do you think an Asteroid will hit Earth in the 21st century ?
 

anyone here interested a little in this subject?

from what I know, the chances for a big collision are minimal because they happen once every few millions years, but f.e chances for an impact similar in scale to the Tunguska Event aren't that small.....

Converting the damage of impacts, to risk, the chances of getting killed by asteroids are bigger than in traffic :) :upsidedow :Oh crap

I worry more about the human made type of falling objects, such as frozen toilet waste from jetliners.

Ron

It's entirely possible that it can happen at any given moment. We had a very near miss a couple of years ago that we didn't even notice until it would have been far too late. We're only tracking what, 1% of the sky? And even if we do see it, we can't do fuck all about it.

Eskimos do not fly :)

It will happen when it happens not shit we can do about it, But could be in a minute could be in a thousand years but it will happen.

Hope not but its certainly possible

damn, if that happens.. that the end of the world..

Funny... I just watched a show today about the Mayan calendar and how it stops on Dec 21, 2012... Hmmm...

Indubitably

Absopositindubitably.

i doubt it

As sooner as better.

Here is a list of impact risk for the next 100 years.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

On the "Torino Scale" there is one in 2102 and it's at "1".

99.99840000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth

1 :

A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.

:1orglaugh

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale.html

interesting explanation of the Torino scale.....

where did you get the exact probability?

and BTW how is this probability compared f.e to the probability that your tommorows plane from Chicago to New York will crash?

just curious

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

And click on the "Impact prob." link.

Asteroids are objects that they can track. You can't predict that your plane will crash, but you can use statistics.

interesing question is what would happen if a really big asteroid hit Earth and destroyed most of the human civilisation

let's say if 1% of mankind would survive, then how would the "new" civilisation look like f.e 100 years after the impact, assuming the Eart's climate would turn back to what we know today, after few decades

We (humanity) really only have to worry about 1,150 known asteroids; these are the only ones that can cause significant damage to us. Then out of those, there is a smaller percentage capable of causing catastrophic global climate change and wide-spread extinction. One of these massive asteroids will strike the Earth around every half million years, some obviously causing more damage than others. The SGS (Spaceguard Survey) should be done mapping the majority of asteroids as well as comets that can cause such devastating damage to our planet by 2008.

Not to be a cliché from bad space movies? but it really is just a question of when, rather than if, an asteroid or comet capable of removing humanity from this sphere comes hurdling through the solar system. The real question is can we stop it in time to preserve our species? I don?t think so; the best ?method? they have atm is to push the comet or asteroid using nukes (not direct strikes as it wouldn?t do much damage and could just make the problem worse by splitting the object into thousands of pieces). Maybe in a century we?ll have some way of dealing with killer rocks? but not now.

If we were to see a comet or asteroid this century that is large enough to cause global climate change and wide-spread extinction, humanity would probably be destroyed in the process. There is some small chance you could survive the initial impact (depending on the size of comet or asteroid) but the many years of the sun being blocked out is going to destroy almost any chance of you able to successfully find food/and or hunt for survival. If you somehow managed to get the world to work together, you may just be able to save enough humans by putting them deep underground.

Even then? repopulating the planet with such a small genetic pool seems very unlikely. You may be able to sustain a small pool of humans for x number of years, but eventually (and probably sooner than later) the remainder of the human population will dwindle and dwindle until there simply just isn?t enough genetic variance to sustain a healthy population. More and more kids will start being born with more and more genetic abnormalities until the species eventually inbreeds itself into extinction. And that is story of how Moses saved Egypt from the robots.

thank God for Jupitor or many asteroids would have hit earth by now already!

some video simulations

https://youtube.com/watch?v=e-R3xN-U3Bk

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Uwb3FDkxfgQ

https://youtube.com/watch?v=oB3G0rvCIJc

that's the part that fascinates me

I guess I should find a different forum though to discuss such things.

Asteroid will not hit us beause we going to blow it in orbit.

that second one is brutal i never thoguht about how it would look, looking down on to the earth

If it did - it'd be funny.

yeah, I love those... particularly the 3rd one. Not that I want it to happen, but damn, it is well done.

nooooope.

i don't think so...

asteroids hit earth every century im pretty certain

Very little possiblity...

we will all die from overpopulation and disease long before the next asteroid hits

yeah as said above, I need to find another board for it

now feel free to move on to a "would you hit it" thread or in "jimthefiend fucked my brother"

Good topic...

I put down a pretty sizable wager at Ladbroke's that the earth will in fact be hit by an astroid this century. Those suckers are going to paying me out the butt when the planet is split in two.

You see, the odds they offered were - let's say, astronomical.

I can't wait to see their faces when I go in to collect. They were looking all smug when I placed my bet, and I'm sure that they thought I couldn't hear them snickering as I turned and walked out the door with my bet slip firmly in hand.

Well, we will see who has the last laugh...

ADG Webmaster

scary shit :helpme

hm.... can I still place such bet? LadBrokes.com is my favorite bookie but nothing about it

and what were the odds and how they define an asteroid? does it have to kill at least 100 people or what ?

http://www.bob-wonderland.supanet.co...riodImpact.jpg


after that.....


http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/3...ve_bbc_150.jpg

I'm more worried about hameroids hitting the earth.....:eek7