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-   -   AFF Going Out of Business - what will you do? (https://gfy.com/showthread.php?t=878050)

Paul Markham 12-28-2008 02:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JuiceMonkey (Post 15252951)
Why don't they triple it? Looks like they won't have to pay out anyways... :pimp

That's a risk affiliates take when they go for those mega pay outs in todays market. A lot of people think porn and the Internet are "get rich quick" businesses. Reality is a bitch. LOL

Kron 12-28-2008 02:13 AM

celebrate?

JTWilson 12-28-2008 02:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul Markham (Post 15252959)
Where did you learn your business skills?

It's not just about how much you're selling, it's what the profits are after the sales that's important.

OK Penthouse funded the acquisition by taking out a loan, it happens in the business world. The idea is to take the company, then the profits from the company will repay the initial loan, usually increased profits. This did not happen so all the sales were not enough, or cost too much or the guys at the top skimmed off the profits. What ever is the reason it did not work.

So a top site selling a less than good product is good for you because this is porn. About as fucked up a theory as I've heard. Unless you can totally lock the customer into buying you will lose him with that approach.

Look around you and see what happens in the real world. Sponsors spending more and more on traffic to get less and less on sales. Because the buyer is a repeat buyer and he's not taking it any more.

And if you seriously think a free Tube site should be an alternative to a paysite you're screwed. If we can't give the customer more for his $30 than what a Tube site gives him we are in the wrong. And if the customer only needs something that costs 2 cents to satisfy him, why are you charging him $30 in the first place?

The profits after the sales for AFF look to be in the $20MM+ range, so I don't see what you're getting at. Sure, their margins aren't the best. Yours are probably much better. But let's think which is better. Making $2M with 90% margins, or making $20MM with 10% margins?

Let's also not forget what we are talking about here. Sex dating sites are all misleading. There is bullshit going on with all of them. 10:1 male to female ratio with tons of bullshit pics and deceptive things. Of course retention isn't going to be the best. But here is where the trade-off lies. You can either become 100% legit and get WAY fewer initial joins with higher retention, or you can be like all the sex dating sites and do TONS of initial joins with lower retention. I'm pretty sure I'd take the latter, because I think the amount of initial joins is greater than the rebills would be with lower sales volume.

And yes, I'm totally OK with this because I think I'm making more money like this. I don't care if it's because of rebills, cross sales, high volume/low rebill, or whatever. Dollars and cents. That's all it is.

And why do you always bring up tubes? What do tubes have to do with this?

Antonio 12-28-2008 02:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TarPy (Post 15252887)
you clearly can't read... maybe you can do math...


they are over 300 million short of their SHORT TERM LIABILITIES

that's 90 days or less


AFF will still be up and running by the end of April 2009 (that's ~ 120 days from now), wanna bet on it?

Paul Markham 12-28-2008 03:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JTWilson (Post 15252978)
The profits after the sales for AFF look to be in the $20MM+ range, so I don't see what you're getting at. Sure, their margins aren't the best. Yours are probably much better. But let's think which is better. Making $2M with 90% margins, or making $20MM with 10% margins?

Let's also not forget what we are talking about here. Sex dating sites are all misleading. There is bullshit going on with all of them. 10:1 male to female ratio with tons of bullshit pics and deceptive things. Of course retention isn't going to be the best. But here is where the trade-off lies. You can either become 100% legit and get WAY fewer initial joins with higher retention, or you can be like all the sex dating sites and do TONS of initial joins with lower retention. I'm pretty sure I'd take the latter, because I think the amount of initial joins is greater than the rebills would be with lower sales volume.

And yes, I'm totally OK with this because I think I'm making more money like this. I don't care if it's because of rebills, cross sales, high volume/low rebill, or whatever. Dollars and cents. That's all it is.

And why do you always bring up tubes? What do tubes have to do with this?

Is it any wonder we are having problems in this industry with people like this in it? Still going down the same old road that does not work and not seeing the road that does.

The consumer is not an infinite market. It's a restricted and with limits. When one get's pissed off buying something that did not live up to what he was told, he tries it again and when it still does not live up to what he was told he stops buying.

If you can't link the way this business has dealt with it's consumers and Tubes you're not thinking straight. The consumer is not there for you to do with as you please.

The profits don't pay the debts, so there are no profits.

Antonio maybe you're right. Someone might pick it up for a song, they might go Chapter 11 and wipe the debts, they might sell it to themselves for $1 and keep going the same route. I agree they will still be around. But how long will the consumer keep buying and what will be the shape of the future business is a big question. How long will they carry on supporting practices that don't make a profit or a very small one?

The future is going to be tough, companies that deliver can survive, companies that don't are going to find it tough. Because people will be looking closer and closer at what they buy.

Johny Traffic 12-28-2008 03:28 AM

Quote:

After our acquisition of Various, we became aware that Various and its subsidiaries had not collected VAT from subscribers in the European Union nor had Various remitted VAT to the tax jurisdictions requiring it. We have since registered with the tax authorities of the applicable jurisdictions and have begun collecting VAT from our subscribers in the European Union and remitting it as required. We have initiated discussions with most tax authorities in the European Union jurisdictions to attempt to resolve liabilities related to Various' past failure to collect and remit VAT
I'd just like to point out this small phrase.

For the americans amoungst you who are selling to europe and not registered for vat and paying it over on your european sales. You are going to have an interesting few years.

This is going to be huge over the next couple of years with yanks back paying vat they didn't pay over.

Oh and before you declare how EU countries can't enforce it, they can, they do, they are and they are going to target people selling into the EU without paying over the VAT, this is going to be the big target for EU tax collection agencies over the next few years.

:upsidedow

Nicky 12-28-2008 03:39 AM

I'd carry on as usual.

gooddomains 12-28-2008 04:17 AM

open a tube site

Slappin Fish 12-28-2008 05:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TarPy (Post 15252678)
WHOA WHOA WHOA.... did anyone actually read that article?

The unstructured debt is all a result of how Penthouse funded the various acquisition. It really doesn't say that AFF is LOSING MONEY... it says they have a cashflow issue.


Basically, Penthouse was broke, took a huuuuuuuge loan to buy various, and fucked over their investers in the process. AFF and webcams still are throwing off cash, but not enough cash to fix how poorly Penthouse is doing, and all the debt penthouse brought on to buy various.

It's like penthouse bought a home, and now they can't pay the mortguage. Sure, they still feed themselves and have money left over, but not enough to pay off the loans they took out to move in..

Looks like by selling out, lars and andrew have condemned their employees and companies to be crushed under the mighty penthouse falling on them.

Typical poor merger... what's penthouse gain synergy wise from aff? what's aff's synergy with penthouse? poor pairing, mis-matched managment, and a desperation play to even try to buy various which was too big for their britches. And if the penthouse name would have brought substantial value to AFF, then the combination would create surplus value above it's selling price. However, no surplus value was created, and there was still all kinds of debt... bla bla bla


but for real... this bankruptcy has NOTHING to do with their pre-paid placements on Tube site, or AFF's business or business practices at all. It is basically penthouse's execs fucking up on a truly royal scale.

it also sounds like penthouse violated some loan terms which caused this long-term debt to move short term.

Thank you.

I've been saying this in the last few threads but got tired of repeating myself.

Leverage Buyouts gone wrong can fuck up just about any company. Prepaid ads are a drop in the ocean compared to servicing that Penthouse debt.

TheDA 12-28-2008 05:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johny Traffic (Post 15253017)
I'd just like to point out this small phrase.

For the americans amoungst you who are selling to europe and not registered for vat and paying it over on your european sales. You are going to have an interesting few years.

This is going to be huge over the next couple of years with yanks back paying vat they didn't pay over.

Oh and before you declare how EU countries can't enforce it, they can, they do, they are and they are going to target people selling into the EU without paying over the VAT, this is going to be the big target for EU tax collection agencies over the next few years.

:upsidedow

Exactly.

here it is again from the Various perspective :)

"Various neglected to collect taxes in the EU. The company says:

After our acquisition of Various, we became aware that Various and its subsidiaries had not collected VAT from subscribers in the European Union nor had Various remitted VAT to the tax jurisdictions requiring it. We have since registered with the tax authorities of the applicable jurisdictions and have begun collecting VAT from our subscribers in the European Union and remitting it as required. We have initiated discussions with most tax authorities in the European Union jurisdictions to attempt to resolve liabilities related to Various' past failure to collect and remit VAT, and have now resolved such prior liabilities in several jurisdictions on favorable terms, but there can be no assurance that we will resolve or reach a favorable resolution in every jurisdiction. If we are unable to reach a favorable resolution with a jurisdiction, the terms of such resolution could adversely affect our financial condition or results of operations."

camgirlshide 12-28-2008 07:42 AM

I don' promote any sponsors who allow illegal tube sites to display their ads/pay illegal tube sites.
I hope others do the same.
Furthermore, I hope any sponsor who sees an opportunity to get any currently running ad on an illegal tube site replaced with their own keeps this statement in mind.

Gnus 12-28-2008 07:56 AM

I thought this statement was funny coming from a guy that promotes SexSearch in his sig. Sexsearch supported zango.

Quote:

Originally Posted by marketsmart (Post 15251055)
it will be the ultimate fuck you to people that did business with a company that profits from theft... :2 cents:

Gary

Dirty D 12-28-2008 08:09 AM

I hope they do go public so I can short the stock big time.

Buy Naked Puts all day long :)

br4sco 12-28-2008 08:14 AM

i stoped sending traffic there after i seen their stats script messing up on certin days and i noticed no more sales then after that as well .

MaDalton 12-28-2008 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDA (Post 15253190)
Exactly.

here it is again from the Various perspective :)

"Various neglected to collect taxes in the EU. The company says:

After our acquisition of Various, we became aware that Various and its subsidiaries had not collected VAT from subscribers in the European Union nor had Various remitted VAT to the tax jurisdictions requiring it. We have since registered with the tax authorities of the applicable jurisdictions and have begun collecting VAT from our subscribers in the European Union and remitting it as required. We have initiated discussions with most tax authorities in the European Union jurisdictions to attempt to resolve liabilities related to Various' past failure to collect and remit VAT, and have now resolved such prior liabilities in several jurisdictions on favorable terms, but there can be no assurance that we will resolve or reach a favorable resolution in every jurisdiction. If we are unable to reach a favorable resolution with a jurisdiction, the terms of such resolution could adversely affect our financial condition or results of operations."

thank you, i was going to quote that too cause no one mentioned that so far. and it's a serious issue that i would say 99% of all others here do not care about either.

but if anyone wants to do some math: VAT is about 20% in most european countries

lets say 30% of their subscribers are from europe - thats about 50 million $ per year, 20% are 10 million $ they should have paid. now go back 5 years and you have 50 million $ in tax debts

SGx 12-28-2008 08:52 AM

all this vat thing is something i can't get

when a european company is selling to an american company, there s no vat, and vice verca

when a european customer buys from amazon us, then he has to pay VAT to get what he bought in his country post office (because of the customs)
but if the same customer buys a virtual service, then it would be to the selling company to pay that VAT ? why ? it should be the customer which should pay the vat, like when he is buying physical stuff...no ?

also, i m not sure it would go 5 years back, because vat stuff has been moving a lot lately, but it was not working that same way even 3 years ago

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaDalton (Post 15253393)
thank you, i was going to quote that too cause no one mentioned that so far. and it's a serious issue that i would say 99% of all others here do not care about either.

but if anyone wants to do some math: VAT is about 20% in most european countries

lets say 30% of their subscribers are from europe - thats about 50 million $ per year, 20% are 10 million $ they should have paid. now go back 5 years and you have 50 million $ in tax debts


ThumbLord 12-28-2008 09:04 AM

nothing I guess will happen, lets see in 120 days from now shall we?

Manowar 12-28-2008 09:09 AM

i dont think anything will come of this

Hazlewood 12-28-2008 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robbie (Post 15250906)
Here is a cool quote: "We have never generated significant revenue from internet advertising and may not be able to in the future."

Hello illegitimate tube sites and all torrent sites. Those pre-paid spots are coming to an end soon. Good luck on finding advertising to replace them.

there are bigger buyer in the business than aff my friend:1orglaugh

Hank_Heartland 12-28-2008 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TarPy (Post 15252678)
WHOA WHOA WHOA.... did anyone actually read that article?

The unstructured debt is all a result of how Penthouse funded the various acquisition. It really doesn't say that AFF is LOSING MONEY... it says they have a cashflow issue.


Basically, Penthouse was broke, took a huuuuuuuge loan to buy various, and fucked over their investers in the process. AFF and webcams still are throwing off cash, but not enough cash to fix how poorly Penthouse is doing, and all the debt penthouse brought on to buy various.

It's like penthouse bought a home, and now they can't pay the mortguage. Sure, they still feed themselves and have money left over, but not enough to pay off the loans they took out to move in..

Looks like by selling out, lars and andrew have condemned their employees and companies to be crushed under the mighty penthouse falling on them.

Typical poor merger... what's penthouse gain synergy wise from aff? what's aff's synergy with penthouse? poor pairing, mis-matched managment, and a desperation play to even try to buy various which was too big for their britches. And if the penthouse name would have brought substantial value to AFF, then the combination would create surplus value above it's selling price. However, no surplus value was created, and there was still all kinds of debt... bla bla bla


but for real... this bankruptcy has NOTHING to do with their pre-paid placements on Tube site, or AFF's business or business practices at all. It is basically penthouse's execs fucking up on a truly royal scale.

it also sounds like penthouse violated some loan terms which caused this long-term debt to move short term.

Dude, you spent too much time at Penn State, haha...I said the same thing in 14 words or less:1orglaugh:thumbsup

Pete-KT 12-28-2008 09:41 AM

bye bye TUBE SITES

marketsmart 12-28-2008 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gnus (Post 15253317)
I thought this statement was funny coming from a guy that promotes SexSearch in his sig. Sexsearch supported zango.



Gary

i did this for a friend.. i dont benefit from it..

however, if sexsearch still supports zango, i will remove them from my sig immediately..

Bhunter 12-28-2008 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DamageX (Post 15251064)
Throw a party.

Same i was thinking of

Qbert 12-28-2008 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DamageX (Post 15251064)
Throw a party.

A Crash & Burn Party. I like it.

Everyone bring marshmallows to toast over the glowing embers. :thumbsup

TheDA 12-28-2008 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SGx (Post 15253443)
all this vat thing is something i can't get

when a european company is selling to an american company, there s no vat, and vice verca

when a european customer buys from amazon us, then he has to pay VAT to get what he bought in his country post office (because of the customs)

That part is how it works generally I believe. In the UK, Spain and Eire at least.


Quote:

Originally Posted by SGx (Post 15253443)
but if the same customer buys a virtual service, then it would be to the selling company to pay that VAT ? why ? it should be the customer which should pay the vat, like when he is buying physical stuff...no ?

Ultimately the seller is supposed to charge the customer the VAT on the purchase, he then pays that back to the government. The seller is just acting as a collector if you like.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SGx (Post 15253443)
also, i m not sure it would go 5 years back, because vat stuff has been moving a lot lately, but it was not working that same way even 3 years ago

Not sure how far back they would go either. I know the UK used to be able to get unpaid VAT upto 7 years back at least. Maybe that has changed.

The reason I think MaDalton mentioned 5 years is because I think it was 2003 that George W. signed the US up to this agreement. :)

If US companies haven't been charging the VAT in the first place to EU customers then they could potentially lose upwards of 25% of their income made from EU sales. 25% is the current highest VAT rate of any EU member country.

johnuno11 12-28-2008 11:37 AM

Use AWE they're good converting. SEE SIG.

Paul Markham 12-28-2008 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDA (Post 15253718)
The reason I think MaDalton mentioned 5 years is because I think it was 2003 that George W. signed the US up to this agreement. :)

Don't you just love that GWB? :1orglaugh

Stephen 12-28-2008 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul Markham (Post 15252959)
If we can't give the customer more for his $30 than what a Tube site gives him we are in the wrong. And if the customer only needs something that costs 2 cents to satisfy him, why are you charging him $30 in the first place?

This is a great thread and on the bigger picture, Paul nailed it :thumbsup

TheDA 12-28-2008 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul Markham (Post 15253743)
Don't you just love that GWB? :1orglaugh

Yep. US webmasters that this applies to and are flying into the EU in 2009, I suggest you make your point-of-entry country one of the lower VAT rate countries first, maybe Cyprus, Luxembourg or Spain. It might save you a fortune :)

Johny Traffic 12-28-2008 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SGx (Post 15253443)
all this vat thing is something i can't get

when a european company is selling to an american company, there s no vat, and vice verca

when a european customer buys from amazon us, then he has to pay VAT to get what he bought in his country post office (because of the customs)
but if the same customer buys a virtual service, then it would be to the selling company to pay that VAT ? why ? it should be the customer which should pay the vat, like when he is buying physical stuff...no ?

also, i m not sure it would go 5 years back, because vat stuff has been moving a lot lately, but it was not working that same way even 3 years ago

LOL :) :upsidedow

Johny Traffic 12-28-2008 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaDalton (Post 15253393)
thank you, i was going to quote that too cause no one mentioned that so far. and it's a serious issue that i would say 99% of all others here do not care about either.

but if anyone wants to do some math: VAT is about 20% in most european countries

lets say 30% of their subscribers are from europe - thats about 50 million $ per year, 20% are 10 million $ they should have paid. now go back 5 years and you have 50 million $ in tax debts

Bet they are not the only ones :)

Im not sure it would only go back 5 years, thats a matter for debate for people much more informed than me.

As far as I can tell, it would go back as far as that country where they were "evading tax" states, because the law in that country has always stated they need to pay the VAT.

So that could be a long way back, limited maybe to the record laws of VAT, which in the UK would be 7 years back tax, not sure how long it would be in other EU countries.

A LOT of webmasters and US based countries are in for a big shock. :upsidedow

Paul Markham 12-28-2008 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stephen (Post 15253754)
This is a great thread and on the bigger picture, Paul nailed it :thumbsup

A truly crazy idea. :1orglaugh

HAPPYPEEKERS 12-28-2008 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TarPy (Post 15252786)
incorrect. The 400 million was already PAID to lars and andrew, .

sorry, you are wrong

directfiesta 12-28-2008 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happypeekers (Post 15254328)
sorry, you are wrong

looks like it ...:

Quote:

Bankrupt and racked with debt, Penthouse was acquired in 2004 by a group of investors led by entrepreneur Marc Bell. Bell's agenda for revitalizing the company evolved significantly last December when Penthouse acquired social-network behemoth Various, Inc. for $500 million in cash and stock.
http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/12/11...r-500-million/


And yes, Bell was involved in the fuckup of Ibill .... tough no mention of it on his wikipedia page

TheSenator 12-28-2008 04:00 PM

Any official word from AFF??? I need a "canned" statement to feel better.

samlowry 12-28-2008 08:22 PM

Guys, $ 130 AFF pay per initial order only, report said about 1M users, who pay last 9 months every month about $ 19. Not so bad, I think, not so bad.

MrBro 12-28-2008 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robbie (Post 15251008)
You could very well be right. But I don't remember there being a whole lot of advertising in their members area. I haven't been in there in a few years though.

One way or another though, I would have to assume that the huge amounts of money that they threw out to build up traffic numbers is going to have to stop.

I personally wish AFF good things. Worked with them a long, long time and made good money together. But if they have to stop the pre-paid spots to torrents and illegit tubes I won't shed a tear. And it will help AFF to become solvent again while at the same time helping to send torrents and illegit tubes down the....tubes.

what makes people think that sexsearch and dating gold and tons of other knock offs that will spring out of no where won't snatch up those spots. i bet the fling people are salivating. nothing will change on tubes. they aren't going anywhere.

MrBro 12-28-2008 08:50 PM

paul markam has alzheimers. either that or he's just really clueless.

Robbie 12-28-2008 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBro (Post 15255350)
what makes people think that sexsearch and dating gold and tons of other knock offs that will spring out of no where won't snatch up those spots. i bet the fling people are salivating. nothing will change on tubes. they aren't going anywhere.

My only thought would be that it's played out. Maybe they will step up. But none of those companies have ever offered prepaid spots at the same money as aff was. So even if they do step in they won't pay the money that those sites are used to. And that's bad news for us tgp guys too, we're the ones who cut prepaid spots in the first place with sponsors long before torrent sites even existed. A lot of us don't have much traffic anymore (it's all at the illegit tube sites), but the tiny handful that still do are gonna feel the pinch too.

Overload 12-28-2008 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mineistaken (Post 15251123)
good news, every shady sponsor using zango and so on should go down.

DANGO ZANGO! right to the money! anyone involved with ZANGO
shud be struck by lightning! :thumbsup


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