Anybody else confused why Bush still leads in the polls?

[xNetworx]

I thought for sure Kerry would be projected to win by now. I guess more than half the country are wealthy and/or religious red necks that only care about abortion laws and gun rights when it comes time to vote. Its sad.

[jimmyf]

NO


Bush by 10 points

[GiantGnome]

nope http://start.earthlink.net/newsarticle?cat=0&aid=1018114537_breakingnews_stor y

[Rich]

Not at all, polls always learn right in the US. Gallup counts republicans 8 to 6 because they consider them to be more likely to vote. When they say a poll of "likely voters", that's what they mean. They had Bush up 8 points overall going in to 2000 and he lost the popular vote. They also do not count newly registered voters, which the democrats are signing up in record numbers. Bush has very little chance of winning an honest election, but with the Es and S and Diebold voting machines counting some swing states, who knows what's going to happen.

[Rinaldo]

it's who they're poling... don't worry too much yet

[loverboy]

i wouldn't worry about polls, its kinda deceiving

we will just see how it goes when we start counting the actual votes

[ChandieGirl]

I couldn't agree more. I just saw that in 3 polls, Bush
is the projected winner. Unbelievable.

What is worse is that a projected 38% of
eligible voters will NOT vote in this election.

Sadly, that is even a 10% increase over the 2000
elections when Americans decided that Bush was fit
to run our country. Only 52% of eligible voters made their
way to the polls that day.


Why would someone choose to not actively involve
themselves in a decision as important as a presidential election?

[CybermedAndy]

Ya I'm quite flabbergasted, actually.

[TheJimmy]

Originally posted by Rich
Not at all, polls always learn right in the US. Gallup counts republicans 8 to 6 because they consider them to be more likely to vote....

so in other words...you loungin' liberals, put down the pipe and get to the VOTING BOOTH on election day!






PS: Bush is going downnnn

[directfiesta]

Kerry will still loose

I am listening to Bush now, and people are cheering ( his macho remarks) or bouoing ( what he says Kerry said)...

Looks like a 9 year's old class reunion...

Americans like it simple and easy, and it can't get easier and simplistic than Bush.

[Centurion]

If you think the popular vote polls are confusing..take a look at the latest project electoral vote! Kerry now leads Bush, and states that weren't in play 1 week ago now are..on both sides!

http://electoral-vote.com

[Manowar]

Go Kerry

[tranza]

Originally posted by Manowar
Go Kerry

[AlienQ - BANNED FOR LIFE]

Bush leads 52-44 percent among likely voters in a Gallup Poll taken for CNN and USA Today from Thursday through Saturday, up from 49-46 after the second debate.

Bush leads 50-44 among likely voters in a Newsweek Poll conducted Thursday and Friday.

Bush leads 50-46 in a tracking poll of likely voters taken Wednesday through Saturday for ABC News, up from 48-48 in the Tuesday-Friday period.

Now consider those sources
Hello???

Shit even Sinclair is amoung that crap excuse for polling sources.

[adjektiv]

Originally posted by pimpporn
I thought for sure Kerry would be projected to win by now. I guess more than half the country are wealthy and/or religious red necks that only care about abortion laws and gun rights when it comes time to vote. Its sad.

Please leave the voting up to people who know the difference between its and it's you tard.

[Theo]

funny thing I just received a similar blog post from volokh.com

Posted by Jim Lindgren:
Who will win--Bush or Kerry? --

I have been surprised by the betting consensus at
[1]www.Tradesports.com (inconsistent link) and elsewhere that Bush is
more likely to win the election. [2]Kaus notes that this belief in a
Bush victory, which shows up in opinion polls, might cause people to
"go with the winner." I don't understand why both the bettors and the
general public believe this.

Whether this belief in a Bush victory helps Bush or not, I think it
unwarranted. I am aware that there will probably be an unpredictable
swing one way or the other that will erase the current situation, such
that predictions today are little more than speculations.

Nonetheless, as things stand right now, I would guess that Kerry is
more likely to win Ohio than Bush (Kerry slightly [3]leads in 3 of the
last 4 polls), though within the margin of error. Further, Kerry
[4]leads slightly (within the margin of error) in polls in
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Hampshire, Maine, and
Oregon--and leads probably outside the margin of error in most polls
in New Jersey and Michigan. I understand that there may be a very
slight [5]move in Bush's favor right now, but I expect that to stop or
reverse.

First, as in 2000, I expect a last minute swing toward the Democrats.
I think that Bush might lose a couple percent in the last two weeks,
whether it is from any late surprise (like Bush's DUI in 2000), or the
incredible automated phone calling that occurred last time (which
because of the messages tended to help the Democrats), or the latest
theme of the week (this week, I think that will be tying Bush to the
third rail of politics: social security reform). Further, the
conventional wisdom is that undecideds tend to break against the
incumbent.

Second, I expect a massive voter turnout from people who want to stop
Bush at all costs. There were hints of this in the primary turnouts.

Third, my impression is that the Democrats signed up many more new
voters than the Republicans.

On the other side (favoring a Bush win) is any Republican last minute
surprise. Second is a phenomenon that KerrySpot noted a few days
ago--that particularly in [6]2002 election, the opinion polls
underestimated Republican vote shares, probably because of a slight
realignment since 9/11.

The wild card is the action of Al Qaeda. If they step up their attacks
in Iraq or pull off a major attack in the US a few days before the
election, it is hard to predict what the American public would do.
They might turn to Bush because there have been no major attacks in
the US in the 3 years since 9/11 (an outcome that I wouldn't have
given more than a 5% chance to 3 years ago) and because (rightly or
wrongly) Americans trust Bush more than Kerry on the War on Terror. On
the other hand, if the attack is in the US and comes from one of the
sources that Kerry quite rightly hammered Bush on in the first debate
(ship containers or the cargo holds of US planes), then the electorate
might turn to Kerry. Further, who knows how emotions can turn people's
minds; perhaps a new horror will make people long for a time when
terrorism was just a nuisance and see Kerry as the man who shares
their view of the world.

I don't disagree that the election is too close to call. What I do
think is that, if the election were held today, it is slightly more
likely that Kerry would win than Bush. But then the election will not
be held today.

Some bloggers have made their predictions on the outcome, some
confident, some highly qualified. Most bloggers that I read have not
made predictions.

I'm curious about what other bloggers think about the likely winner
(and why). At least by the evening before the election, I hope that
people will weigh in with their opinions.

References

1. http://www.tradesports.com/
2. http://slate.msn.com/id/2108107/#landslide
3. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bus...erry_sbys.html
4. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bus...erry_sbys.html
5. http://slate.msn.com/id/2108328/
6. http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/...0410140840.asp

[sickkittens]

Originally posted by pimpporn
I thought for sure Kerry would be projected to win by now. I guess more than half the country are wealthy and/or religious red necks that only care about abortion laws and gun rights when it comes time to vote. Its sad.

I think it's hard to change what party people vote for. The big concerns really affect a small percentage of those who vote.

[StuartD]

Originally posted by AlienQ
Bush leads 52-44 percent among likely voters in a Gallup Poll taken for CNN and USA Today from Thursday through Saturday, up from 49-46 after the second debate.

Bush leads 50-44 among likely voters in a Newsweek Poll conducted Thursday and Friday.

Bush leads 50-46 in a tracking poll of likely voters taken Wednesday through Saturday for ABC News, up from 48-48 in the Tuesday-Friday period.

Now consider those sources
Hello???

Shit even Sinclair is amoung that crap excuse for polling sources.

Yeah, but CNN still thought that Bush won those debates despite almost 80% of people voting for Kerry as the winner.

[NoCarrier]

Reuters/Zogby Tracking Poll

Oct 14-16

Bush 45%

Kerry 45%

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...nkePI&refer=us