Some of you are failing to realize the signifigance of these numbers and breakdowns state-by-state..........important points to consider:
1) the economic numbers in the industrial midwestern states are very poor and the Bush team is very disappointed and scared by them............if Bush cannot capture at least some of these states, like Michigan etc, he will lose EVEN if he wins Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.........it would be tight but he'd lose anyways......
2) Bush is fading badly in Pennsylvania........sometimes trailing by as much as 10%.......Kerry would now have to fuck up badly to lose PA, and thats 21 electoral votes
3) Once again, the electorate has polarized.........thats why Kerry didn't get hardly any bump at all from the Democratic convention, and neither will Bush from his. In other words, most have decided as your either for Bush, or against him........its called polarization.
4) The reason Bush is close in the over-all poll is his overwhelming southern support.........but again, he has a problem......most of his support is focused strongly there........he will win several southern states by 10-15-20%, but that doesn't help him in the close states. Kerry's support is stronger over-all and less concentrated, meaning its more likely that he will pull out some close victories in the swing states.
5) Kerry presently leads in Florida and Ohio even, although those two swing back in forth. If he gets EITHER of them, it'll be a blowout because he will get Pennsylvania. Like I said before, Bush is trailing in almost every midwestern industrial state; without that, its game over as the other states have already decided.
6) Don't forget, the debates haven't happened yet. Bush is bumbling moron in front of the mic but a shrewd manipulator of election campaigns. Ask Ann Richards of Texas who was supposedly unbeatable. But in a close election, the debates are very important and he sucks and will have a poor record to defend..........WMD's, Iraq, and MOST IMPORTANTLY, a net job loss for his term.
Kerry will destroy him in the debates and don't be surprised if there is an "a-ha" moment in them. Kerry is very smart and will get in some memorable one-liners.
