Adult Industry Collapse: Why a Click Isn’t Worth More Than a Cent

[BAKO]

What brokers and publishers don’t seem to understand is that the adult industry is already collapsing. They’ve squeezed margins to the point where there’s zero room left for anyone to make money. Traffic that once had value is now worth less than $0.01 per click and even at that rate, it’s barely profitable.

On top of this, restrictions across the UK and several U.S. states are accelerating the decline, making an already unsustainable market completely unworkable.

The truth is, the adult industry is dying and soon it will be completely gone. This doesn’t include platforms like OnlyFans, but the broader adult ad ecosystem is finished. The reality is simple: brokers need to stop enabling publishers who overcharge. If traffic costs more than a penny per click, it’s not worth buying. At that point, the only logical move is a collective boycott.

[2MuchMark]

Hi Bako,

I'm pretty sure that you are right when you say the broker model is struggling...

...But I wouldn’t go as far as saying the adult industry is dying. What’s really happening is that the money is shifting. The broker ecosystem is shrinking, but direct-to-consumer platforms like OnlyFans, clip stores, and performer sites are thriving because they cut out the middlemen. Demand for adult content isn’t disappearing, it’s just changing where the profits go.

As for the idea of a collective boycott, that'll never happen. Publishers, creators, advertisers etc are too fragmented for that to ever hold.

Instead, the market tends to correct itself as people stop buying traffic that doesn’t convert and move their focus toward sources that do. Buying traffic is always a huge gamble no matter what conversion rates are promised, or expected. It used to work for me a long time ago, but not anymore.

The industry has always evolved in cycles like this, and while it’s tough right now, it isn’t the end.

Cheers!

[Publisher Bucks]

Originally Posted by 2MuchMark

...But I wouldn’t go as far as saying the adult industry is dying. What’s really happening is that the money is shifting. The broker ecosystem is shrinking, but direct-to-consumer platforms like OnlyFans, clip stores, and performer sites are thriving because they cut out the middlemen. Demand for adult content isn’t disappearing, it’s just changing where the profits go.

Agreed.

This same cycle happens every 5-10 years (or at least used to in the 'golden' days).

Link directories to lists, to TGPs, to MGPs to Toplists, to AVS sites, to TGP2, to higher content free sites, to tubes, to higher content movie sites, clipstores, etc, etc, etc...

Its the nature of the beast, I'm sure in a few years we're going to see a migration away from platforms such as OF to something new too, at which point we'll see OF creators bitching they don't make any money.

Like most things in life, the adult industry is cyclical, all its going to take it some company to 'invent' the next new thing and things will shift again.

The real issue the industry has is that its become so watered down and clique it is now reactionary, rather than progressive as it used to be, the industry used to innovate, from things like vapes, to scripts and designs, not so much these days.

[2MuchMark]

Originally Posted by Publisher Bucks

Agreed.

This same cycle happens every 5-10 years (or at least used to in the 'golden' days).

Link directories to lists, to TGPs, to MGPs to Toplists, to AVS sites, to TGP2, to higher content free sites, to tubes, to higher content movie sites, clipstores, etc, etc, etc...

Its the nature of the beast, I'm sure in a few years we're going to see a migration away from platforms such as OF to something new too, at which point we'll see OF creators bitching they don't make any money.

Like most things in life, the adult industry is cyclical, all its going to take it some company to 'invent' the next new thing and things will shift again.

The real issue the industry has is that its become so watered down and clique it is now reactionary, rather than progressive as it used to be, the industry used to innovate, from things like vapes, to scripts and designs, not so much these days.

^* This ^*

[Huggles]

Originally Posted by BAKO

The truth is, the adult industry is dying and soon it will be completely gone.

[Jman]

I totally agree with you, we could almost include dating, which, in our case, surfers got burnt so hard by greedy owners that the trust factor is gone.

With that said, what I’m noticing now, though, is with my shift into AI.

The real stickiness isn’t in selling another membership, it’s in giving people tools to create and explore. With AI, you’ve got users who aren’t just clicking and leaving — they’re learning, experimenting with prompts, playing with LoRAs, building their porn fantasies, stories and galleries. You can add to that chat, voice and now full NSFW clips.

Retention feels completely different. Instead of the old model of “get a click, get a rebill, hope they forget,” it’s actually fun and engaging — people are interacting with their imagination, not just their d*ck. That’s why I think this lane has legs; it’s new, it’s addictive in a different way.

[lockept93]

IMO with OnlyFans, adult biz become more mainstream and get more "acceptence". Today "whores" are more often seen as big influencers. See people like Sophie Rain and co., they are not 100% seen like pornstars back in the days. This whole OF stuff enable people to spend 20$ for an access to videos, that would never ever had spend 20$ to buy a naughty DVD.

I see more a 2nd spring for adult biz, than a downfall.

[ravo]

I don't think the adult industry is collapsing, but it's certainly evolving.

Yes, some traffic values have decreased, but, over time, they will find their correct and natural levels. If it's 1 cent/click, so be it.

But, I see many traffic buys going for much more than that. I have lots of campaigns that have been renewed month after month after month for over the 20 cent/click range. It's all about performance versus cost, and not necessarily the absolute price per click.

It's a traffic broker's job to find the correct price, which involves negotiation with both buyer and seller. This is the value that brokers bring. It's more than about pure price. It's structuring the deal so that it works for both buyer and seller.

I would neve boycott any seller or buyer - all traffic has value. It's just finding the right place for it.

[fuzebox]

Originally Posted by BAKO

If traffic costs more than a penny per click, it’s not worth buying. At that point, the only logical move is a collective boycott.

Do you know where I can buy traffic for a penny a click

[datingmaster]

Funny, I just did an email buy, and the return was 1 cent per click. Purchase cost 15 cents per click. LOL

[BAKO]

Originally Posted by fuzebox

Do you know where I can buy traffic for a penny a click

[BAKO]

Originally Posted by datingmaster

Funny, I just did an email buy, and the return was 1 cent per click. Purchase cost 15 cents per click. LOL

Most of the remaining media buyers in the industry today are either large adult companies or individuals who leveraged inside knowledge and went independent. I’ve experienced this firsthand, as a few of my own employees followed that path. These situations are, to some extent, inevitable in such a competitive landscape. However, the reality is that genuine, independent adult media buying affiliates have become exceedingly rare if they exist at all.

[datingmaster]

Originally Posted by BAKO

Most of the remaining media buyers in the industry today are either large adult companies or individuals who leveraged inside knowledge and went independent. I’ve experienced this firsthand, as a few of my own employees followed that path. These situations are, to some extent, inevitable in such a competitive landscape. However, the reality is that genuine, independent adult media buying affiliates have become exceedingly rare if they exist at all.

Quality of traffic is an issue, too. It's a kind of circle jerk hiding behind presumptuous names

'The mega source' 'the magnificent blablabla' this isn't 2010.

Brokers who want $5000 upfront to sell you shit that will never make any money unless you resell it higher, maybe.

As the saying goes: The cure for high prices is high prices.

[plsureking]

Originally Posted by 2MuchMark

The industry has always evolved in cycles like this, and while it’s tough right now, it isn’t the end.

ya i agree 100%

we've seen the end times before.

traffic consolidated to the major players like OF and the tubes, but the tubes are getting slammed now by age verification.

so that was about a 10 year fuckover/theft of the industry. a lot of producers quit and the models went to OF. i'm seeing producers creep back in tho.

the heart and root of this industry has always been love and fetish. doing what you love and providing content for people like you.

the corporate dickheads took over and pushed numbers instead of love. now they are moving on, many over to the AI bubble.

if you produce content about your passions, and connect with other people who love the same thing, you can always make money in adult - and at least as much or more than the average model on OF.

generic mainstream porn has always been a hard sell and the tubes made it free. drop a load on a model in a forest? that is for sure a unique fetish (and sounds kinda German).

we still have a lot of runway in this industry and sales are coming back. the question is who will hang on for the next high? many producers are burnt out.

#porncms

[ross bleustein]

yes, we have some challenging times with traffic, but I am seeing CPM's now as high as I have seen in a long time..

I am also seeing more mainstream guys like Monster / Stubhub advertising on adult sites


so who knows ???

[BAKO]

Here are some recent stats testing gay pop traffic for cams. CPM cost $1.84

121 714 clicks 5 Free registrations 1 verified Cost me $222 to get 5 free emails and 1 verified without a spend. Tell me if this is even worth anything at this point. Simple test result

[TubesBooster]

In my opinion, the adult industry will not disappear, it is just changing and you have to adapt. There have always been restrictions against adult content, but it has always survived. Adult content is changing, as are its sales methods. The days of TGP/MGP, picposts, and link lists are over. It used to be unthinkable for an amateur model to be on live cams, but now? They all sell content... take advantage of this opportunity.

[mopek1]

Originally Posted by TubesBooster

They all sell content... take advantage of this opportunity.

So you are saying that pushing OF as an affiliate is the way forward?

[WiredGuy]

Originally Posted by BAKO

Here are some recent stats testing gay pop traffic for cams. CPM cost $1.84

121 714 clicks 5 Free registrations 1 verified Cost me $222 to get 5 free emails and 1 verified without a spend. Tell me if this is even worth anything at this point. Simple test result

Was this CamBuilder / Streamate by chance?
WG

[xxxclusive]

Because indian traffic spamming tubes and social media number of followers and clicks aren't worth anything anymore.

That's why great products are more important than ever.

[Huggles]

Originally Posted by plsureking

the corporate dickheads took over and pushed numbers instead of love.

Have you seen what has happened to professional wrestling?

Never been more soulless

[datingmaster]

Originally Posted by Huggles

Have you seen what has happened to professional wrestling?

Never been more soulless

Joey, do you like movies about gladiators?