Some Political News to Brighten Your Morning.......if US election held today........
 

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 327 Bush 211

This guy is the most intensive study of the electoral vote process......he's a poll junkie and breaks it right the fuck down with each most recent state-by-state polls, and he pays very close attention to the battleground states, where this'll be won and lost.

:thumbsup

I think Kerry will be ahead by more then that.

LOL, this election stuff is almost like a football game. Everyone is tuning in.

I wouldn't wager a whole lot of money on this.

:1orglaugh

Bush will win, get used to it. Now. :glugglug

yeah? what about nader? o yeah, they dont include him because america runs the media, and we cant have a real person win

Im hoping for Kerry. He has my vote so far.:thumbsup

Hope all you want, but I think No Carrier is right.

Powell and others will leave though. John Assht, will stay :(

If you think Kerry is a quick study on the electroal count, the Bush team is on top of it for sure..

both of them make me sick

Good to see but I am sure there are other analyists that have it the other way around. A lot of flip flopping going around.

Bush hasn't pulled his rabbit out of the hat yet.

Osama? Or WMD in iraq?

Polititions: If everyone stopped voting, would they all just go away?

People that actually vote seem to be in favor of bush, people that don't normally vote seem to be in favor of anyone else. Those that vote usually get thier man in. If you hit up the mercedes forums and such, they seem to all be for Bush...:helpme

Thats not true. Half the people that normally vote favor Kerry and half that normally vote favor Bush (look at the 2000 election). Polls are taken from registered voters.

The difference is people that don't usually vote or have never voted before (i.e. younger people) heavily favor Kerry and I think there will be a high turnout of these type of people and hopefully that will make the difference. Of course Bush will pull some shit so its not going to matter anyway.

Some of you are failing to realize the signifigance of these numbers and breakdowns state-by-state..........important points to consider:

1) the economic numbers in the industrial midwestern states are very poor and the Bush team is very disappointed and scared by them............if Bush cannot capture at least some of these states, like Michigan etc, he will lose EVEN if he wins Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.........it would be tight but he'd lose anyways......

2) Bush is fading badly in Pennsylvania........sometimes trailing by as much as 10%.......Kerry would now have to fuck up badly to lose PA, and thats 21 electoral votes

3) Once again, the electorate has polarized.........thats why Kerry didn't get hardly any bump at all from the Democratic convention, and neither will Bush from his. In other words, most have decided as your either for Bush, or against him........its called polarization.

4) The reason Bush is close in the over-all poll is his overwhelming southern support.........but again, he has a problem......most of his support is focused strongly there........he will win several southern states by 10-15-20%, but that doesn't help him in the close states. Kerry's support is stronger over-all and less concentrated, meaning its more likely that he will pull out some close victories in the swing states.

5) Kerry presently leads in Florida and Ohio even, although those two swing back in forth. If he gets EITHER of them, it'll be a blowout because he will get Pennsylvania. Like I said before, Bush is trailing in almost every midwestern industrial state; without that, its game over as the other states have already decided.

6) Don't forget, the debates haven't happened yet. Bush is bumbling moron in front of the mic but a shrewd manipulator of election campaigns. Ask Ann Richards of Texas who was supposedly unbeatable. But in a close election, the debates are very important and he sucks and will have a poor record to defend..........WMD's, Iraq, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, a net job loss for his term.

Kerry will destroy him in the debates and don't be surprised if there is an "a-ha" moment in them. Kerry is very smart and will get in some memorable one-liners.


:2 cents:

Pretty meaningless poll since Bush hasn't had his convention yet and Kerry did.....

Ah, so Kerry will destroy him in the debates yet Al Gore didn't? Oh ok, thanks for clearing that up. :1orglaugh

The convention is meaningless. The two "sides" are so polarized, there will be no bounce - there wasn't after the Dem convention. Bansheelinks analysis is correct, imho and whomever said that voter virgins will sway the vote is exactly right. Go look at the voter registration at the local college.

It's (according to statistics) impossible for Bush to pull out a win now, barring his raising Pat Tillman from the dead...and I mean personally via laying-on-of-hands.

If voting actually changed anything it would be illegal.

So, is this the dummycrats rallying cry now? "Both sides are polarized!"

I mean, do you have any stats to back that up? Do you know that Bush's approval rating is 51 percent and no president with an approval rating over 50 percent this late ever lost an election?

It looks like the Dems just wish they could freeze time until November and have the election, hence, the continual polarized line they keep trumping out.

Whatever, we'll see after Bush's convention. If you honestly don't think he will get a bump after that, then you are more stupid then I previously thought.

bush will win the elections.
you'll see

I found these stats from last month:

President George W. Bush?s job approval rating in this poll is 45 percent; 48 percent disapprove. This is about where his rating has hovered over the past few months, though an improvement from the low of 41 percent recorded in May. Other evaluations are also little changed from a month ago.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/...in630312.shtml

where did your stats come from, Fox news?

I'd imagine directly from the Bush camp. I remember hating Bush during the last election and all of my friends arguing with me about how great he was. Now those same friends can't stand him. Being that the last election was neck in neck I can't fathom him getting re-elected after pissing off so many that backed him 4 years ago.

bullshit . . . no matter who wins, it won't be by that much of a margin

Maybe his poll is right, but it'll all change when they have to vote in Florida, remember the last time..

I bet he's pretty damn accurate. The map is all red but the elecoral votes are swayed the other way, that's usually how it goes.

how much?

Bush will win again 100%

Anyone with that much confidence, on either side, is completely dillusional.

You should really get some help ... this could turn into a serious problem for you.

Checkout this page, it has a list of common mental disorders ... if you see the signs early, it is possible to get treatment and live a relatively 'normal' life. http://my.webmd.com/content/article/60/67134.htm

Please, it's never too late. Pull your head out of your ass as soon as possible.

Good luck and God Bless.

-Phil

--

Four more years!

Either way .. at least the heavily liberal left wing will shut up for 3 years.

the so-called "liberal left" is whats keeping your ass in business.........i can see adult webmasters being fiscally conservative as i am, but c'mon, socially conservative? do you want these fuckin' nutcases to keep harrassing us until we are out of business? what about the supreme court? one more mealy-mouthed conservative on there and things like COPA would be upheld.......

i am speaking to the webmasters out their who are repubs........vote prudently, vote with your pocketbook.......vote bush and his crony, john asshead, out of office

Well said.

Whew! I hear ya. One more and were screwed for 20-30 years +

Actually I like Bush regime changing Arab states. Hope he gets them all.

I'm also Canadian. Have fun with your new regs.

4 more years!

adult webmasters for bush is all about sig views :Graucho

but either way this business won't die. Take a look at offshore pharmacies, casinos, and even spam friendly sponsors. All offshore and almost all of thier affiliates in the usa. They stay in business because they go offshore

Everything is all planned out, Bush will win again :)

nobody wants to face the truth

some webmasters never cease to amaze me with their nonsensical views..........so what if you are canadian.......if we in the US keep getting harrassed, that will affect proggies and whatnot, hosting, etc..........

i have cdn friends who tell me BW up their is 4x the cost of ours, and in the adult biz thats a killer............keep to your views......more repub administrations will affect you too, but your too blind to see it

on the bright side, IF bush wins it's max 4 more years, then it's definitely over. Hopefully it will be 0 more years.

A lot of bad things can happen in 4 years

No idiot... he got those numbers from the most recent Gallup poll, not the month old one you WISH was correct. His approval is at 51%. Funny how upset the lefties become when its bad news for Kerry-Edwards.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...p_world _news

Blah blah blah.

Fact of the matter is ... If it were illegal for you to run websites in the US, that'd be very good for me. We'd have US customers, and no US competition.

Sponsors would move out of the US. Bandwidth is available in Canada, and it's not 4X as much.

Four more years!

with all those spelling errors? not hardly

timowse,what's the Tossup number in the results?

:)
sit home and look at your numbers and call people names. I'm out getting people registered to vote. See you at the polls.

rassmussen is way off............he has Pennsylvania as a tossup? Kerry has been leading there solidly for months and now he's up almost 10 points.........hardly a tossup