You are all donkeys. :P

You should watch your play more than the play of others. If you played weak before that guy might just have thought you were bluffing him ...

He had zero fold equity. You don't have fold equity against donkeys.

Yes he had the best hand, but by a very very small margin. You can't push all-in on a coin flip and then be upset when the coin lands on tails.

Your statement about waiting for a straight flush is pretty ridiculous.

Rule 1 for no-limit cash games, DON'T GO BROKE WITH ONE PAIR.
The exceptions to that rule are if you have AA or KK and can get a majority of the money in before the flop.

You don't have to wait for a monster hand, or even aces, but you'll have plenty of opportunites with hands that are two-pair or better to make your money.

You seem to be on permanent tilt from online play, you should take a break man.

you went all-in into a re-raiser(who's unlikely to fold) with at best a coin flip, at worse being dominated by a bigger pair

he called 2:1 pot odds with a bad hand...

I think you deserve each other...

I know, I was tilting lastnight when I got home and jumped online.. This was a live game.. Really I was just trying to slow this guy down. Everybody was walking away from the table because he was grabbing everybody. No matter what you raised he would come over top, preflop and on the flop with total garbage and was catching. Cracking big hands with 5-7 off making 2 pair.. Next time I will wait for a better spot.

Still a bad call with his hand preflop.

OP said he was in middle position, so there should be 2-3 limpers in front of him..UTG, UTG+1 and maybe UTG+2.

The position of the min re-raiser doesn't really matter at this point, position is eliminated once he decides to go all-in. However it does affect his decision on how he plays his hand after the flop, but the way it's written comes off as if villain is in cutoff or on the button.

He's pretty much given all the information he can about his stack which is $230...that's the effective stack unless someone is limping in with less than that, and I highly doubt it.

Image is important...but against a calling station / loose maniac / donkey, these people don't care what your image is.
You can dust off the cobwebs from your chips in order to raise, and they will still call.

Now regarding the short stack, this is why I don't play with less than a full buy-in. With only 46 blinds, I'm not raising over 10% of my stack with 9's, you're already at a commitment threshold and you're looking to get your money into the middle. However, if you're pushing preflop with 9's, in most cases, not all cases, but most, you're only getting called by hands that have you beat, or are at worst flipping with you...which was the case here.

With only 46 blinds, and raising over 10% of your stack, you're effectively cutting down your implied odds to even hit a set here, you're not maximizing your potential win if you hit and stack someone.

However, the guy got himself into trouble by playing the hand the way he did. I'm not one for racing preflop, I don't have to, I know how to play flops, turns and rivers profitably.

As far as big hands like Aces and Kings, with aces, I'm willing to race preflop with everything I own. But Kings, I cap it at 100 blinds.

Now I use the word "race" liberally here. It's not really a race, but when you allow people to see 5 cards, there is a better chance of them winning.

But the further I go down in the pocket pair category, the less willing I am to race pre with them. Queens and Jacks, max about 60 blinds pre. 10's for me don't even really come into the equation. Jacks suck, 10's suck even more.

What most recreational poker players don't even comprehend is the value of hands pre, on the flop, turn, then river.

Aces yeah they are a sweet hand, but you have to load them heavy up front trying to get as much money in the middle pre and on the flop, because like all pairs, if they have not improved on the flop, they begin to lose more and more value on the turn, and river.

I prefer to play deep stack games. When I play live, my choices are Binions or Golden Nugget, where the buy-in is uncapped...where you can play real "no limit."

Some lucky tourist sits down with $200, runs it into $600, and I can sit down and buy-in a $1$2 game and cover him, and there's roughly $5,000-$30,000 on the table.

That way I can punish people who like to play the "all-in" game.

Good discussion going.. I'm learning stuff.. Only been playing about 8 months now and about even money wise.. My best month was 3k winnings. I win more money playing mtt then cash game.. I'm a tight player but if I think I have the best hand I'm willing to move allin. Next time I think I would call his fucking re-raise and hopefully flop a set then move in if he comes out betting...

Don't listen to these fuckers. If you know the guy is a bomb who is likely to put all his chips with any kind of bullshit you stand up to him and play him hard, and you take his chips. The alternative is to let him run all over you. You might as well just sit down, give him all your chips and leave if you're going to do that. I have a win for 30k at the Bellagio to my name and a WPT and WSOP card in my pocket right now. I'm guessing the nellies who want to lay down a decent pp against a guy who plays like an over-aggressive 12 yr. old can't say the same.

Was he online?

going all in with 99 preflop trying to take a wild man off his hand was not a good move. But maybe your only move.

'

actually, in many ways you do, although it is a very rough calculation and not precise, it is pretty good for general play.

Effectively, when the player holds QT, there are 6 card that can help him. 52 card - 2 in your hand and 2 in the other guys hand means 48 cards. 6 in 48 chance to get any one card he needs. 12.5%, round it to 13% chance that any single card turned is a good card.

But now, he gets to turn 5 cards. Each of those cards has the same chance (actually, a slightly increasing chance because with every card flipped the remaining number of cards drop... so post-flop, there is 6 in 45 chance (13.3% - which is why I rounded the other one up to 13 to make it easier to do the math, good when you are sitting at the table and don't have a calculator handy!).

Each of the 5 cards has about a 13% chance of being the card he wants, so you have 5 * 13% chance. Effectively, the odds are not 65%, but the odds are quite high that any one of those 5 cards would be well over 50% right out the gate.

The flop comes, he doesn't get any of his cards, and now there are 45 cards left, 6 outs, and 2 cards to go - 26% chance that he sees a card he needs. Flip one more, those odds go to about 13.5%.

Think about it another way. If you are in a 1 in a million lottery and you buy two tickets, your single ticket odds didn't improve but overall you now have effectively 2 in 1 million odds. If you bought all 1 million tickets, you would have a 1 in 1 chance. It's pretty linear.

The guy got lucky.. simply as that

Not really. With pocket 9s, there is a less than 10% chance that an overcard DOESN'T come by the river. With the opponent holding 2 overcards, he has a 2 in 5 chance that the overcard that comes more than 90% of the time one that he needs. It's pretty much like shooting fish in a barrel at that point.

It's like this man, big bets and big pots are for big hands.
99 is not a big hand.

If you know the guy is going to pay you off when you get a big hand, why wouldn't you wait for one?

I also didn't say that he should have "been a nellie" laid down 99 before the flop, but he sure as hell didn't have to go all-in right there. All-in preflop is for "over aggressive 12 year olds" as you put it. (Unless you have AA or KK)
Real poker players make their money post-flop.

QFMFT:2 cents:

People who play cash games like they're tournaments are what we real poker players eat for dinner.

Fish...it does a body good.

You keep playing your donkaments, pushing all-in with pocket 9's, because you have to due to the ever increasing blind structure. But make it a habit of playing that way in a cash game, you won't last long.

Dude relax. We all bow down to you mighty Poker wisdom ok?

Like I said I was representing a big hand in the chance the guy would fold but I picked the wrong guy who was willing to race with a shitty hand like q-10. Com'om most poker players I know would fold in his spot. Q10 for $200? Come on now. He should have folded.

Im mean I show strength preflop when I enter the pot, how many players you know that will come back at you with q-10??

Almost as many as will go all in preflop with a 9-9.

I was just making a play to try and take the pot there. The hand prior I saw him raise with alot of crap and knew he was just trying to steal every hand... I made a bad play I admit that but still do you agree with his call? Am I wrong that a better player would have folded there with his hand?

Even though I hate your push, I like your push better than his call.

You do know the gap theory right?

It takes a better hand to call with than to raise with.

I play 6-max online for the most part, and sometimes I'm pretty much aggressive retarded. People have asked me on many occasions, "how can you raise with that hand?"

My answer. "I can raise with any two cards, I just can't call with them."

He got lucky for sure, but at the same time you played into his game. If he hadn't been playing loose all night you maybe wouldn't have gone back over the top with 99:2 cents:

His hand was as good as yours, and every player's measurement of a good hand is different. His case is particular because he had been playings (and apparently showing) crap hole cards and teasing you with them. If I am in his place, calling may not be so hard because after a series of junk winners, a reasonable hand isn't a bad thing.

After all, the reality is that there would only be a few things he could face that would be so terrible pre-flop: A-A, A-K, A-Q, K-K, K-Q, or Q-Q. Below that, it starts getting much closer to a crap shoot, especially if you hand isn't paired.

Is he lucky you didn't have one of those 6 hands? Sure. But the reality is you went all in with a hand not knowing if he had A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, or T-T on top of you. You took the risk in a place where a call would have gotten you a flop and allowed you to maybe learn a little more about his hand.

allin preflop its a bad move no matter what you're holding.

rawalex, QT is less than 50% to win. The underpair is the favorite by several percentage points. You need to go back to poker school if you think the overcards are 65% to win.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAA!!!

thanks, that's a good one.

What is the easiest place to learn all of those odds?

Mitch

5 * 13% is not the correct calculation to figure out the % chance of him winning given that scenario.

.87 * .87 * .87 * .87 * .87 = the correct % chance of him winning w\ pocket 9's under the assumption that the 13% remains fixed.

By your logic if he drew 10 cards he'd have over 100% chance of winning which obviously isn't the case.


Like I said, methinks you need a stats review ;)

These threads always get more entertaining when the guys who live in Vegas show up and start calling each other names :1orglaugh

Oh and also I didn't check the 13% I'm just using your numbers for lazieness sake.

If by several you mean 4 then you're right.

Two black nines versus QT of hearts

The 9's wins 51.69% of the time
The QT wins 47.95% of the time

They tie 0.37% of the time.

If you pushed all in, flipped over your nines and showed them, your opponent would be getting the best of it to call with his hand, when you consider the money already in the pot.

The problem with a hand like 99 preflop is that if your push does get called, you're a coinflip at best, and you're totally dominated by an overpair at worst.

Against your typical bad player you're going to have several opportunities to get your money in as a 2 to 1 favorite or better, yet you seem convinced that risking your whole stack on a coinflip and giving your opponent the right price to call is "punishing him"

You're way off on the math.
You're combining two different statistics in a way that they weren't meant to be combined.

If you hold any two random cards your odds of pairing one by the river is roughly 50 percent. The reason the overcards win less than 50% of the time is because making that one pair doesn't always mean you finish with the best hand.

Also, if you have a 25% chance twice, that doesn't mean you have a 50% chance of making the hand. (i.e. flopping a flush draw)
You can't just add up percentages like that. That's not the way math works.

Eggggggggggggggggggzactly

Actually, because of the law of odds, every time you add more cards to turn over, the more chance it has to come. There is a point where it becomes MORE likely that he will get one of his cards than not.

Here, while it isn't complete, this is one of those wikipedia things that actually isn't terrible:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability_(Texas_hold_'em)

Real key is the after the flop numbers, chance of getting a pair:

Either pair 6 0.1277 6.83 : 1 0.1304 6.67 : 1 0.2414 3.14 : 1

6 outs, 12.77 chance on the turn, 13.04% chance on the river, and 24.14% chance overall that it comes on either. As I said before, my math is "rounding" to prove a point, but the effect is the same.

Dig420, going all in pre-flop turns almost every hand into a statistical nightmare. Everyone thinks "Damn, I got pocket aces, let's fuck these guys over" and the guy next to them goes all in with them, turns over a Q-J suited and ends up with a flush, flushing you off the table.

Considering the cards you claim to carry, you don't seem to be very observant. The very best players in the world don't go all in very often preflop, but rather usually right after the flop or after the turn. Those that do go all in pre-flop tend to be short stackers with few options.

I am sure there are more than a couple of people like you who all in pre-flop, but you don't see them on the million dollar tables very often.

As for the odds, a spread of less than 5 or 6 percent is pretty much coin toss range, certainly not all in territory, especially not pre-flop. Consider you own experience. You have pocket 9s and you call your way to a flop. The flop comes T-Q-A. Would you care to explain any circumstance under which you would go all in at that point?

Remember, with 9's the chance of at least one overcard coming in the deal is pretty high... 20 out of 48 cards, essentially a near certainty that one of the overcards comes. Now, pre-flop all in might push a more timid player out of a pot, but betting against a mega-loose player, you are almost certain to get called, and almost certain to be sitting with a hand that is at best a few percentage points over the odds.

Re-read the original post. limp, limp, our guy raises, the over guy raises over him. At that point, he could have called and got a flop and had a better idea where he stood. The price of information was lower than the price of the all in.

It's all in the numbers, leave your balls at home.

Again, you can't add the flop, turn, and river percentages together and think that those are the odds.
That's not the way math works.

Umm all I said is you don't multiply 13% by 5 to get the % of winning the hand that's not how you combine %'s mathematically. Yes I'm aware the % changes a small amount every hand and that you were rounding, it has nothing to do with what I said.

Did you read the part where I said:

AND


My point had nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that you used 13% for your base point, my point was that you don't use 5 * 13% to figure out the correct odds using that 13%.

Having 2 50% chances doesn't mean 50% + 50% = 100% chance, just like having 5 13% chances doesn't mean 13% + 13% + 13% + 13% + 13% = 65%.

Once again, you need a statistics review. Like snake said you're combining numbers in a way that you can't do mathematically.

Dude, man, you really need to go back to school.

You don't add it directly (and I made that clear) but it is pretty close and good enough for mathing out problems on a poker table. What you are mistaking I think is the odds from a static point and the odds of any single card. Consider: In our test case, there is a 13% (round number) chance that the card that comes up next is a Q or T. Now, with 5 shots at 13%, do you think that the odds that any one of those cards being a Q or T is higher than if only a single card was turned?

You don't beleive me?

Set up this experiement, and do it a bunch of times.

Take a deck, extract 2 9s. Extract a Q-T. Shuffle up the rest of the cards, and do a regulation deal to 5 cards. Record the number of times that (a) the Q-T gets paired up, and (b) the number of times an overcard (past the 9s) comes.

Do it 20 times. Record your answers.

Then, do the same thing, but deal it out to 8 cards. Do it 20 times, record your answers.

Actually, incorrect. If you have a 50% chance now, and you turn 1 card and it doesn't come, the next one would be 100%, because a 50% chance would imply 1 out or 2. If there is a lottery with only 2 tickets and you hold both, you have a 50% chance that either ticket wins... or a 100% chance overall.

Think!

No it's not dude.

If you flop a flush draw, you have a 25% (roughly) chance of making your flush on the next card.
Using your "good enough for the table" math, that would mean I have a 50% chance of making a flush by the time the hand is over.

In reality you only have a 35% chance of making the flush by the river. If I used your math I would think I'm even money to make my hand and would go all in every time I flopped a flush draw, when in reality I'm a 2 to 1 underdog.

*sigh* that's only in exhastive circumstances, which these aren't. You said yourself the 13% is only a rounded figure and we're only using it.

Use coins for the 50% example what are the odds of me not flipping tails on consecutive throws.

If I get 1 throw it's 50%
2 throws? 25%
3 throws? 12.5%

You calculate this by -multiplying- the %'s not by adding them.

(50%)^(number of throws)=the odd of consectively not throwing tails. Same thing with not drawing the wrong card.


(1-13%) * (1-13.5%) * (1-14%) *(1-14.5%) * (1-15%) = the correct odds

(assuming for simplicity sake the odd change .5% per card drawn)

We just simplified it to

(1-.13)^5 = the odds winning pocket 9's

You never -add- %'s. I really don't know how much more clear I can be.


Are you really this dense or just arguing for the sake of arguement?

Thank you.

Quoted for troof

Again, it is a curve, but you need to back up further to understand why for the purposes of calculating it out is is just as easy to straight line it as it is to go all over the road.

Flush draw. 19.15% chance that a needed card comes up. Combined on turn and river is about 35%. Not straight line % + %, but certainly not 19.15% either. GigoloMason is trying to suggest that you have a 19.15% chance and that is it, because that is the chance that any single card is a card you need. That just isn't the case.

GigoloMason, coin tosses are not a good example because there are no "eliminating" odd. The odds reset every time and remain the same on every toss no matter what happened in the previous toss. Cards are both eliminating and compounding because you get multiple shots to acheive your goal. Take your coin flip. There is a 50-50 chance that either side comes up, true enough. But if you flip it twice, the chance that you get heads both times is only about 25% (possible outcomes are HH HT TH TT). Flip it a third time, and the chance that you get heads 3 times in a row is even lower (HHH HHT HTH HTT THT TTH TTT). 14% chance? By the 5th flip, the chance that you didn't flip a tail somewhere in the 5 is very low indeed.

Yes, the chance of any single flip being a head or a tail is 50-50. But cards isn't a single flip but a series of flips (5 to be precise), which means that the likelihood from the start that something may happen is high, and gets smaller as more and more of those opportunies are used up (although there is a small increase as each non-useful card it revealed).

I don't pretend for an instant that my numbers are exact or precise, but they do allow you to pretty quicky figure out where you stand.