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PS: 1-((1-.195)*(1-.195)) = 36% seriously special ed. say it with me now .... we dont add percents |
by the way are you even READING my posts? I just read what you seem to think I'm saying and its so far off the mark... just wow.
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Just lost a hand on Full Tilt with AK vs A6 buddy had 4 6's by the river lol..
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I hate big slick. Costs me more money than any other hand probably, because it's very very difficult to lay it down preflop or on the first post flop bet. You end up calling, calling, folding. Sucks.
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19.5 x 2 = 39%, small discount, and SURPRISE, you are looking at about 36%, or about the error rate of a single card in the deck. For the puposes of figuring out the chance that, post flop, you will get a card it is pretty darn functional. No, you can't straight add it and get a perfect answer, that was never the point. But your odds don't stay at 19.5% if you have more than one chance to draw, and that is my point. |
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Things that make you go hmmmmmmmm |
No More Talk
Money/mouth anyone?
So who's hosting the cash games in LA next week so we can see who can back up all his talk? |
Not sure why you would move all in when he raised you if he hasn't been playing bad cards all night. Seems to me like he was giving you a pretty clear indication that he had at least something. Sure he got lucky, but to move all in on a pair of 9's probably wasn't the smartest move you have ever made.
I think you are wrong to criticize this guy the way you did because when it comes down to it, poker is only a thinking mans game when you are playing with people who think about it. When you play against people who are random I find that more often than not you are going to get over confident and get screwed like you did. That's my two cents anyways. |
One more thing...just wondering why all the math that is happening right now is based on this being a heads up game. Were there not more people at the table?
I'm not going to pretend that I am a poker wiz or anything, but poker is much more than a numbers game. There is a human element involved here too, so you can crunch all the numbers you want but when it comes down to it I think that when your raise is doubled and you only have a pair of 9s pre flop, you should either call, fold, or raise but not go all in. I just don't see that as being a very smart decision, nor do I think it is a good stradegy. (Unless of course we are talking tournament style and this is heads up) |
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b) I understand the odds change for every card flipped. YOU are the one who started this thread by making the example simpler with a flat % for every card. I simply used the model you started with. I disclaimed in my first post that I know this wasn't really how it worked (assuming the odds were fixed), and in my math post I actually showed an example of the odd changing w\ every card played. The fact that you didn't actually read what I wronte is not my fault. c) Irregardless of what's 'practical' I was trying to point out how the actual odds are correctly calculated. No matter how you spin it you're wrong in this sense. You CANNOT add %'s. Yes it may work out close to the actual answer occasionally, but it can also be fairly far off the mark as well using a method like that (as in the original example where it was 15% off). |
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RawAlex, you can keep fighting this off, but the fact is your method to a staggeringly incorrect conclusion re pp v overpair. That alone should tell you that you need to reconsider your method. |
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Against a proven maniac pushing all in with 99 is perfectly legit and maybe necessary. He *might* think twice before raising your bb with 5-9 os |
If you think the way to win at poker is to only play hands where you're damn sure you're ahead, you're going to get taken by any aggressive player who sits across from you. Your goal is to get as many chips in the pot as you can when you have the odds in your favor, not wait for a sure thing that very very very rarely comes along. You look for your spots and you take them.
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Most people are not able to do long calculations in their head, which is the reason why most poker players memorize odds charts and positional odds so they don't have to calculate it out.
in the original example as discussed, I think we all agreed that it was a coin flip, and further, it was VERY likely (super high percentage) at that least one overcard would come in the five cards, because he pushed all in pre-flop. In fact, it is less than 10% chance that an overcard doesn't come, which is a low enough number to say "very likely". With the other player holding two overcards, the chance that one of those overcards come is significant, especially when you consider 5 cards have to be turned. NOTHING IS CERTAIN, but the odds are pretty high. The hand was 55 - 45 for the 9's, but with a less than 10% chance of improving the hand and a fair number of hands that would be better starting hands. So the player with 9-9 is sitting hoping for nothing to happen, while the player with Q-T has 6 direct outs plus potential for straights and even flushes when you are sitting pre-flop. The all in might have been a better call after the flop if you saw 3 under cards. There was no reason to go all in pre-flop, the odds don't support it (especially when you don't know the other player's hand... he could have easily been outmanned before the first card even turned, playing a hand that is unlikely to get much better). |
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you're making it way too complicated. The only thing you have to know is that a pp is odds favorite over two overcards. Who gives a shit what the odds are that AN overcard will come? Only two out of five will help him. Against a maniac, 99 is a monster and you take his chips more often than not, and that's all you need to know to play that hand correctly. What you DON'T want to be doing is calling big bets after the flop with undercards.
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lol... that sucks... these baller's always lose their money in the end... you have to grind it from them. Sometimes thinking it's a sure thing is when you should fold.
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Why do people feel like they just HAVE to post in a thread when it's totally obvious they have no fucking clue what they're talking about? oh yeah.. post count. |
dig, again, go back and read the opening of the dicussion... limp limp 9-9 raises, Q-T raises over him, and then 9-9 goes all in.
The mistake for me is that last part. 9-9 should have called and got a flop. While we haven't seen the cards, I suspect that one of the flop cards was an overcard, which would have made the 9-9s weak. Technically, you are also correct, don't get into it with a wildman. If it is a money table, let it go around a couple of times and walk away with your money and your sanity. |
101 poker addict
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102 poker eggspurts
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Sounds to me like someone is a little confused. :helpme |
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Alex, calling with 99 to see the flop isn't a bad play, what I'm saying is pushing with it against a maniac isn't a mistake. It's a very reasonable play. You might get caught every now and then but overall it's a winner. It slows him down, and you're going to be the favorite most of the time. |
I'm going to take a break from poker.. Running fucking horrible.. I think a month should do.. Tonight I go play in a $100+50 satellite, make final table down to 4 players. UTG moves allin.. He's done it 5-6 times in a row just picking up the blinds. Im in BB and it comes to me. I look down at AQ of spade. I'm not going to fold that it's now or never right, the blinds are going up every ten minutes now. So we're about even in chips, I call him. He turns over 67d. Flop comes I spike ace. He has shit. Turn 7, river 7.. I'm not kidding you. It's been a bad month poker wise. My bank roll is pretty much gone.. To make things worse porn sales are sucking balls in a big way too.
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I feel your pain. In online poker, it's like someone flips a switch and all of a sudden you can't win a hand no matter what your cards are. I just don't trust it.
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Once I learned how to play it correctly in both limit and no-limit and cash game and tournament situations it has become on of my most profitable hands. You may know more than the average casual poker player dig, but you don't know nearly as much as you think you do. I see statements that you make and the attitude that goes along with them as signs of where you're at in your game. I say this because I've seen it dozens of times in other players on poker bbs's. Here's some good information on that subject (although it was written about tournament players I still think it is relevant) http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...4242545&page=1 |
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ok expert, let's go lock up 1k on FT right now, since you're such an infallible pro. Let's see if you can take it from me.
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When your argument can no longer stand on it's merits, challenge the opposition to a heads-up match. :1orglaugh:1orglaugh Man, you've been on tilt waaaaay too long. You need a break brah. |
You talk too much. Quickest way to end it is to put money on the table. You're a better player than me right? Easy money for you. Come and get it.
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You're also missing the point, even if we played heads up and you beat me, took every cent I had and I went into hock for more and you took that too.....it still doesn't make pushing all-in preflop with pocket nines in a cash game a good move. I mean c'mon man, you're practically challenging me to a duel or a fist fight because you can't win the argument. You're acting like "an over-aggressive 12 year old" |
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Do you understand now? |
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I personally think the cash level you play at, along with your "wsop and wpt cards" are because you're a high income person with an expensive hobby, not because you're a great player. Playing heads up would be stupid. So we get it all in with KK vs JJ, or AA vs QQ, or AKs vs TT....and how does that prove who the better player is? If I suck out on you and take your whole grand does that mean that I'm right and you're wrong about how to play the pocket 9's in this scenario? If you flop top set and I flop middle set and we get it all in, does that make me a fish who doesn't know what he's talking about? Get over yourself man. You can't counter my arguments on their merit, or by using math or logic or any type of sound game theory to prove you're right, so you have to challenge me to "step outside" to settle it. Pffffttt....whatever dude. |
Man this is almost like being at the Poker table.... :P
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