Election question - GoFuckYourself.com

freeadultcontent · 10-17-2004, 03:53 PM

I know electorial college and such, skipping over that.

Since I am in California which is far from a battleground state, we have had virtually no presidential advertising, visits, etc. We are one of the many "already decided" states, or at least that is how it is displayed in the media and such.
I have been following everything very closely though and one thing has particularly struck me that both candidates seem to be ignoring. New voter registration went absolutely batshit, talking record daily numbers. Seeing that voter registration is way up, logic would dictate that this election may have the largest voter turn out percentage in recent history.
Could this not in theory turn literally any state into a potential swing state? Since most of the map predictions and such are centered around previous voter histories, which also are based on very poor voter turn out.

pornstar2pac · 10-17-2004, 03:55 PM

too many many people live in Cali. You would need a swing of millions of voters to change the outcome here.

Libertine · 10-17-2004, 03:55 PM

Actually, many polls are now based on registered voters instead of likely voters ("did you vote last time?"), and that kinda solves the problem.

freeadultcontent · 10-17-2004, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by pornstar2pac
too many many people live in Cali. You would need a swing of millions of voters to change the outcome here.

Not limiting it to just california, I would reason that if we are seeing record new voter registrations then many other states are too.

freeadultcontent · 10-17-2004, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by punkworld
Actually, many polls are now based on registered voters instead of likely voters ("did you vote last time?"), and that kinda solves the problem.

Yes I know that as well, but most polls just ussually meet the scientific minimum for number of people polled, 500 to 1000 or so.

Has anyone seen any polls that just polled newly registered voters?

Libertine · 10-17-2004, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by freeadultcontent
Yes I know that as well, but most polls just ussually meet the scientific minimum for number of people polled, 500 to 1000 or so.

Has anyone seen any polls that just polled newly registered voters?

The scientific minimum makes it unnecessary to poll just newly registered voters. If newly registered voters made a significant difference, the statistic method used would catch the effects of that.

freeadultcontent · 10-17-2004, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by punkworld
The scientific minimum makes it unnecessary to poll just newly registered voters. If newly registered voters made a significant difference, the statistic method used would catch the effects of that.

It is why I am asking, very unsure how some of all this works.

Libertine · 10-17-2004, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by freeadultcontent
It is why I am asking, very unsure how some of all this works.

Well, if the participants of polls are chosen completely randomly, and a large enough amount is chosen, the results are extremely accurate.

Try this link to see how it works in practice:
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

freeadultcontent · 10-17-2004, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by punkworld
Well, if the participants of polls are chosen completely randomly, and a large enough amount is chosen, the results are extremely accurate.

Try this link to see how it works in practice:
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

That is pretty nifty. Still hard to entirely wrap my head around it though.

EscortBiz · 10-17-2004, 04:09 PM

ill see what i can do

10-17-2004, 03:53 PM	#1
freeadultcontent Confirmed User Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: "evitcepsrep ruoy egnahc" Posts: 9,976	Election question I know electorial college and such, skipping over that. Since I am in California which is far from a battleground state, we have had virtually no presidential advertising, visits, etc. We are one of the many "already decided" states, or at least that is how it is displayed in the media and such. I have been following everything very closely though and one thing has particularly struck me that both candidates seem to be ignoring. New voter registration went absolutely batshit, talking record daily numbers. Seeing that voter registration is way up, logic would dictate that this election may have the largest voter turn out percentage in recent history. Could this not in theory turn literally any state into a potential swing state? Since most of the map predictions and such are centered around previous voter histories, which also are based on very poor voter turn out. __________________ Exclusive Ethnic & Microniche Sites

10-17-2004, 03:55 PM	#2
pornstar2pac Omaha Hi/Lo Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 17,380	too many many people live in Cali. You would need a swing of millions of voters to change the outcome here. __________________ Trump haters gonna hate. that's all they can do

10-17-2004, 03:55 PM	#3
Libertine sex dwarf Join Date: May 2002 Posts: 17,860	Actually, many polls are now based on registered voters instead of likely voters ("did you vote last time?"), and that kinda solves the problem. __________________ /(bb\|[^b]{2})/

10-17-2004, 04:09 PM	#10
EscortBiz Fuck Checks, CASH only! Join Date: May 2002 Location: New York City Posts: 19,422	ill see what i can do __________________ Spanking, Medical Fetish, Sleeping, Strap-on Anal Lesbians, Girls Fucking Guys, Handjob site REAL HOT, Shemales, Anal and Ass Licking sites 100% Real EXCLUSIVE with amazing retention, ccbill payouts, lots of content FREE FTP HOSTING Promote the largest and oldest member paid escort site, Converts 10 times better then any dating site, CCBill payouts ICQ# 158802076