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The computer simulations say that the global temperature should have risen in the last 100 years by roughly 0.5 - 1.5 C .While the magnitude of the rise, as post-predicted by the computer simulations, seems to agree with the observed temperature rise of 0.5 C, it is inconsistent with the timing of the warming.
The record of global temperature shows that most of the warming of the last 100 years occurred before 1940. But most of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases entered the atmosphere after 1940. Human-made greenhouse gases cannot cause a warming that took place before they existed in the atmosphere. Therefore, most of the 0.5 C rise must be natural. Only a small part of the 0.5 C rise -- no more than a few tenths degree -- could have been caused by human-made greenhouse gases. In other words, the 0.5 - 1.5 C warming predicted by the computer simulations exaggerates the greenhouse effect produced by the equivalent 50% buildup of carbon dioxide.
That's right folks, the bulk of the .5 degree temperature raise reported over the last 100 years happened before 1940.
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