarkBob
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Quote:
Originally posted by ronbotx
No idiot... he got those numbers from the most recent Gallup poll, not the month old one you WISH was correct. His approval is at 51%. Funny how upset the lefties become when its bad news for Kerry-Edwards.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...p_world _news

sit home and look at your numbers and call people names. I'm out getting people registered to vote. See you at the polls.
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Old 08-14-2004, 11:14 PM   #50
Bansheelinks
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Quote:
Originally posted by Soul_Rebel
timowse,what's the Tossup number in the results?
rassmussen is way off............he has Pennsylvania as a tossup? Kerry has been leading there solidly for months and now he's up almost 10 points.........hardly a tossup
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