Iowa Caucus Prediction!

[uno]

Whoever wins it won't matter. NH and SC will be the real deciders.

[glamourmodels]

Unless it's someone other than Ron Paul, in which case it will really be predictive of the eventual nominee and make Iowa relevant again, right? LOL

Nice try-

Originally Posted by uno

Whoever wins it won't matter. NH and SC will be the real deciders.

[brassmonkey]

wins what?

[Wizzo]

Uno said Caucus!

[12clicks]

Romney will win. Probably by more than expected. Santorum and Paul split the lunatic vote (religous and hippy) and Gingrich shows why you need boots on the ground in Iowa way ahead of time to win there. Iowa is irrelevant regardless of who wins. First real test is SC.

[IllTestYourGirls]

Ron Paul is winning in the latest poll that concluded yesterday.

[kane]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

Romney will win. Probably by more than expected. Santorum and Paul split the lunatic vote (religous and hippy) and Gingrich shows why you need boots on the ground in Iowa way ahead of time to win there. Iowa is irrelevant regardless of who wins. First real test is SC.

I agree. I think Romney will win, maybe not by a lot, but he will win. Paul will finish second. New Hampshire will go to Romney then SC is where the fun really begins. The last polls I saw had Newt way out in front there, but those were a few weeks old before Newt started to fade so it could be a lot closer than that and a couple of Romney wins in Iowa and NH could help increase his standing there.

[BFT3K]

Originally Posted by brassmonkey

wins what?

[12clicks]

Originally Posted by kane

I agree. I think Romney will win, maybe not by a lot, but he will win. Paul will finish second. New Hampshire will go to Romney then SC is where the fun really begins. The last polls I saw had Newt way out in front there, but those were a few weeks old before Newt started to fade so it could be a lot closer than that and a couple of Romney wins in Iowa and NH could help increase his standing there.

Last I saw newt and Romney were close nation wide. It will be interesting to see if romney's negative ads work as well in SC. If so, newt is done

[uno]

Originally Posted by glamourmodels

Unless it's someone other than Ron Paul, in which case it will really be predictive of the eventual nominee and make Iowa relevant again, right? LOL

Nice try-

Not really. It'll be even more laughable if Santorum won. If Newt managed to win it, it might give him somewhat of an edge in SC, but I doubt it. If Romney wins it nothing really changes. If a laughable non-romney candidate wins, especially paul or santorum, it'll give Romney a big boost for NH. Iowa is rarely ever predictive or very relevant. It's a big show to get people to spend tons of money in and on the state as the first primary.

[uno]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

Romney will win. Probably by more than expected. Santorum and Paul split the lunatic vote (religous and hippy) and Gingrich shows why you need boots on the ground in Iowa way ahead of time to win there. Iowa is irrelevant regardless of who wins. First real test is SC.

Holy shit I agree with Ron, except I think NH matters. If Huntsman can actually make a strong showing in that state it could be a real eye opener and possible game changer. It'll be a great test for Romney as he has a ceiling everywhere, locally and nationally.

[uno]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

Last I saw newt and Romney were close nation wide. It will be interesting to see if romney's negative ads work as well in SC. If so, newt is done

Negative ads and push polling have proven very effective, historically, in SC.

[Coup]

ron paul is going to lose

[kane]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

Last I saw newt and Romney were close nation wide. It will be interesting to see if romney's negative ads work as well in SC. If so, newt is done

Yeah if Newt can't win SC he is done for sure. Especially considering that he is likely to be in third place going into SC there is no room for error for him.

[12clicks]

Originally Posted by uno

Holy shit I agree with Ron, except I think NH matters. If Huntsman can actually make a strong showing in that state it could be a real eye opener and possible game changer. It'll be a great test for Romney as he has a ceiling everywhere, locally and nationally.

Eh, I think huntsman is deluded. He's pretending to be conservative but conservatives aren't buying it. This is why he's going all or nothing in liberal NH.
SC starts the southern swing and the only guy who can sweep the south is Gingrich. This is why Romney needs newt dead after SC. If newt wins SC he'll go on to sweep the south and gain too much momentum to be stopped.

[porno jew]

revolting bunch of candidates. the fact that ron paul might win shows how sad they all are.

[uno]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

Eh, I think huntsman is deluded. He's pretending to be conservative but conservatives aren't buying it. This is why he's going all or nothing in liberal NH.
SC starts the southern swing and the only guy who can sweep the south is Gingrich. This is why Romney needs newt dead after SC. If newt wins SC he'll go on to sweep the south and gain too much momentum to be stopped.

Romney is pretending to be conservative, but I think even less people are buying it than JH. Gingrich's slide has already started and people are remembering or finding out why he's a douchebag already/again.

[uno]

Originally Posted by Wizzo

Uno said Caucus!

I was there. It was hot.

[acrylix]

Originally Posted by uno

Whoever wins it won't matter. NH and SC will be the real deciders.

The last two Presidents of the United States both won Iowa and lost New Hamphire.

Please explain why NH is a decider while Iowa isn't.

[uno]

Originally Posted by acrylix

The last two Presidents of the United States both won Iowa and lost New Hamphire.

Please explain why NH is a decider while Iowa isn't.

Several of the last few losers have won also.

Huckabee
Kerry
Gore
Dole

NH is the state where everything could change. Romney, Gingrich, Huntsman... That'll lead to SC where it changes further. If Huntsman can make a good showing in NH while Newt completely bombs or even Romney drops, wow. Right now Iowa is a fucking 3 ring circus with obvious non-winners that have pulled to the top of the polls only to drop back to obscurity. See: Bachmann, That Pizza Guy, Gingrich, and now even Santorum().

[Tempest]

Originally Posted by IllTestYourGirls

Ron Paul is winning in the latest poll that concluded yesterday.

That worked out well for him.

[Tempest]

Originally Posted by JohnnyClips

I bet Ron Paul wins in a landslide

You should stick to your day job..

[icymelon]

Santorum having a strong showing sucks balls. I actually expected him to win because of the religious right and their history in the state with his momentum going into today. But the worst thing is now he is probably sure fire VP on the ticket. What can be worse for the porn industry than having someone like him as VP he wants to outlaw contraception. Yeah the only thing worse would be if he was president.

I know some peps on here are republican but I'm for whats best for my business.

[GregE]

Originally Posted by icymelon

Santorum having a strong showing sucks balls. I actually expected him to win because of the religious right and their history in the state with his momentum going into today. But the worst thing is now he is probably sure fire VP on the ticket.

Except that candidates from both parties usually position themselves closer to the center for the general election. Picking that idiot Santorum for VP would do the same damage to Romney (or Gingrich) as Palin did to McCain.