Quote:
Originally Posted by David - PG
Thing is. What if you want to buy? Is there any good historic rule of thumb to "spot" a bottom in a housing price decline? I know it's hard to catch a falling knife but there must be precedences for a popped housing bubble before (1982, 1991). There must be a way to take advantage of forced selling as a buyer.
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In the case of this market I would look for desperate sellers. Some of them have got to be getting killed with multiple mortgages to pay when the realization set in that they would not be able to turn over the units they built on spec. I know the good folks I am leasing from were hurting real bad by the time I leased this place. I do believe they converted all their spec properties to rentals, foregoing the notion of being able to flip their units for bit profits.
To answer your question I will say this instead...I live here, I love it here...I will not buy here no matter what in the next 2 years. I figure it's going to take that long to weed out the speculators and bring the market back to its sensibilities. Then I think the possibility of a great deal exists. And, really, for a rental market it's not bad at all. You can get a LOT of house for a reasonable rate on a year-round lease...but now is the time to do it -- the snowbirds just left last month and rental deals are flying!