Easy $5 for solving math problem. - GoFuckYourself.com

xxweekxx · 04-20-2005, 05:15 PM

First person to solve this correctly will get $5. I cant get the answer myself for this one..

An oil company purchased an option of land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities.
P(high qualith oil) = 0.60
P(medium quality oil) = 0.20
P(no oil) = 0.20

a. What is the probability of finding oil?(I know the answer, 0.80)

B. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test follow:

P ( soil | high quality oil) = .20
P(soil | medium-quality ) = 0.80
P(soil | no oil) = 0.20

How should the firm interpret the soil test? What are the revised probabilities, and what is the new probability of finding oil?

StuartD · 04-20-2005, 05:16 PM

the answer is "There's a 100% probability of finding ICE"

xxweekxx · 04-20-2005, 05:19 PM

lol

8char

thaifan99 · 04-20-2005, 05:34 PM

Oil will be $5 a gallon soon!

VeriSexy · 04-20-2005, 05:37 PM

Pick C

Rob · 04-20-2005, 05:39 PM

We'll just bomb them and take the oil.

Want my email addy to send the $5?

xxweekxx · 04-20-2005, 05:39 PM

!!!!!!!!! come on guys, $10 now

Rob · 04-20-2005, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaifan99

Oil will be $5 a gallon soon!

Damn, I'm paying almost $5 for 1 quart of Quaker State so that's a pretty damn good deal!

MrIzzz · 04-20-2005, 05:41 PM

do your own homework!!!!!!!!!!!!

WiredGuy · 04-20-2005, 05:48 PM

I'm waiting until its $20

Nicky · 04-20-2005, 05:48 PM

I can tell u 1 thing atleast, there is still 0,8 chance on finding oil....

WiredGuy · 04-20-2005, 05:53 PM

Ok, I'm in a good mood.
First off your first answer is wrong.

Quote:

a. What is the probability of finding oil?(I know the answer, 0.80)

It's not 0.80, you don't just add the first 2 probabilities and ignore the second set of data given. You need to multiply the 2 probabilities and then sum them up:

So, (0.60 * 0.20) + (0.20 * 0.80) + (0.20 * 0.20) = .12 + .16 + 0.4 = 0.68

So you actually have a 68% chance of discovering oil now.
PS: It's been 2 years since I did stats, so don't hold me to this answer. If you fail, its your own fault for not paying attention in class.

WG

paxton · 04-20-2005, 05:56 PM

a. P(finding oil) = 1 - p(no oil) = 1 - 0.20 = 0.80

b. Test interpretation: We can see the conditional probability for the medium quality oil goes up while the other two go down. That means doing such positive test can improve your chance to find the medium quality oil.

New probability of finding oil is 0.8125 (see below)

0.5 * 0.2 + 0.2 * 0.8 / 0.5 * 0.2 + 0.2 * 0.8 + 0.3 * 0.2 = 0.8125

Send the money to the charity of Mr.Izzz's choice, since after all he is right in saying that you should "do your own homework!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Is my answer right? Of course. I googled it. I have the source for this answer if needed.

fedfest · 04-20-2005, 05:59 PM

Eigther it's a missprint and it should have been .20 .60 .20 in wich case the probability is still .80
or..
probability 1.0 = they found oil

WiredGuy · 04-20-2005, 06:05 PM

The revised probabilities are now:
Note: P(finding oil) = my answer from part (a) = 0.68

P(high qualith oil) * P ( soil | high quality oil) / P(finding oil) = 0.1765
P(medium quality oil) * P(soil | medium-quality) / P(finding oil) = 0.2353
P(no oil) * P(soil | no oil) / P(finding oil) = 0.0588

WG

Icon · 04-20-2005, 06:08 PM

seven - the answer in seven

WiredGuy · 04-20-2005, 06:10 PM

OLD RESULTS (GIVEN):
P(soil | high quality oil) = .20
P(soil | medium-quality ) = 0.80
P(soil | no oil) = 0.20

NEW RESULTS (CALCULATED):
P(high qualith oil) * P ( soil | high quality oil) / P(finding oil) = 0.1765
P(medium quality oil) * P(soil | medium-quality) / P(finding oil) = 0.2353
P(no oil) * P(soil | no oil) / P(finding oil) = 0.0588

The firm should intepret the results as:
The conditional probability of finding high quality, medium quality and no oil have all dropped (although by different ratios).

WG

xxweekxx · 04-20-2005, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WiredGuy

Ok, I'm in a good mood.
First off your first answer is wrong.

It's not 0.80, you don't just add the first 2 probabilities and ignore the second set of data given. You need to multiply the 2 probabilities and then sum them up:

So, (0.60 * 0.20) + (0.20 * 0.80) + (0.20 * 0.20) = .12 + .16 + 0.4 = 0.68

So you actually have a 68% chance of discovering oil now.
PS: It's been 2 years since I did stats, so don't hold me to this answer. If you fail, its your own fault for not paying attention in class.

WG

Remember the second values werent given until question B..

QUestion A assumes u use the first set of values..

Babagirls · 04-20-2005, 06:36 PM

HUHHHHH??

xxweekxx · 04-20-2005, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paxton

a. P(finding oil) = 1 - p(no oil) = 1 - 0.20 = 0.80

b. Test interpretation: We can see the conditional probability for the medium quality oil goes up while the other two go down. That means doing such positive test can improve your chance to find the medium quality oil.

New probability of finding oil is 0.8125 (see below)

0.5 * 0.2 + 0.2 * 0.8 / 0.5 * 0.2 + 0.2 * 0.8 + 0.3 * 0.2 = 0.8125

Send the money to the charity of Mr.Izzz's choice, since after all he is right in saying that you should "do your own homework!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Is my answer right? Of course. I googled it. I have the source for this answer if needed.

Can i get the source?

Spunky · 04-20-2005, 06:39 PM

If I can't count on my fingers and toes ..forget it

04-20-2005, 06:44 PM

P ( soil | high quality oil) = .20
P(soil | medium-quality ) = 0.80
P(soil | no oil) = 0.20

how can that be? it adds up to 1.20, not 1...

paxton · 04-20-2005, 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xxweekxx

Can i get the source?

page 24...

http://www.1493.com.tw/upfiles/skill01100857753.pdf

My answer simply changes the variables in part (1) ... part (2) is the same as yours.

xxweekxx · 04-20-2005, 07:05 PM

Umm dude there is also another source with a totally different answer:
grr wtf..

4 of my friends got different answers for this. seems like the question is not 100% clear.

WiredGuy · 04-20-2005, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xxweekxx

Umm dude there is also another source with a totally different answer:
grr wtf..

4 of my friends got different answers for this. seems like the question is not 100% clear.

Welcome to Stats

No two people will get the same two answers, lol.
WG

xxweekxx · 04-20-2005, 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WiredGuy

Welcome to Stats

No two people will get the same two answers, lol.
WG

LOL ya there's 2 sources (Professors) with same question online, both of them have different answers,

WTF really

WiredGuy · 04-20-2005, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xxweekxx

LOL ya there's 2 sources (Professors) with same question online, both of them have different answers,

WTF really

Here's one where the question is almost worded identically (different numbers):

http://stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~pzhang/stat101/HW02.doc (Question on bottom)

http://stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~pzhan...01/HW02sol.doc (Answer on bottom).

Answers seem to be similiar to mine.
WG

xxweekxx · 04-20-2005, 07:54 PM

Ya but see

[What is the probability of a positive soil test?
P(+)=P(+ | high quality oil)* P(high quality oil)+P(+ | medium quality oil)* P(medium quality oil)+P(+ | no oil)* P(no oil)=0.32]

Im not looking for the PROBABILITY of a positive SOIL TEST...
Thats what you/they calculated.

Question says probability of finding oil.. So how can you include the probability of finding no oil into the calculation

woj · 04-20-2005, 07:58 PM

xxweekxx, you are a clown

xxweekxx · 04-20-2005, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woj

xxweekxx, you are a clown

Ya i am.lol i was gonna have u do it but i figured no way to verify your answer.. see what i mean??

so far 5 people got 5 diff answers

pxxx · 04-20-2005, 08:05 PM

Wow, i was a science person in high school, and still is. I hate math! Calculus wasn't as bad as many made it sound.

pornguy · 04-20-2005, 08:09 PM

The oil rig was shut down because Onook got into a fight with his wife, went postal, and killed 12 of the 16 employees!

cool1g · 04-20-2005, 08:25 PM

The answer is the two trains will take 2 hours before they crash into each other....wait...wrong college problem

Screaming · 04-20-2005, 08:33 PM

at least a .80% chance of finding some kind of oil, heh well i gave it a shot

tre sandman · 04-20-2005, 08:39 PM

wow! a lot of math wizards!!!

xxweekxx · 04-20-2005, 08:47 PM

I thought GFY was smart

BlueDesignStudios · 04-20-2005, 10:48 PM

is there still that $5 up for grabs??

WiredGuy · 04-20-2005, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xxweekxx

I thought GFY was smart

What gave you that impression? LOL
WG

Dalai lama · 04-20-2005, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xxweekxx

I thought GFY was smart

Think again.

SomeCreep · 04-20-2005, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xxweekxx

First person to solve this correctly will get $5. I cant get the answer myself for this one..

An oil company purchased an option of land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities.
P(high qualith oil) = 0.60
P(medium quality oil) = 0.20
P(no oil) = 0.20

a. What is the probability of finding oil?(I know the answer, 0.80)

B. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test follow:

P ( soil | high quality oil) = .20
P(soil | medium-quality ) = 0.80
P(soil | no oil) = 0.20

How should the firm interpret the soil test? What are the revised probabilities, and what is the new probability of finding oil?

After numerous calculations, I have concluded the answer is: Penis

04-20-2005, 05:15 PM	#1
xxweekxx Confirmed User Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 6,780	Easy $5 for solving math problem. First person to solve this correctly will get $5. I cant get the answer myself for this one.. An oil company purchased an option of land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities. P(high qualith oil) = 0.60 P(medium quality oil) = 0.20 P(no oil) = 0.20 a. What is the probability of finding oil?(I know the answer, 0.80) B. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test follow: P ( soil \| high quality oil) = .20 P(soil \| medium-quality ) = 0.80 P(soil \| no oil) = 0.20 How should the firm interpret the soil test? What are the revised probabilities, and what is the new probability of finding oil? __________________ _________________ I am the best

04-20-2005, 05:16 PM	#2
StuartD Sofa King Band Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Outside the box Posts: 29,903	the answer is "There's a 100% probability of finding ICE" __________________ This is me on facebook This is me on twitter

04-20-2005, 05:19 PM	#3
xxweekxx Confirmed User Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 6,780	lol 8char __________________ _________________ I am the best

04-20-2005, 05:34 PM	#4
thaifan99 Confirmed User Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: London UK Posts: 3,029	Oil will be $5 a gallon soon! __________________ ARE YOU A FAMILY MEMBER? CLICK HERE TO FIND OUT!

04-20-2005, 05:37 PM	#5
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04-20-2005, 05:39 PM	#6
Rob I'm a great bowler. Industry Role: Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Right Outside of Normal. Posts: 13,309	We'll just bomb them and take the oil. Want my email addy to send the $5? __________________

04-20-2005, 05:39 PM	#7
xxweekxx Confirmed User Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 6,780	!!!!!!!!! come on guys, $10 now __________________ _________________ I am the best

04-20-2005, 05:41 PM	#9
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04-20-2005, 05:48 PM	#10
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04-20-2005, 05:48 PM	#11
Nicky Too lazy to set a custom title Industry Role: Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Sweden Posts: 30,070	I can tell u 1 thing atleast, there is still 0,8 chance on finding oil.... __________________ gfynicky @ gmail.com

04-20-2005, 05:56 PM	#13
paxton Confirmed User Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 1,156	a. P(finding oil) = 1 - p(no oil) = 1 - 0.20 = 0.80 b. Test interpretation: We can see the conditional probability for the medium quality oil goes up while the other two go down. That means doing such positive test can improve your chance to find the medium quality oil. New probability of finding oil is 0.8125 (see below) 0.5 * 0.2 + 0.2 * 0.8 / 0.5 * 0.2 + 0.2 * 0.8 + 0.3 * 0.2 = 0.8125 Send the money to the charity of Mr.Izzz's choice, since after all he is right in saying that you should "do your own homework!!!!!!!!!!!!" Is my answer right? Of course. I googled it. I have the source for this answer if needed. __________________ Contact ICQ: 159141828

04-20-2005, 05:59 PM	#14
fedfest Confirmed User Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 1,334	Eigther it's a missprint and it should have been .20 .60 .20 in wich case the probability is still .80 or.. probability 1.0 = they found oil __________________ RewardThem Now Paying Up To 70% Revshare ! Top Converting CCbill affiliate program that will keep your members rebilling. No Traffic Leaks, No Popups, No Bullshit.. You get Credited For EVERYTHING !

04-20-2005, 06:05 PM	#15
WiredGuy Pounding Googlebot Industry Role: Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Canada Posts: 34,490	The revised probabilities are now: Note: P(finding oil) = my answer from part (a) = 0.68 P(high qualith oil) * P ( soil \| high quality oil) / P(finding oil) = 0.1765 P(medium quality oil) * P(soil \| medium-quality) / P(finding oil) = 0.2353 P(no oil) * P(soil \| no oil) / P(finding oil) = 0.0588 WG __________________ I play with Google.

04-20-2005, 06:08 PM	#16
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04-20-2005, 06:10 PM	#17
WiredGuy Pounding Googlebot Industry Role: Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Canada Posts: 34,490	OLD RESULTS (GIVEN): P(soil \| high quality oil) = .20 P(soil \| medium-quality ) = 0.80 P(soil \| no oil) = 0.20 NEW RESULTS (CALCULATED): P(high qualith oil) * P ( soil \| high quality oil) / P(finding oil) = 0.1765 P(medium quality oil) * P(soil \| medium-quality) / P(finding oil) = 0.2353 P(no oil) * P(soil \| no oil) / P(finding oil) = 0.0588 The firm should intepret the results as: The conditional probability of finding high quality, medium quality and no oil have all dropped (although by different ratios). WG __________________ I play with Google.

04-20-2005, 06:36 PM	#19
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04-20-2005, 06:39 PM	#21
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04-20-2005, 06:44 PM	#22
buddyjuf Guest Posts: n/a	P ( soil \| high quality oil) = .20 P(soil \| medium-quality ) = 0.80 P(soil \| no oil) = 0.20 how can that be? it adds up to 1.20, not 1...

04-20-2005, 07:05 PM	#24
xxweekxx Confirmed User Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 6,780	Umm dude there is also another source with a totally different answer: grr wtf.. 4 of my friends got different answers for this. seems like the question is not 100% clear. __________________ _________________ I am the best

04-20-2005, 07:54 PM	#28
xxweekxx Confirmed User Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 6,780	Ya but see [What is the probability of a positive soil test? P(+)=P(+ \| high quality oil)* P(high quality oil)+P(+ \| medium quality oil)* P(medium quality oil)+P(+ \| no oil)* P(no oil)=0.32] Im not looking for the PROBABILITY of a positive SOIL TEST... Thats what you/they calculated. Question says probability of finding oil.. So how can you include the probability of finding no oil into the calculation __________________ _________________ I am the best

04-20-2005, 07:58 PM	#29
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04-20-2005, 08:05 PM	#31
pxxx First African GFY Member Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: New Jersey Posts: 12,114	Wow, i was a science person in high school, and still is. I hate math! Calculus wasn't as bad as many made it sound.

04-20-2005, 08:09 PM	#32
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04-20-2005, 08:33 PM	#34
Screaming I can change this!!!!! Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 18,972	at least a .80% chance of finding some kind of oil, heh well i gave it a shot __________________

04-20-2005, 08:39 PM	#35
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04-20-2005, 08:47 PM	#36
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04-20-2005, 10:48 PM	#37
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