My prediction: Flash will die within 5 years.
 

I believe the new HTML 5 elements + Javascript could entirely replace Flash in a near future.

Here are some amazing JS experiments that really convinced me:


http://gyu.que.jp/jscloth/
http://editor.pixastic.com/

There is even some experimental OpenGL plugins for JS to handle 3d graphics.

What do you think?

:Oh crap

Those two examples are nothing new. JS has been able to do shit like that since long before the 21st century. JS will not replace flash, I hate to tell you. You fail.

Well..neither link work with IE. Whoopeedoo for the revolution!

Not a chance. It's more then likely you dont understand 75% of what Flash can do, when you make predictions like that

Sorry but the canvas element has been around for less than a year.

Name one thing that Flash is able to do that won't be doable with HTML5 + Javascript.

The main barrier I see for the moment is the lack of powerful authoring tools like Flash has... which is only a matter of time.

There is a mile long list, but the most important is, that it dont care what browser you use. It will work 100% - every time - no downloads needed.


There is nothing that comes even close to it atm, when it comes to webapplications using rich media

Work with java disabled?

And outside of canvas element their have been java tests in the 3d realm going back years... I remember playing with strata 3d models in java browser layouts back in 96-97.

Here is an HTML 5 demo page on YouTube. Flash is not used at all for the video...
https://youtube.com/html5

and it dont play if you have a tight setup if your security

It tries to load a JS and run it locally on my computer

Flash runs 100% without trying to load unwanted scripts to your computer.

sorry but flash is geting way more improved then java :)

Hate it when people say "java" when they mean "javascript".

will flash gordon also die?

Uh... Flash is the one which requires a download. It's a browser plugin. Right now, most people can't render html 5 since it's too recent but once it is widely supported, I don't see why developers would continue to use a proprietary plugin such as Flash.

Also, for people arguing that Flash works when Javascript is disabled: there are much more Javascript-enabled browsers than Flash-enabled browsers.

I think a lot of people in this thread are confused between Java and Javascript.

You cant even compare those two plugins. It's like comparing a platform to a framework. Honestly, its REALLY sounds like you dont even understand what Flash is, what it does, how it works or how it corporate with the Web or media services

People use flash because you can be 100% sure it works in the browser, no matter what PC, browser, connection speed or security settings.

The scripts you linked to, tries to download and run a script on the local computer. Most people will have both browsersetting and security setting that prevent that from ever running

So you are left with a "Error loading script" error on a blank page

I remember Java was the biggest thing since sliced bread, car computers ran it, toasters ran it, every computer ran it, people did degrees in Java, then millions of websites had Java in them and they all took minutes to load, 90% of them said "Class not found" and the other 10% did some silly animation. The virtual computer at the heart of Java was slow as a dog. Then Flash comes along and just compiles programs like every real language and blows Java out of the water.

So HTML 5 could run a camgirl site then? Browsers will continually improve so his prediction could be right. Flash is all you need but they'll still build it.

You are obviously the one who is ignorant here.

1. Both Flash and Javascript run on the local machine.
2. Javascript is much more likely to run on all clients. Javascript is natively supported by 100% of browsers, unlike Flash which requires user to download and install the Flash plugin.
3. If your browser settings prevent you from using Javascript, then it most likely disables Flash as well. By the way, about 99% users have javascript turned on.
4. If the demos didn't work on your computer, it means your browser doesn't support HTML 5. You should get Firefox 3.5 to make sure it works. Within 5 years, 99% of browsers will support HTML 5.

1 - yes, they both run on the local computer, but that is the only thing they have in common. With JS you download a whole script and excecute it locally. It will NEVER happen - EVER

2 - Simply NOT true. Make a simple test. Take on site with loads of traffic, and integrate one flashfile and try and load/execute a JS scriptfile locally on the same computer

You will see the difference.

3 - again, simply not true. But if that is what you belive, then it explain why you came up with that prediction.

4 - there are no browser that fully support html5 for the simple reason, html5 is still only a draft of what may come

The case for proprietary add-ons: They're better and available today

I have see this "HTML 5 is really the second coming of the internet" since the first draft came. Hell, nobody even know if its fully developed in 5 years.

Look how long it have taken to get CSS to where it is today, and its still far from complete.

Think you may be right.

The latest versions of Firefox and Opera both implement HTML 5. I don't see why most people would not have HTML 5 enabled browsers within 5 years.

Javascript is enabled by default on all browsers. Flash requires users to download and install a software. I don't see how Flash would have a better support...

IE8, Firefox and Opera all implement PARTS of the comming HTML 5 elements. None of them supports all


Flash get installed on most computers as one of the first things, since so many banners are in that format. Or at leat it will be done, first time someone visit youtube or a movietrailer site.

Safari comes bundled with flash player as well

Javascript is enabled by default, sure, but that still dont change the fact that most AV programs will block the most scripts from being downloaded and run locally on your PC, if people run a even remotely safe browser / OS

Did you even try any of these HTML 5 pages? Did you get this "Error loading script" message? Has anyone you know gotten it when viewing an HTML 5 page?

Every HTML 5 page I have tried to open in Chrome 3 works flawlessly. Maybe I'm just lucky... :)

a short quote from their own site

It is estimated that HTML5 will reach the W3C Candidate Recommendation stage during 2012

Did you read my reply? how would I have been able to paste the tupical error, if I havent tried it?

Everyone with a secure IE8 would have gotten the same error.

I have tested demos for ms DOM and Ajax based HTML 5 elements, adn they both work fine in IE8. But Sysk is talking about replacing the flash capabilities by downloading scripts and executing them locally.

Flash and MS Silver will integrate with HTML 5, not be replaced by

:2 cents:

Flash is alot more than just media... if you add an application server like FMS, Wowza or Red 5 you really get to the meat that is the power of flash. It's an application platform that is unequaled by any other technology out there (that I know of). Personally, I think flash is the future of the web. :2 cents:

anyone figured vector in browsers beside using flash or forcing everyone to d/l some activeX plugin for SVG?

No antivirus that I know blocks javascript. Stop insisting on the fact that JS is run locally on your PC because Flash is too.

Also I wasn't talking about replacing Flash entirely but flash as a web browser plugin.

Use a browser that supports HTML 5. Chrome 3 or Firefox 3.5. IE8 doesn't.

Try and install a secure antivirus program then

YES they are both run locally, but the difference is WHAT is run locally.
Flash PRESENT a result generated by the server (+ a few very simple flash script elements that is run In the movie)

JS downloads a scritpt that you, as a user, have close to zero chance of knowing what it does to your PC. That is why MOST people with a secure PC blocks Clientside scripts

I still dont belive you know a lot about flash and how it integrates with the backend for both application servers, and streaming.

Nobody will build sites that only 10-15% of the surfers can load

IE8 support some HTML 5 elements, just as FF3,5 and Crome also ONLY support SOME HTML 5 elements

Try using Facebook with Javascript disabled and let us know how it goes.

For your interest, my antivirus is Norton from Symantec.

I give up.. 3 resons

1 - you dont understand the difference between "blocking unwanted scripts" and "disable Scripts"
2 - you clearly dont understand what flash really CAN do
3 - you think Norton from Symantec is a secure Antivirus


Good luck with your prediction. I tried to reason with you, and provide factbased feedback, but you dont want to listen. You only want us to support you prediction - nothing else

I accept your capitulation, sir. :pimp

nothing special

haha - if that somehow saves your day, then fine with me :1orglaugh

VTML is nothing new but you still need to download something in case of your example

Right, but not here http://gyu.que.jp/jscloth/.

Decade ago I was consulting for Lucent, there was this JS guy doing some amazing stuff with it, he had some sort of js 3d engine and making small "games" with it for fun similar to stuff presented in your links. nothing new..

of course it will be sweeter adding programmatic functionality to html.. but replacing flash.. until you get all their features right on web without need to download anything additional and ease of implementation, flash will stay

Your predictions is obvious...