From a mainstream blog: "Economy shifting to millions of niches" - GoFuckYourself.com

ADL Colin · 07-13-2005, 04:31 AM

Biography

I'm Chris Anderson, editor-in-chief of Wired Magazine. I wrote The Long Tail, which first appeared in Wired in October 2004 and will become a book, published by Hyperion, in early 2006.

The Long Tail is about how our economy and culture is shifting from mass markets to million of niches. The term refers to the yellow part of the sales chart at left, which shows a standard demand curve that could apply to any industry, from entertainment to hard goods. The vertical axis is sales; the horizontal is products. The red part of the curve is the "hits", which have dominated our markets and culture for most of the last century. The yellow part is the non-hits, or niches, which is where the new growth will come.

The article (and the forthcoming book) is about the effect of the technologies that have made it easier for consumers to find and buy niche products, thanks to the "infinite shelf-space effect"--the new distribution mechanisms, from digital downloading to peer-to-peer markets, that break through the bottlenecks of broadcast and traditional bricks and mortar retail.

The two big points of the Long Tail theory are these: 1) The yellow part potentially extends forever to the right; 2) The area under that line--the aggregate market of niches it represents--may become as big as the hits at the left.

The Wikipedia entry on the Long Tail does an excellent job of expanding on this.

The shift from hits to niches is a rich seam, manifest in all sorts of surprising places. This blog is where I'm going to collect everything I can about it.

By the way, there is no better way to spend $10 than to subscribe to Wired. But don't take my word for it. It's the wisdom of the crowd.

http://longtail.typepad.com/about.html

jayeff · 07-13-2005, 06:19 AM

I may not have read enough of the site yet, but my initial impression is that the author is implying that businesses which start in the "long tail" stay there. If so, then that is surely a serious flaw in the concept.

For example. Until about twenty years ago, for most people coffee was just coffee. When Howard Schultz came back from Italy and persuaded Starbucks to open their first coffee bar, it would have been considered part of the "long tail". Thousands of people have bright ideas every day and join the long tail, where most remain in obscurity, until they eventually quit.

And when a Howard Schultz does come along, his success shifts the balance of the graph only temporarily. By the time he impacts on those already catering to the mass market of which his business is a niche, his business would then be considered as catering to the mass market too. Between his success and others jumping on the bandwagon (including some of the existing big companies), overall balance is largely restored.

It also struck me that he didn't take consumer pyschology into account. Most people are desperate to conform and are rarely ever buyers of niche products. So as products shift from their initial niche to the mass market, they are usually made bland enough for mass consumption, which sends their original consumers searching for new niche products. The long tail may ebb and flow, but there are many forces working to keep the total picture broadly the same.

I was also dubious about the underlying principle that the Internet, by making it practically possible for people to buy products not available in their local stores, will cause a significant shift from mass to niche markets. First because it is fast becoming as difficult and/or expensive to get exposure on the Internet as it is on Main Street. But mainly because as we know from our own industry, as soon as anyone gets the scent of an idea with potential, hundreds are on it overnight (including successful mass marketers). When they judge right, by definition, that will no longer be a niche market.

The long tail may grow a little longer. But the main impact of electronic commerce will be to increase the number of companies moving from one side of the graph to the other, and for some, make the transition quicker that it would normally have been in the bricks and mortar world.

CashLikeWhoa_Mike · 07-13-2005, 06:43 AM

interesting information. thanks

llporter · 07-13-2005, 08:06 AM

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07-13-2005, 04:31 AM	#1
ADL Colin Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Tube Titans, USA Posts: 11,929	From a mainstream blog: "Economy shifting to millions of niches" Biography I'm Chris Anderson, editor-in-chief of Wired Magazine. I wrote The Long Tail, which first appeared in Wired in October 2004 and will become a book, published by Hyperion, in early 2006. The Long Tail is about how our economy and culture is shifting from mass markets to million of niches. The term refers to the yellow part of the sales chart at left, which shows a standard demand curve that could apply to any industry, from entertainment to hard goods. The vertical axis is sales; the horizontal is products. The red part of the curve is the "hits", which have dominated our markets and culture for most of the last century. The yellow part is the non-hits, or niches, which is where the new growth will come. The article (and the forthcoming book) is about the effect of the technologies that have made it easier for consumers to find and buy niche products, thanks to the "infinite shelf-space effect"--the new distribution mechanisms, from digital downloading to peer-to-peer markets, that break through the bottlenecks of broadcast and traditional bricks and mortar retail. The two big points of the Long Tail theory are these: 1) The yellow part potentially extends forever to the right; 2) The area under that line--the aggregate market of niches it represents--may become as big as the hits at the left. The Wikipedia entry on the Long Tail does an excellent job of expanding on this. The shift from hits to niches is a rich seam, manifest in all sorts of surprising places. This blog is where I'm going to collect everything I can about it. By the way, there is no better way to spend $10 than to subscribe to Wired. But don't take my word for it. It's the wisdom of the crowd. http://longtail.typepad.com/about.html __________________ Adult Date Link - $50 PPS starting NOW! -- good and JUICY! skype = "adultdatelink"

07-13-2005, 06:43 AM	#3
CashLikeWhoa_Mike Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,202	interesting information. thanks __________________ --Making serious money for our online partners since 2001-- --Home of the Best Converting Solo Ethnic Girls on the Net-- --ICQ me anytime at 637426291 for help--

07-13-2005, 06:19 AM	#2
jayeff Confirmed User Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 2,944	I may not have read enough of the site yet, but my initial impression is that the author is implying that businesses which start in the "long tail" stay there. If so, then that is surely a serious flaw in the concept. For example. Until about twenty years ago, for most people coffee was just coffee. When Howard Schultz came back from Italy and persuaded Starbucks to open their first coffee bar, it would have been considered part of the "long tail". Thousands of people have bright ideas every day and join the long tail, where most remain in obscurity, until they eventually quit. And when a Howard Schultz does come along, his success shifts the balance of the graph only temporarily. By the time he impacts on those already catering to the mass market of which his business is a niche, his business would then be considered as catering to the mass market too. Between his success and others jumping on the bandwagon (including some of the existing big companies), overall balance is largely restored. It also struck me that he didn't take consumer pyschology into account. Most people are desperate to conform and are rarely ever buyers of niche products. So as products shift from their initial niche to the mass market, they are usually made bland enough for mass consumption, which sends their original consumers searching for new niche products. The long tail may ebb and flow, but there are many forces working to keep the total picture broadly the same. I was also dubious about the underlying principle that the Internet, by making it practically possible for people to buy products not available in their local stores, will cause a significant shift from mass to niche markets. First because it is fast becoming as difficult and/or expensive to get exposure on the Internet as it is on Main Street. But mainly because as we know from our own industry, as soon as anyone gets the scent of an idea with potential, hundreds are on it overnight (including successful mass marketers). When they judge right, by definition, that will no longer be a niche market. The long tail may grow a little longer. But the main impact of electronic commerce will be to increase the number of companies moving from one side of the graph to the other, and for some, make the transition quicker that it would normally have been in the bricks and mortar world.

07-13-2005, 08:06 AM	#4
llporter Confirmed User Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Boston Posts: 3,221	Ah yes -- time for me to start my left-handed midgets who love to j/o while watching Brazilian blondes with big booties have anal sex with large nigerian men blog. Niche heaven!