Why do you say that? What if the odds are 1 in 10 to the 200 per second that non-living matter will become something that we would call life? Then it shouldn't have happened and it won't likely happen again. Maybe if it's 1 in 10 to the 100 then it should have happened once (here we are!)

Now I'm not saying I believe the odds are that low. I have no idea. Why do we have any reason to believe it is more likely 1 in 10 to the 50th, 100th, 200th, or even 400th?

The fact that we are here is not evidence of anything.

Maybe the Universe is crawling with life. Maybe there is life in every solar system. We have no idea.

thats why im saying the odds are 1:2 due to our limited knowledge or brain capabilities... (its maybe, maybe not.. based on different theories)



Thats for the scientific aspect of it...

But there's one way to be able to answer your question about probabilities and it is to prove that aliens have visited this earth... Just watch some shows on TLC and you'll see that there's strong evidences proving it that only the ones with weak judgement will refuse to aknowledge...
Im thinking about that belgium goverment and army candidly showing proofs, recorded radar evidences, etc... for exemple

Yeah, there are shows about statues of Jesus in Central America that cry blood and also about the apparition of Virgin Mary appearing in fields. Some people would say that you have "weak judgement" if you don't believe what they believe. Are you a believer? Why or why not?

Want the number of technological civilizations in the universe?
Here: <i>N = R_* f_p n_ef_l f_i f_cL,</i> <i>R_*</i>
Now just go and fill in the variables, and you're done.


And for everyone that has an opinion about this: You're probably wrong. We have no way yet to know what the probability of life spontaneously developing is, and have not yet been able to recreate the event in labs. So, until we know that, you can say very little about chances of alien civilizations existing.

Ok, here's a quick exemple... Your mother, father and brother saw an apparition of your late grandmother... they all heard the same think.. long phrases, etc.., saw the same thing... colors etc... No one was high or drunk.. They tell you about it with great emotions.. your mother is even crying... What are the odds that this really happened? What are the other explanations? Mass allucination? Which is a concept 10x more eccentric and improbable that the idea of human having a soul...

So do you have a tangible proof that this happened? No! However, with your judgement, adding one and one... you'll come to the conclusion that the chances that it really happened are probably 99%.... In my book, that is a reasonable proof... in a court of law, thats a reasonable probability to send your ass in jail...

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Drake Equation? Not really useful without f_l.

Like you I have no opinion on the odds.

So I'm assuming then that not only do you believe in alien visitors but also Jesus, God, Allah, Vishnu, and ghosts. How many people claim to have witnessed miracles or "felt God"? Mass hallucination?

haha.. felt God? I think your are confusing alot of things...

What you see in some Church about people going to trence is purely mental... like having some sort of orgasm.. elavated stae of mind... nothing paranormal... Mass allucination where people all see THE SAME EXACT THING is an eccentric concept that as never proven.. (and its also extremely rare.. I would be curious if you have any exemple of them)

And concerning mass hallucination, can I ask you why a sceptic would now accept to believe a concept/theory that as never been proven? Because it sounds scientific?

And you didnt responded to my exemple... what would be your conclusion? Mass alucination? And will you be able to explain how can mass hallucination happen?

You say they "all see THE SAME EXACT THING". This is not surprising as none of the "observers" are independent. There's an entire "alien" industry of people selling alien bumper stickers, dolls, books, key chains, antenna balls, figures, and so forth. It's like a mass marketed religion. If I wanted to make up an alien abduction story I know exactly what to say to fit in with the other farmers. ;-)

In the middle ages there were thousands of people that claimed to have been abducted by demons and devils. Now, you'll probably say something silly like those demons were actually aliens. From my point of view, it shows that this sort of thing does happen without it actually happening.

(Sorry, I don't believe in demons or devils).

Remember that millions of people the world over have claimed to see various images of an apparitional Mother Mary. These sightings have been going on for hundreds of years. You can find all kinds of websites with information on them. Do you believe those? Why or why not?

I did not read all the other posts.

If you think life only exists on earth you need to grow up.

The thing that bothers me most about the whole UFO culture is the pictures. Take a look at the pictures taken from the 1940s and 1950s. They are horrible. They are nothing more than a reflection of the science fiction at the time. Really poor looking vehicles. Hard to believe they could even fly.

50 years later, the pictures look like our science fiction today. Note that the change parallels the technological change in our own society and movie industry. Somehow the alien's technology
moves in step with ours.

If this keeps up, you'd think the aliens will be building stealth ships soon - like the United States. Maybe this means an end to the UFO sightings. I doubt it.

Ghosts are another one. Millions of people have claimed to have seen the spirit of dead people walking around. I don't believe that either. Does show that such mass sightings occur when people can read about and hear about each other's stories.

Drake equation with a typo, actually :) (or rather, a copy-o, as in I copied the ,R* at the end, which doesn't belong there)


Ofcourse it isn't useful. We don't know any of the variables right now, and some are not possible to know (for instance, n_e stands for the number of planets per star that are able to sustain life. however, as long as we don't know all possible lifeforms, we don't know what kinds of planets can sustain life).