BIZ THREAD: Where do YOU see the online adult industry IN 5-10 YEARS from now?

[polish_aristocrat]

- far more government regulations?
- recurring billing gone?
- new billing options?
- everyone using Video on Demand?
- porn on a seperate .xxx domain ? ( it's still not 100% rejected AFAIK )
- average conversions 1:5000 ?
- everyone using P2P to get porn?
- GFY still being no 1 board, and still filled with surfers, trolls and sig-whores?

well... these are just some options, but what do YOU think will happen ?

[jimthefiend]

Headless will own Adult.com.

[QualityMpegs]

I'm looking to be President of the Interweb.

[Matt 26z]

The biggest changes are likely to revolve around international sales.

[sperbonzo]

I think that the opening of the Chinese and Indian markets will cause a HUGE boom in the online adult business in the next 5 to 10 years. Those populations comprise a demographic 6 times the size to the US, and once they come online, it's going to be massive. It'll be like the period from '98 to '01 all over again, only much much larger.

I also think that alternative payment methods will become much more viable as revenue streams.

[Rochard]

- far more government regulations?
No, I think less. The government has already fought the battle with the porn industry with Playboy, Hustler, and Penthouse - and lost. These days they are just going through the motions. Morals and values have changed, thanks in part to the Interenet, and people are no longer shocked by what they see on line. Combined with the fact that the Internet is world wide and cannot be controled by one country, I think there will be less regulations in the future.

- recurring billing gone?
Hell no. Recurring billing is the way to go. However, in the future the general public will wise up to it and you'll see the bulk of people signing up and then canceling a few moments later.

- new billing options?
I'm gussing there will be many more bililng options as the world wide market condenses. I hope that CCBill, Paycom, Netbililng, and the idiots at IBILL figure it all out.

- everyone using Video on Demand?
Video will be the wave of the future. Pix will be worthless, photographers will be out of work, and we'll all be watching porno delivered to our tv from the Internet. Mobile devices will be HUGE also.

- porn on a seperate .xxx domain ? ( it's still not 100% rejected AFAIK )
No, I don't think we'll see the .xxx domains take off. Instead, a new TLD will be set up that will be porn free.

- average conversions 1:5000 ?
Conversions will start to suck in the next ten years, making it a waste of time for most smaller affiliates. Currently there is no entry barrier into this industry, but that will change. It will take more work, more money up front, and won't be nearly worth the effort.

- everyone using P2P to get porn?
P2P will disappear because it will be deemed illegal.

- GFY still being no 1 board, and still filled with surfers, trolls and sig-whores?
GFY will remain the number board because it's the 800lbs gorilla backed by a huge company with deep pockets. It will take a lot of effort to dethrone it.

Good thread & good questions really.

[chowda]

economist get paid to predict the future, when they are right, they are right. When they are wrong, they tell you why its wrong.

same shit here.. y'all be wrong

[SilentKnight]

5 years from now Kastle Archives Productions will open a Yukon production facility to oversee the launch of the first igloo bondage niche site.

It'll be a huge seller in the north country where the web will be more widely available to an expanded market of eskimos and seal hunters.

[Rochard]

Originally Posted by SilentKnight

5 years from now Kastle Archives Productions will open a Yukon production facility to oversee the launch of the first igloo bondage niche site.

It'll be a huge seller in the north country where the web will be more widely available to an expanded market of eskimos and seal hunters.

That's seriously funny!

[Hunter_ST]

I am owned the web.

[u-Bob]

pay per view!!!!!

[tranza]

All of the above.

[polish_aristocrat]

any other opinions or do we have a fake drama day today?

[pimplink]

impossible to predict such things

[Matt_WildCash]

Originally Posted by sperbonzo

I think that the opening of the Chinese and Indian markets will cause a HUGE boom in the online adult business in the next 5 to 10 years. Those populations comprise a demographic 6 times the size to the US, and once they come online, it's going to be massive. It'll be like the period from '98 to '01 all over again, only much much larger.

I also think that alternative payment methods will become much more viable as revenue streams.

Sorry I disagree, Porn is banned in India, and Chinesse arrest people for 10+ years who sell porn in China and regulate there internet. They are a very poor country and its hard to bill Europe let along trying to bill China or India for a clearly PORN based product. no or very little income will come from those countrys for a long time to come.

[gfx3]

It won't be possible for newbies to start in the adult branche unless they have at least 50K to invest. The big companies will get huge and will control everything. Newbies won't stand a chance, traffic will become even more important than it already is. They will fight for every surfer.
I also predict a lot of buy outs, same thing will happen to internet porn as it has happened in maintream business. Not that hard to predict.
Ow and Juicy will have a fleshlight tattoo on his forehead.

[FIX01]

-average conversions 1:5000 ?

I can definately see this happening and it might not take 5 years.

[Rictor]

I am pretty sure I answered this question 5 years ago...I need to do a search...

[DeanCapture]

Originally Posted by THE PORNOGRAPHER FORMALLY KNOWN AS ROCHARD

Pix will be worthless, photographers will be out of work.....

Shame on you

[Rictor]

Originally Posted by Matt_WildCash

Sorry I disagree, Porn is banned in India, and Chinesse arrest people for 10+ years who sell porn in China and regulate there internet. They are a very poor country and its hard to bill Europe let along trying to bill China or India for a clearly PORN based product. no or very little income will come from those countrys for a long time to come.

China's GDP is $7,262,000,000,000 a year. Some one in the country is spending some money. The only country higher is the U.S. with $12,370,000,000,000. However, our economy depends on cheap products from China and their economy depends on a high U.S. dollar. China is the largest holder of U.S. currency in the world...they have trillions of U.S. dollars in their bank because they are artificially increasing the value of our currency. If they ever decided to unload all that currency, our entire economy would crash. Basically, China may rule the world (financially) in 10 years...now that might change the porn industry.

[polish_aristocrat]

shit its a Saturday, no klik-whores in the office to bump this....

[yol_yo_yo]

its a toughie to predict, I liked rochards comments. And also the fact the huge companies will start running things, seeing as this has happend in 99% of all other industries.

[bdld]

bigger than ever, but controlled by far fewer people.

[axelcat]

much much bigger

[sonofsam]

we will all work for kak_azn

[andrej_NDC]

more surfers with credit cards, more money...I dont see anything else

[andrej_NDC]

Originally Posted by Matt_WildCash

Sorry I disagree, Porn is banned in India, and Chinesse arrest people for 10+ years who sell porn in China and regulate there internet. They are a very poor country and its hard to bill Europe let along trying to bill China or India for a clearly PORN based product. no or very little income will come from those countrys for a long time to come.

Poor? There are 100 million people in China who are making some nice cash. And the comunism won't be there until forever.

[Babagirls]

- everyone using P2P to get porn?
P2P will disappear because it will be deemed illegal.
-Sleazybear
------------

i agree. i've said this since it was first introduced.

[sperbonzo]

Originally Posted by Matt_WildCash

Sorry I disagree, Porn is banned in India, and Chinesse arrest people for 10+ years who sell porn in China and regulate there internet. They are a very poor country and its hard to bill Europe let along trying to bill China or India for a clearly PORN based product. no or very little income will come from those countrys for a long time to come.

Right now we have an alternative billing system that is being used for gambling and about 4 1/2 million per month is coming from china.... and things haven't even started to open up yet. I think you underestimate these areas. Outlawing porn is not going to stop people either, and the chinese government is more concerned with human rights/political sites than anything else.

As for India, things are changing so fast there that you won't recognise it in 10 years.

There is also

[woj]

Originally Posted by Babagirls

- everyone using P2P to get porn?
P2P will disappear because it will be deemed illegal.
-Sleazybear
------------

i agree. i've said this since it was first introduced.

You can shutdown a company like napster, but p2p will be impossible to stop... If they somehow manage to kill one network, a new network will emerge... Sure down the road, less people may start using p2p networks, but it will never go away....

[Downtime]

Originally Posted by sperbonzo

I think that the opening of the Chinese and Indian markets will cause a HUGE boom in the online adult business in the next 5 to 10 years. Those populations comprise a demographic 6 times the size to the US, and once they come online, it's going to be massive. It'll be like the period from '98 to '01 all over again, only much much larger.

I also think that alternative payment methods will become much more viable as revenue streams.

Very, very important point. Geo-IP targeting is really going to come into a bigger focus.

[Pornwolf]

P2P will never be illegal. There are waaay too many legitimate uses for P2P. Hell the BBC is using P2P as their video delivery platform. So does www.radiofreevirgin.com as well as many other online based media companies.

Once a good IP version of P2P is perfected you will see new companies using it for on demand programming for high def tv.

[Herb Kornfield]

Here's my take:

Delivery Medthods to the End User -- It will be far more interactive and the delivery methods will change dramatically than any of us can imagine today.

The first step is fiber to the end user to give the average homeowner to have the bandwdith for applications such as video on Demand and IPTV.

IPTV is common in Asian countries.... so is 30, 50 100megs of Bandwidth to the house.

The ""Membership " -- I think that a 100% total interactive experience of taste, smell, sound and touch anywhere anytime as you wish at your total command ala Virtual Reality will be the way things will go down the road. Its a logical progression of the web and bringing the "experience" home to the end user.

Think of the money you can make if you could pull off this virtual reality experience. The content is always the perfect fantasy for the surfer and can be changed at the surfer's whim as it is today when crusing across niches.

Joe surfer could have Melissa Midwest at his beck and call... Virtually ... as could 10 bazillon other Joe Surfers at the same time as their personal virtual playmate.

Cams I think are an early incarnation of this ideal.

Affiliate programs --- You'll be paying a Join fee + have a monthly revenue target assigned to reach on a take or pay agreement.

This allows for the sponsor the following:

[ServerGenius]

I think a lot of the internet content will be hosted in Europe. I already notice
this now. Lots of US hosting providers that start setting up POPS in Amsterdam.
Before there were just a few, now it seems that everybody is moving here.

In the datacenter where I am I know at least 6 US providers that recently
rented either suites or cabinets, I have a few clients in other datacenters in
Amsterdam aswell. And they all expand fast.....the number of new servers
getting deployed is high.

Either a lot of adult companies want to move their base to Europe or setting
up an European server aswell for better content distribution for EU members.
I think this will go further due to new regulations in terms of law and billing.

Porn will never go away, we will see more High defenition stuff and it will
become more interactive live feeds, on demand video and even stuff where
members can edit their online vids by selecting scenes, actors, etc, etc.

I also predict a big hit in VOIP one on one chats with feeds. I see a lot of
possibilities in this field and I'm sure some companies are all over already to
exploit it.

[Herb Kornfield]

Here's my take:

Delivery Methods to the End User -- It will be far more interactive and the delivery methods will change dramatically than any of us can imagine today.

The first step is fiber to the end user to give the average homeowner to have the bandwidth for applications such as video on Demand and IPTV.

IPTV is common in Asian countries.... so is 30, 50 100megs of Bandwidth to the house.

The ""Membership " -- I think that a 100% total interactive experience of taste, smell, sound and touch anywhere anytime as you wish at your total command ala Virtual Reality will be the way things will go down the road. It?s a logical progression of the web and bringing the "experience" home to the end user.

Think of the money you can make if you could pull off this virtual reality experience. The content is always the perfect fantasy for the surfer and can be changed at the surfer's whim as it is today when cursing across niches.

Joe surfer could have Melissa Midwest at his beck and call... Virtually ... as could 10 bazillion other Joe Surfers at the same time as their personal virtual playmate.

Cams I think are an early incarnation of this ideal. They are the forerunner of the future experiences to come.

Affiliate programs --- You'll be paying a Join fee + have a monthly revenue target assigned to reach on a take or pay agreement.

This allows for the sponsor the following:

-- Return on time for Affiliate support that is spent on each affiliate by the sales rep / account rep.
-- Guaranteed results of total revenue performance of the sponsor to its owners, board or controlling interests.
-- Ability to weed out the time wasters that never send sale 1.
-- Maximize the return over the sponsors total spend on setting up the Affiliate with custom items, promos, whatever?..
-- Allow for people with the best performance sales wise to have greater resources. This opens up a junior affiliate and a whole world of sub affiliate ideas.
-- Allow for a real business development relationship to take place since your affiliate has a cash investment JUST to be in the program.
-- Create the need for the affiliate to want to send sales ONLY to you now that they have invested in your program over others and are actively pushing it to recoup a nice ROI.

These concepts here for Affiliates is how I run my mainstream program and I have to say that for the time invested back into my Affiliates every day has a much greater return + guaranteed sales for my pocket each day.

Interactive is the next step?. Total sensory experience ?? I cant wait.


Sorry the edit cut me off

[ServerGenius]

Originally Posted by Herb Kornfield

Here's my take:

Delivery Methods to the End User -- It will be far more interactive and the delivery methods will change dramatically than any of us can imagine today.

The first step is fiber to the end user to give the average homeowner to have the bandwidth for applications such as video on Demand and IPTV.

IPTV is common in Asian countries.... so is 30, 50 100megs of Bandwidth to the house.

The ""Membership " -- I think that a 100% total interactive experience of taste, smell, sound and touch anywhere anytime as you wish at your total command ala Virtual Reality will be the way things will go down the road. It?s a logical progression of the web and bringing the "experience" home to the end user.

Think of the money you can make if you could pull off this virtual reality experience. The content is always the perfect fantasy for the surfer and can be changed at the surfer's whim as it is today when cursing across niches.

Joe surfer could have Melissa Midwest at his beck and call... Virtually ... as could 10 bazillion other Joe Surfers at the same time as their personal virtual playmate.

Cams I think are an early incarnation of this ideal. They are the forerunner of the future experiences to come.

Affiliate programs --- You'll be paying a Join fee + have a monthly revenue target assigned to reach on a take or pay agreement.

This allows for the sponsor the following:

-- Return on time for Affiliate support that is spent on each affiliate by the sales rep / account rep.
-- Guaranteed results of total revenue performance of the sponsor to its owners, board or controlling interests.
-- Ability to weed out the time wasters that never send sale 1.
-- Maximize the return over the sponsors total spend on setting up the Affiliate with custom items, promos, whatever?..
-- Allow for people with the best performance sales wise to have greater resources. This opens up a junior affiliate and a whole world of sub affiliate ideas.
-- Allow for a real business development relationship to take place since your affiliate has a cash investment JUST to be in the program.
-- Create the need for the affiliate to want to send sales ONLY to you now that they have invested in your program over others and are actively pushing it to recoup a nice ROI.

These concepts here for Affiliates is how I run my mainstream program and I have to say that for the time invested back into my Affiliates every day has a much greater return + guaranteed sales for my pocket each day.

Interactive is the next step?. Total sensory experience ?? I cant wait.


Sorry the edit cut me off

Good post I'm sure new technology will cause that in the near future a lot
of the content will not just be watched on a computer. Mobile stuff will
also become a lot bigger than it is and new markets will make their way.
Some parts of Eastern Europe, Asia....allthough I'm not sure if that will
happen within the next 5 years or so.....but it will come. If China opens
up.....man you can't even imagine what that will mean. Sure there a lot of
poor people in China but not all the small wealthy percentage are still a
shitload of people. And people that have been surpressed that long are
usually very eager to explore their new freedoms.

I've been lots of times to Russia.....apart from industry you'll notice that
they are in somekind of flowerpower free sexual revolution phase. They
really have the feeling they have to catch up......and go all out.

[nikki99]

free porn for everyone

[polish_aristocrat]

Originally Posted by Herb Kornfield

...

great post but what you said about affiliates, i can't really see it coming as for now...

I mean - everyone says since two years already, that programs will be invite only - but what we see is just new programs still coming out - and they are competing against each other so hard that they happily take every affiliate and host him for free and submit his galleries ;)
So these are two opposite things I'd say.
BTW LightspeedCash went invite only recently and now they're back already to accepting everyone.

And what about traffic sources? Will TGP always be the standard? Will free porn distribution model ever get changed?

And yes, conversions... I know everyone says its the $$ that matters and not if you convert 1:300 or 1:3000, but IMO they are still somehow important - whether its a Hun listing otr top Google spot for "hot teens" - it does make a difference for everyone business how he converts...

If todays conversios are significantly worse that f.e in 2001, then how will be 2011 conversions compared to 2006? Will they get worse for the same reasons they got worse today compared to the "golden days". Will they get better again because of new billing options and more interactive and surfer appealing ways of paysites/interactive communities that cannot be substituted by free clips and pics on TGPs ?

[czarina]

The only issue that I can see causing a real problem in the future would the the lack of CC companies that will process adult. For now we are just fine. but if they were to find forced religion, ( government ) then we could have issues. BUT this is the exact thing that will make someone come up with a new idea.

[Pornwolf]

Originally Posted by DynaSpain

I've been lots of times to Russia.....apart from industry you'll notice that
they are in somekind of flowerpower free sexual revolution phase. They
really have the feeling they have to catch up......and go all out.

Hmm... *checks online travel site for tix to Russia*

[ServerGenius]

Originally Posted by Pornwolf

Hmm... *checks online travel site for tix to Russia*

I can recommend this, Russia is so much different then what you expect of it.
I've over 40 times in Moscow and it's a very nice city certainly worth visiting.
And yes you will notice the mentality towards sex, you notice it inmediately
just by the way girls look at you or when you talk to them. And no I'm not
talking hookers.....or girls that hope to get some "rich" foreigner. I can't
really explain it, but I'm sure when you get there you will notice the same thing.

It's maybe best described as curious and eager to try stuff that they could
never think, speak out or try. It's very cool to witness if you ever get the
chance to go, do it. I'll guarantee that you'll love it.

[Pornopat]

I have nothing significant to add.
I just think this thread might be bumped in 5 years.
So I would like to say hello to the future.
Hello future and see future sig!

[Drake]

Originally Posted by Matt_WildCash

Sorry I disagree, Porn is banned in India, and Chinesse arrest people for 10+ years who sell porn in China and regulate there internet. They are a very poor country and its hard to bill Europe let along trying to bill China or India for a clearly PORN based product. no or very little income will come from those countrys for a long time to come.

I agree with this though I hope I'm wrong. Not only the laws and culture surrounding porn in those countries, but most of the people their have no money. The people in China and India who are going to be part of ecommerce are already online right now because they can afford to. The rest are farmers and merchants eeking out a wretched life. For our forseeable future I don't think this bolds well. Sure, maybe a couple hundred years from now. But 10 years? Nope. My feeling is that the prediction that China will be a huge market boost for us is like the track record of most financial advisors... piss poor.

[Rhesus]

Interesting thread that deserves a bump

[andrej_NDC]

Originally Posted by Mike33

The people in China and India who are going to be part of ecommerce are already online right now because they can afford to.

No, they are not. Out of 100 million rich China people, maybe just a few % are able to visit porn sites. The system over there works too good. A friend of mine was there for 1 year, to study. He was not able to access most porn sites and he is not a web newbie, if he did for a few minutes, he was cut off instantly.

[TheDoc]

I think we will see the end of the general promotion type webmaster. The industry is already changing over to automating anything and everything. Give it 10 more years. Traffic services auto integrate into your program, through your phone you can turn on and off traffic or move it to other locations, the ideas are already endless.

Ipods, palms, cell phones, etc.. Those will be information, news, music, email, etc. They will all come the key holders for that exact type of media, news & info. People need and want privacy on subjects such as porn and masturbation. Porn will stay strong on the home PC front.

VISA, already is becoming less of a threat to the industry. Yes, if they pulled this second it would hurt most of us, but we would still be around. We already have so many different alternate billing solutions, if VISA pulled, something else would become the standard. That's now and even more so 10 years from now.

The GOV, is already fucked when it comes to the adult industry. They are 10 years behind understand what we are doing now and the gap is getting even larger. Another 10 years and we will be such a broad industry, it won't be touchable.

What will attack us? The media. We fraud, scam, steal ids, sell credit card info, etc.. While I think this type of crap will increase, it isn't our industry doing it, however it will be pushed as if it is us. What will save us? The fact that most of us don't do it, so a trust level has been built and will continue to grow, however the media will continue to try to hurt us.

The industry will change in many areas of course. Just like 10 years ago, we were making money with different items, sites, theories, etc.. We now have more ways to make money than any one single business could ever manage. This will expand us into areas we can't even dream of yet.


Interactive videos, wave of the future.

[polish_aristocrat]

Originally Posted by Rhesus

Interesting thread that deserves a bump

thanks

[Pornwolf]

Originally Posted by TheDoc

Interactive videos, wave of the future.

I agree with that. Definitely.

[nofx]

best thread of the week

[polish_aristocrat]

Originally Posted by nofx

best thread of the week

thx.... it didnt make it even to the second page though :/