Florida Real Estate - Is it crapping out?

[David - PG]

Just saw this on Craigs list, did many other investors get hurt. Or is this only a local phenomenon in Florida? I read other articles NY e.g. is still strong. So are many other states supposedly.

http://fortmyers.craigslist.org/rfs/340441980.html

[Verbal]

Florida certainly wasn't what it was last year, but I don't think that ad is an indication of general Florida Real Estate trends. All and all, I've always believed Florida is WAY under-valued as far as home prices ... Coastal cities that is.

lol, that being said, 1/2 a million for that condo still seems expensive.

[fallenmuffin]

In southwest florida (fort myers, naples, etc) there are more sellers then buyers right now. Real estates gone down 20% in some areas lol

[CWeb]

If crapping out can be compared to fucked - in that case, it's crapping out

Not one hope in hell of selling a 1900 sq ft condo for the orginal fantasy price of $799K and will prob be lucky to move it at $250K.

There have been *many* properties sold at pre-construction prices and the potential buyers are sliding bigtime on completing even these deals. The properties are not even worth the pre-construction price, but, hell - they never were in the first place.

Na.. it's not just Flordia....

Prices still going down, inventory still going up
Total housing inventory jumped 10.4% to 4.2 million at the end of April, which translates to an 8.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 7.4-month supply in March."

California notices of default hits 10-year high
Across California, meanwhile, the number of notices of default - issued when a homeowner is late on mortgage payments, and the first step toward foreclosure - have hit the highest level in almost 10 years, according to DataQuick, a San Diego-based real estate information service. And foreclosures statewide increased more than 800 percent from the first quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year.

PS On second thoughts - I would not even pay $150K for that property.

[sweetcuties]

Another one of the high priced areas

[CWeb]

Originally Posted by fallenmuffin

In southwest florida (fort myers, naples, etc) there are more sellers then buyers right now. Real estates gone down 20% in some areas lol

Very nice area FM! Assuming it's still as nice when I was there last.

[Zayne E.]

I posted this before, I think.

The market in SW Florida is insane. Prices rise due to supply and demand and there is still no shortage of places to build down here. As quickly as swampland dries up, they build and there's no shortage of swampland drying up.

Here's a personal example of how the market down here simply makes no sense...at the end of 2003 I was lease-optioning a home where I could have gotten the home for $210k. When I returned to Florida after a stint in Charlotte followed by 18 months in Houston, that same exact house -- the very one -- was on the market for $690k -- in just 27 months. Explain that one to me when there are literally thousands of vacant lots under construction for the low to mid 200's.

When the market began to tank throughout last year the same neighborhood...2 identical houses...one was on the market for $489k and the other for $390k with absolutely no discernable differences between the houses...same street...same exact model with no differences in upgrades. Essentially the SAME HOUSE.

Present example...I am leasing a condo now that I know the owner had built for $220k-ish just last year. Yet, it was on the market before I leased it for $589k Now the same unit is available from between $249k and $359k.

Sellers are in la-la land over what their homes are really worth and NOTHING is selling right now. I would say 80% of the units here have for sale signs in front of them and everyone is speculating on a killing and really don't seem to be interested in actually selling.

[HighSociety]

lots of builers have went under this year and tons of unfinished house all over the place. Weeds are 7 feet tall in the yards with no grass , model homes have been sold and people all living in them now, bring some sod

[JFK]

Looked online yesterday at listings ,the prices have not decreased as much in the Ft Lauderdale,Hollywood areas.Which is too bad because thats where I want to buy. I will be going down tomorrow, checking it out in person

[David - PG]

Originally Posted by Zayne E.

Sellers are in la-la land over what their homes are really worth and NOTHING is selling right now. I would say 80% of the units here have for sale signs in front of them and everyone is speculating on a killing and really don't seem to be interested in actually selling.

Thing is. What if you want to buy? Is there any good historic rule of thumb to "spot" a bottom in a housing price decline? I know it's hard to catch a falling knife but there must be precedences for a popped housing bubble before (1982, 1991). There must be a way to take advantage of forced selling as a buyer.

[Ross]

I'm looking to buy a house in Florida next summer. I noticed some I had an eye on the last couple months have dropped tens of thousands off the price. Now is the time to get your villas in Florida for rental income.

[Zayne E.]

Originally Posted by David - PG

Thing is. What if you want to buy? Is there any good historic rule of thumb to "spot" a bottom in a housing price decline? I know it's hard to catch a falling knife but there must be precedences for a popped housing bubble before (1982, 1991). There must be a way to take advantage of forced selling as a buyer.

In the case of this market I would look for desperate sellers. Some of them have got to be getting killed with multiple mortgages to pay when the realization set in that they would not be able to turn over the units they built on spec. I know the good folks I am leasing from were hurting real bad by the time I leased this place. I do believe they converted all their spec properties to rentals, foregoing the notion of being able to flip their units for bit profits.

To answer your question I will say this instead...I live here, I love it here...I will not buy here no matter what in the next 2 years. I figure it's going to take that long to weed out the speculators and bring the market back to its sensibilities. Then I think the possibility of a great deal exists. And, really, for a rental market it's not bad at all. You can get a LOT of house for a reasonable rate on a year-round lease...but now is the time to do it -- the snowbirds just left last month and rental deals are flying!

[Forest]

Originally Posted by JFK

Looked online yesterday at listings ,the prices have not decreased as much in the Ft Lauderdale,Hollywood areas.Which is too bad because thats where I want to buy. I will be going down tomorrow, checking it out in person

The house next door to mine is for sale. 260K its a small 2/1 in the front and even smaller 2/1 in the back

but i dont think u want to live in my neighborhood LOL

While prices have not dropped down here dramtically yet there is a TON of inventory on the market so the buyers have a lot of negotiation room in that price.

Julius if you want a kick ass real estate agent for the hollywood ftl area LMK Mine rocks!

See you ate the red neck

[Forest]

Originally Posted by Ross

Now is the time to get your villas in Florida for rental income.

you had bett have alot of money behind u to pay that mortgage. With excess inventory on the market down here alot of owners are now turning to renting the properties because they cant get their asking price on the sale so now there is a ton of rentals on the market as well

[GooSearch]

florida huh..tampa bay area.. north of clearwater

bought home for 86k
had home appraised 6 months ago at 155k
had home appraised 2 weeks ago 135k

WTF!!!!

[tranza]

Real estate market in the US as a whole will collapse pretty soon.... It's a fact.

[TubeTitans_SusieQ]

yea prices were at an all time high and it sucks now because a lot of builders invested and are now in pain because they cant sell what they bought for. Thats why one of the companies I worked for went under.they bought and then couldn't sell for more after the market price dropped. My buddy is a first time home buyer and he bought his home for 240K brand new and now since his mortgage is too high , the bank is settling for him to sell it for 160k instead of foreclosure. That a whale of a difference.

[Randyyy]

yup, FL real estate has gone to shit, you can't sell ANYTHING

[Wizzo]

Florida's market isn't nearly as bad as alot of other places in the US right now...

[JFK]

Originally Posted by Forest

The house next door to mine is for sale. 260K its a small 2/1 in the front and even smaller 2/1 in the back

but i dont think u want to live in my neighborhood LOL

While prices have not dropped down here dramtically yet there is a TON of inventory on the market so the buyers have a lot of negotiation room in that price.

Julius if you want a kick ass real estate agent for the hollywood ftl area LMK Mine rocks!

See you ate the red neck

BUT, is she cute ?

[fallenmuffin]

Hey Zayne E., are you around Charlotte, County?

[Forest]

Originally Posted by JFK

BUT, is she cute ?

yeah in a short milf sorta way LOL

ahh that just gave me a great idea for a porn site

[Barefootsies]

Originally Posted by GooSearch

florida huh..tampa bay area.. north of clearwater

bought home for 86k
had home appraised 6 months ago at 155k
had home appraised 2 weeks ago 135k

WTF!!!!

[Barefootsies]

Originally Posted by tranza

Real estate market in the US as a whole will collapse pretty soon.... It's a fact.

Not according to some...

[Forest]

Originally Posted by GooSearch

florida huh..tampa bay area.. north of clearwater

bought home for 86k
had home appraised 6 months ago at 155k
had home appraised 2 weeks ago 135k

WTF!!!!

yep when people in your area are bailing on their homes and selling for whatever they can get for them it brings the price of the entire neighbohood down.

Thats one reason im glad i bought where i did and at the price i did.

[Zayne E.]

Originally Posted by fallenmuffin

Hey Zayne E., are you around Charlotte, County?

South in Lee County. Estero, to be exact...it's between Naples and Ft. Myers.

[pornguy]

If that were on south beach or Brickel, then it would be worth the money, but it's not. Now, if that golf course is one of the MASTERS then yes it is worth the cash, as the pro tours hit those courses, and it can be rented for a few thousand for a weekend.

[Peaches]

My neighbors have a house in Naples (their full time house) and several pieces of commercial real estate down there. They said their house value is crapping out but their commercial ventures are going great and they are buying more.

All the FL retirees are moving to my neck of the woods - my house has more than doubled in value in 6 years and land is appreciating even more. YAY! Now I just need to decide when to start selling and move further out ;)

[Joe Harlot]

I think Naples and Fort Myers and a lot of the areas where they built loads of condos are crapping out. I think they have overdevlope and a lot of people have bought second homes as investments and there is a correction going on.
good time to buy!

[Zayne E.]

Originally Posted by Joe Harlot

I think Naples and Fort Myers and a lot of the areas where they built loads of condos are crapping out. I think they have overdevlope and a lot of people have bought second homes as investments and there is a correction going on.
good time to buy!

Good time to buy here? Not from my perspective. Once the sellers wake up and realize they are priced 90% over actual value it will be a great time to buy...but for now no one is buying because there isn't a deal to be found. Just speculators asking for the moon and not willing to budge in the face of reality.