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OLD RESULTS (GIVEN):
P(soil | high quality oil) = .20
P(soil | medium-quality ) = 0.80
P(soil | no oil) = 0.20
NEW RESULTS (CALCULATED):
P(high qualith oil) * P ( soil | high quality oil) / P(finding oil) = 0.1765
P(medium quality oil) * P(soil | medium-quality) / P(finding oil) = 0.2353
P(no oil) * P(soil | no oil) / P(finding oil) = 0.0588
The firm should intepret the results as:
The conditional probability of finding high quality, medium quality and no oil have all dropped (although by different ratios).
WG
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I play with Google.
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