Odysseus

10-20 days and we have:
http://wegcash.com/ - "we will no longer be accepting referrals"...
http://adult-profit.com/ - "The program has not been profitable in a significant time"...
http://quickbuck.com/ - "no longer accepting new affiliates"...

Bad trend. But who is next?

digitaldivas

I predict maybe 20 percent of adult aff programs, dead by Dec 31, 2010

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FilthyRob

There are a lot of programs. This isn't close.

I wanted to make a thread similar. Who is closed/closing??

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Davy

Only the shady ones will fold in 2010.

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Argos88

there are many more that closed during the last 10 months. some officially and literally (with anouncements), other just by stopping paying webmasters, etc...

And the trend will continue, for obvious reasons.

And then you have some idiots saying the adult business is in its best period ever and that everything is normal. Those guys are going to sink with the ship.

.

Jack Sparrow

You dont have a clue, do you?

Zester

who just stopped paying webmasters?

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Manowar

i wasnt aware about quickbuck, that sucks

BIGTYMER

Adapt or die time.

SGS

I think it will be a lot higher than that unless they make a lot of changes.

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jerryb

quickbuck closed

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PhDV

Looks like RevShare programs will be popular again.
I think we should expect more crazy PPS programs to hit the bottom

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Paul Markham

The business is changing for sure. Sellers need to adapt with it.

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Jack Sparrow

Say goodbye to crazy pps and hello to revshare.

My bet is the pps will be stopping soon, or those will be the first to go down. More then 1 reason pps isnt going to cut it anymore.

Next in line will be the programs that where depending to much on their sales and throwing a lot of the revenue overboard (buying overpriced adspace on every site they can find). They will be pannicking and the first sign will be removing the pps features because of the high risk factor.

Could go on for a while about this subject.

seeandsee

let's go back to mighty Revshare and good members area!

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Konkan

Transition in the biz for sure

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Agent 488

big pps 4 life.

Barefootsies

It will be higher then that, and I doubt all will make "official announcements".

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mpahlca

Do you all think revshare programs will keep paying the same percent? I expect that to drop as well

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PlugRush Sascha

I don't think PPS will disappear. It will simply be an amount per sale that the affiliate program can justify paying someone without cross sales. There was PPS before cross sales and there will probably be PPS after cross sales have been mostly murdered off.

I would rather make legitimate sales (revshare or PPS) where the surfer isn't getting ripped off than to have to worry about processor issues that bring entire affiliate programs to their knees.

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Varius

I think that many (not all) affiliates want so much done for / handed to them these days, that it doesn't make business sense to put much focus on your affiliate program. Programs are better suited developing their own traffic in-house.

I always found it funny how the large, serious affiliates who make you the most need very little of your time, while the guys bugging you all day long produce barely anything.

The programs who will hurt the most, are the ones who lack the knowledge to put the proper infrastructure in place to build up their own traffic sources.

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Barefootsies

Correct on both accounts.

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"Would you rather live like a king for a year or like a prince forever?"

sortie

Your point about sponsors doing all these things for affiliates is off to me since
before the sponsor did all these things I did it all myself.

Doing galleries myself, buying content, making my own banners etc... didn't
take so long that I wouldn't do it for affiliates.
Affiliates should be looking for traffic, not each building a gallery with the same
content I give out. That's 1000 duplicate galleries if you have 1000 affiliates.
Why waste the affiliates time like that?

Further, how is a sponsor going to build "in-house" traffic without making galleries,
free sites etc...So after making the stuff anyway, how does it make sense to not
make it available to affiliates?

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sortie

Not much I would think.

The whole reason for $40 PPS was to compete for affiliates by paying more.
If everybody is paying 50/50 revshare and you want 40/60 for the same
niche then your link may be placed in a lower position on my page.

The lower payout does not mean higher conversions so why send traffic to that?

Lower payout on revshare would just mean I would quit. It's barley worth a fuck
now with these low conversions.

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TrashyContent

Well I did say ages ago the new VISA regs regards cross sales would impact, people said no... cough, well I guess it did ! Yes Revshare seem's the way forward... yay as our new program will most definetly be aimed at Rev !

What makes me laugh is over the past couple of days I have seen a $222 PPS and a $300 PPS ! WTF ! lol... it goes from bad to worse !

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BlackCrayon

I don't see why it would..if people could offer 50% in 1996 why can't they do it now? If anything it costs less to run clean affiliate programs now.

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TrashyContent

What affiliate wants 50% ??? In my experience they feel programs should pay them 80% and be thankful for their sales lol...

That's of course what PPS as done... made people think the site owners can pay unrealistic amounts and not make a profit or stay in business lol... hopefully now cross sales have been cut back, and the stupid PPS will come down people can return to the real world...

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BlackCrayon

To me, revshare is 50..maybe 60 sometimes but I wouldn't expect any more. Those that do are just stupid. I made a lot more money in this business in the early days when there was no PPS, just 'sliding scale' and revshare.

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Robbie

Our price is $29.99 per month. The biller costs $5.63 The affiliate gets 50% which is $14.99

I end up with a whopping: $9.37

And that's after I pay to shoot the content, take care of 2257, take the legal risks, pay hosting for the website, AND spend the time to make galleries that I then HOST for the affiliate as well.

You tell me...as an affiliate would YOU do all that work for $9.37 a sale? Well, program owners do it all day long.

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Agent 488

lol like affiliate don't deserve to earn that in the huge investment in time and money for traffic, scripts, seo, research, marketing some put out.

Robbie

I've made a whole lot of money over the years as an affiliate. A LOT. And I never did more than toss up the hosted galleries or stick a text link on my sites. My main work was building my free sites up for my OWN profit. Then I merely promoted what I wanted to, when I wanted to. No huge investment in time or anything else for any one program. Yet, I made a ton of money from them for basically no effort at all. And every real tgp owner I know did the same thing.

We built our own brands. Never spent one minute building for others. If a particular paysite is hot...it goes at the top of the page. If it cools off, I just replace it with another one. Meantime running everybodies hosted galleries.

I guess a lot of folks might do it the way you described. I have no idea why they would do that. But people go about things in different ways I suppose.

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pornmasta

Someone continues to make sales with dhdrevex ?

BlackCrayon

I would imagine the cost of billing varies on the size of the program but I get your point. Though personally I prefer programs to not offer hosted galleries. I just want a bit of raw content I can use. Affiliate programs do too much for affiliates these days...I don't even use it.

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TrashyContent

Trying to work out if your being sarcastic ? Bottom line the relationship should be symbionic... it's mutially beneficial and trust me the site owners have way more expenses to pay out !

I have heard affiliates say they would not promote a sponsor who only offers 50%... why do they feel they deserve more ? They also dont want fees (like processor fee's) split... they expect the site owners to pick them all up... is that fair ?

Yes there are loads of sites to promote... but likewise there's loads of people out there pushing traffic, and I guess the attitude of some affiliates will just push the paysites to create their own traffic hubs...

Anyways now Cross Sales are dead (or soon will be) and the cross sale business model gone, PPS will come down and hopefully things will become more realistic... if you want good honest programs that pay out, then do good honest business with them

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Jack Sparrow

Slapping on a 100dollar script wuth trade options and embedding content is a huge investment in yime and money?

If you really think it is, find a regular job.

NaughtyRob

Best post I have read in a while.

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roly

$9.37? that's fair enough, if you had a program that had 500 affiliates sending 1 sale per day that's $1.7 million per year which is a lot of money, even if your costs were 2 grand a day which i would doubt, you're still clearing a million per year. programs don't give affiliates the money out of charity, its a competitive market and if they want traffic sent they've got to pay for it.

TrashyContent

Yes only if it was as easy at that... know many programs doing 500 sales a day do ya ? Maybe the top 4 or 5 big boys, and as we know that is usually based on massive PPS... soon to stop...

As I said let's all come back down to earth, the bubble as burst boys, time to return to the real world lol...

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roly

to be honest i was guessing on numbers, i would have assumed there was quite a few programs doing 500 sales per day.

TrashyContent

Not in a month of Sunday's mate... not even close ! And as I said the ones that do big numbers are doing them off the back of unrealistic PPS !

And maybe back in 1999... I am sure when their wasnt as much saturation then some of them sites might have done some nice volume...

But in this world of tubes, torrents, saturated site numbers, stolen content, and now the death of PPS/Cross Sales... I think you will find no one will be doing that great... but at least it will be a more honest place to do business

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Shoplifter

I think that we are pretty close to a cascade effect that will ripple through the industry.

A lot of the TGP guys I know who were balling with big networks two years ago are now getting close to their margins. When these guys start going the programs that rely on this sort of traffic will go. I suppose also a lot of the hosts who cater to them will be hit as well. Adult uses a lot of capacity, and god knows how they will sell it when there is no way to monetize it.

I would say a lot of programs that rely on affiliate traffic will soon be gone, shady or not.

roly

thanks for the info

MrDeiz

i actually love hove things are going

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LickMyBalls

How about illegal girlfriend submit sites? All those users will stop sending in their ex-gf pictures and the webmasters will resort to 4chan and usenet.

fatfoo

That is unfortunate. I wonder who is next.

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Varius

Supplying content is just one aspect of it and a very small one at that, since you are correct you would normally need that kind of stuff yourself for building in-house traffic network of blogs, mini-sites, etc...

You also need to consider the hassle of dealing with affiliates versus the return.

First, you need staff to support the affiliates. You also need staff to aggressively pursue new affiliates. Often, they are one and the same when they really should be two different departments. You need to either build or spend money on an affiliate program and maintain it. You need to handle payouts.

Second, how much company time and resources are wasted with no return? It's not very uncommon that an affiliate makes a special request and never follows through. For example, Affiliate X contacts program and tells them if they can do "this, this and this" for him, he can send them a ton of traffic. The company takes time to evaluate it, decides to implement it and the affiliate ultimately sends them nothing or his idea was a flop.

Third and perhaps most important, is the profit margins are much lower than doing it yourself. You constantly have to compete and match what the competition does in regards to promotions and payouts or you lose traffic. While there are loyal affiliates, I'd wager the majority want to make the most money possible and jump from promo to promo, always drop old programs in favor of the "hot, new sites", etc...

My recommendation is:

A) Build "cores" or small teams of employees who are given the required resources as well as traffic/sale targets to reach each week. Initially, you may have to spend some time and money figuring out the right formula, but once you do, things are mostly on auto-pilot and you simple scale, scale, scale by hiring more independant "cores".

B) Work out individual deals with specific sites or affiliates, that you believe will bring a quality return. This can include pre-paid deals, just be careful not to get screwed.

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Thomas007

I agree with we haven't seen the worst yet. So far affiliates and programs has gone off the radar silently in a moderate pace.

How is it looking at the production side of our industry?

The pace might accelerate now. I would prefer to get over and done with it as fast as possible. But time is part of the equation, those going out has to spend their reserves first.

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CarlosTheGaucho

That's why it also makes no sense to go lower with the membership price if you constantly update and provide a major member value.

You need to get some sort of profit per member and if you pay a motherload of money on transaction costs, marketing costs and variable costs it's an easy math.

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CarlosTheGaucho

Try to ask Amazon to give you 50 pct. off every referred deal .. no one in the world pays 50 pct. commissions

That's why adult was and still is a gold mine for many

And that's why many so often get fucked

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