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Old 03-16-2006, 09:04 AM   #101
will76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bellskids
I dont know why people are jumping all over Wil,l his points are largely valid. I have always believed the summer slowdown to be caused by a webmaster slowdown as webmasters work less hard in th eheat, take time off, go on vacation etc. In some years I have encountered a drop in sales but if im honest with myself it was because I stopped working so hard. When ive worked hard ive had some of the best periods of growth during the summer months. However I think that he also is naive to believe that there are never random problems which can drastically impact sales for people on a given day. He is talking longterm and his points are valid but there can be short term problems.

For example when CCbill changed their affiliate admin recently and people complained of problems I noticed that for a few days our net% jumped from its usual 60%~ level to 80%~ before returning to normal. Anybody would be hard pressed to convince me that those were not related. I know for sure I did no extra promo work of my own that would result in the increase in unreferred sales and traffic etc looked normal.

But yeah, dont stress about a single days sales, work hard and only analyse your stats in minute detail once a week. Or once a month. As your sales volume increases things become more stable and patterns appear more clear.
i actually just made a post addressing the issues you mentioned, you and me are 100% on the same page and you are the type of person I would like to work with / associate with. I can't even be friends with people who are negative, muchless work with the complainers, excuse makers, it is never my fault, etc.. there are few legit situations like you mentioned and i posted after. but very few situations.
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Old 03-16-2006, 09:39 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by will76
i actually just made a post addressing the issues you mentioned, you and me are 100% on the same page and you are the type of person I would like to work with / associate with. I can't even be friends with people who are negative, muchless work with the complainers, excuse makers, it is never my fault, etc.. there are few legit situations like you mentioned and i posted after. but very few situations.
You are one of the most negative people here Will. Read back over your posts for a year if you don't think so.
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Old 03-16-2006, 09:47 AM   #103
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Old 03-16-2006, 10:32 AM   #104
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GFY's Calender of excuses

January: Credit Cards maxed out from Christmas / Superbowl
February: Credit Cards maxed out from Christmas
March: Spring Break
April: Taxes
May: Summer Slow Down
June: Summer Slow Down
August: Summer Slow Down/Kids Back in School
September: Kids back in school.
October: Saving For Christmas
November: Saving For Christmas
December: Holidays/Christmas Spending

Holidays:
Bad Economy
War
Good Weather
Sporting Events
Law and Order
This sums it up
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Old 03-16-2006, 10:58 AM   #105
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This sums it up
i don't think anything on here could be more cut and dry. there are either people who believe in excuses (err these *reasons* why they do bad) or there are people who believe that they control how much they make and this shit does not affect them. You are either or.
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Old 03-16-2006, 11:00 AM   #106
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You are one of the most negative people here Will. Read back over your posts for a year if you don't think so.
I can see how some people might think I am negative. I am actually the opposite. you can get confused easily. I don't have a negative out look on life, business, anything, except for negative unproductive excuse making people. Find me one post where i make excusess for why i am not doing good a certain day, or complaining about something (other then people who complain, lie, cheat, steal, etc..)
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Old 03-16-2006, 11:05 AM   #107
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Slow here as well. We need another christmas to get new surfers online.
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Old 03-16-2006, 11:06 AM   #108
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There are still plenty of customers out there, so people like me, who continue to work 24/7 continue to make good money.
Posting mile long sermons on GFY doesnt count as work.
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Old 03-16-2006, 11:07 AM   #109
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the damn skin off our backs.

march madness won't help anyone out either or that fact that spring break grows longer every year.
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Old 03-16-2006, 11:17 AM   #110
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And Will you're flat out wrong. Certain world events do impact sales. Yes sales will all eventually even out. You'll have good days and bad days. But you can utylize your stats to determine what days are better than others and use your marketing resources to better capitalize on those days.

A major snow storm blanketing the East coast is going to make sales rise. More people indoors, home from work and sitting in front of their computer.

Summer months, more people outside doing outdoor things and less time in front of their computer.

Christmas, credit cards maxed out for presents and events, less expendable income.

1st and the 16th of the month, people are being direct deposited their paychecks and bank accounts and debit cards have larger balances.

Etc etc, etc.

The global economy fluxuates on this premise all the time. Retail sales in September will drop if an Indian Summer occurs as less people are purchasing winter clothing and it sits on the shelves.

To sit back and say "shit happens, look at it over a month or year and it will avg out" is a idiotic and lazy way of conducting business.
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Old 03-16-2006, 12:01 PM   #111
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Your assuming that it takes 3 months for people to chargeback their credit card. If they chargeback within a couple weeks then scrubbing will most certainly be effective in lowering chargeback ratio for the month. Heavy scrub + rebills will dramatically lower chargeback ratio. The other major flaw in your logic is that you say by increasing transactions you will decrease the chargeback ratio. This obviously isn't correct if the chargebacks take less than a month to occurr. The other major problem with this is that even if you assume that chargebacks take an average of 3 months to occur, by increasing transactions you will increase the chargeback ratio dramatically in 3 months. So if they increased transactions they would destroy themselves in 3 months unless they dramatically increased transactions processed every single month. This would be basically a ponzi scheme where at one point the bubble would burst. Since ccbill/paycom have been around a long time I find it highly unlikely they would do this. So logically if chargebacks are high this month they would scrub immediately to prevent more chargebacks. And assuming a long term chargeback ratio they would still scrub to avoid a bubble bursting scenario.

While it's nice that you have have listed your theory above, I'm not wrong. I spent 2 years as a VP at CCBill (00-02), worked with ePassporte for 2 years, and currently underwrite merchant accounts for some very successful accounts.

The majority of chargebacks do not occur within the month that the charges were incurred. They occur in months 2 and 3 after the charges. Also, the majority of accounts that would incur chargeback problems are normally high volume accounts with affiliate programs. The average single girl site, run by the girl or her other half, does not run into chargeback issues. The volume isn't there and the personal touch/support they offer pretty much precludes problems with the account.

The goal in processing is to continually grow the volume, while minimizing the chargebacks. There is such a thing as good volume, as well as such a thing as bad volume. Alot of this can and most often does, have to do with affiliate traffic, especially in a pay per signup environment.

Identifying this troublesome traffic and eliminating it is the nature and purpose of fraud scrubbing. No one, including the processor, makes more money by choking the transaction level down, unless there are other factors involved that create an unusual situation. I've seen very few unusual situations in the last 7 years.

The balance of adding good transactions to the mix and removing the bad ones is not an easy calculation sometimes. To further compound the problem, once an account is in trouble, the amount of time before fines or termination occur is generally less than 90 days. Month 1 of chargeback problems is over and done with before most account holders realize they have issues. Month 2 is the halfway point where the situation has to be taken in hand and improved, with Month 3 being the make or break point.

No one is exempt from this cycle, it's part of every merchant account agreement that's issued, since the 3 months is a card association rule, not an arbitrary bank rule that some banks issue and some do not.
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Old 03-16-2006, 12:05 PM   #112
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I'll also add that February is the worst month for chargebacks, for multiple reasons.

It's 2-3 days short of a full months transaction cycle for new signups.

It's the month where everyone sees the last of the holiday charges come through and people do get the "holiday hangover" where they start to look for everything they can find to reduce their card debt.

It's also the first month in which most people work on their income taxes in the US. W-2s and 1099s must be mailed by January 31, and most employers wait until the last possible minute to send them out. Getting all the receipts etc together for taxes causes people to all the sudden realize they've been billed for this or that, and when they call their banks for chargebacks, multiple months end up being charged back more than usual.
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Old 03-16-2006, 12:14 PM   #113
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Kimmykim, don't they update filters and try new twists? This could account for peaks and valleys in what we call scrubbing.

Will, you are crazy. You sound like you want to be positve and force for good etc but you come off as a pompous dope. Of course world events hurt sales. Christmas Eve is a bad day. Look it up. If there is one there is others.
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Old 03-16-2006, 12:17 PM   #114
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Don't listen to KimmyKim, she is new in to billing, do not worry about chargebacks. You are on stealth mode, made by teflon. You won't be affected ever.
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Old 03-16-2006, 03:18 PM   #115
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OK so i guess the real question would be why do they SCRUB everyone like a bitch all at once instead of the problem accounts that Kimmy is talking about. When sales go to shit it happens to everyone at once and most of the time there is no external causes. Great sales sat, sun, mon, and then universally terrible sales tuesday is not explainable by spring break nor is it explainable by random sales variation since its happening to everyone.
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Old 03-16-2006, 03:20 PM   #116
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Does ccbill scrub december hard because they anticipate chargebacks in february? This would make sense according to what you say kimmykim.
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Old 03-16-2006, 05:22 PM   #117
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Old 03-16-2006, 05:30 PM   #118
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Bad day here. Two solid days before - will still make more this month than i did last month so i don't care.
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Old 03-16-2006, 10:28 PM   #119
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Posting mile long sermons on GFY doesnt count as work.

so you still positive that clickcash shaves, Man you have said some assine things in the past.
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Old 03-16-2006, 10:29 PM   #120
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Originally Posted by Atticus
And Will you're flat out wrong. Certain world events do impact sales. Yes sales will all eventually even out. You'll have good days and bad days. But you can utylize your stats to determine what days are better than others and use your marketing resources to better capitalize on those days.

A major snow storm blanketing the East coast is going to make sales rise. More people indoors, home from work and sitting in front of their computer.

Summer months, more people outside doing outdoor things and less time in front of their computer.

Christmas, credit cards maxed out for presents and events, less expendable income.

1st and the 16th of the month, people are being direct deposited their paychecks and bank accounts and debit cards have larger balances.

Etc etc, etc.

The global economy fluxuates on this premise all the time. Retail sales in September will drop if an Indian Summer occurs as less people are purchasing winter clothing and it sits on the shelves.

To sit back and say "shit happens, look at it over a month or year and it will avg out" is a idiotic and lazy way of conducting business.
thanks i have now added " the indian summer" to my list.
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Old 03-16-2006, 10:34 PM   #121
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Originally Posted by slapass
Kimmykim, don't they update filters and try new twists? This could account for peaks and valleys in what we call scrubbing.

Will, you are crazy. You sound like you want to be positve and force for good etc but you come off as a pompous dope. Of course world events hurt sales. Christmas Eve is a bad day. Look it up. If there is one there is others.

believe what you want to believe

i am just a pompus ass, i know nothing.
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Old 03-17-2006, 02:05 AM   #122
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Old 03-17-2006, 02:43 AM   #123
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You all need to buy more traffic and double down

DH
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Old 03-17-2006, 08:20 AM   #124
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You all need to buy more traffic and double down

DH
not during spring break and march madness, its a waste.

Hey DH i want to buy some traffic but I only want it the first half of the month when every gets their checks, and I dont want it on Sat or Sun because of College football and NFL. We need to wait till after spring break and before tax day, or after tax day and before may when summer starts. Oh and if it is a good weather day please pull my links and dont charge me. And if it is a bad thunderstorm day and some people lose electricity i want you to pull my links too.. do you know anything about the weather or should i page you when i see something happening? Why do i want to buy advertising when the interweb is going to be soft.
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Old 03-17-2006, 08:28 AM   #125
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haha yahoo warned us they told us all those pesky college girls become 70% more permiscuous during spring break.
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Old 03-17-2006, 08:50 AM   #126
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so you still positive that clickcash shaves, Man you have said some assine things in the past.
Yes, Yes I am. And why is it that no matter what the topic is you bring up clickcash shaving? Now you're defending them when nobody is even talking about it.

And on a side note, what the hell is assine?
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Old 03-17-2006, 09:01 AM   #127
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not during spring break and march madness, its a waste.

Hey DH i want to buy some traffic but I only want it the first half of the month when every gets their checks, and I dont want it on Sat or Sun because of College football and NFL. We need to wait till after spring break and before tax day, or after tax day and before may when summer starts. Oh and if it is a good weather day please pull my links and dont charge me. And if it is a bad thunderstorm day and some people lose electricity i want you to pull my links too.. do you know anything about the weather or should i page you when i see something happening? Why do i want to buy advertising when the interweb is going to be soft.
I really hope your shit is all an act. I seriously do.

P.S. B&M stores don't have better sales days at Christmas because trends are impossible!
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Old 03-17-2006, 09:08 AM   #128
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Sales slumps are a myth. Why would anyone believe these lies they've been spewing since the beginning of online sales!

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/11308.html
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Old 03-17-2006, 09:35 AM   #129
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134 sign ups overhere
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Old 03-17-2006, 09:49 AM   #130
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Old 03-17-2006, 09:56 AM   #131
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OK so i guess the real question would be why do they SCRUB everyone like a bitch all at once instead of the problem accounts that Kimmy is talking about. When sales go to shit it happens to everyone at once and most of the time there is no external causes. Great sales sat, sun, mon, and then universally terrible sales tuesday is not explainable by spring break nor is it explainable by random sales variation since its happening to everyone.
Sales are bad for some this week, but I'd be willing to bet that somewhere there are guys have those record weeks, they just aren't posting about it. They're cashing their checks and laughing all the way to the bank.

For a processor to have a really bad day or a really bad week, you'd have to see some technical issues most likely. The connectivity to the bank is bad, something along those lines...
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Old 03-17-2006, 09:59 AM   #132
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Wonder if theres some technical issues then. Yesterday was my slowest of the year so far, today not looking much better yet.
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Old 03-17-2006, 10:46 AM   #133
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Sales will pick up.

Everybody is going to start getting those tax returns in the mail.

After they buy a lawn mower and a dryer for the wife they'll treat themselves to a paysite.
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Old 03-17-2006, 10:50 AM   #134
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This week was probably my best one ALL YEAR!

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Old 03-17-2006, 11:50 AM   #135
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Sales slumps are a myth. Why would anyone believe these lies they've been spewing since the beginning of online sales!

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/11308.html
there are sale slumps and there is internet porn, two totally different things. Fucking right i believe in retail sales slumps, that is east to prove. Someone prove to me, from statistics where fucking snow storms cause ONLINE PORN sales to go up or down, proof or shut the fuck up.

Internet porn is not affected by all the other things that clothing, and new car sales, and all that shit is affected by. Can you tell the difference between the two ?
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Old 03-17-2006, 12:07 PM   #136
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there are sale slumps and there is internet porn, two totally different things. Fucking right i believe in retail sales slumps, that is east to prove. Someone prove to me, from statistics where fucking snow storms cause ONLINE PORN sales to go up or down, proof or shut the fuck up.

Internet porn is not affected by all the other things that clothing, and new car sales, and all that shit is affected by. Can you tell the difference between the two ?
You're right, it's affected by it's own shit. You are a damned fool if you think it's not, seriously.
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Old 03-17-2006, 12:09 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by Kimmykim
Sales are bad for some this week, but I'd be willing to bet that somewhere there are guys have those record weeks, they just aren't posting about it. They're cashing their checks and laughing all the way to the bank.

For a processor to have a really bad day or a really bad week, you'd have to see some technical issues most likely. The connectivity to the bank is bad, something along those lines...

you are 100% correct.

the only reason there are more people posting in this thread tha they are having a bad day today is because of the title of the thread. People look for excuses, so if you having a bad day today too, you see this thread you come read it so you can *find out* where your sales are low

if you started another thread " record sales today" you would have more people posting in that thread that are saying they are having a good day then ones posting they are having a bad day. I actually did this to prove a point last year, I believe it was for tax day, and sure enough i was correct. go figure a pompus noob like me getting something right.

its funny when people swear that sales are down because of some bullshit excuse like weather and then just as many people come along the same day and say it was a good/great day for them. how do you losers explain that? doesn't that destroy your own arguments, which you have no proof to back in the first place.
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Old 03-17-2006, 12:18 PM   #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chadglni
You're right, it's affected by it's own shit. You are a damned fool if you think it's not, seriously.
yee of little closed mind, you underestimate people's perversions and need for sexual gratification. Think about addictions. This is the last fucking time i will try to educate you i swear... think about smoking. do people smoke less after christmas, do people smoke less because money is tight? this is just one example to show that people look at porn no matter what is going on, and they will spend their last dime on it. This could be proved so many different ways, the tax myth is bullshit, 95% of people get money back, so that would be more money to spend. And tax day, shit by april 15 most people have already gotten their refunds. and spring break, *most* people who go on spring break are the ones that go out a lot and can pick up. So all the unpopular lonely type stay home, and yank it 24/7 to make up for it, and they are your true base anyway.. so many ways this shit can be disproved and yet you clueless hold on to the " naaa hunnh, i think you are wrong" argument which lacks a lot of substance LOL.

But here is the kickers that no one can argue with me on, for every one person having a bad day there is one persons having a good day.
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Old 03-17-2006, 12:23 PM   #139
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jesus christ, haven't you got better things to do will than post thousands of words in a single thread. I got better things to do than read that shit
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Old 03-17-2006, 12:25 PM   #140
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Originally Posted by will76

But here is the kickers that no one can argue with me on, for every one person having a bad day there is one persons having a good day.
Post proof or stfu. Will you are being an idiot. There is no way around it, you are being a damn idiot. All kinds of shit affects sales regardless of how addicted people are. You don't think peoples credit cards are maxed more in certain months than others? Go argue with Visa and Mastercard you fucking dope. You can bum $4 to buy cigs but you can't bum $4 on your god damned credit card when it's maxed the fuck out. You are wrong, you are being a retard, and I will not be responding to this ignorant shit again.
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Old 03-17-2006, 12:29 PM   #141
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http://www.klixxx.com/stories/greenguy/webtip2.shtml

Will should hire out consulting work for $5000 an hour. Surely the companies losing millions when they shouldn't be can pay that.

http://www.klixxx.com/stories/greenguy/webtip2.shtml

He made it all up right?
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Old 03-17-2006, 01:09 PM   #142
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jesus christ, haven't you got better things to do will than post thousands of words in a single thread. I got better things to do than read that shit
lol read that again 3 times real fast.
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Old 03-17-2006, 01:17 PM   #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chadglni
http://www.klixxx.com/stories/greenguy/webtip2.shtml

Will should hire out consulting work for $5000 an hour. Surely the companies losing millions when they shouldn't be can pay that.

http://www.klixxx.com/stories/greenguy/webtip2.shtml

He made it all up right?
reading that post gave me the shakes... whoiiaaaaa. he really believes that shit. he couldn't be more wrong.

that's his opinion i am sure he believes it. You can choose to believe greenguy over me, your choice, but where is his proof ?

I do like this part, "when you get home your sales will be cut in half" LOL when you get home, meaning he was a way all week. I know if i left all week my sales would suffer too from neglect.

Thanks you just gave all the noobs somethign to look forward to, memorial day, they will start making 1/2 what they making now, but wait they are making half what they making now from 2 weeks ago because of spring break, but 2 weeks agfo they were making half because it was right after christmas and all the cards were maxed.... blahhaha how does anyone ever make money .... LOL thanks for the entertainment, greenguy is ignorant for believing that btw, but just means more money for me so it is all cool.
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Old 03-17-2006, 01:20 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by chadglni
You are wrong, you are being a retard, and I will not be responding to this ignorant shit again.
thats some good proof you got there.

you promise ? I am going to be posting all week, non stop i took off for the week because i heard my sales would suck this week for spring break so why bother working...
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Old 03-17-2006, 01:25 PM   #145
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Weather, seasons, significant historical events, etc have ABSOLUTELY NO BEARING on human behavior...


yeh, uhm, ok...history books, psychology and marketing people from every walk of life and background might note otherwise

just maaaybeee



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Old 03-17-2006, 01:29 PM   #146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheJimmy
Weather, seasons, significant historical events, etc have ABSOLUTELY NO BEARING on human behavior...


yeh, uhm, ok...history books, psychology and marketing people from every walk of life and background might note otherwise

just maaaybeee



Greenguy is such a noob. His 8 years of stats dipping the same time every year is pulled out of his ass.
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Old 03-17-2006, 07:44 PM   #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chadglni
Greenguy is such a noob. His 8 years of stats dipping the same time every year is pulled out of his ass.

my 7 years show otherwise. Wow, sales cut in half after memorial day, what a bummer.

he might not be a noob, but he is in the dark if he believes in that shit. Still waiting for proof. go get your visa stats, like that matters, 98% of visa transactions are not porn anyway. so how is that relivant i already said i know there are trends with B&M stores, mainstream retails sales, but not with ONLINE porn, sorry it is a myth that all of you believe to explain why your sales SUCK on any given day.

So Chad, which slow downs do you believe in, the summer, tax day, spring break ? which ones? see people like you don't believe in slow downs until they happen. 100% fact every day could be explained by a slow down, but are all days slow NOPE! so on your good days, you doing good, on a bad day you find an excuse... period. end of story, you can not dispute this.

here is how you people can prove yourselves wrong. write a list of all of your supposed slow downs NOW, keep working as if it was a normal day and see how your sales did, i bet 50% of the time you will do less then average on those days and 50% you will do better then average.... if you can't understand this then god there is no hope for any of you.
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Old 03-18-2006, 10:09 PM   #148
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This is a pretty informative thread.

FYI - we saw no drop in sales this week whatsoever.

Z
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Old 03-19-2006, 09:45 AM   #149
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This is a pretty informative thread.

FYI - we saw no drop in sales this week whatsoever.

Z

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Old 03-19-2006, 11:05 AM   #150
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40 years from now somebody posts statistical data backing up various slowdowns in porn for 50 years back. Will76 argues with them also.
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