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Originally Posted by RawAlex
Let me just say that this guy has undoubtedly spent some time in Jamaica or perhaps Hawaii... smoking the good stuff.
There is still a big pile of oil down there, just much of it is in places that are not economically feasable to get to when oil is $20 a barrel. The Saudis just about scoop the stuff off the surface, the costs for exploitation are near zero. Compare that the the oil sands project in Canada (where oil has to be seperated out of a sort of rocky /s andy sludge).
This isn't a 10 year issue... maybe a 50 year issue.
Just as importantly, this guy assumes we will make no advances on any other front (including hydrogen, solar, and other renewable sources... plus old standby types like nuclear and things like coal).
It is a nice scare story, but it is the same story that has been touted for 20 years. It assumes NO CHANGE IN USE. It assumes that we will all ignorantly go along until we wake up one monday moring and all the gas stations are closed and the game is over.
Price of a barrel of oil is the deciding factor. It is still the cheapest "bang for the buck" out there... even at $60 a barrel. If it keeps going up, well... anyway... $50 gallon of gas would suggest a barrel of oil for about $1000. Things would change long before we all got to that point in the process. Other energy sources would be way more economical long before that happened.
Go look at the source for this information - look at his relationships to "green" organizations... the information is out there.
It's like asking Michael Jackson about mature relationships. He doesn't have a clue.
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If you read all of the article he makes mention to all of the current alternatives out there and says there is not way to produce even close to the amount of energy from them that you get from oil.
And lets say it is 50 years, and major change in energy will take 25-50 years. So giving you the benefit of the doubt, we better start looking into that RIGHT NOW.
As far as the "green" organizations, he says they are the major reasons why it will take 50 years to get anywhere new because of all the damn tree huggers out there making things hard.