GoFuckYourself.com - Adult Webmaster Forum - View Single Post - From a mainstream blog: "Economy shifting to millions of niches"

jayeff · 07-13-2005, 06:19 AM

I may not have read enough of the site yet, but my initial impression is that the author is implying that businesses which start in the "long tail" stay there. If so, then that is surely a serious flaw in the concept.

For example. Until about twenty years ago, for most people coffee was just coffee. When Howard Schultz came back from Italy and persuaded Starbucks to open their first coffee bar, it would have been considered part of the "long tail". Thousands of people have bright ideas every day and join the long tail, where most remain in obscurity, until they eventually quit.

And when a Howard Schultz does come along, his success shifts the balance of the graph only temporarily. By the time he impacts on those already catering to the mass market of which his business is a niche, his business would then be considered as catering to the mass market too. Between his success and others jumping on the bandwagon (including some of the existing big companies), overall balance is largely restored.

It also struck me that he didn't take consumer pyschology into account. Most people are desperate to conform and are rarely ever buyers of niche products. So as products shift from their initial niche to the mass market, they are usually made bland enough for mass consumption, which sends their original consumers searching for new niche products. The long tail may ebb and flow, but there are many forces working to keep the total picture broadly the same.

I was also dubious about the underlying principle that the Internet, by making it practically possible for people to buy products not available in their local stores, will cause a significant shift from mass to niche markets. First because it is fast becoming as difficult and/or expensive to get exposure on the Internet as it is on Main Street. But mainly because as we know from our own industry, as soon as anyone gets the scent of an idea with potential, hundreds are on it overnight (including successful mass marketers). When they judge right, by definition, that will no longer be a niche market.

The long tail may grow a little longer. But the main impact of electronic commerce will be to increase the number of companies moving from one side of the graph to the other, and for some, make the transition quicker that it would normally have been in the bricks and mortar world.

07-13-2005, 06:19 AM
jayeff Confirmed User Join Date: May 2001 Posts: 2,944	I may not have read enough of the site yet, but my initial impression is that the author is implying that businesses which start in the "long tail" stay there. If so, then that is surely a serious flaw in the concept. For example. Until about twenty years ago, for most people coffee was just coffee. When Howard Schultz came back from Italy and persuaded Starbucks to open their first coffee bar, it would have been considered part of the "long tail". Thousands of people have bright ideas every day and join the long tail, where most remain in obscurity, until they eventually quit. And when a Howard Schultz does come along, his success shifts the balance of the graph only temporarily. By the time he impacts on those already catering to the mass market of which his business is a niche, his business would then be considered as catering to the mass market too. Between his success and others jumping on the bandwagon (including some of the existing big companies), overall balance is largely restored. It also struck me that he didn't take consumer pyschology into account. Most people are desperate to conform and are rarely ever buyers of niche products. So as products shift from their initial niche to the mass market, they are usually made bland enough for mass consumption, which sends their original consumers searching for new niche products. The long tail may ebb and flow, but there are many forces working to keep the total picture broadly the same. I was also dubious about the underlying principle that the Internet, by making it practically possible for people to buy products not available in their local stores, will cause a significant shift from mass to niche markets. First because it is fast becoming as difficult and/or expensive to get exposure on the Internet as it is on Main Street. But mainly because as we know from our own industry, as soon as anyone gets the scent of an idea with potential, hundreds are on it overnight (including successful mass marketers). When they judge right, by definition, that will no longer be a niche market. The long tail may grow a little longer. But the main impact of electronic commerce will be to increase the number of companies moving from one side of the graph to the other, and for some, make the transition quicker that it would normally have been in the bricks and mortar world.