WarChild

Just finished reading "State of Fear" by Michael Crichton. It's fiction, but Crichton did quite a bit of research in to the science that forms the background of the story.

In any case, some facts (references available) that you might not know:

From 1986 to 2000 central Antarctic valleys cooled .7 degrees C per decade with serious ecosystem damage from the cold.

Both satellite data and ground stations show slight cooling over the last 20 years.

Side-looking radar measurements show West Antarctic ice is increasting at 26.8 gagatons/yr. Reversing the melting trend of the last 6000 years.

Antarctic peninsula has warmed several degrees while interior has cooled somewhat. Ice shelves have retreated but sea ice has increase.

During the last four interglacials, going back 420,000 years, the Earth was warmer than it is today.

Less Antarctic ice has melted today than occured during the last interglacial.

Antarctic sea ice has increased since 1979.

The greater part of Antarctica experiences a longer sea-ice season, lasting 21 days longer than it did in 1979.

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brand0n

so in a nutshell they are feeding us a line of shit?

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OG LennyT

global warming is a marketing tool and even a political device for conservation groups seeking monetary and/or political gain...

nothing more

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WarChild

Not exactly.

The atmosphere and enviroment are very complex. Mostly, nobody really knows what's going to happen and why. 30 years ago scientists were predicting the next ice age was right around the corner. What scientists have to say today are really best guess predictions, with very little hard science. We simply don't know.

Also, statics used to measure the changes are highly suspect. Temperatures were not always measured by satellites, and much of the historical data is measured at ground stations in or near to large cities. This could have a huge impact when you consider the size and population density a huge gathering of humans has on the immediate area. New York, a fairly small state shows temperature increase in NY city, but in a smaller city only 80 miles away a slight decrease over the past 15 years. Shouldn't "Global Warming" apply globally? How can there be such a discrepency only 80 miles apart?

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bushwacker

things that make u go hmmmm....by the way good book.

WarChild

I actually found it a little dry but there's some interesting research behind it.

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bushwacker

all his books are like that, but he does do some very intensive research.

Nikki_Licks

I saw a documentary last weekend about global warming and the ice cap is melting or receding 30 miles a century. It won?t be long before man ruins every the entire planet.

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zEn84

So I don't have to sell my SUV??

dissipate

I'm going to be dead and gone by the time any of it happens *yawn*

Dvae

But who can you believe, somebody who does some real research or Al Gore?
Thats a toughie!

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.

Arguing with a troll is a lot like wrestling in the mud with a pig, after a couple of hours you realize the pig likes it.

CuriousToyBoy

I forget who it was, but some comedian once described global warming as "God peeing in his pants".

;-)

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Dvae

Thats strange.
I just saw one that said thats not the case.

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Arguing with a troll is a lot like wrestling in the mud with a pig, after a couple of hours you realize the pig likes it.

AgentCash

notabook

Global warming is about as real as Bigfoot, though if it is you can be guaranteed it smells a hell of a lot better.

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pocketkangaroo

That's the problem with global warming issue. Al Gore is backed up by a lot of scientists too. In fact, a majority of the scientists believe in global warming. Nonetheless, others still believe that there isn't, or that it's just part of the natural evolution of the planet. I think more research needs to be done and that there isn't a clear consensus amongst scientists. I think saying it doesn't exist, or saying it's ending the world soon, are both two extremes.

viva celebs

99% of scientists agree that global warming is happening, its as good as fact. the only difference is the world is saying humans are causing it while the US (i know the US is in the world, but we all sleep better at night thinking it aint) are saying it might not be.

i'm sure its just a coincidence that the country denying humans are causing it would be the most affected financially, economically and in general life by the steps we would have to take to tackle the problem... which the rest of the developed world has already agreed to do, and has already put into action.

WarChild

This simply isn't true. Most computer models show Global Warming to be true but actual observed data often contridicts this.

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Pleasurepays

the "US" is saying global warming isn't happening?

really?

I'm American and i am pretty sure there isn't a universal view on the issue that 300,000,000 people have adopted. Last I heard, it was a hotly debated issue everywhere, including the US. I am a little pissed now that i wasn't informed that my mind was made up for me on the issue.

dipshit.

pack

Arguments that bring up "but years ago, scientists said the we were going to have an ice age!" or "years ago, scientists said the ozone layer was being eaten up and we'd all die of skin cancer" miss the point.

These problems were real. Scientists warned us, industry claimed that regulation would be their ruin, and politicians gave us the 'clean air act' and the 'montreal protocol.'

As a result, the particulate matter that was causing 'global dimming' is now filtered out at the factory level. And products containing ozone-destroying chemical agents have been fazed out. Our sky's are clearer, our lungs are less at risk, and the ozone-layer is expected to make a comeback by 2075.

Industry wasn't doomed.

bl4h

BULLSHIT. Ive seen documentaries that have shown areas that were once ice covered, now completely dry. They also told a complete opposite story (the scientists)

Satilite photos of depleted ozone yadda yadda

Believe what you want, but i suggest you heed warnings rather than die being someone who fucked shit up for generations ahead

tony286

the sad thing is by the time we find out if it is real. It will be too late.

WarChild

At one time most of North America was covered in Ice. Did that reatreat because of green houses gasses produced by man? Think carefully.

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Jinx

So lets all go get a tan...

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WarChild

The computer simulations say that the global temperature should have risen in the last 100 years by roughly 0.5 - 1.5 C .While the magnitude of the rise, as post-predicted by the computer simulations, seems to agree with the observed temperature rise of 0.5 C, it is inconsistent with the timing of the warming.

The record of global temperature shows that most of the warming of the last 100 years occurred before 1940. But most of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases entered the atmosphere after 1940. Human-made greenhouse gases cannot cause a warming that took place before they existed in the atmosphere. Therefore, most of the 0.5 C rise must be natural. Only a small part of the 0.5 C rise -- no more than a few tenths degree -- could have been caused by human-made greenhouse gases. In other words, the 0.5 - 1.5 C warming predicted by the computer simulations exaggerates the greenhouse effect produced by the equivalent 50% buildup of carbon dioxide.

That's right folks, the bulk of the .5 degree temperature raise reported over the last 100 years happened before 1940.

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bl4h

1)I dont think about it, because im not a scientist. I rely on scientists, and their studies.

2) dumb question. The problem is the RATE at which its receding

E$_manager

Oh! that was an interesting book you were reading!
Who could think!

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L-Pink

So can I start to use aerosol deodorant again or what?

WarChild

But you're assuming that ice is receding all over the planet, which it is not.

Side-looking radar measurements show West Antarctic ice is increasing at 26.8 gigatons/yr. Reversing the melting trend of the last 6,000 years
Joughin, L, and Tulaczyk, S., 20002, "Positive mass balance of the Ross Ice Streams, West Antarctica," Science 295: 476-80

So if the Earth is un-naturally warming, and it's happening globaly, how do you explain that ice in at least location is increasing, not decreasing?

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stickyfingerz

Cant believe I was first one to post this in this thread....

WarChild

Did you know that computer models prediciting the increase in Earth's surface temperature over the next 100 years vary by as much as 400%. 400%? That sounds more like a broad guess than any real scientific evidence.

When James E. Hansen announced in the summer of 1988 that global warming was here, he predicted temperatures would increase .35 degrees celsius over the next ten years. The actual incrase was .11 degrees. He overestimated by 300 percent.

10 years after making his predictions, at the Natioanl Academy of Sciences, October 1998 Hansen went on to say "The forcings that drive long0term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change".

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E$_manager

So it is impossible to say what would be the warming. You only know that it will be.

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