RRRED

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...irdflu15m.html

"Nationwide, the CDC predicts that in a "medium level" epidemic, as many as 100 million of the nation's 296 million people could be infected and 200,000 could die.

Around the globe, World Health Organization officials have variously estimated from 7 million to 100 million of the world's 6.4 billion people could die, but they say it is impossible to predict accurately.

County and state officials have an established early warning system for the deadly virus. Primary-care physicians are the primary sentinels.

Through repeated newsletters, they have been asked to report patients with flu symptoms who have recently traveled to countries where outbreaks of the disease have been reported: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam. "

galleryseek

the bird flu isn't going to do shit.

hydro

sprite + chicken soup + sleep + weed = no flue

aaron

WHAT IF WHAT IF WHAT IF ... one day at a time

Tala

Don't eat the chicken noodle soup!!!!!!

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hydro

oooooh yeaaaa heh. damn i love eating chicken

WiredGuy

I think this is nature's way of saying we should be vegetarians. Mad cow, bird flu, it doesn't end. Next thing you know, there's gonna be an outbreak in the fish.

WG

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RRRED

God no kidding.. where does it end? Don't eat the chicken, Don't eat the lettuce, Don't drink the water.. JEEZ

Since Cancun, I have turned into a total freak when it comes to bad sickness of any kind. I'd rather die burning in a fire or drowning or even beat to death than die from puking and the runs...

fünkmaster

JD

heard of red tide???

RRRED

That article says it can spread through pigs.. same thing. One guy that hopped on a plane from vietnam spread it all over somewhere it said and killed like 80K people... Its been a whole 20 min since I read it so I don't remember but you get my point lol..

WiredGuy

Actually, no I haven't.
WG

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KRL

Be a vegetarian as often as you can. Even having one meal a week that didn't involve killing an animal is something everyone should do.

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Major (Tom)

I eat shrimp chowmein once a week. Lots of veggies.
probally alot of msg though
Duke

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evanmorgan

didnt you hear, salad gives you cancer

2HousePlague

Gosh, I love stats.




The CDC (an American agency) predicts that as much as 1/3 of the US population could be infected, and that 0.2% of those could die.

That's 0.0676% of the US population = possibly dead.

At the same time, the WHO (an international agency) puts their worst-case-scenario death toll number FOR THE WHOLE

PLANET at a whopping 1.56%.

That's 23 X the effective death rate predicted for the US!


Here's the breakdown (in millions):

1. US: 296 x .34 = 100 (people infected) x .002 = 0.2 (people dead)
2. WHO: 6,400 x (?) = (?) (people infected) x (?) = 100 (people dead)

To figure out why 23 times more people (as a rate over total) are going to die in the world, versus in the US, we have two variables to consider: i.) infection rate and ii.) death rate among the infected.

To decide their relative influence as factors, we have to look at the ways those variables would be affected by conditions in the US versus the average of the conditions for the whole planet.

It makes sense that the infection-to-death rate would be lower in the US, for the higher-than-global-average availability and quality level of healthcare in America -- one would guess.

I suppose it's possible that the full 23X difference in net effective death rate could all be accounted for right there -- if you would answer "yes" to the question: "Are you (once infected) 23X more likely to die from this disease OUTSIDE the US than in?"

Maybe that's true.

Maybe the average distance-to-hospital is 23X longer. Maybe the average vaccine is 23X more dilute. Maybe the average level of physician competency is only 1/23.

But, since we would imagine that the number of infection vectors, and their lethality, would be greater in places with lower standards of hygiene, lower nutritional standards and less effective uptake of precautionary information (owing to higher rates of illiteracy in the Average World vs. the US), it's ALSO conceivable that the rate of primary infection would be much lower in America, because we're so much cleaner, better-fed and smarter here than the average of other places.


Clearly, there's a case for the involvement of BOTH variables in the 23X discrepancy.


So, for argument's sake, let's say the two variables were EQUALLY responsible -- err -- influential for the 23X difference, and that we should SPLIT the total net influence factor in order to guess at the "real" values for the whole world.

We'd have to divide a factor of 23X (a prime number) in "half" >>> and the square root 23 is about 4.8.


Now, let's bring our US numbers back to serve as baseline...


US: 296 x 0.34 = 100 (people infected) x .002 = 0.2 (people dead)


Applying a 4.8X factor to the above would give you...


WHOOPS... you CAN'T apply a factor of 4.8 to the primary infection rate, because that would give a higher rate of infection than we've got people on the whole planet -- 0.34 x 4.8 = 1.63 = 10.4 Billion of the Earth's 6.4 Billion would have to become infected for the EVEN SPLIT of effect between the two variables to work out.

Obviously, impossible.

Maaaaybe nooooow, it's starting to look like most (if not ALL) of the difference is coming from the infection-to-death rate difference -- hmmm.


Some "plausible" scenarios (in millions):


A. World: 6,400 x (weighted influence factor = 0X) = (.34) x = (2,176) (people infected) x (weighted influence factor = 23X) = (0.046) = 100 (people dead)

B. World: 6,400 x (weighted influence factor = 1.5X) = (.51) x = (3,264) (people infected) x (weighted influence factor = 15.5X) = (0.031) = 100 (people dead)

C. World: 6,400 x (weighted influence factor = 2.0X) = (.68) x = (4,352) (people infected) x (weighted influence factor = 11.5X) = (0.023) = 100 (people dead)...



I think you can see where this is going.


But, if not, let me tweak your perspective a little bit: TWO "EXPERTS" ARE GUESSING AT A HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO. ONE CONSIDERS THE WHOLE WORLD, THE OTHER, JUST HIS OWN BACKYARD. THE EXPERT OF NARROW SCOPE PAINTS A (COMPARATIVELY) ROSY PICTURE, EVEN IN HIS DESCRIPTION OF PROSPECTIVE TRAGEDY. THE BROADER EXPERT (WHOSE SCOPE ENCOMPASSES THE OTHER EXPERT'S SCOPE) CONFRONTS A CONSIDERABLY GRIMMER POSSIBILITY. THE ONE, THEN, AN OPTIMIST; THE OTHER, A PESSIMIST -- AT LEAST THAT'S THE WAY THEY APPEAR TO EACH OTHER FROM AFAR -- AND YET, THERE IS THE CHANCE (NO, THE LIKELIHOOD) THAT BOTH "EXPERTS" ARE RIGHT. LESSON: YES, THE TRUTH IS A FUNCTION OF WHERE YOU LIVE, BUT ALWAYS, ALWAYS A RELATIVE THING.


Ah, stats!





j-

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Manowar

the sky is falling. I'd rather enjoy life than fear something the whole word are trying to solve.

Rui

hopefully...

Vitasoy

Theres more things to worry about then a bird flu.

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JD

it's this weird bacteria shit that gets in the shellfish up here (WA) I don't know if it happens else where but it happens here every couple years and it usually kills a bunch of people.

Sam Granger

What Are The Symptoms?

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