The traffic pool has changed forever- would you agree?
 

Check the stats of any of the biggest general niche sponsors (big tits, asses, regular nice stuff, expensive production, porn chicks, porn guys) and you'll see a huge drop in overall traffic (ok, what are stats? but I guess we CAN already admit there's something going on, can't we?).

That means that not only the pay sites are receiving much less traffic compared to for example one year ago, but also that the paysite promos )(fhg's / clips etc. ) and affiliates in general receive less traffic compared to for example that one year ago.

The biggest like Nastydollars offer an excellent value for their members, plus have their own dating and cams and I don't know what all to upsell, so I don't think these are getting hurt that much, because rebills always do the most of the revenue, and the retention must be insane in their case.

BUT they most likely also receive much less new sign ups (and this is NOT only because of oversaturation, as far as their sites couldn't get over saturated over night and there is a radical change in the traffic trend if you check anything you want - google labs or alexa or etc. I doubt they would show us their stats :)).

Here's a very simple question:

Where did the traffic that used to reside and hit the affiliate promos / free sites / mgp's / blogs etc. go?

How about some place with even more free full length porn and NO affiliate links in it?

Or did many stop to jack off and joined the monastery? Or did they stop using internet? I wouldn't expect that.

Let's still remain positive about marketing of practically any stuff, that's still unique in nature, and different than the overload of free porn out there, but this very, very simple assumption says that illegal tube sites indeed ARE a problem.

How big is the problem?

-20 pct.- 40 pct. - 60 pct. of new sign ups?

Who gets hurt the most?

What niche works for you? What niche sucks?

Let's talk about this statement:

Will an almost perfect free substitute harm the sales of a particular good?

YES

I would also dare to say, that the argument, that was mentioned here many times - that this is a regular evolution and it has been here before, I'm afraid it's not entirely correct.

We're dealing with a different animal here - numbers talk clearly - the traffic pool has changed forever, the customer is jacking the same, but paying less than ever.

AND of course then the one who pulls the credit card gets gang raped by some!

Thank you!

Glad to hear your thoughts, let's debate, trolls please post too for a little smack down intermezzo.

:pimp

I have noticed daily searches for most keywords have dropped big time over the last year. My guess is most have just bookmarked their favorite tubes and forums and don't really need to use the search engines as much.

When you first got your cable installed, you needed to look at the guide all the time so that you could learn the channels and the schedules.....Once you learned them, you don't use the guide as much because you:

1. Know your favorite channels (bookmarks)
2. Already know the schedules
3. Already know what content you like on said channel..
4. Have their DVR's set, which means less commercials watched

Doesn't mean that people aren't still watching tv, they just need the tv guide less and less these days.

Ok, so let's talk about a steady trend say till June / July 2008 - then a huge drop

http://widgets.alexa.com/traffic/gra...xuDAb1G03ro%3D

Don't bash me for Alexa, it was the easiest to load.

Does it mean that 40 pct. of the audience (that is the expected drop) just "bookmarked" their stuff over night?

Interesting post, some of my thoughts on that:

>Where did the traffic that used to reside and hit the affiliate promos / free sites / mgp's / blogs etc. go?
Much is going to tube sites, just check the global 100 and you can find porn tubes there, not to count the thousands of small tubes. No more downloading, simply click and watch, couldn?t be easier and all for free.

>How about some place with even more free full length porn and NO affiliate links in it?
Looking for the latest porn dvd? Surfers download it over a torrent?

>Or did many stop to jack off and joined the monastery? Or did they stop using internet? I wouldn't expect that.
They visit let?s porn sites and more social networks, here is an article from 2007 about facebook being more popular than porn:
http://www.time.com/time/business/ar...678586,00.html
6 Months ago Facebook had 100 Million users, now 150 million. So there is a trend?

not to mention the fact that the SE's are getting better at directing the casual searching surfer to the free porn forums and tubes


I think even the simplest search for the keyword "porn" gives the number one result having half hour porn videos right on the first page all for free


and for the more advanced google user or those looking for something a little more nichey, longer chain keywords can help them easily find lots of results for the forums for torrents/rapidshit content, 1000's of hours of content added every day

>What niche works for you? What niche sucks?

I don't think this is niche related that one niche is hit more or less

Interesting link, thanks!

I actually was commenting the web 2.0. phenomenon in another thread.

I'm quite afraid of it, mainly from the economical view (although I am concerned it might case serious sociological issues too).

See- I know I can't push any porn star or I can't push big tits or big ass or ebony, or teen, because it's all so accessible for free right in front of everyone these days.

I'll put a promo and first thing you do is to find the porn star name at illegal tube and, well in the ideal case, you check if it's even worthy to join (ok this is the ideal case)

So I don't think I could get too good ratios with this.

Let me ask an idiotic question, can't you ask the SE to disclose the links to illegal content as in case of Germany?

Or is this all also related to the DMCA clusterfuck?

Over the last 10 years making money online with porn was very simple for anybody who was willing to work hard, he could make a lot of cash, things have changed these days especially for small webmasters and I am sorry to see that.

The main problem is that the last couple months a lot of different bad things came together at once and the summary of those things together is causing a big problem.

Here's the graph I'm talking about, I put it to my server:

http://www.carlosthegaucho.com/gfy/alexa.jpeg

How about this:

1) overload of free substitute on the net
2) cc scamming going on
3) no ethics - many will pull any scam they're capable of to steal your piece of the pie (connected with the point 1 and point 2)

Well, say this might be able to help with the over saturation, as many might close the shop.

But the problem is that the biggest scams will most likely remain in the game - should we rethink the meaning of ethics if we are on the web?

I actually book marked my first thread here so I can come back and read this later.

I know we will see 30 posts about how we need to adapt etc but lets face it. I surf tubes. You surf tubes and yet we still try to sell porn.

Tubes aren't going anywhere. They are getting bigger not smaller. We are going to be happy with less or work harder. Look at CD, DVD sales to get an idea of our future.

Very few industries are giving money away and the web was basically like that for a long time. Any idiot could make really good bank doing almost nothing.

I know alexa is not that great but how long can we pretend this is not happening?

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/tr...zydream.com?q=

I completely agree, the only part that actually adapted is the surfer.

I'll ask anyone who'll shout "adapt or die" to give me his concrete recipe for the "adaptation".

I'm not talking from personal experience though, as our stuff was always under promoted and it's also something completely different than what you find on tubes.

So anyone who would be or is already reading this and is about to accuse me of "whining" I'm telling you you should rather sign up, until our stuff (at least the offline and not the live part ) is stolen on some hong kong hosted illegit site that will take a lot of work to take down.

If your still banking your future in adult video you are foolish.

Traffic patterns have been erratic since 4th quarter last year for me.
:disgust

And this is not the first time I'm agreeing with you!

:winkwink:

Let's try to examine the problem in more detail, let's try to understand as many aspects as we can!

I don't know what happened, but we were just checking that out with MaDalton yesterday (he deserves credit for this thread) and something really had to happen, every single big site lost a lot of traffic practically overnight.

I was wondering if that was not some Alexa mess up as this would be the most obvious explanation, but google labs show the same and now someone even admitted that.

post pics for proof

Not a proof, just Alexa

:winkwink:

in the past years, i bought something like one membership a year, despite being webmaster and having a lot of access to entire sites.

I am not buying anymore, just go to tube. and I am not alone on GFY, who stop to buy memeberships, from what I have read here.

Main problem with this industry is its hypocrisy and self-destructive behaviour -being shortsighted, lying to the surfer, running credit cards and all sorts of things... the surfer never developed a liking for the industry, they could love a single website's content, but having to pay for it was an inconvenience as oppossed to something you wanted to do because it was both worth it and because you wanted the people who are running this awesome site to get something back for fulfilling your needs.

THAT's what makes tubes and forums and torrents popular, the surfer does not realize that they are being used to sell them something that is even more of a lie than a site that says it updates weekly and has 8 sets from 2003, because they're playing with people's feelings (OMG I'll finally have a girlfriend!): they SINCERELY think that the person who started the site is just a nice guy! he makes money from advertisements, but that's normal... it's like celebrity fansites, they're just doing it because they're nice guys... it's great that they're successful because they worked hard just to help people out! Just like myspace and facebook and youtube.

Why do you think some people have no problem in donating monthly to forums and buying rapidshare accounts? I bet if tubes had DONATE buttons they'd make bank too, even more than with the Premium mode. The surfer feels admiration and gratitude for these forums and sites, most paysites were never deserving of admiration or gratitude.

Mainstream DVDs and CDs sell for a couple of reasons now: because people who want to be in said industries or belong to it, buy them (but it doesn't happen with porn, we want everything free, we can get it for free after all...) or because the person REALLY loves the director, or an actor or a singer and wants to do "the right thing" or "give them a gift", because yes, there is people who don't even know it's all stolen stuff... "it's as if i borrowed it from a friend"

The way I see it, the industry needs a major clean up, and we need to educate the surfer - will it work? fuck if I know, but I do know that the sites that still get rebills and memberships are the ones that provide the surfer with something unique and that they find pleasant, and there is a reason for that.

I remember ShoeBitch, earlier this year or end of last, mentioned in one of his webcasts the same thing happened in mainstream for the same 4th quarter time frame. Not just on his site, but reference some other mainstream turds making mention of the same thing. So it is not just adult.

I have not anything since on if it has rebounded or not. I know there is a lot of panic out there.

Carlos is your product affected by this ?
I wouldn't think so, as its something that you can't find for free on the web.
Btw, I think you need to add some tools and put a bit more effort into getting traffic from affiliates.

affiliates are being phased out.

programs now are more dependant on their own traffic sources and direct advertising.

This graph coincides right about the time that issues with the world economy and the credit crunch began to hit, i.e September 2008. People stopped going to paid porn sites and tried to get off on free porn.

It could also just be something related to specifically to those kinds of sites. They are all over the tubes and the internet, maybe people are just getting tired of them and want something new.

Btw, I did a similar graph for redtube.com on alexa, and after peaking in around June 2008, traffic has been declining steadily every since. Looks like it is down at least 30% from it's peak.

Not really, I've even licensed 48 hours of full length video to a huge legit free site (they really have license for everything and I know the owner personally) and it's still (even after a year) doing around 1:400 - 1:500, which is somehow incredible, although the traffic is probably much, much better quality than most of the illegal sites, as it's more than 40 pct. of referred traffic from there from US and CAN.

But I can imagine if there's not the "different" "real" and "live" factor, it can as well be much tougher to upsell the content that's more "regular" and therefore extremely substitutable.

I don't see anything getting cleaned up, unless some decide to retire.

Surfers educated themselves, it took only to fuck the old ones around a couple times, wait till the new generation comes that knows how to deal with the internet, and now they're so educated they don't even pay!

:winkwink:

This have very little to do with the economy but a lot to do with how webmasters handled their business in the last couple years. Especially with the new avaliability of streaming full lenght videos online, but not just that. We lost the confidence of the surfers with the cross sales, fraud, charge backs, dialers, auto dialers, email spam and other deceptive marketing methods.

I totally agree, it's been actually finalized, more to come from me very soon.

I've waited till everything gets properly tested, plus there was some hassle getting the promos done by an outsourced company, but I kicked their asses already so it looks ok, more or less how I wanted it to, and I'll soon do some announcements.

Not hearing this for the first time.

Actually, this reminds me I'm still owing the guys from xbiz ad network a try with their ppc context solution, I kind of like the model, Lorenzo should be bugging me already, I haven't returned the contract yet.

Also keep in mind that Alexa changed how they do their rankings some time last year.

So you will see a lot of sites with some dramatic changes. I can't remember the time period when it happened, but I know it was in 2008 where they devalued something, and adjusted their traffic rating system accordingly.

They had discussed this to some degree on WMR.

I do not think it is a single magic bullet, but more like a combination of the perfect storm....

1. Economy. Credit crunch.
2. Tube sites.
3. Shady business practices.
4. Surfers becoming more educated.
5. Overabundance of free porn.

As ratios slid, affiliates and programs thought the answer was more free porn. Add in 200 programs doing this, and you have flood gates opening, and burying the web with free and crossing your toes for a sale.

Eventually people realize they do not need to pay for mainstream hardcore any longer.

:2 cents:

The shit finally is hitting the fan for the adult industry. Weird that it all worked for so long.
Webmasters need to find a substitute. There is no way around it. Microniches will work, but have a smaller market.

Well, surely interesting,

Might be I guess if you know one of those magic sites you know at least say three others, and you switch if you can't find the stuff you're looking for, cause you have a decent chance it will be available at another one of those.

Maybe tube8 just has better streaming or more content or something, so it's recently preferred over the "others".

Don't know, just hard to believe that people would stop or limit their jacking off.

Years ago this biz was easy and fun... it's no longer that way. Feels like a fucking job :2 cents:

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

Just did the same on Alexa for a popular porn torrent site. I won't post it here, because this place is full of surfers, but the Alexa for it looks worse than Realitykings or Brazzers. It looks like it is in a death spiral since last year.

I am just thinking maybe people are just sick of the same type of porn being produced over and over? Look at Realitykings and all these types of sites, it is the same girls having sex with the same guys over and over. The new stuff that is coming out is the same at the old stuff. Are people suffering from porn overload?

Nailed on the head.

The surfers of today are pretty well educated in using the net. What worked 5-8 years ago would most prob not work as well today. We forget that the surfers of today are bought up with the net and very quickly learn how not to pay for porn.
Hell my 18 year old son knows more about social networking, using proxies, getting free music, than what I do.ect.. They learn it from friends.
I had a very hard job trying to convince him that downloading "free music" would get him in trouble, It was the norm for him and all of his buddies, You go look on social networks and see how many people are giving links to "free" movies, music, ect amongest their friends. Trouble is we all still think as a webmaster does, We put up a porn site, which is similar to many other porn sites then expect surfers to pay for accessing it.
Why would the younger generation pay when they know where to get free porn from. My way of thinking is to somehow make the paysites as interactive as possible or as social as possible.
Honestly if you were a just a surfer..would you pay for access to a general porn site? It would have to be pretty spectacular and well priced unless you cater for a specific niche which is not over saturated

Here is a perfect analogy:

Just imagine if a store started giving away free generic cigarettes a pack at a time.

Many people would be happy with that and never buy Marlboros again.

They would go to this store every day for a free pack of generic smokes.

The store would have all kinds of traffic every day.

Marlboro sales would plummet.

This is where we are.

Yes Marlboro would plummet but would you gain from selling other products from the increased traffic. ???

Tube8 is one of the most illegal ones that I know off. Actual members uploading stolen movies. Tube8 also offers a download link for every movie to its members.
Youporn is popular in Germany, and has more amateur content. I think they are lagging behind, though, and recently started to add more DVD content as well.
Redtube is full of generic teen and pornstars movies that nobody knows if they licensed it or not. It's harder for the surfer to find an interesting piece on there.

I know porn is different from actually selling products in a shop but how many times have you walked into a shop to buy an item and come out with something you dident even want or were not specifically looking for. It happens all the time, and im sure surfers would do a similar thing if you offered them something that actually makes the surfer say "hey I want some of that"

Not if I am the Marlboro man!

That's because of Pornhub, Tube8, XHamster and the other rising tubes stealing some of it. :2 cents:

lol... I know what you mean but the shops offer "free" ( buy one get one free type of thing or free insurance for a year when you buy a new car) to get traffic into the shops and buy other products even if they loose out on giving away the free product, They must be making $$ out of it otherwise they wouldent do it. This is how the big tubes are working, they are offering full free movies but are also offering other products which you cant get for free very easily or by selling advertising, plugs, ect. Webmasters and program owners will pay stupid money for banners/ plugs/ links/ whatever on high traffic sites.