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Old 02-08-2005, 01:30 AM   #1
erehwon
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Hot stock tip anyone?

I will forwarn you, this is long but worth it if you're looking for a hot prospect!

Remember me if you make anything from this, it was just such a heads up like this that I made stupid money from Iridium.

There is a wireless company called Motient in Lincolnshire that trades on
the bulletin boards with a market capitalization of over $1B!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MNCP.PK

Who has even heard of them locally? I know that there are some hedge funds
invested in them, and they bought a firm that has a very favorable deal
with the FCC and bandwidth allocation.

I went to their site and did a bit of checking. My source here at Bear
Stearns is a very smart guy, I can tell you that, and he knows how to read
financials, but he probably does not want his name used here.

A company that has $50MM in revenue (roughly) and a $1B market cap but
trades on the pink sheets and is in Lincolnshire is unusual, you would have
to admit!

The website only lists one analyst now, Igor Volshteyn. I called him and he
is now on the Investment Banking side of the house. The research analyst
handling the stock is Chris Roberts of Tejas Securities Group, Inc., (512)
306-5257. I spoke to Chris and he explained what is going on with the stock.

Chris explained that the value in Motient and the reason for the huge stock
price increase since November is the expanded spectrum that they now have
rights to.

The first key date was November 8, 2004, Chris said. And guess what folks,
the next key date is February 10, 2005, coming up next week!!!

Chris elaborated: They own a significant chunk of wireless spectrum orders
from FCC. The line has been blurred between satellite spectrum and cellular
and broadband spectrum. Motient invested in MSV several years ago.
November 8, 2004, was the big day, and the bigger date, Roberts says,
is next week when they finalize the order Feb. 10th.

The stock has gone from $10/share to $30/share since November. I asked
Chris if the stock is undervalued even at $30/share and he said that yes,
it is. The stock is trading at a 70% discount to traditional spectrum sale
transactions and if the deal goes through, it could jump up significantly.

The stock could be worth three times what it trades at now, Chris
explained. Here is how he arrived at that number. If you value Motient's
spectrum relative to Verizon and other carriers, that is how you get the
undervaluation of Motient. Recent transactions have been at $2/MHz per POP
(Population), an example that Chris cited being Verizon.

"Right now, Motient trades at fifty cents per MHz per POP, about a 75%
discount," Roberts said.

The real opportunity is to sell the spectrum that may be worth billions and
they may sell it to a major carrier and let them build it out, he
indicated, since it is very costly to do your own build-outs.

So, how did Motient come to own this additional spectrum?, I asked Chris.
He said that MSV was originally a satellite company and they petitioned the
FCC to add a cell phone component. So, they can offer voice service and
with a satellite. "You get ubiquitous coverage from NYC to LA and where the
cell drops off the satellite picks up," he said. No one else has that
capability, he said.

So when you look at the revenue and the financials, consider that the real
business is the specturm holdings.

If you are interested, check it out yourself or consult an expert, but
please don't take my word for anything like this. And remember that Chris
Roberts' point about the cost of spectrum transactions may be a long way
from translating into stock price.

I asked Chris if there is anything that could prevent the order from going
through on the 10th of February. He said that other entities such as
Cingular have expressed a concern for the ruling because it represents more
competition. Cingular has lobbied the FCC to kill the ATC order and it has
not succeeded in the past.
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Old 02-08-2005, 01:31 AM   #2
bringer
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thanks for the tip, i hope it pays off
just bought 10,000 shares because someone on gfy told me it was good
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Old 02-08-2005, 01:36 AM   #3
spunkmaster
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Look at United Airlines (UALAQ)

They are at $1.22 but should be $25

They reason they are down is because they went BK but have
pulled out of it.

The Gov't is going to bail out the retirement problems
they have been having which is keeping their stock down.
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Old 02-08-2005, 01:48 AM   #4
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I have a better tip buy low sell high
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