Industry Facts and Myths
 

Fact: If you take 100 naked pictures of a girl and give 99 of them away for free people will pay for the 100th

Fact: People will always pay for a flat image of a beautiful naked woman. The ultimate porn consumer sitting in front of his triple monitor system with 2 live cams sites up, 4 streaming HD 3D videos playing, 14 high rez images strategically placed on those screens with his fleshlight engaged will still be interested in a picture of Aria Giovanni in her prime or that first image we all saw of Tawnee Stone.

Fact: Dating Sites and Live cams while awesome revenue streams will not replace paysites; apples and oranges. I am a red-blooded American male and I have never looked at a cam site. I have never even thought about using my free pussycash minutes, lol. Lots of people do, but not everybody.

Myth: the paysite model is dead.

Fact: the overbilling model is dead

Fact: the growth of tube sites is unsustainable. I am not saying tubes will go away but their growth trajectory will diminish. This is true simply because the revenue from content based tube sites do not recapitalize content producers, they recapitalize dating and cam companies. Truly amateur ?submitted? videos make up too small percentage of their overall content portfolio to sustain the consumption (and let?s also state that ?real? submissions aren?t generally hot young girls) I should really make a mathematical equation from this, it would be Nobel worthy.

Fact: The ?brand? is the value of your company. The affiliate programs going out of business had no identity. Their identity boiled down to $XXX PPS period. Success going forward is the quality and distribution of your brand to the consumer not to the middleman.

Fact: The affiliate program AS WE KNEW it is dead. Yankscash to me is purely a vehicle for a select few people who understand my brand to land it in front of the surfers they touch. If you look at my program and see X% or $X PPS you won?t succeed for long. I believe this will eventually become true for all programs in the future. Gone are the days when affiliates sold a program, they will need to sell a product.

Fact: Quality will beat out convenience. Technology like 3D will blow away the revenue made from mobile. The key is to make the surfers experience as close to real sex as possible. I am not saying there isn?t money in mobile, I am just saying the hype is more interesting than the reality.

:2 cents:

Anymore Facts and Myths?

Dude.... I've been busting my ass for the last nine months to keep a lid on this type of shit and firmly cement the propaganda that porn is dead & there is no money to be made... and then here you come with your "post" undoing all my work here.

How the hell is a guy supposed to gain an edge when you keep spouting truth posts to the kindergarten class?

sorry I will distract them all in my next post with some strawberry milk and ants on a log. :thumbsup

FACT: Strawberry milk kicks ass

MYTH: Ants on a log never really live up to the shear awesomeness of the concept

FACT: Bears eat beets.

but only Shrute Farm beets

Never understood the interest in Tawnee Stone.


Fact: A convertible car is nice in the sunshine :)

Myth: You won't end up looking like a drowned rat when it rains as long as you go fast enough :(

Hmmm.... I'm going to have to take issue with this fact here, and note that mobile and 3D are not actually mutually exclusive market sectors or mutually exclusive technological fields. (There's already 3D content for mobile in existence, for that matter.)

As for whether mobile revenue is more hype than reality....

Fact: It's important not to interpret your own lack of market share as a lack of potential in the relevant market itself.


No offense intended. ;-)

Your convertible car theory sounds solid.

In regards to Tawnee Stone I have to say getting an LS mailer with her in it, doing some high kick as I remember, was a huge ah-ha moment for me in the biz.

I had just started in the industry, I was just doing it at home, had no idea GFY existed and had yet to go to my first show. But that pic, damn, Tawnee Stone was the original G-friend content. It was the girlfriend in HS or soon after that everybody wanted but few had. The pic looked real and really sucked you in.

That single picture gives me faith in the biz. Because no matter how much technology or free content is out there the right approach with the right girl will always get the consumers wallet out. And if you give them something new along the same quality to look at they will stay.

Great post Todd!

The porn technology is being improved. It needs to be more 3D.

Here is a list of products ranked from [01](most 3D) to [11](least 3D):

[01] Fucking in real life
[02] Massages in real life
[03] Lap dances in real life
[04] Sexy song and dance from many feet away
[05] Holograms of fucking
[06] Fucking toys controlled by remote control
[07] Life size sex doll
[08] 3D porn on computer screen
[09] 2D porn on computer screen
[10] Audio of fucking noises only
[11] Text of fucking only

no offense taken, I welcome the debate and your knowledge in regards to mobile is certainly deeper then mine. I suppose my statement was more one of where I feel the greatest potential lies. And that was simply one of quality over mobility.

You of course do both.

But to your fact I do have a bone to pick, several years ago I did develop a proprietary mobile CMS and distribution system. The system was very capable and is really just now being duplicated. I keep up with the technology and opportunities and I believe there are still many issues in regards to access and billing that stand in the way of making great new mobile technology as profitable as new convergence technology or technology that deals with a deeper user experience.

But also to your fact I do have a slight case of sour grapes in regards to mobile so I am not totally unbiased.

FACT: The amount of shear money and marketing that can be thrown behind a product can also lead to misinterpretation of the products potential.

Truly no offense either
from one bitter ex-mobile technologist to one well funded one. lol.

:yinyang

Heheh -- totally understood and all good.

I was a major mobile skeptic for years, myself, even after we'd thrown ourselves at the mobile market as a company. It wasn't until the results/revenue really started hitting that I converted to a mobile evangelist.

For the record, I dig Yanks' products/people/approach to the market and always have. :thumbsup

Thanks, Anthony

Thank you and right back at Topbucks too. And thru my bitterness I will send you some positive vibes for all the best with the mobile. :)

This basically depends on the type of surfer, fan or general consumer.

The difference we see between pics and vids are confirming that picture content seems more powerfull (conversion wise) then video content. If we would change to a full video site traffic would probably go up but conversions woudl be down.

Apples and oranges indeed.

Agreed, however the paysite model in its current form is dying (not dead). You can't get away anymore with some feeds and bi weekly updates. People want value for money and I can not blame them.

Overbilling as in Xsales?

Just a week or so ago I checked a joinform and notice in really nice fine print how the trial would convert into a 3 month $99 membership if you didn't cancell in time lol

Do the mathematical equation please ;)))

Totally agree. When people say Bangbros is not selling anymore due to being overpromoted I tell them otherwise. People recognize the brand and people pay for it. easy. Besides that this whole brand thing is something I truly love since its one of our main things we are focussing on here at FreeOnes

"As we knew" is key here, the affiliate model will (is) change for sure.

Ride the hype, www.freeones3d.com :thumbsup


PS great post!

Nice post Todd... I do have to disagree with the Mobile.

In 2008 adult mobile broke $2 billion in revenue, with only 2% being produced in America. It has a grown a huge amount in America in the last two years and 27 more Countries have started using Smartphones in that two years. This time last year in America, half the phones sold were Smartphones. From 08, 09, and 2010 each quarter the amount of smartphones basically doubles over what it was the previous years matching quarter. The mobile Internet is booming, $37 billion was spent in 2008 for digital content (wallpaper, ringtones, downloadable games, music, video). The Mobile Internet has already taken an extreme chunk out of the PC Internet. The Mobile Internet & Devices are cheaper which is why you see 27 new Countries on the map and the technology isn't grid-locked in patents, allowing the technology to grow/expand & get faster, quicker than PC technology can.

Various sources:
https://www.juniperresearch.com/whit...ob=title2&pg=5
http://www.trendbird.co.kr/1782
http://mashable.com/2010/02/05/smartphones-sales/
http://metrics.admob.com/
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1421013
http://mobilebeyond.net/mobile-inter...ternet-growth/

P.S. 3D plays on mobile devices. At some point we will have 3D Skype Video calls. It's going to continue towards faster, better, larger storage mobile devices, which have already started to make the PC obsolete in some homes and even jobs.

great responses, Roald. Thanks

Thanks and sorry my mobile bias does shine thru a bit. However, purely in the interest of debate, especially with someone with a mind I respect. I have a few thoughts.

I think there are way to many other forces at work on the PC internet besides just mobile to equate the drop in PC sales directly to mobile devices. I believe it would be a rarity for someone with dollars to spend on porn to chose a mobile purchase over a PC purchase if a PC was readily available. The exception would be text based services.

Of course the problem with the PC is you just don't need to pay to see all the good stuff, lol.

In regards to the countries that are choosing smartphones over PCs. Those countries choose a cheaper device for a reason, they have less disposable income. Mobile products in these countries need to be priced very low and in most cases too low to allow for the revenue to be sliced and diced the way it currently is and find it's way to the products owner in significant amount. Of the countries mentioned how many are a flat out wash to even enter with a decent product of any kind?

True, but that will eventually be an expected feature of video on all devices across the board. I believe when you talk the potential of 3D the users best experience will be in front of the largest screen possible. The real money here is in convergence technology over PC or mobile.

A fact to note; everybody arguing this fact of mine is jaded pro-mobile in the same way I am anti-mobile so there a grain of salt in in order from both sides. I would love to see a response from an affiliate who pushing multiple products and an idea of real numbers after any promotional expenses. I say this not as a skeptic, but purely someone who is curious.

Lastly, while my opinion is tainted, I really don't want to come across as anti-mobile or anti-topbucks. I just wanted to start a nice long thread today so people see how god damn brilliant I am and decide to push what must be the incredible company I run, lol.

All the best, great response Chris

I'm totally bias towards mobile :)


Lots of people buy porn on a mobile device, it's 3-5% of the traffic and equal to the buying power of the PC Internet. People are using the device for email, life, chat, business, etc. The need to use a PC to get that fix or for any reason, is going away.

It's only about price in some Countries, for most it's about Internet Speed. The people can have money to spend, they just don't Internet or the PC Internet they do have is complete shit or restricted to internet cafe because of a limited amount of bandwidth.

Mobile devices have lifted that limit... these are people with money to spend and the mobile device offers the ability to spend money, without a credit card - in some Countries.

As these years pass by, the mobile device will be able to plug into your TV/projector and play whatever movies you want, streaming or live. The Mobile phone will become faster than the PC is. :2 cents:


No worries, no anti-anything going on here... We're all here to make some money. Mobile isn't a cake walk, it's for sure not something you slap up and walk away from. The technology is an extreme pain in the ass and changes all the time, it has no real standard. But that's why I think it's here to stay. However if 3D is hot and can pull in the numbers, then no reason to ignore it either - for sure when it will work on so many technologies.

Sweet... I knew I was paying out the photographer and models for no reason. This will greatly lower production costs, thanks for the fact!

great responses, I think the above is most interesting. True plug and play convergence will be really nice. I just redid my AV system and was a bit shocked to see that in order to really take advantage of all the aspects of current gaming, entertainment and internet content I still needed to have a blu-ray player, xbox and small barebones pc. The xbox and the blu-ray come close, but the small PC is still needed to fill the gaps.

It will be nice when you have only inputs, outputs and a big fat cloud.

Actually, he just killed himself yesterday.


edit, correction: It was a heart attack, actually. Too much wacarnolds.

So what you're trying to say is that the porn economy is currently in a Tube Site Bubble?

I agree with it all :)

Fact: freeloaders heaven is on tubes now :(

Well I wouldn't really say a bubble as I don't think think the amount of tube sites will decline or the traffic they generate will decline or pop. I simply think the rate of growth will slow and they will reach sustainable equilibrium in regards to the rest of the business.

I would say that if tubes haven't killed you yet, chances are they won't.

Fact: With computers and internet becoming more of a staple in more lives, more people are becoming at least remotely net savvy.

Fact: Anyone remotely net savvy that enjoys porn understands that the same porn some people are still paying for is almost entirely for free on tubes with minor if any inconvenience.

Fact: 99.9% of people will choose free with minor if any inconvenience over paying for the same thing...this is true for just about anything.

Fact: Tech advances move fast for everything, not just 1 thing. HD is nice and takes up a lot of bandwidth, but with computer tech advancing, the bandwidth to handle HD won't cost shit soon enough. Ditto with 3D and any other "premium" content one could cook up.

Opinion: The only way to avoid getting obliterated in the coming years if not already is via live, whether it be live online or live in person, which is why cam, chat and dating love tubes and will continue to flourish, though sites like MFC and the inevitable Chat Roulette-style free dating site to come along will hurt those models even if they themselves make a lot of money, because people will again go for free with minor if any inconvenience over paying for the same thing.

Fact: I drink your milkshake.

FACT: I'm bored...

-
<-------------- Fact :)

Fact: porn aint dead and never will be

Porn production isn't free.

Cause it's free now.

I agree 100%


I agree 100%

I think 99.9% is high. People pay for sex in all forms. And there are a great many people in this world that can drop $1000s of dollars for 15 minutes of entertainment so therefore dropping $30 to save themselves 15 minutes of searching is not even an after thought. I agree that that number is high and troubling but not that high.

In addition, tubes vids aren't the best quality available and torrents are a pain and not instant. So will people pay for premium instant gratification? absolutely.

I agree here too. I will add that I believe there will be just enough of a gap so that delivering the highest rez video quality cannot be done for free. In the days of the TGP you needed to watch your wmv size and today's tubes need to watch their flv size. Their will be just enough lag to warrant paying for the best.

I will still say apples and oranges. People are all different, I have a story site that kills traffic wise, just daily updated text stories. Women love them. I know guys who like cams and guys that don't. Personally they do nothing for me. But I respect your opinion on this and it is certainly a huge market.



Thanks for the response. I can't believe I had two doctors respond, lucky me.

I have enjoyed reading this thread thus far :thumbsup

I agree with some and STRONGLY disagree with some of your points

I gotta assume you're kidding here, so won't elaborate on the subject

to some extent. It will always depend on quality, niche and some "wow" factor. "Ultra tech" people usually won't pay much for porn, furthermore, people paying will be people that want some specific content or experience delivered in an easy, non nonsense way

I agree with this. I know there are some hardcore fans of cams, but I really don't get the point of it.

Like Roald said, it's not dead. But the paysite model AS WE KNOW IT is dying for sure.

if you're talking about Xsales, It will never die, there will always be shady people. Now, if we're talking on profit optimization and additional revenue, then adult industry didn't even start, and it will be key for the survival of many companies. Then again, nobody even tried to start

as a matter of fact I explained this like 2 years ago. However, what I didn't figure at that time (and now I do) is that what we're discussing is just the tip of the iceberg. Nowadays, if I had such traffic sources I'd rack millions a month by doing just a slight minor change in their business model. I've reasons to believe those tubes are already making the change to that next step

this deserves a pretty long discussion on its own since there are many variables and scenarios, but based on they way you're describing it, yeah, I gotta agree in general

Agreed 100%. I told people about that more than a year ago, and what would be happening and why would it happen, and while some people agreed or added some very good insight to that view, many people laughed. Guess they're still wondering what happened to their checks.

strongly disagree. you're confusing media formats with delivery technology. I certainly don't get the reason why to navigate using a cell phone, but, objectively speaking, there's no doubt mobile is having a blat and only increasing. Furthermore, for many people, especially older men, 3D is frankly annoying. Add to that the inconvenience of 3d glasses, the crappy 3D content most studios will launch only because it's "the new wave" (many studios can't shoot decent 2D content, why would they do it better in 3D?) and sincerely I can't even see how can you compare convenience to inconvenience and lack of quality

ANyway, good discussion, but IMHO some of your facts are the exact opposite to reality :2 cents:

[QUOTE=harvey;17441858]I agree with some and STRONGLY disagree with some of your points



The general point I was making is the level of consumption. Logically if you had one hot video and it got you off you should never need another but that isn't they way we tick. I was setting up that consumer will eventually get bored of the 99 and want a peek at what they can't have. As a "FACT" I can see how it looks like a joke. I am sure you get what I mean in general.



I agree niche is where it is at.



Funny how that goes, I see how I should like it, but just don't. Obviously many do though


Agreed, I liked what he said and would say that the old paysite model is dead. However I would never consider sites full of purchased over exposed crap a paysite. When I say the paysite is not dead I look at paysites such as the one I run with daily quality exclusive content. So we are actually on the same page here.

I agree Xsells will never die, however many companies have obviously lost their ability to profit off of the quality of their site so I think think they are severly diminished amongst what were considered reputable companies. As far as profit optimization I agree with your take there.


I run a tube site using mostly my own content with some affiliate stuff mixed in where as the first ten videos a month are free and then it is $9.95 per month which includes access to all my sites. It works well and I would love to see every tube do the same.


Agreed


Agreed


My thought process is admittedly half backed here. If I can change that I would say

OPINION: if I had $100k to invest in either a company bringing adult to the phone or a higher quality medium to the PC and TV in the form of 3D I would choose the later.

I also agree that most 3D is pretty annoying, however give it a few years and some upgrades and it will be OK. Ironically some of the best I have seen is just a girl by herself with the right lighting. Keep it simple. It had its moments.

Thanks, I don't think our thoughts are that far off, I just think you clarified some missed details.

If there is any benefit to the biz tanking it is the quality of discussion lately. There is are really bright people here.

99.9% might be high, but keep in mind too the economy...the money isn't flowing for most people like it used to.

IMO torrents/rapidshare/etc. are a very minor thing compared to tubes. I agree that most people don't have patience these days and expect to get what they want immediately when it comes to stuff online. Tubes ARE instant gratification. Even if one particular tube might not have EXACTLY what or who someone is looking for, people will figure out soon enough that searching for "(what they're looking for) tube" will in most cases pull up a result on a prominent tube.

I agree on the gap, but the issue is that it then winds up being the pay sites paying for all their content now for a little gap of opportunity to snag members in the brief period of time before tubes are able to sustain such content, so to me it's both a matter of it ending up tubes eventually and the worth of the pay site doing what they do to make the content for a much lesser reward than before.

You do bring up something I should have - there are some things that are not really "mainstream adult"...stuff like sex stories, erotica and whatnot that, like cam/chat/dating, aren't really affected by tubes. I'm sure there's others but can't think of them off the top of my head. In anything the best markets to be involved in are the ones with the lowest ratio of competition to opportunity, and smaller markets like those are always going to be viable because they are things that at least some people will be into but not major enough for it to be worth obliterating in the eyes of the major players, so competition won't be as major. Cam/chat/dating however certainly are huge and aren't really affected by tubes as of yet, so they're more or less the refuge of choice at this point for many until something comes along that might put them at jeopardy. I do give props to MFC as they found a way to make money for themselves and the models while still delivering stuff that people don't have to pay for, but I'm sure cams being available for free doesn't exactly help the cam industry as a whole.

LOL I'm not a doctor...I had the domain Porn.md when I signed up here (not anymore) and have been too lazy to request a name change. I iz just a domainer who has done a bit of aff stuff here and there, but thought it would be relevant to bring up a surfer perspective.

Bump for mah boy =)

But I can get the 100th one for free too.

People? as in more than 1 i suppose? Ok, I will give that to you, "people" will always pay for that... I suppose it is possible two or more people in the world would pay for a flat image.

cams and dating wont replace paysites but tub sites will replace most pay sites.

Well, it depends on what you are selling. If your paysite consists of more than just images and videos, such as interaction with the members then it should still hang on.


There is enough porn out there that it can be and will be recirculated and regurgitated several times. I believe there is enough porn out there now that if someone sat down and started watching every free porn video on the net 50 years from now they wouldn't be 1/2 way through it all. Not to mention pay sites still are producing new content every day... which is being stolen. Also cam shows are being recorded and used for content as well.

Crappy companies who put shit products out and rip off customers aren't really worried about building a brand. If you cut out the "middle man" then there will be a lot less people finding out about your brand. Less affiliates = less traffic = less branding (exposure).

Affiliate program is a live and kicking well for cams and dating, and some pay sites. The affiliate model may be getting thinned out, but it is not going anywhere.

one thing really doesn't have anything to do with the other, money can be made from both of them.