Peak Oil: life after the oil crash - GoFuckYourself.com

Flow · 09-11-2005, 10:37 PM

So I was listening to AM radio last night (am I getting old or what) and there was this guy on the talk show talking about how in 5 to 10 years the world will hit this thing called PEAK OIL - where we cannot get any more oil than what we are getting at this point (i.e. the most oil ever used and cannot get more ever). This is NOT the point where we run out of oil, but a point where we start seeing annual declines in worldwide production of oil on the tune of 3-5% annually until about 2050 where we run out completely. This put together with 3-5% annual increases in worldwide oil consumption means really bad thing are going to happen if it really comes true.

He said the 70's oil crisis was due to a 5% drop off in production so imagine a 10% shift.

The show went on for 3 hours or more and I gotta say it scared me enough to visit his website and spend an hour reading the main two pages, which scared me even more. Here is the link if you want to take a look around:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

Basically (to quote the movie Armegedon) it's the worst parts of the Bible...

1) Every aspect of our culture is driven by oil. Not only for the cars we drive, the plane we ride in or the trucks that deliver our goods to Walmart in, but almost EVERY aspect of it. Pestisides/herbisides are made from oil, farm EQ realy on oil, electricity that we use in our homes depend on oil, water purifcation, national defense, and modern medines all depend on oil for production, and so on down the list...

2) People will not be able to afford to drive to work as gas will go up to over $50 a gallon due to shortages. Goods will not get shipped. All of the clothes we wear and shoes on our feet are made over seas - no more ships to bring them here.

3) The global economy will die - billions of people will starve to death or be killed in the world war as countries fight for the remaining oil.

4) China and the US will likely end up in war fighting for oil and if their billions of people are not enough to finish us off, their nukes will (and ours will do them in too).

5) There is NO technology out there that can replace our dependance on oil. Everything out there either depends on oil to build or get or silver, uranium or platinum that is in such short supply that we would soon run out of that too. If we came up with a viable solution, it would take 25 to 50 years to make it widespread. Solar power and wind power is not enough, hydrogen cars require platinum (not enough), Shale oil and the oil in the sands of Canada is so expensive to extract and make usable oil would cost $50 a gallon, and so on!

6) The US reserve plus all the oil in Alaska could keep the US going for about 2 years then that would be gone too.

This list keeps going and the worse part is there is NO solution to the problems. If you have a bit of time on your hand, read the first two pages of the website. Then have a stiff drink, I know I did.

Flow

09-11-2005, 10:40 PM

yeah its very interesting

but I highly doubt that it will go in that exact direction...

Flow · 09-11-2005, 10:43 PM

I have never really thought about it until I heard the radio show. I do know I have heard for years that we will run out of oil in 2050 but never thought that it will be gradual decline and not a POOF your on empty type thing.

Doctor Dre · 09-11-2005, 10:44 PM

His website is impressive ...

impressive line :

10 calories of fuel fossil are needed to produce 1 calorie of food in the U.S.

broke · 09-11-2005, 10:47 PM

People have been talking about this for over 35 years...

Seems you're and he are a little late to the party.

Flow · 09-11-2005, 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Dre

His website is impressive ...

impressive line :

10 calories of fuel fossil are needed to produce 1 calorie of food in the U.S.

It is impressive until you think about it. A spoon full of ceral has about what 10 calaries in it. But a spoon full of gasoline probably has 10,000 or more. That one stuck out at me too until I though about it.

Rochard · 09-11-2005, 10:48 PM

I've read about this and also read the opposing stories.

I think.....
- The world is running out of oil, and we'll run out in the next 50 years.
- China's oil comsumption is rising, and it seems likely that the US and China would go to war over oil. However, I doubt this will happen because if China declares war on the US the Chinese economy instantly goes into the shitter.
- Sometime between now and when the oil runs out we'll come up with new forms of transportation. Our economy now depends on oil, but it didn't 100 years ago.

In the mean time I'm gonna get me a horse, just in case.

Flow · 09-11-2005, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by broke

People have been talking about this for over 35 years...

Seems you're and he are a little late to the party.

This is true, but at some point we have to get to the peak and when we do, look out! OIL WILL NOT LAST FOREVER!

Doctor Dre · 09-11-2005, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RocHard

I've read about this and also read the opposing stories.

I think.....
- The world is running out of oil, and we'll run out in the next 50 years.
- China's oil comsumption is rising, and it seems likely that the US and China would go to war over oil. However, I doubt this will happen because if China declares war on the US the Chinese economy instantly goes into the shitter.
- Sometime between now and when the oil runs out we'll come up with new forms of transportation. Our economy now depends on oil, but it didn't 100 years ago.

In the mean time I'm gonna get me a horse, just in case.

The world as we know now will change forever ... in a not-too-far future !

RawAlex · 09-11-2005, 10:51 PM

Let me just say that this guy has undoubtedly spent some time in Jamaica or perhaps Hawaii... smoking the good stuff.

There is still a big pile of oil down there, just much of it is in places that are not economically feasable to get to when oil is $20 a barrel. The Saudis just about scoop the stuff off the surface, the costs for exploitation are near zero. Compare that the the oil sands project in Canada (where oil has to be seperated out of a sort of rocky /s andy sludge).

This isn't a 10 year issue... maybe a 50 year issue.

Just as importantly, this guy assumes we will make no advances on any other front (including hydrogen, solar, and other renewable sources... plus old standby types like nuclear and things like coal).

It is a nice scare story, but it is the same story that has been touted for 20 years. It assumes NO CHANGE IN USE. It assumes that we will all ignorantly go along until we wake up one monday moring and all the gas stations are closed and the game is over.

Price of a barrel of oil is the deciding factor. It is still the cheapest "bang for the buck" out there... even at $60 a barrel. If it keeps going up, well... anyway... $50 gallon of gas would suggest a barrel of oil for about $1000. Things would change long before we all got to that point in the process. Other energy sources would be way more economical long before that happened.

Go look at the source for this information - look at his relationships to "green" organizations... the information is out there.

It's like asking Michael Jackson about mature relationships. He doesn't have a clue.

Flow · 09-11-2005, 10:52 PM

Kinda makes you rethink the REAL-REAL reason for the Iraq war huh?

The site does make reference to a few speeches that Bush and Cheney have made that reference an overall decline in worldwide oil production.

Doctor Dre · 09-11-2005, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by broke

People have been talking about this for over 35 years...

Seems you're and he are a little late to the party.

Don't you see the price fluctuating now ? it seems like it would be the time to talk about it ... and act

broke · 09-11-2005, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Dre

Don't you see the price fluctuating now ? it seems like it would be the time to talk about it ... and act

Well -- we've been talking about it for 35 years and I think the time to act was 40 years ago...

Better late than never, though. Heh?

Flow · 09-11-2005, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RawAlex

Let me just say that this guy has undoubtedly spent some time in Jamaica or perhaps Hawaii... smoking the good stuff.

There is still a big pile of oil down there, just much of it is in places that are not economically feasable to get to when oil is $20 a barrel. The Saudis just about scoop the stuff off the surface, the costs for exploitation are near zero. Compare that the the oil sands project in Canada (where oil has to be seperated out of a sort of rocky /s andy sludge).

This isn't a 10 year issue... maybe a 50 year issue.

Just as importantly, this guy assumes we will make no advances on any other front (including hydrogen, solar, and other renewable sources... plus old standby types like nuclear and things like coal).

It is a nice scare story, but it is the same story that has been touted for 20 years. It assumes NO CHANGE IN USE. It assumes that we will all ignorantly go along until we wake up one monday moring and all the gas stations are closed and the game is over.

Price of a barrel of oil is the deciding factor. It is still the cheapest "bang for the buck" out there... even at $60 a barrel. If it keeps going up, well... anyway... $50 gallon of gas would suggest a barrel of oil for about $1000. Things would change long before we all got to that point in the process. Other energy sources would be way more economical long before that happened.

Go look at the source for this information - look at his relationships to "green" organizations... the information is out there.

It's like asking Michael Jackson about mature relationships. He doesn't have a clue.

If you read all of the article he makes mention to all of the current alternatives out there and says there is not way to produce even close to the amount of energy from them that you get from oil.

And lets say it is 50 years, and major change in energy will take 25-50 years. So giving you the benefit of the doubt, we better start looking into that RIGHT NOW.

As far as the "green" organizations, he says they are the major reasons why it will take 50 years to get anywhere new because of all the damn tree huggers out there making things hard.

Doctor Dre · 09-11-2005, 10:57 PM

http://www.internethumorsucks.com/20...petropolitics/

read this

Flow · 09-11-2005, 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doctor Dre

http://www.internethumorsucks.com/20...petropolitics/

read this

They guy talked about this a bit too. Saying that lack of interest in the dollar will be the real reason our economy crashes because of the large national debt and our inability to repay it. He also made reference to personal debt too and how people will be losing their houses that much quicker if they can afford their debt.

Flow · 09-11-2005, 11:04 PM

The guy said the best way to fight this is to get the word out there. The national media will not cover it because it would cause mass riots and histeria.

GregE · 09-11-2005, 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by broke

People have been talking about this for over 35 years...

...and folks will be having similar conversations 35 years from now.

You'll all know when the oil is really running out. That'll be when the first hydrogen powered cars start coming off the assembly lines.

Spudstr · 09-11-2005, 11:10 PM

Quote:

2) People will not be able to afford to drive to work as gas will go up to over $50 a gallon due to shortages. Goods will not get shipped. All of the clothes we wear and shoes on our feet are made over seas - no more ships to bring them here.

you know we have nukes powering ships these days i don't see where a nuke powering a big ass frigate would be a problem.

Flow · 09-11-2005, 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregE

...and folks will be having similar conversations 35 years from now.

You'll all know when the oil is really running out. That'll be when the first hydrogen powered cars start coming off the assembly lines.

a) Hydrogen powered cars rely on platinum in their batteries. There is not enough platinum in the world to sustain the number of cars we have.

b) To create hydrogen to run those cars requires the use of oil and fossil fuel.

Flow · 09-11-2005, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spudstr

you know we have nukes powering ships these days i don't see where a nuke powering a big ass frigate would be a problem.

Like he said, even if we could find a nice way to use nuclear power, it would take 50 years to make it a reality if we started TODAY

Shoehorn! · 09-11-2005, 11:17 PM

That site has been posted here quite a few times. I have read that whole thing and have told a bunch of other people to read it too. Whether or not the end result will be that dramatic is anyones guess, but anyone who is famailar with any commodity will tell you that one day oil will run out, and we sure as fuck better have a plan for when that happens.

Flow · 09-11-2005, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shoehorn

That site has been posted here quite a few times. I have read that whole thing and have told a bunch of other people to read it too. Whether or not the end result will be that dramatic is anyones guess, but anyone who is famailar with any commodity will tell you that one day oil will run out, and we sure as fuck better have a plan for when that happens.

BINGO! This is what it is all about. But our politians are too worried about their rich oil buddies and the well funded oil lobbyists to even think about this!

chowda · 09-11-2005, 11:26 PM

chevron made ads claiming that it took over 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil and that the next trillion barrels will take 30 years.

im sure at some point when oil is at 9-10 dollars a gallon, the demand for hybrid/ electric cars will increase so much so that it would fuel spending into R&D into this sector.

So the US isnt the only ppl consuming more now, boohoohoo. Deal with it, get into re-useable energy.

Dont forget: US cant accomodate Social Security for the baby boomers. THATS the biggest problem

RawAlex · 09-12-2005, 06:32 AM

Please add this: current price of oil (adjusted for inflation) is similar to 1972ish. The price of oil still has not gone up really anything in over 30 years. In fact, we have spent 30 years with fairly massive oversupply.

If everyone in the US driving an SUV or pickup switched to driving a Honda Civic or Chevy Cobalt, the price of oil would drop through the floor - If 5% or 10% is the needed difference, the needed difference can be made.

When oil hits $100-$150, then we can start to talk about alternatives. Until then, it is cheap, cheap , cheap.

I don't disagree with some of the guy's points, but I totally don't agree with his "the sky is falling". Oily Chicken Little.

Rinaldo · 09-12-2005, 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RawAlex

Please add this: current price of oil (adjusted for inflation) is similar to 1972ish. The price of oil still has not gone up really anything in over 30 years. In fact, we have spent 30 years with fairly massive oversupply.

If everyone in the US driving an SUV or pickup switched to driving a Honda Civic or Chevy Cobalt, the price of oil would drop through the floor - If 5% or 10% is the needed difference, the needed difference can be made.

When oil hits $100-$150, then we can start to talk about alternatives. Until then, it is cheap, cheap , cheap.

I don't disagree with some of the guy's points, but I totally don't agree with his "the sky is falling". Oily Chicken Little.

I bought one have you?

Dollarmansteve · 09-12-2005, 07:46 AM

imagine how expensive that last barrell of oil will be. Eco101 - supply and demand. the world will never run out of oil, you read it here first.

09-11-2005, 10:37 PM	#1
Flow Confirmed User Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 518	Peak Oil: life after the oil crash So I was listening to AM radio last night (am I getting old or what) and there was this guy on the talk show talking about how in 5 to 10 years the world will hit this thing called PEAK OIL - where we cannot get any more oil than what we are getting at this point (i.e. the most oil ever used and cannot get more ever). This is NOT the point where we run out of oil, but a point where we start seeing annual declines in worldwide production of oil on the tune of 3-5% annually until about 2050 where we run out completely. This put together with 3-5% annual increases in worldwide oil consumption means really bad thing are going to happen if it really comes true. He said the 70's oil crisis was due to a 5% drop off in production so imagine a 10% shift. The show went on for 3 hours or more and I gotta say it scared me enough to visit his website and spend an hour reading the main two pages, which scared me even more. Here is the link if you want to take a look around: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net Basically (to quote the movie Armegedon) it's the worst parts of the Bible... 1) Every aspect of our culture is driven by oil. Not only for the cars we drive, the plane we ride in or the trucks that deliver our goods to Walmart in, but almost EVERY aspect of it. Pestisides/herbisides are made from oil, farm EQ realy on oil, electricity that we use in our homes depend on oil, water purifcation, national defense, and modern medines all depend on oil for production, and so on down the list... 2) People will not be able to afford to drive to work as gas will go up to over $50 a gallon due to shortages. Goods will not get shipped. All of the clothes we wear and shoes on our feet are made over seas - no more ships to bring them here. 3) The global economy will die - billions of people will starve to death or be killed in the world war as countries fight for the remaining oil. 4) China and the US will likely end up in war fighting for oil and if their billions of people are not enough to finish us off, their nukes will (and ours will do them in too). 5) There is NO technology out there that can replace our dependance on oil. Everything out there either depends on oil to build or get or silver, uranium or platinum that is in such short supply that we would soon run out of that too. If we came up with a viable solution, it would take 25 to 50 years to make it widespread. Solar power and wind power is not enough, hydrogen cars require platinum (not enough), Shale oil and the oil in the sands of Canada is so expensive to extract and make usable oil would cost $50 a gallon, and so on! 6) The US reserve plus all the oil in Alaska could keep the US going for about 2 years then that would be gone too. This list keeps going and the worse part is there is NO solution to the problems. If you have a bit of time on your hand, read the first two pages of the website. Then have a stiff drink, I know I did. Flow

09-11-2005, 10:47 PM	#5
broke Confirmed User Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Someplace Windy Posts: 4,501	People have been talking about this for over 35 years... Seems you're and he are a little late to the party. __________________ Perfect Gonzo

09-11-2005, 10:48 PM	#7
Rochard Jägermeister Test Pilot Industry Role: Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: NORCAL Posts: 74,001	I've read about this and also read the opposing stories. I think..... - The world is running out of oil, and we'll run out in the next 50 years. - China's oil comsumption is rising, and it seems likely that the US and China would go to war over oil. However, I doubt this will happen because if China declares war on the US the Chinese economy instantly goes into the shitter. - Sometime between now and when the oil runs out we'll come up with new forms of transportation. Our economy now depends on oil, but it didn't 100 years ago. In the mean time I'm gonna get me a horse, just in case. __________________ “The choice is no longer between right or left. The choice is between normal and crazy.” - Sarah Huckabee Sanders YNOT MAIL \| THE BEST ADULT MAILING SOLUTION

09-11-2005, 11:17 PM	#22
Shoehorn! Die With Your Boots On Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Hawaii Posts: 22,872	That site has been posted here quite a few times. I have read that whole thing and have told a bunch of other people to read it too. Whether or not the end result will be that dramatic is anyones guess, but anyone who is famailar with any commodity will tell you that one day oil will run out, and we sure as fuck better have a plan for when that happens. __________________

09-11-2005, 11:26 PM	#24
chowda Confirmed User Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Gooch city Posts: 9,527	chevron made ads claiming that it took over 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil and that the next trillion barrels will take 30 years. im sure at some point when oil is at 9-10 dollars a gallon, the demand for hybrid/ electric cars will increase so much so that it would fuel spending into R&D into this sector. So the US isnt the only ppl consuming more now, boohoohoo. Deal with it, get into re-useable energy. Dont forget: US cant accomodate Social Security for the baby boomers. THATS the biggest problem __________________ Someone finds you... 2007 PS: Nationalnet is the best host I've ever had. And i tried alot of them.

09-11-2005, 10:40 PM	#2
buddyjuf Guest Posts: n/a	yeah its very interesting but I highly doubt that it will go in that exact direction...

09-11-2005, 10:43 PM	#3
Flow Confirmed User Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 518	I have never really thought about it until I heard the radio show. I do know I have heard for years that we will run out of oil in 2050 but never thought that it will be gradual decline and not a POOF your on empty type thing.

09-11-2005, 10:51 PM	#10
RawAlex So Fucking Banned Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: In a house. Posts: 9,465	Let me just say that this guy has undoubtedly spent some time in Jamaica or perhaps Hawaii... smoking the good stuff. There is still a big pile of oil down there, just much of it is in places that are not economically feasable to get to when oil is $20 a barrel. The Saudis just about scoop the stuff off the surface, the costs for exploitation are near zero. Compare that the the oil sands project in Canada (where oil has to be seperated out of a sort of rocky /s andy sludge). This isn't a 10 year issue... maybe a 50 year issue. Just as importantly, this guy assumes we will make no advances on any other front (including hydrogen, solar, and other renewable sources... plus old standby types like nuclear and things like coal). It is a nice scare story, but it is the same story that has been touted for 20 years. It assumes NO CHANGE IN USE. It assumes that we will all ignorantly go along until we wake up one monday moring and all the gas stations are closed and the game is over. Price of a barrel of oil is the deciding factor. It is still the cheapest "bang for the buck" out there... even at $60 a barrel. If it keeps going up, well... anyway... $50 gallon of gas would suggest a barrel of oil for about $1000. Things would change long before we all got to that point in the process. Other energy sources would be way more economical long before that happened. Go look at the source for this information - look at his relationships to "green" organizations... the information is out there. It's like asking Michael Jackson about mature relationships. He doesn't have a clue.

09-11-2005, 10:52 PM	#11
Flow Confirmed User Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 518	Kinda makes you rethink the REAL-REAL reason for the Iraq war huh? The site does make reference to a few speeches that Bush and Cheney have made that reference an overall decline in worldwide oil production.

09-11-2005, 11:04 PM	#17
Flow Confirmed User Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 518	The guy said the best way to fight this is to get the word out there. The national media will not cover it because it would cause mass riots and histeria.

09-12-2005, 06:32 AM	#25
RawAlex So Fucking Banned Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: In a house. Posts: 9,465	Please add this: current price of oil (adjusted for inflation) is similar to 1972ish. The price of oil still has not gone up really anything in over 30 years. In fact, we have spent 30 years with fairly massive oversupply. If everyone in the US driving an SUV or pickup switched to driving a Honda Civic or Chevy Cobalt, the price of oil would drop through the floor - If 5% or 10% is the needed difference, the needed difference can be made. When oil hits $100-$150, then we can start to talk about alternatives. Until then, it is cheap, cheap , cheap. I don't disagree with some of the guy's points, but I totally don't agree with his "the sky is falling". Oily Chicken Little.

09-12-2005, 07:46 AM	#27
Dollarmansteve Confirmed User Join Date: May 2005 Location: T.O. Posts: 2,849	imagine how expensive that last barrell of oil will be. Eco101 - supply and demand. the world will never run out of oil, you read it here first. __________________ I died.